# We’ve Seen This Before…
**Date:** 2026-02-22  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dvcsbz04B8Y)

## Main Thesis
The market is showing signs of underlying stress with increased Federal Reserve liquidity injections, declining middle-class wealth, and potential trade wars. While tech stocks are currently strong, there are concerns about an AI bubble and a potential shift towards commodities and value stocks.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. Silver (XAGUSD) (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 79.5035 break above positive, 84.6250, 85.0187, 90.3141, 92.0000
**Historical Comparison:** null

The chart shows Silver breaking above 79.5035, which is marked as 'Break Above Positive'. Atkinson notes a significant injection of $18.5 billion into the financial system by the Federal Reserve, suggesting a potential bullish move for Silver. He highlights the price rallying towards 84.6250 and potentially 90.3141, indicating strength.

### 2. USOIL (Crude Oil WTI) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout
**Key Levels:** 65.618, 66.363
**Historical Comparison:** null

Crude Oil is breaking up, with prices moving above the 65.618 and 66.363 levels. This is seen as a significant move, especially in the context of central bank actions and tariffs.

### 3. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 189.82, 193.63 Call Wall, 193.87, 202.84
**Historical Comparison:** null

NVIDIA is approaching a 'Call Wall' at 193.63. Atkinson mentions NVIDIA's upcoming earnings report as a key event for the market, suggesting its performance will provide significant sentiment for the tech sector.

### 4. Top 1% vs Middle Class Wealth (Q2, 1993-2023)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** crossover
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart illustrates that the top 1% of U.S. earners now have more wealth than the entire middle class, with the blue line (Top 1% wealth) crossing above the red line (Middle class wealth) around 2020. Atkinson emphasizes this as a sign of stress on the American consumer and a worldwide phenomenon.

### 5. Overnight Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Purchased by the Federal Reserve (2021-07 to 2026-01)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** cluster of spikes
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 2020 pandemic period

The chart shows a recent cluster of spikes in overnight repurchase agreements, indicating significant liquidity injections by the Federal Reserve. Atkinson points out that such clusters haven't been seen since 2020, suggesting potential systemic issues or illiquidity in the banking system.

### 6. Overnight Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Purchased by the Federal Reserve (2000 to 2026)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** cluster of spikes
**Historical Comparison:** similar to pre-GFC and pre-dot-com boom

This extended historical view of overnight repurchase agreements shows similar clusters of spikes before the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the dot-com boom. Atkinson notes that each subsequent cluster tends to be larger, suggesting a canary in the coal mine for financial instability.

### 7. Reasons for imposing tariffs (null)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** null
**Historical Comparison:** null

A table outlining different sections under which tariffs can be imposed. Atkinson discusses the Supreme Court rejecting Trump's tariffs, leading to new 15% global tariffs. He highlights the potential for these tariffs to put significant pressure on the American consumer.

### 8. Cass Freight Index - Shipments (January 2016 - January 2026)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** declining trend
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Cass Freight Index shows a declining trend in shipments, indicating a weakening underlying economy. Atkinson notes this is not a new story but suggests something is going on underneath the hood in terms of freight, which is an early read on the U.S. economy.

### 9. US Gold Reserves As a % of Government Debt (1920 to 2025)

**Bias:** BULLISH FOR GOLD
**Pattern:** declining trend
**Historical Comparison:** null

U.S. Gold Reserves as a percentage of Government Debt are incredibly low, currently at 3%. Atkinson suggests this indicates declining faith in fiat currencies, especially in 2026, leading to a bullish outlook for gold and silver.

### 10. Dollar's Role in Global Reserves Is Withering Away (2006 to 2025)

**Bias:** BULLISH FOR GOLD
**Pattern:** declining trend for USD, increasing for gold
**Historical Comparison:** null

The chart shows the USD's role in global reserves weakening, a trend ongoing for the last three years. Gold's weighting is soaring, remaining supreme as the oldest currency, which is seen as a positive for gold.

### 11. AI-Exposed vs Non-AI-Exposed Payrolls (Monthly Frequency 2016-01 to 2026-01)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH FOR JOBS
**Pattern:** divergence
**Historical Comparison:** null

Non-AI-exposed industries are still hiring, while AI-exposed industries are bleeding jobs. Atkinson interprets this as companies using AI as an excuse to cut jobs, especially after over-hiring in 2021-2023. He also notes AI's current limitations and 'hallucinations'.

### 12. AI Disruption Mentions Surge to Record (Q1 2021 to Q1 2025)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH FOR MARKET SENTIMENT
**Pattern:** surging mentions
**Historical Comparison:** null

Mentions of AI disruption are surging to record highs, indicating widespread belief that AI will replace jobs. Atkinson cautions against over-optimism, comparing it to the slow adoption of self-driving cars, and suggests taking these 'massive statements' with a grain of salt.

### 13. HYPERSCALER' CAPEX ESTIMATES: BY YEAR (2018 to 2028)

**Bias:** BULLISH FOR HARDWARE, CAUTIOUS FOR AI BUBBLE
**Pattern:** exponential growth
**Historical Comparison:** null

Hyperscaler capital expenditure estimates show exponential growth, indicating everyone is betting on the AI hardware side. Atkinson suggests checking semiconductors (SMH) as a bellwether for the AI bubble, implying that if semiconductors weaken, there's something 'very wrong' with the AI bubble.

### 14. XLK (tech sector ETF) vs Short Interest (2024-01 to 2026)

**Bias:** BEARISH FOR TECH, POTENTIAL FOR SHORT SQUEEZE
**Pattern:** increasing short interest
**Historical Comparison:** null

Tech (XLK) has become heavily shorted, with short interest accelerating massively. Atkinson notes that markets can stay irrational longer than one can remain solvent, suggesting a potential for a short squeeze if tech continues to rise, but also highlighting the underlying bearish sentiment.

### 15. IGV (software ETF) vs Fund Flows (2 week total) (2024-01 to 2026)

**Bias:** BEARISH FOR SOFTWARE, CAUTIOUS ABOUT 'BUY THE DIP'
**Pattern:** collapsing price, massive fund inflows
**Historical Comparison:** null

Software (IGV) has been collapsing, but there are massive fund inflows trying to 'buy the dip'. Atkinson questions whether this is the best time to buy the dip, implying that the trend is still down despite the buying interest.

### 16. S&P 500 vs Total Put/Call Ratio (2024-01 to 2026)

**Bias:** BULLISH FOR SPX
**Pattern:** high put/call ratio
**Key Levels:** 0.9 put/call ratio
**Historical Comparison:** null

The S&P 500 put/call ratio is still quite high. Traditionally, a high put/call ratio means the market is bottoming. Atkinson notes that while it doesn't have to bottom, it usually does, suggesting a potential bullish reversal for the SPX.

### 17. S&P 500 Energy Sector (1992 to 2024)

**Bias:** BULLISH FOR ENERGY
**Pattern:** 100% of stocks above 50dma
**Key Levels:** 100% above 50dma
**Historical Comparison:** first time in over a year

100% of S&P 500 Energy stocks are above their 50-day moving average, a phenomenon not seen in over a year. Atkinson highlights this as a strong bullish signal for the energy sector, suggesting smart money has been flowing into oil services, energy stocks, and gas exploration.

### 18. Flows into Cyclical vs Defensive Equity Funds (Jun-25 to Feb-26)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/ROTATIONAL
**Pattern:** shift from tech to defensives/cyclicals
**Historical Comparison:** null

The chart shows flows into cyclical and defensive equity funds. Atkinson notes that the market shifted away from tech a while ago, with everyone saying 'no tech, no tech'. Now, flows are starting to come back into tech, indicating the normal ebb and flow of markets.

### 19. Most Anticipated Earnings Releases (Week of Feb 23rd, 2026)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** null
**Historical Comparison:** null

A calendar of most anticipated earnings releases for the week of February 23rd, 2026. Atkinson highlights NVIDIA's earnings on Wednesday after the close as a crucial event that will provide significant sentiment for the market, especially for semiconductors and the AI economy.

### 20. Earnings Releases by Implied Movement (Week of Feb 23rd)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** NVIDIA 6-7% implied move
**Historical Comparison:** null

A chart showing implied price movements for various stocks based on options pricing around their earnings. NVIDIA has an implied move of 6-7%. Atkinson states that if NVIDIA 'knocks the lights out' and breaks above 190+, it could create a short squeeze in the markets. Conversely, if it underperforms, it could get 'nasty pretty quick'.

### 21. S&P 500 Index (SPX) (2h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 6795.23 support, 6909.52 resistance, 6997.00 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The S&P 500 is in a massive range-bound market, with support at 6795.23 and resistance at 6909.52 and 6997.00. Atkinson notes signs of recovery with higher highs, and pullbacks met by demand. He states that unless bottom levels are lost, the market is generally bullish, despite tariff situations.

### 22. US Government Bonds 2YR Yield (US02Y) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 3.56% alert
**Historical Comparison:** null

Yields dropped down and then started to pick back up. Atkinson has an alert at 3.56% on the 2-year yield, indicating a level to watch for potential changes in market sentiment.

### 23. US Government Bonds 10YR Yield (US10Y) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** null
**Historical Comparison:** null

The 10-year yield is also being watched. Atkinson has been thinking that energy would bounce up, which it has, and this could create some form of 'reinflation style concept' or sticky inflation in the markets.

### 24. Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 204.09 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) continues to make a series of higher highs and higher lows, showing no weakness yet. Atkinson emphasizes the importance of paying attention to flows and charts over personal biases.

### 25. Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 206.88 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

People have been chasing value recently, and VTV is showing a strong upward trend. Atkinson notes that companies less exposed to AI seem to be where the money is flowing.

### 26. Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower highs and lower lows
**Key Levels:** 64.00 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) was weak and broke down, continuing in a series of lower highs and lower lows. Atkinson has an alert at 64.00, suggesting this is where things could change and potentially see more strength in tech, but currently, the trend is down.

### 27. Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) / S&P 500 (SPY) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH FOR ENERGY
**Pattern:** outperformance
**Key Levels:** 0.0796 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Energy stocks (XLE) have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 (SPY) throughout 2026, especially since late January. Atkinson highlights this strong outperformance, indicating opportunities in the energy sector.

### 28. UKOIL (Brent Crude Oil) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout
**Key Levels:** 69.86, 71.69, 73.09, 78.62 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Brent Crude Oil has seen a nice breakout, confirming its potential to move to the next level. It went early, and there's a possibility that barrels could reach $78.62. Atkinson is watching these levels, noting a series of higher highs and higher lows.

### 29. Gold (XAUUSD) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** new high
**Key Levels:** 5106.73, 5200.00, 5300.00
**Historical Comparison:** null

Gold is about to make a new high in the short term, with people trying to hedge. A breach above 5106.73 suggests it might go a little higher. Atkinson is not 'in love' with the charts but believes the macro outlook for gold is still good.

### 30. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 376.66 support, 400.00, 435.89 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Tesla is trading between 400 and 435.89, with 400 being the most traded area. Atkinson finds it 'pretty boring' with nothing new to report, suggesting a neutral bias within its established range.

### 31. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 172.93 support, 193.35 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

NVIDIA is trading between 172.93 and 193.35. Breaking above 193.35 would initiate positive gamma, while breaking below 172.93 would indicate problems. Atkinson considers this a bellwether chart, along with semiconductors, for the overall market.

### 32. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward trend
**Key Levels:** 409.00 support, 415.03 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Semiconductors (SMH) are not looking weak yet, with prices holding above 409.00. Atkinson states that one cannot be bearish when the 'backbone' of the market (semiconductors) is still going up.

### 33. VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward trend
**Key Levels:** 301.33 support, 389.55 resistance, 421.37 target
**Historical Comparison:** null

Oil services (OIH) are 'blitzing it', surpassing even Atkinson's 'wildest dreams'. He notes that it has surpassed previous targets and continues its strong upward trajectory, indicating significant bullish momentum.

### 34. Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI1!) (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding support
**Key Levels:** 24985 support, 26899 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Chinese markets (Hang Seng Index Futures) are holding above the weekly 20-moving average and the 24985 support level. Atkinson notes that the market is not looking super negative and could see further bullishness if it breaks 26899.

### 35. Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI1!) (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 26855 support, 27396 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Hang Seng Index Futures are currently range-bound between 26855 and 27396. Atkinson suggests that 27400 is a zone to watch for potential breakouts.

### 36. US 100 Cash CFD (NDX100) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 24003 support, 25906.6 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Nasdaq is 'okay', but not as strong as other markets. It's trading within a range, with 24003 as a key support level. Atkinson suggests it's not showing significant weakness or strength compared to other indices.

### 37. US 2000 Index (US2000) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend
**Key Levels:** 2438.6 support, 2668.0 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Russell 2000 is doing better than the Nasdaq, showing an upward trend. Atkinson suggests tracking IWM versus QQQ to confirm this outperformance.

### 38. iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) / Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH FOR RUSSELL
**Pattern:** Russell outperforming Nasdaq
**Key Levels:** 0.4346 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The ratio of IWM to QQQ shows that the Russell 2000 has been 'smashing tech' for the past 2-3 months, indicating a clear outperformance of small-cap value over large-cap growth.

### 39. Bitcoin / TetherUS (BTCUSDT) (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 65170.99 support, 69099.99 resistance, 71808.48 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Bitcoin is currently range-bound between 65170.99 and 69099.99. Atkinson notes that while he likes the base, it's stuck in the middle of nowhere, and nothing yet to stop the 'freight train' (strong upward momentum) if it breaks resistance.

### 40. Bitcoin / TetherUS (BTCUSDT) (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 63169.74, 65170.99, 67976.28, 69099.99, 71808.48
**Historical Comparison:** null

On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin is showing a couple of wicks, which is good, but it's still stuck in the middle of nowhere. The 68k to 63k zone is very interesting. Atkinson reiterates that nothing has stopped the 'freight train' yet, implying that a strong upward move could still occur if resistance is broken.

### 41. Bitcoin / TetherUS (BTCUSDT) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 65170.99 support, 69099.99 resistance, 71808.48 resistance, 72034.56 confirmation
**Historical Comparison:** null

Bitcoin is stuck in the middle of nowhere. Atkinson believes 72034.56 would confirm bullishness, but for now, it remains range-bound. He emphasizes that the market is trapped and still rotational.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
Atkinson identifies a regime where the Federal Reserve is actively injecting liquidity, tariffs are creating economic pressure, and there's a growing divergence in wealth. He also highlights the rise of AI as a disruptive force, potentially leading to job displacement and an 'AI bubble'. Intermarket analysis suggests a rotation from tech to commodities and value stocks, with energy and semiconductors showing strength.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch NVIDIA earnings on Wednesday after the close for market sentiment.
- If NVIDIA breaks above $190+, it could trigger a short squeeze.
- If NVIDIA underperforms, tech markets could turn 'nasty quickly'.
- Monitor semiconductors (SMH) as a bellwether for the AI bubble.
- Energy stocks (XLE, OIH) are showing strong bullish momentum.
- Bitcoin needs to break above $72,034.56 for confirmed bullishness.
- The Russell 2000 (IWM) is outperforming the Nasdaq (QQQ), indicating a shift to small-cap value.

## All Instruments Mentioned
XAGUSD, USOIL, NVDA, US02Y, US10Y, RSP, VTV, MAGS, XLE, SPY, UKOIL, XAUUSD, TSLA, SMH, OIH, HSI1!, NDX100, US2000, IWM, QQQ, BTCUSDT, MSFT, PLTR, AAPL, AMZN, AVGO, INTU, NOW, CRM, ADBE, AMD, IBM, CSCO, GOOG, META, NFLX, RTX, TJX, JPM, V, BRK-B, LLY, ABT, XOM, CVX, SHEL, BP, FRED, IGV, SNOW, ZM, CRM, UNISYS, DELL, INTU, DUOL

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-02-26 16:35:13*