# This Has Only Happened 2 Times Before...
**Date:** 2026-02-04  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N13VCn-p-60)

## Main Thesis
The market is showing signs of late-cycle behavior with a rotation out of big tech into defensive and commodity-based stocks, similar to periods before past market corrections. While earnings are generally good, underlying market breadth is weakening, and key technical levels are being tested, suggesting increased volatility and a stock-picker's market rather than a broad index rally.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. XLK/XLP (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 1.71 support
**Historical Comparison:** similar to dot-com crash and 2025 tariff tantrum

The chart shows the ratio of the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) to the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP). The speaker highlights that this ratio has only dropped significantly twice before: just before the dot-com crash and before the 2025 tariff tantrum. The current chart shows a potential head and shoulders pattern, with the price breaking below the 1.71 support level, indicating further weakness in tech relative to staples.

### 2. Gold (XAU) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** bounce off demand zone
**Key Levels:** 4339.28 strong demand zone, 5040.44 current price

Gold is shown bouncing off a strong demand zone around 4339.28. The speaker notes that gold and silver have bounced off levels discussed in previous videos. The current price is around 5040.44, indicating a recovery after a sharp drop.

### 3. Silver (XAG) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** bounce off demand zone
**Key Levels:** 72.8190 demand zone, 86.9341 current price

Silver is shown bouncing off a demand zone around 72.8190. The current price is around 86.9341, indicating a recovery. The speaker mentions that silver, like gold, has bounced off levels discussed previously.

### 4. SPX (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rejection at resistance
**Key Levels:** 7000 resistance, 5669.94 gap fill, 5395.18 gap fill

The S&P 500 chart shows a rejection at the 7000 level. The speaker emphasizes the importance of this zone and notes that the market has hit and rejected 7000 once again. There are also 'gap fill' levels marked at 5669.94 and 5395.18 below the current price.

### 5. S&P 500: XLP up +2% while XLK down -2% (historical)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Historical Comparison:** similar to dot-com crash (2000s) and 2025 tariff tantrum

This chart presents historical data on the S&P 500's performance after a specific market condition: XLP (Consumer Staples) is up +2% while XLK (Technology) is down -2%. This has happened a couple of times before, notably before the dot-com crash in the 2000s and before the 2025 tariff tantrum. The data table below the chart shows that in these past instances, the S&P 500 tended to have negative returns in the subsequent 6, 9, and 12 months, with a high percentage of negative outcomes, suggesting a potential problem on the horizon.

### 6. S&P 500 Sector Performance Year-to-Date (year-to-date)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** sector rotation

This chart illustrates sector performance year-to-date, comparing 'Stock Market' (Cap-Weighted Return) with 'Market of Stocks' (Average Stock Return). It shows that big tech stocks (Technology, Communication Services) have been selling off, while defensive sectors like Energy, Materials, Consumer Staples, Industrials, Utilities, and Healthcare have been rallying. This indicates a flight of big money from growth to defensive stocks, a slowdown in the 'Magnificent 7' since the Federal Reserve's cuts in September of last year, and a broadening of the market, which is often seen in a late-cycle environment.

### 7. Weekly ETF Flows (rolling one week)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** capital flows

This bar chart shows weekly ETF flows by category. It highlights continued buying in U.S. large-cap stocks (likely retail investment) and significant global investment, especially into Asian and emerging markets. The speaker suggests that while a broadening market can seem positive, it often signals a late cycle where financials come under pressure and growth stocks become 'flaky'.

### 8. Magnificent Seven Stocks vs. S&P 500 (December 2025 - February 2026)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** divergence, weakening leadership

This line chart tracks the performance of the 'Magnificent Seven' stocks (Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, NVIDIA, Tesla) against the S&P 500. It shows that Microsoft has been 'getting floored' and declining significantly this year. NVIDIA and Tesla are also starting to get shaky, and Meta, despite a recovery, might be giving up some of its gains. This indicates a weakening leadership in the market, with the biggest tech stocks underperforming the broader S&P 500.

### 9. S&P 500: Hindenburg Omen signal (2020-2028)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Hindenburg Omen clusters
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 2021 highs and previous crashes (e.g., Global Financial Crisis)

This chart displays the S&P 500 with vertical lines indicating Hindenburg Omen signals. The speaker reminds viewers that these signals, especially in clusters, can precede significant market problems. The table below shows historical S&P 500 performance after Hindenburg Omen signals, with many negative returns in the subsequent months, particularly when signals cluster. This suggests a potential for significant pullbacks.

### 10. US Unemployment Rate vs. US Heavy Truck Sales (1984-2025)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** divergence, economic weakness
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 2001 recession and Great Financial Crisis

This chart plots the U.S. Unemployment Rate (blue line) against U.S. Heavy Truck Sales (orange line, reversed). The speaker highlights that falling truck sales, as seen currently, have historically pointed to a spike in the unemployment rate, preceding recessions (2001) and financial crises (Great Financial Crisis). This suggests a potential weakness in the economy, especially with the new Fed Chair's plan to tighten liquidity.

### 11. S&P 500 - Quarterly EPS Estimates (Q1 2025 - Q4 2025)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** upward revisions

This chart shows S&P 500 quarterly EPS estimates, which have generally been stellar and continue to rise. The speaker notes that while earnings have been good, the market's reaction to them, especially for big tech, is crucial. The image includes a 'Pied Piper' figure, implying that the market is being led by these earnings.

### 12. S&P 500 when at least 7 1-year highs in the past 3 months, while NASDAQ 100 has no 1-year highs (1985-2025)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** divergence, market concentration

This chart shows the S&P 500's performance when it has made at least 7 one-year highs in the past 3 months, but the NASDAQ 100 has made no one-year highs. This indicates a divergence where the broader market is strong, but tech leadership is absent. The table below shows that in such instances, the S&P 500 has often seen negative returns in the subsequent 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. The speaker notes that the S&P 500 is heavily concentrated in tech (37% from top 10 stocks), making this divergence particularly concerning.

### 13. IGV (Software ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** consecutive down days

This chart shows the IGV (Software ETF) and the number of consecutive down days. The speaker highlights that IGV has been dropping consistently for some time. The table below shows historical performance after 6 consecutive down days for IGV, indicating that while there might be short-term bounces, the overall trend can be negative. This suggests that leadership (software) is turning into weakness.

### 14. Palantir US Commercial Revenue (Dec 2021 - Dec 2025 (quarterly))

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong revenue growth

This bar chart shows Palantir's U.S. Commercial Revenue in millions of dollars, demonstrating strong and consistent growth. The speaker notes that Palantir had very solid earnings and is doing very well, with gains that are 'absolutely stellar' and 'unbelievable results'.

### 15. PayPal Q4 FY25 Income Statement (Q4 FY25)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** poor earnings reaction

This Sankey diagram illustrates PayPal's Q4 FY25 income statement. The speaker points out that PayPal's results were 'not so unbelievable' and the stock went down around 20%. This highlights the market's harsh reaction to missed expectations, even if overall earnings are good.

### 16. AMD Q4 FY25 Income Statement (Q4 FY25)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** poor earnings reaction

This Sankey diagram shows AMD's Q4 FY25 income statement. While AMD had pretty good revenue and a slight beat, the stock did not react well and was down about 6% in after-hours trading. This reinforces the idea of a 'sell day' across most semiconductors and tech stocks.

### 17. Most Anticipated Earnings Releases (Week of Feb 02, 2026)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

This table lists the most anticipated earnings releases for the week of February 02, 2026. The speaker emphasizes that the focus will be on 'what is happening to the American consumer', which can be observed through the XLY (Consumer Discretionary) versus XLP (Consumer Staples) ratio. Key companies releasing earnings include Alphabet, ARM, Qualcomm, Snap, and Amazon.

### 18. Earnings Releases by Implied Movement (Week of Feb 02)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

This chart shows earnings releases by implied movement for the week of February 02. The speaker notes that the XLY/XLP ratio actually broke down and below over the last 24 hours, indicating a 'fairly big day' for that indicator. This reinforces the concern about the American consumer.

### 19. ARKK (ARK Space Exploration & Innovation ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** dark pool trade
**Key Levels:** 34.00 resistance, 31.00 support

The ARKK ETF chart shows a 'number one dark pool' trade that pushed ARKK up. The speaker notes that this ETF, focused on space exploration and innovation, is seeing a lot of confidence due to potential IPOs of companies like SpaceX. However, the speaker also suggests it's more of a trade than a long-term investment.

### 20. GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** bounce after drop
**Key Levels:** 4321.65 massive support

The GLD chart shows a couple of large trades and gold recovering after a drop, making back about 50% of the fall. The speaker maintains a macro bullish bias on gold, noting that when a currency war starts, it tends to continue for decades. The massive support level is at 4321.65.

### 21. Silver Spot $/Oz Outside Week Reversal Pattern (1967-2026)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** outside week reversal
**Historical Comparison:** historical data from 1967

This chart shows the Silver Spot price with red dots indicating 'Outside Week Reversal Down' patterns. The table below provides historical data on silver's performance after such signals. The speaker notes that while some recoveries occur, most of the time, a quick bounce is followed by a period of decent consolidation. This suggests that the 'easy money' in silver has probably been made, and it will be more difficult moving forward.

### 22. S&P 500 Energy Sector (1992-2024)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong breadth

This chart shows the S&P 500 Energy Sector and the percentage of energy stocks above their 200-day moving average. The speaker highlights that energy stocks continue to rise with incredible breadth, indicating strong underlying momentum. The table below shows positive returns after 95% of energy stocks are above their 200 DMA, suggesting continued strength in the sector.

### 23. HODL (VanEck Bitcoin Trust) (intraday)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** large trade

This chart shows intraday price action for the HODL Bitcoin Trust. A large trade is highlighted, but the price is currently underneath this level. The speaker notes that crypto markets haven't stabilized yet.

### 24. BTC/USD (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** head and shoulders (potential)
**Key Levels:** 76k average entry for MicroStrategy, 68k support

The Bitcoin weekly chart shows a potential 'hideous head and shoulders' pattern. The speaker points out that 76k is the average entry price for MicroStrategy, and if Bitcoin falls below this, it could drop to 68k. This suggests that something might have to 'buckle' before a real turnaround, and a significant portion of Bitcoin supply is currently underwater.

### 25. BTC Price vs Supply in Profit (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** supply underwater

This chart from Glassnode shows Bitcoin price versus the percentage of supply in profit. The speaker notes that 44% of Bitcoin supply is now underwater, meaning top buyers near the all-time high are holding at a loss. This indicates a significant test of cost basis near recent highs.

### 26. Bubble Watch: 1998-2002 (SPX vs. CSCO/NVDA P/E) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** analog to dot-com bubble
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 1998-2002 dot-com bubble

This chart overlays the real S&P 500 with an analog from 1998-2002, showing a 'gap in analog'. It also plots the trailing P/E ratios for Cisco (CSCO) and NVIDIA (NVDA). The speaker suggests that the current market resembles the dot-com bubble period, indicating a potential for high volatility in a mid-term year. The new Fed Chair's potential lack of guidance on liquidity could exacerbate this.

### 27. SPX (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** double top / rejection
**Key Levels:** 7000 resistance

The S&P 500 weekly chart shows the market hitting and rejecting the critical 7000 mark twice. The speaker notes that this is not a strong sell signal but can lead to profit-taking due to the psychological importance of the number. This opens up opportunities for sector rotation.

### 28. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation
**Key Levels:** 7031.4 options daily high level, 6860.1 options daily low level

The S&P 500 daily chart shows consolidation around the current levels. The speaker mentions that the index is less interesting than single stocks and that there's a lot of put pressure around the 6900 zone. If this drops, it could trigger a 'waterfall effect', but 7000 remains a core wall.

### 29. IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) (options expiration)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** put/call walls
**Key Levels:** 44.00, 40.00

This chart shows options expiration profiles for IBIT. The speaker notes that 44.00 and 40.00 seem to be important levels. If Bitcoin falls through these levels, the next equilibrium might be around 40.00, indicating a need for caution.

### 30. TSLA (Tesla Inc.) (options expiration)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** put/call walls
**Key Levels:** 420.00

This chart shows options expiration profiles for Tesla. The speaker highlights that Tesla is 'barely holding onto 420.00', and if it drops below this, it would be 'pretty bad for the stock'.

### 31. Gold (XAU) (options expiration)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** put/call walls
**Key Levels:** 460.00

This chart shows options expiration profiles for Gold. The speaker notes that 460.00 is the 'main core wall' at this stage, indicating a key resistance level.

### 32. XLK/XLP (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** breakdown, potential head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 1.45 support

The XLK/XLP weekly chart shows a breakdown below the 1.45 support level. The speaker notes that this indicator, representing the American consumer (one-third of the US economy), has broken below a critical level. The chart also shows a potential head and shoulders pattern, suggesting further weakness if it completes.

### 33. XLP (Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** skyrocketing

The XLP (Consumer Staples) daily chart shows the sector 'absolutely skyrocketing'. This is a defensive sector, and its strong performance contrasts with the weakness in tech, reinforcing the idea of a rotation into defensive stocks.

### 34. US Government Bonds 10Y (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** rising yields
**Key Levels:** 4.199% support, 4.499% resistance

The U.S. 10-year government bond yield chart shows yields continuing to rise. The speaker notes that this could be pressuring things like oil and will impact financials. If financials go down and 10-year yields go up, it's another 'warning canary'.

### 35. LQD (iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation

The LQD (Corporate Bond ETF) daily chart shows consolidation. The speaker mentions watching corporate bonds for signals.

### 36. DXY (U.S. Dollar Index Futures) (monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** testing trendline
**Key Levels:** 96.025 multi-year trendline

The DXY (U.S. Dollar Index Futures) monthly chart shows the dollar testing a multi-year trendline around 96.025. The speaker notes that there hasn't been much movement, with the dollar going 'up, down, all around', and is waiting to see how it plays out.

### 37. XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout, new all-time high

The XLE (Energy Sector ETF) weekly chart shows energy stocks doing very nicely, with a breakout and almost a new all-time high (it did get an all-time high in the last 24 hours). This confirms the rotation into energy.

### 38. Gold (XAU) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** rebound
**Key Levels:** 4321.65 massive support

The Gold daily chart shows gold managing to rebalance back up to just over 5000 an ounce, making back about 50% of its drop. The speaker reiterates a macro bullish stance on gold, noting that currency wars tend to last for decades.

### 39. Silver (XAG) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** bounce
**Key Levels:** 75.5160 demand zone

The Silver daily chart shows silver bouncing up, but 'nowhere near as much' as gold. The speaker notes the 'hiding it took' and that a demand zone around 75.5160 is holding. This suggests some cross-correlation with other metals.

### 40. Copper (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** pickup
**Key Levels:** 5.5841 potential bull zone, 5.2801 watch reaction here

The Copper daily chart shows copper picking up quite nicely, indicating a fairly strong performance. The speaker highlights a 'potential bull zone' at 5.5841 and a 'watch reaction here' level at 5.2801.

### 41. USOIL (Crude Oil WTI) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** pickup

The USOIL (Crude Oil WTI) daily chart shows barrels picking up off a level discussed in a previous video. This indicates continued strength in oil.

### 42. VIX (Volatility S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** spike and drop

The VIX (Volatility S&P 500 Index) daily chart shows a jump in volatility, up 20% at one point, before dropping back down. The speaker concludes that volatility is 'alive and well' in this market.

### 43. HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** hovering
**Key Levels:** 27,234 resistance

The HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) weekly chart shows Chinese stocks hovering around the same level, coming into Chinese New Year. A resistance level is marked at 27,234.

### 44. TSLA (Tesla Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** holding support
**Key Levels:** 420.00 support, 457.46 resistance

The Tesla daily chart shows the stock 'holding 420.00 for dear life'. The speaker notes that if it breaks this support, it could be a significant drop. A resistance level is marked at 457.46.

### 45. PYPL (PayPal Holdings, Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** sharp drop
**Key Levels:** 51.86 support, 58.77 resistance

The PayPal daily chart shows a massive drop in the stock price. The speaker emphasizes that when a company misses earnings and the market doesn't like what it sees, it 'really hits stocks'. Support is at 51.86 and resistance at 58.77.

### 46. MAGS (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** weakening
**Key Levels:** 62.84 support, 66.00 resistance

The MAGS (Magnificent Seven ETF) daily chart shows the ETF still looking a little bit weak. The speaker notes that if the market starts taking out the 'forward premium', it could face a 'hiding'. Support is at 62.84 and resistance at 66.00.

### 47. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** weakening
**Key Levels:** 317.99 support

The SMH (Semiconductor ETF) daily chart shows the sector weakening. The speaker notes that this is one of the things to watch closely, as semiconductors are a key indicator for the broader market. Support is at 317.99.

### 48. SMH/SPY (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** weakening

The SMH/SPY ratio daily chart shows that while the ratio is still overall up for a long time, it is starting to weaken a little bit. This indicates 'jitters in the market' and that the leadership of semiconductors relative to the broader S&P 500 is faltering.

### 49. BTC/USD (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH (SHORT-TERM BOUNCE)
**Pattern:** new low, potential sweep
**Key Levels:** 76,749.92 next major liquidation zone, 74,978.79 second buy zone, 67,879.50 huge support

The Bitcoin daily chart shows a new low, going as low as 73,000 before bouncing back up to barely hold onto the low level around 75k. The speaker suggests this could be a 'sweep' since it didn't close underneath. Key levels are 76,749.92 (next major liquidation zone), 74,978.79 (second buy zone), and 67,879.50 (huge support).

### 50. BTC/USD (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH (SHORT-TERM BOUNCE)
**Pattern:** rejection at resistance
**Key Levels:** 79,330.74 big resistance line

The Bitcoin 4-hour chart shows a rejection at a big resistance line at 79,330.74. The speaker states that if Bitcoin breaks above this, it would be a strong sign that buyers are committing back to Bitcoin. This is a critical point for Bitcoin, and a similar pattern is expected for other major cryptocurrencies.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a 'late cycle' regime, characterized by a rotation out of growth/tech stocks into defensive and commodity-based sectors. This is supported by weakening market breadth, divergence between the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, and historical analogs to periods preceding market corrections. The Federal Reserve's policy of tightening liquidity and the potential for a new Fed Chair to cease providing guidance are also key factors influencing this regime.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Big tech is selling, while Wall Street moves into defensive stocks.
- The S&P 500 has rejected the 7000 level twice, which is a very important zone.
- The tech sector was one of the worst performing sectors, while energy, materials, staples, and industrials were rallying.
- Big money is fleeing big tech stocks, and there's a slowdown in the 'Magnificent 7'.
- Hindenburg Omen signals, especially in clusters, can precede significant market problems.
- Falling U.S. truck sales point to a spike in the unemployment rate, indicating economic weakness.
- The leadership of the market is starting to potentially weaken, especially in semiconductors.
- The American consumer might be weakening, as indicated by the XLY/XLP ratio breaking below a key level.
- 44% of Bitcoin supply is now underwater, with top buyers near all-time highs holding at a loss.
- The S&P 500 is not yet in a market that has turned around, but it is a 'stock picker's market' and a 'sector picker's market'.
- Gold is macro bullish and is expected to continue its upward trend for decades.
- Silver has bounced but the 'easy money' has probably been made, and it will be more difficult going forward.
- Volatility is 'alive and well' in the market.

## All Instruments Mentioned
XLK, XLP, Gold, XAU, Silver, XAG, SPX, S&P 500, MSFT, PLTR, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, GOOG, AVGO, NVDA, MU, AMD, IBM, INTU, NOW, CRM, KLAC, CSCO, KO, WMT, PEP, MO, XOM, CVX, JPM, V, BRK-B, LLY, NFLX, RTX, GE, VZ, IGV, HODL, ARKK, GLD, BTC/USD, USDT, MAGS, SMH, US500, IBIT, PYPL, XLE, US Government Bonds 10Y, LQD, DXY, USOIL, Copper, VIX, HSI1!

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-03-01 23:09:41*