# Something Is Not Adding Up…
**Date:** 2026-02-12  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_OkDypZaNsI)

## Main Thesis
The market is showing a tale of two stories, with strong performance in large-cap tech driven by AI spending, while small businesses and the American consumer are weakening. This divergence, coupled with negative job revisions and increased short interest in software, suggests a late-cycle market with underlying concerns, despite some positive surface-level data.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. US500 (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation
**Key Levels:** 6726.8 support, 7000 resistance

The US500 is currently consolidating between 6726.8 and 7000. Atkinson highlights the negative 862,000 job revisions for 2025, suggesting underlying weakness despite the market's current stability. He questions whether the market should be paying attention to this or if something 'much sicker' is underneath the hood.

### 2. XLY/XLP (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** declining trend
**Key Levels:** 1.33 support, 1.44 resistance

This chart, representing the American consumer (XLY/XLP), shows a clear declining trend. Atkinson notes that the consumer is weakening, which could put pressure on everything. He asks viewers if they are feeling this weakness themselves, emphasizing that the flow is starting to turn more negative for one-third of the US economy.

### 3. Silver (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation
**Key Levels:** 65.3342 next support, 83.4170 current price

Silver is currently consolidating around 83.4170, with next major support at 65.3342. Atkinson mentions a 'tale of two markets' and the need to discuss what's happening with silver, gold, oil, and other commodities.

### 4. US BLS Employees on Nonfarm Payroll Actual Benchmark Revision (yearly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** significant downward revisions
**Key Levels:** -862,000 current revision
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 2009 (GFC) but even worse

This bar chart shows yearly revisions to nonfarm payrolls. The latest revision for 2025 is a negative 862,000, which Atkinson states is 'pretty bad' and 'not pretty.' He compares this to the 2009 Global Financial Crisis, noting that the current revisions are even worse, suggesting a significant underlying weakness in the job market.

### 5. Payrolls 3-month average change (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** declining trend
**Key Levels:** 0 line (no change)

This line chart illustrates the 3-month average change in payrolls. Atkinson points out that payroll numbers have been declining for months, with a continuous downward trend since the peaks. He notes that the US economy 'may not be so hot when it comes to finding jobs'.

### 6. Annual jobs added or lost (yearly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** declining trend
**Key Levels:** 0 line (no change)
**Historical Comparison:** not similar to 2021 anymore

This bar chart shows annual jobs added or lost. For 2025, only 181,000 jobs were added, which Atkinson describes as 'almost negative.' He emphasizes that this shows the US is no longer in a market similar to 2021, and the revisions have had a significant impact on each month's jobs report.

### 7. All Employees, Federal (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dropping off a cliff
**Key Levels:** 3,009 (Nov 2024)
**Historical Comparison:** lower than any year back to the 1970s

This line chart shows federal employment, which Atkinson states is 'dropping off a cliff' and is now lower than any year since the 1970s. This further supports the idea of a weakening job market.

### 8. Monthly job creation in the U.S. (monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** upward trend from lows
**Key Levels:** 130K (Jan 2026)

This bar chart shows monthly job creation. January 2026 came in at 130,000, which is 'much higher' than what was seen in 2025. Atkinson suggests this could be due to seasonal factors (January/February strength) but emphasizes that the 'time will be told in the revisions,' highlighting the problem with current job numbers.

### 9. US-based employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January 2026 (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** surge in layoffs
**Key Levels:** 108,435 job cuts
**Historical Comparison:** highest January total since 2009

This news headline reports 108,435 job cuts in January 2026, marking the highest January total since 2009 and a 118% increase from last year. Atkinson states this surge in layoffs is driven by companies adjusting to new financial, economic, and restructuring conditions. He emphasizes the need to pay attention to 'lead indicators' rather than just headline numbers.

### 10. US non-farm hiring rate (%) (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** fallen sharply
**Key Levels:** 3.3% (Jan 2025)

This line chart shows the US non-farm hiring rate, which has 'fallen sharply.' Atkinson attributes this to AI taking 'bottom jobs' out of the market. He points out a 'huge movement' in overall employment, with hiring continuously declining, signaling concerns from big companies about the future of the markets.

### 11. NFIB: Percent Planning Capital Expenditures next 3 to 6 Months (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** declining trend
**Key Levels:** 18% (Jan 2026)
**Historical Comparison:** similar to pre-GFC

This chart shows the percentage of firms planning capital expenditures. Atkinson highlights a 'tale of two stories': AI is causing increased spending from Magnificent Seven-style businesses (Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple), but there's 'weakness in the smaller cap businesses.' He notes that less spending is coming from small businesses, a trend similar to what was seen before the Global Financial Crisis. The net percentage of firms planning capital outlays fell to 18% in January, the lowest since April 2025, indicating a 'declining trend' and a 'problem in the future'.

### 12. S&P 500 Component Correlation (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** declining correlation
**Key Levels:** 0.2446 (last)
**Historical Comparison:** similar to late cycle periods

This chart shows the S&P 500 (top) and its component correlation (bottom). Atkinson explains that stocks are 'not all correlated anymore,' with a 'breadth improvement' that looks good on the surface but is being driven by small caps. He warns that when small caps start leading for too long, it can signal a 'late cycle' market, especially post-rate cut. This chart shows a significant decline in correlation, which is a concern.

### 13. Quality vs Index, Momentum vs Index, Min. Vol. vs Index, High DY vs Index, Value vs Growth, Small vs Large, EM vs DM, Cyc vs Def (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rotation

This multi-chart display shows various market factor comparisons. Atkinson states that 'rotation is the word of the year so far' and highlights 'value versus growth,' where value is coming up, a trend not seen since 2022. He also notes small versus large, emerging markets versus developed markets, and cyclicals versus defensives. He emphasizes that this rotation is typical of a 'late cycle' market, especially post-rate cut, and will be a key focus for the channel in 2026.

### 14. Software Industry 12 Month Forward PE and EPS (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** P/E ratios declining
**Key Levels:** 22.88 P/E (current)
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 2022 lows

This chart shows the 12-month forward P/E and EPS for the software industry. Atkinson points out that P/E ratios have come back down to a 'fairer price,' similar to the bottom of the 2022 falls. He questions if a 'bid' has been found for software stocks, noting that they are currently under 'a lot of pressure'.

### 15. US Small Caps (RTY) relative to Nasdaq-100 (NDX), 6m chg (6-month change)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** small-cap rotation in full-swing
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 2020-2021 post-expansion

This chart shows the 6-month change of US Small Caps (RTY) relative to the Nasdaq-100 (NDX). Atkinson confirms that 'small-cap rotation' is in full swing, with the Russell now beating the Nasdaq. He notes this is the first time it's happened in a while, similar to the late-cycle period after the massive expansion from 2020 to 2021, just before the market decline in 2022.

### 16. Software Short Interest at Record High (yearly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** record high short interest
**Key Levels:** 5% (record high)

This chart shows software short interest, which is now at 'record highs.' Atkinson explains that 'everyone is trying to buy and everyone is trying to short software businesses,' causing a 'build-up of structure.' He notes that this is the biggest on record going back to 2016, suggesting that people are getting concerned about the markets, but often when everyone is trying to short, it doesn't fall.

### 17. MAGS - Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** distribution
**Key Levels:** 66.00 resistance, 54.00 support

This chart for the Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) shows significant 'distribution' occurring, particularly in dark pool and normal large trades. Atkinson questions who is 'dumping it' and suggests it's being dumped by Wall Street. He emphasizes that this much distribution is a 'huge deal' and indicates potential weakness in these leading stocks.

### 18. S&P 500, Total Put Volume, Total Put/Call Ratio (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** increasing put volume
**Key Levels:** 0.8 Put/Call Ratio

This multi-chart display shows the S&P 500, total put volume, and total put/call ratio. Atkinson notes that short sellers and hedgers are active, with the total put/call ratio increasing. He points out that this activity coincided with September, suggesting a build-up of bearish sentiment or hedging against potential market declines.

### 19. IBIT (Bitcoin ETF), Put Volume, Volume (# of shares) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** spike in put volume
**Key Levels:** 1.369 million put volume, 284 million shares volume

This multi-chart display shows the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) along with its put volume and total volume. Atkinson highlights a massive spike in put volume (1.369 million) and overall volume (284 million shares) just the other day, indicating that 'everyone started buying puts.' He suggests this could have 'potentially found a little bit of structural base' where everyone went negative.

### 20. IGV (software ETF), XLP (consumer staples ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** mixed options activity
**Key Levels:** 252,000 call volume (IGV), 764,000 put volume (XLP)

This multi-chart display shows the software ETF (IGV) and the consumer staples ETF (XLP). IGV has a mixture of puts and calls, which could create a 'structure base.' XLP, representing defensives, has seen a lot of rallying as everyone tries to turn negative on them. Atkinson notes that these are ETFs, and the options activity could be creating structural support or resistance.

### 21. Global Growth Tracker Flags Recovery (Global GDP Tracker, Advanced Economies, Emerging Markets) (monthly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** increase in GDP growth
**Key Levels:** 0 line (no growth)

This chart shows the global GDP tracker, advanced economies, and emerging markets. Atkinson notes an 'increase' in GDP growth, which is 'not what you usually get in a recession.' He points out that governments are spending, contributing to this growth, and suggests that for the time being, AI seems to be making the global GDP tracker positive.

### 22. ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** head and shoulders, rally back
**Key Levels:** 72.01 resistance, 60.00 support

This chart for ARKK shows a head and shoulders pattern, with the price falling through support but then rallying back up. Atkinson agrees with the head and shoulders pattern, noting that ARKK had 'fallen through' but then rallied back, suggesting that the 'downward pressure wasn't as significant' as it could have been. He emphasizes that this is an important factor when doing technical analysis.

### 23. IPO Offer Capital Raised (yearly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** IPOs on the rise
**Key Levels:** 12B (2025)

This bar chart shows IPO offer capital raised. Atkinson notes that 'IPOs are on the rise and they're being fast-tracked,' with big funds seemingly wanting to get out. He mentions Open AI, Anthropic, and SpaceX as examples of companies going public this year, indicating a strong interest in new offerings.

### 24. Historical Gross IPOs (yearly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** increasing IPO activity
**Key Levels:** 364 (2025)
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 2020-2021 peak

This chart shows historical gross IPOs. Atkinson highlights that IPO activity in 2025 is increasing, with 364 IPOs, which is comparable to the 2020-2021 peak. He emphasizes the importance of watching global IPOs as a key indicator.

### 25. EM sovereign credit spreads have been declining (monthly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** declining credit spreads
**Key Levels:** 1.77 (EM Sov. Credit OAS), 3.16 (EM HY OAS)

This chart shows emerging market (EM) sovereign credit spreads, which have been declining. Atkinson describes this as 'like the calm before the storm,' indicating that for now, there isn't significant risk in bonds. He suggests that if these spreads start to move out, then attention will be needed.

### 26. Most Anticipated Earnings Releases (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** earnings season

This calendar shows the most anticipated earnings releases for the week of February 09, 2026. Atkinson warns that earnings for the markets are often 'very volatile,' with options markets sometimes seeing 10-15% moves in a session for hyper-growth stocks. He advises caution during this period.

### 27. S&P 500 Index (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation in a channel
**Key Levels:** 6881.1 options daily low level, 7001.7 options daily high level

The S&P 500 is currently consolidating in a channel, with resistance at 7000 and support at 6881.1. Atkinson notes that the advance-decline line continues to move up, indicating increasing breadth. He highlights that 7000 is a 'massive options level' and that breaking through 6900 would put pressure on the downside, while breaking 7000 would lead to positive gamma.

### 28. First Expiration (2026-02-12), Next Expiration (2026-03-13), Expiration with Highest GEX (2026-02-20), Expiration with Highest GEX (2026-04-17) (options expiration)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** options walls
**Key Levels:** 6900 puts, 7000 calls

This multi-chart display shows options profiles for various expirations. Atkinson points out 'lots of puts on 6900 and lots of calls on 7000' for the S&P 500. He suggests that if the market goes through 7000, it will likely go positive gamma, but if it goes through 6900, it will put pressure on the downside. He emphasizes watching the 6800 level as the market is 'firmly in a channel' and 'trapped' by these options walls.

### 29. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** slowly trending up
**Key Levels:** 430.00 resistance, 376.66 support

Tesla is slowly trending back up, trying to reclaim the 450-460 range, which could send it to 500. Atkinson notes key levels at 400-430. He mentions that a lot of people are getting involved in the options side, but it's tough to tell the direction at this stage. He also points out that Tesla has rallied back up after a previous fall, indicating that downward pressure wasn't as significant.

### 30. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation
**Key Levels:** 190.05 current price, 194.09 resistance, 169.80 support

NVIDIA is putting pressure on the 190-195 level, which is a very important level. Atkinson states that if NVIDIA breaks through 195, it could be 'really significant' for the markets to break 7000 on the S&P 500 as well. He notes that there's no break of 195 yet, but it's a key level to watch.

### 31. iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downward trend
**Key Levels:** 89.32 resistance, 83.23 support

IGV, the software tech ETF, is in a downward trend. Atkinson notes that to stop a 'freight train down' often takes some structure, and while volume is up massively (indicating a lot of interested parties, both sellers and buyers), it's unclear if a bottom has been found. He suggests that the easy money is probably over for software tech.

### 32. US10Y Yield (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** sitting firm
**Key Levels:** 4.199% current yield, 4.499% resistance

US 10-year yields seem to be 'sitting pretty firm' around 4.199%. Atkinson notes that if bond spreads start to move out, then attention will be needed, but for now, they are holding steady.

### 33. US02Y Yield (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** pressure on the bottom
**Key Levels:** 3.445% support, 3.506% current yield

US 2-year yields put a lot of pressure on the bottom at 3.445%. Atkinson states that if there are 'a lot of cuts,' the yield will break through the 3.4 level, but for now, it's 'still just holding, holding, holding' for the last couple of months.

### 34. UKOIL (Brent Crude Oil) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** increases
**Key Levels:** 69.67 resistance, 73.09 resistance

UK Oil and US Oil are seeing increases. Atkinson notes that they have been discussing the idea of oil for months, and energy stocks are 'flying' and 'unstoppable.' He emphasizes that this is often 'against the press,' highlighting the importance of flow over news.

### 35. XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** flying
**Key Levels:** 44.55 support, 54.98 current price

XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF, is 'flying' and 'unstoppable.' Atkinson notes that volumes have improved, and it has broken to multi-year highs. He emphasizes that this is often 'against the press,' highlighting the importance of flow over news.

### 36. US Dollar Index Futures (DX1!) (monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding trendline
**Key Levels:** 96.025 support, 100.155 resistance

The Dollar Index is falling a little bit, but the monthly chart is still holding a 'massive trendline.' Atkinson notes that it's not looking 'exactly pretty,' but they will continue to watch which side of the dollar it moves onto. He emphasizes that flow is key, not opinions or bias.

### 37. Gold (XAUUSD) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding better than silver
**Key Levels:** 4321.65 massive support, 5066.52 current price

Gold is holding better than silver, which makes some sense. Atkinson believes that after the 'massive crunch,' gold will sit for a little while and create structure. He notes that there's nothing much happening with gold at the moment.

### 38. Hang Seng Index (HSI1!) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding their own
**Key Levels:** 26,694 support, 27,117 current price

Chinese stocks are 'holding their own' into Chinese New Year and are still moving up. Atkinson notes that they are doing 'okay' and are showing resilience.

### 39. State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** okay
**Key Levels:** 68.55 first resistance, 59.09 support

Regional banks continue to be 'okay.' Atkinson states that if regional banks were getting crushed, it would tell something about debt, but that's not currently being seen. He concludes that markets remain 'resilient' even in the face of pressure.

### 40. US 100 Cash CFD (NAS100) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** in range
**Key Levels:** 24,141.8 support, 25,194.7 current price

The Nasdaq is 'in range,' with nothing much going on. Atkinson notes that markets remain 'resilient' even in the face of pressure, despite a previous fall.

### 41. Bitcoin / TetherUS (BTCUSDT) (2-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** breaking to the downside
**Key Levels:** 67,879.50 huge support, 62,617.47 next major liquidation zone

Bitcoin is breaking to the downside at this stage and is 'stuck.' Atkinson notes that they are not at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level or a demand zone, and it's not rallying much. He states that it takes a little bit of time to usually break structure, but the good news is that so many people went bearish on options that it often causes the markets to 'pause for a little while'.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a late-cycle phase, characterized by divergence between large-cap tech (driven by AI spending) and weakening small businesses/consumers. Job numbers are being revised downwards, and short interest in software is at record highs, indicating underlying concerns despite some surface-level positive data. This suggests a rotation in market leadership and potential future risks, though bonds are not yet signaling a full-blown crisis.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Pay attention to job revisions, not just headline numbers.
- Watch lead indicators for market direction.
- Be cautious of late-cycle market behavior, especially when small caps lead for too long.
- Monitor options levels for key support and resistance, particularly 7000 and 6800 on the S&P 500.
- Be aware of increased volatility in hyper-growth stocks during earnings season.
- Watch bond spreads as a canary for broader market risk.
- Flow is the key, not opinions or bias.

## All Instruments Mentioned
US500, XLY/XLP, Silver, US BLS Employees on Nonfarm Payroll Actual Benchmark Revision, Payrolls 3-month average change, Annual jobs added or lost, All Employees, Federal, Monthly job creation in the U.S., US-based employers announced 108,435 job cuts in January 2026, US non-farm hiring rate (%), NFIB: Percent Planning Capital Expenditures next 3 to 6 Months, S&P 500 Component Correlation, Quality vs Index, Momentum vs Index, Min. Vol. vs Index, High DY vs Index, Value vs Growth, Small vs Large, EM vs DM, Cyc vs Def, Software Industry 12 Month Forward PE and EPS, US Small Caps (RTY) relative to Nasdaq-100 (NDX), 6m chg, Software Short Interest at Record High, MAGS - Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF, S&P 500, Total Put Volume, Total Put/Call Ratio, IBIT (Bitcoin ETF), Put Volume, Volume (# of shares), IGV (software ETF), XLP (consumer staples ETF), Global Growth Tracker Flags Recovery (Global GDP Tracker, Advanced Economies, Emerging Markets), ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF), IPO Offer Capital Raised, Historical Gross IPOs, EM sovereign credit spreads have been declining, Most Anticipated Earnings Releases, S&P 500 Index, First Expiration (2026-02-12), Next Expiration (2026-03-13), Expiration with Highest GEX (2026-02-20), Expiration with Highest GEX (2026-04-17), Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV), US10Y Yield, US02Y Yield, UKOIL (Brent Crude Oil), XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF), US Dollar Index Futures (DX1!), Gold (XAUUSD), Hang Seng Index (HSI1!), State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), US 100 Cash CFD (NAS100), Bitcoin / TetherUS (BTCUSDT)

---
*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-02-26 16:41:38*