# This Hasn't Happened In 16 Years...
**Date:** 2026-10-16  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPC_5X04KAs)

## Main Thesis
The semiconductor sector is showing extreme weakness with an 8-day losing streak, the worst in 16 years, creating significant concern. However, the broader market is being held up by the resilient Magnificent Seven stocks, creating a conflicted environment with valid arguments for both bulls and bears.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. Tesla (TSLA) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 372 after-hours, 400 resistance

Following the unveiling of a 'flying car' Roadster, Tesla stock went up 3% in after-hours trade, trading at 372. Atkinson notes this could be a catalyst event to get more people talking about the stock, but it is not yet through the psychological number of 400.

### 2. CoreWeave Bonds (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** 79 cents on the dollar

The bonds are trading at 79 cents on the dollar, causing yields to be over 15%. This indicates that credit markets are not agreeing with optimistic statements from Nvidia's CEO and are pricing in real concerns of potential future defaults.

### 3. TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** support

TSM reported strong earnings with 41% revenue growth YoY and an unchanged FY26 outlook. As one of the most important semiconductor stocks, its performance could stabilize the market. The stock came down and hit a support level, seeing big volume and ending down 1.8%.

### 4. Semiconductors (Sector) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** 540 put support
**Historical Comparison:** Worst losing streak in 16 years (8 consecutive days down).

The semiconductor sector has had eight consecutive trading days down, the worst streak in 16 years. Historical data on similar streaks shows that markets often take time to structure up afterwards. The sector dropped from a fib area and came into put support, which was at 540.

### 5. KOSPI (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** lows last reached during July
**Historical Comparison:** The rate of change is close to the lows seen in the pre-2000s, which was followed by a dead cat bounce and then lower lows.

The KOSPI plunged over 20% in the last seven trading days, slamming straight into the lows last seen in July. The rate of change is near historical lows. While past instances were near ultimate bottoms, Atkinson notes it's a limited data set.

### 6. US 10-Year Treasury (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Mean reversion

CTA positioning is 'super sold' and the Z-score is also 'super sold', suggesting an extreme. Following a recent magazine cover asking if bonds will crash, treasuries have actually gone up, suggesting a potential relief rally or mean reversion.

### 7. SPYV (S&P 500 Value ETF) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** resistance

SPYV became the new number one in transaction volume. The first and sixth largest transactions occurred near the highs in almost the exact same area, suggesting significant Wall Street activity in value stocks.

### 8. Tech vs Defensives Ratio (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Peaking period
**Historical Comparison:** The ratio has reached the same level as the 2000s dot-com peak.

The ratio of technology stocks compared to defensive stocks has reached a peak level equivalent to what was seen during the dot-com boom in 2000, suggesting a potential topping period for tech.

### 9. Bitcoin (BTC) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 80k-81k support, 82k resistance
**Historical Comparison:** Current point in the halving cycle has previously been close to the bottom.

Bitcoin has seen bids off the 'node' in the 80k to 81k range, a level it has held multiple times. It took out a low and came back into this node. Atkinson is watching for a move above 82k and finds the crypto charts interesting moving forward.

### 10. BofA High Yield (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH

Atkinson calls this the 'canary' coming out. He notes that traditionally when this index goes higher, equity markets have been slumping. He finds the current market extremely resilient considering this signal.

### 11. Tanker Shipping ETF (3-month)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Parabolic
**Key Levels:** $20, $900
**Historical Comparison:** Looks like semiconductors and hardware stocks from about 6 months ago.

This ETF is described as 'insanely parabolic', having gone from around $20 to $900. This is leading to higher fuel prices.

### 12. Treasuries (TLT) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Mean reversion
**Key Levels:** 20 weekly moving average

Treasuries had a good session, up 1.37%. They are getting very close to the 20 weekly moving average, suggesting a mean reversion rally after sentiment became so negative.

### 13. KRE (Regional Banks) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH

The market is pressuring the banks, and the KRE remains 'quite low', indicating continued weakness in this sector.

### 14. SpaceX (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 135 put support

The stock dropped, took out a low, and then rallied in after-hours trading. It is still around the midpoint of its prior gap up. A key level to watch is 135, which is related to puts.

### 15. Oil Futures (UK Oil) (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Indecision (dojis)

UK Oil dropped and then rebounded off the bottom, forming several dojis which indicate indecision just underneath a previous peak. The chart is still strong with higher highs and higher lows, suggesting oil is not weak yet.

### 16. Gold (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Wyckoff / Base

Gold has stabilized as yields dropped. Atkinson questions if it is forming a Wyckoff accumulation pattern or some other form of base, but notes there has been no breakout yet.

### 17. Silver (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 5550 support

Silver bounced off a massive fall into the 5550 level and is 'holding on for dear life' there.

### 18. DXY (US Dollar Index) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

The dollar spiked on CPI, then dropped, and held the same area on PPI. Atkinson is watching closely to see if it will make a lower low.

### 19. KOSPI Futures (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** most traded zone / POC

The futures dropped right into the most traded zone (Point of Control) based on a volume profile, which makes sense as a place for it to try and stop. However, he calls the downward move a 'freight train' and urges patience before assuming a bottom.

### 20. CoreWeave (Stock) (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** support line

The stock keeps pressuring a similar support line with big transaction volume and a lot of retail interest, which he finds concerning.

### 21. Magnificent Seven (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Higher highs and higher lows

This group of stocks has held up nicely and is still in a structure of higher highs and higher lows. Atkinson calls it the 'backbone' that is holding the markets up.

### 22. QQQ (Nasdaq 100) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** most traded area

In premarket, the Qs hit the 'most traded area' and rebounded off it. While some timeframes were lost, it held this key area.

### 23. S&P 500 (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** midpoint

The S&P 500 came down into its 'midpoint', hit that level, and rallied off. The futures chart shows a higher low, indicating the market remains intact for now.

### 24. Hynix (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** support

Called the 'poster child of loss', Hynix has finally stopped its decline at a technical support level. However, Atkinson is very cautious, describing the downtrend as a 'freight train' and questioning the strength of the support.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a conflicted state. There's a clear bifurcation between the strength of mega-cap tech (Magnificent Seven), which is holding the major indices up, and significant weakness in other areas like semiconductors, regional banks (KRE), and the South Korean market (KOSPI). Intermarket signals are also mixed: rising high-yield spreads and parabolic shipping costs suggest economic stress, while falling Treasury yields are providing some relief. A key comparison is the tech vs. defensives ratio reaching levels not seen since the 2000 dot-com peak, suggesting tech leadership may be at an extreme.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Be warned that higher diesel and petrol prices could be coming very quickly as oil charts remain strong.
- The NASDAQ could be the key to what happens with markets over the coming weeks and months.
- Be careful trying to buy the dip in assets like semiconductors and the KOSPI, as their downward momentum is like a 'freight train' despite hitting support levels.
- Markets are starting to turn volatile into the back end of October.
- The next couple of weeks of earnings will be critical to watch, as companies have so far not been upgrading future guidance, which the market wants to see.

## All Instruments Mentioned
Semiconductors, CoreWeave, South Korean market, KOSPI, tanker shipping, Tesla, TSLA, SpaceX, bonds market, Nvidia, TSM, US 10-Year Treasury, SPY, QQQ, S&P 500, NASDAQ, SPYV, Tech vs Defensives Ratio, Bitcoin, BTC, BofA high yield, MOVE index, triple C grade junk bonds, Oracle, Treasuries, TLT, Qs versus Spy, information tech, communication services, financials, KRE, home construction, MAG stocks, Hong Kong market, XLE, Oil futures, US oil, UK oil, Gold, Silver, US dollar, DXY, Kospi futures, Magnificent Seven, S&P futures, Ethereum, ETH, Hynix

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-10-27 23:10:17*