# The Most Important Earnings Of 2026...
**Date:** 2026-02-25  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xDdD_8M9yI)

## Main Thesis
The market is at a pivotal point with NVDA earnings potentially triggering significant moves. While some sectors show strength, others like financials and housing indicate underlying weakness, suggesting a late-cycle market with increasing risks.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. NVDA (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation below positive gamma level
**Key Levels:** 195.00 positive gamma level, 170.00 support, 200.00 resistance, 210.00 resistance

NVDA is approaching its earnings release with a key positive gamma level at $195.00. The options market implies a 6-7% move, but historically, NVDA moves 3.5-5% post-earnings. Breaking above $195.00 could trigger a positive gamma squeeze towards $200.00 and $210.00, while a drop below $170.00 would be a significant breakdown. The chart shows price action consolidating around the 20-day and 50-day moving averages.

### 2. SPX (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** ranging market
**Key Levels:** 6993.83 resistance, 6798.74 support, 6890.06 equilibrium

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is currently stuck in a range between 6798.74 and 6993.83, with the equilibrium at 6890.06. Dark pool transactions from Wall Street have been appearing, suggesting potential fireworks. The market is showing signs of basing patterns, but overall, it's in a consolidation phase.

### 3. BTC/USD (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation above major support
**Key Levels:** 71954.06 resistance, 62647.43 major support

Bitcoin has recently hit a major support level at 62647.43 after a significant drop. It's currently consolidating above this support. The price action shows a series of lower highs and lower lows, indicating technical weakness, but a bounce from this major support is possible.

### 4. Sector Performance (3 months)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** divergence
**Key Levels:** Financials -7%, Oil Services +40.79%, Gold +29.27%, Energy +23.54%, Agriculture +17.37%

A quick recap of sector performance over the last three months shows a 'tale of two different things.' Financials are down 7%, while oil services, gold, and energy are showing double-digit gains, with oil services up over 40%. This divergence highlights where Wall Street has been allocating capital.

### 5. QQQ (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** dark pool transactions
**Key Levels:** 620.00 resistance, 590.00 support

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) chart shows significant dark pool transactions coming through in anticipation of NVDA earnings. These large off-market trades are being recorded, with the 21st and 42nd largest transactions in recent years appearing. This suggests institutional positioning ahead of the earnings event.

### 6. VOO (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** basing patterns, dark pool transactions
**Key Levels:** 634.00 resistance, 622.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** previous VOO dark pool led to a drop

The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) is showing basing patterns after a previous drop following large dark pool transactions. Recently, new dark pool transactions have appeared, coinciding with an acceleration back up in the markets. This suggests potential for further upward movement if the market can overcome current fears related to tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and earnings concerns.

### 7. NVDA Implied Movement (weekly (Feb 23rd))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 6-7% implied move

The earnings-watcher.com chart indicates that the options market is pricing in a 6-7% implied movement for NVDA's earnings. Historically, NVDA tends to move between 3.5-5% post-earnings. This highlights the high volatility expected for NVDA, a company now valued at $4 trillion.

### 8. S&P 500 Constituents on NVDA Earnings Days (historical)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** correlation

This chart from Bluekurtic Market Insights shows the positivity rates of S&P 500 constituents on NVDA earnings days. It highlights which stocks tend to move in correlation with NVDA's earnings results over the subsequent 10 days. This suggests that NVDA's performance can have a ripple effect across the broader market.

### 9. S&P 500: Hindenburg Omen (historical)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Hindenburg Omen
**Historical Comparison:** past Hindenburg Omens and subsequent market performance

The S&P 500 has triggered a Hindenburg Omen while the S&P is within 0.4% of its 100-day moving average. Historically, this signal has often preceded market downturns, particularly in the 2-week to 2-month timeframe. While not a guaranteed predictor, a cluster of such signals warrants caution, especially if NVDA fails to break into positive gamma.

### 10. Google Trends: Can't Sell House (5 years)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** accelerating trend

Google Trends data for the search term 'Can't Sell House' in the USA shows a significant and accelerating upward trend, particularly in 2026. This indicates increasing public concern about the housing market, aligning with other indicators of an economic slowdown.

### 11. Building Permits for New Homes (2015-2025)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** declining trend
**Key Levels:** 1.39 million (2019), 1.42 million (2025)
**Historical Comparison:** lowest level since 2019

Building permits for new homes in the US fell to the lowest level since 2019 in 2025, reaching 1.42 million compared to 1.39 million in 2019. This chart from the US Census Report, created with Datawrapper, shows a clear downward trend in housing construction, indicating a slowdown in the housing sector.

### 12. Pending Home Sales Index (2011-2026)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** declining trend, potential breakdown
**Key Levels:** 70 support

The Pending Home Sales Index, seasonally adjusted, shows a significant decline since 2021, now sitting near the 70 level. This chart from Wolfstreet.com indicates that if this level breaks to the downside, it could signal potential issues in the broader financial system, often appearing in bonds and financial stocks (XLF).

### 13. Overnight Repurchase Agreements (2018-2026)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** spikes in activity
**Historical Comparison:** similar activity before 2020 pandemic

Overnight Repurchase Agreements (repos) from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York show spikes in activity, particularly in 2019 before the 2020 pandemic, and again in 2026. This clustering of repo activity can indicate stress in the financial system, similar to the Hindenburg Omen, and warrants close monitoring.

### 14. XLK (tech sector ETF) Short Interest (historical to 2026)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** accelerating short interest

Short interest in the XLK (tech sector ETF) has accelerated significantly throughout 2026, as shown by SubuTrade. This indicates a growing bearish sentiment towards the tech sector, despite the overall market strength.

### 15. IGV (software ETF) Fund Flows (2024-01 to 2024-10)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** heavy selling followed by peak fund flows

The IGV (software ETF) has seen heavy selling, with everyone disliking software stocks. However, just recently, there was a huge peak in fund flows, as shown by SubuTrade. This often precedes a market 'wiping out' those who bought the dip, as the price subsequently made a lower low. This suggests a 'tale of two stories' with weakness in software but also potential for further downside.

### 16. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** ranging market
**Key Levels:** 6991.18 high, 6800.08 low, 6890.06 equilibrium

The S&P 500 is currently stuck in a massive range between 6800.08 and 6991.18, with the most traded area around 6900.00. An uptick in the advance-decline line suggests improving breadth. Breaking above 6900.00 could lead to 7000.00, while a break below 6800.00 could open up a 200-point channel trade to the downside.

### 17. US500 (2h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** ranging market
**Key Levels:** 6957.9 options high, 6824.2 options low, 6900.00 equilibrium

On the 2-hour timeframe, the US500 shows dark pool activity around 6824.2 (options low level). The market has seen a series of lower lows followed by a sudden move up. The equilibrium is around 6900.00. If 6900.00 is broken, the next logical step is 7000.00. If 6800.00 is broken, it could open up a 200-point channel trade to the downside.

### 18. SPX Options Flow (various expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** put walls and call resistance
**Key Levels:** 6850 put side, 6910-6950 call side, 6800 put wall

Analyzing SPX options flows for various expirations, there's significant put interest at 6850 and a 'put wall' at 6800. Call resistance is seen around 6910-6950. Dropping below a massive put wall can create a 'waterfall effect,' leading to rapid downward movement. This highlights the importance of these levels for market direction.

### 19. QQQ Options Flow (various expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation around major level
**Key Levels:** 600.00 major level

For QQQ options, 600.00 is identified as a major level. The market is currently above this level, but it's a key psychological and technical point. Breaking this level could lead to further moves, but the chart doesn't show immediate strong directional bias based on options flow alone.

### 20. NVDA Options Flow (all expirations)

**Bias:** BULLISH IF 195 BREAKS
**Pattern:** positive gamma trigger
**Key Levels:** 190.00, 195.00, 200.00, 210.00, 220.00, 230.00, 170.00 support

NVDA options show massive levels at 190.00, 195.00, and 200.00, with 200.00 being particularly critical. Each $10 increment above 200.00 (210.00, 220.00, 230.00) represents the next important level. Breaking 195.00 could trigger a positive gamma event, leading to a 'squeeze effect' and potentially pushing the stock towards 210.00. Conversely, 170.00 is a key support level. All eyes are on these levels post-earnings.

### 21. TSLA Options Flow (various expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** ranging
**Key Levels:** 400.00 put level, 420.00 call level

Tesla options show the market is still stuck in a range. 400.00 is a significant put level, and the call side is more around 420.00. There isn't much significant options activity to suggest a strong directional move for Tesla at this point.

### 22. US 10Y Yield (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation
**Key Levels:** 3.00 resistance, 2.86 support

The US 10-year yield has seen a bit of a pickup in February, showing a consolidation pattern around the 2.95-3.00 area. If NVDA reports poorly, the options market might push bond yields up, which would be an interesting development to watch.

### 23. HYG (High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** ranging
**Key Levels:** 81.04 resistance, 80.00 support

The HYG (iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) hasn't really turned around, indicating that even high-yield junk bonds are not showing significant strength. This suggests a lack of broad market confidence in riskier assets.

### 24. LQD (Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** ranging
**Key Levels:** 111.29 support, 112.00 resistance

Corporate bonds (LQD) are not looking too negative yet, but they are not showing strong upward momentum either. They are currently consolidating around the 111.29 support level. If corporates start to crash, it would be a significant warning sign for the broader market.

### 25. US 2Y Yield (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downward trend, trapped
**Key Levels:** 3.55% resistance, 3.411% support

The US 2-year yield has seen a big rejection from the 3.5% area and is continuing in a downward trend. However, it hasn't broken the all-important 3.4% level, suggesting it's currently 'trapped' with no clear direction. This will be watched closely, especially in conjunction with the 10-year yield.

### 26. XLY/XLP (American Consumer Ratio) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** declining trend
**Key Levels:** 1.30 support

The XLY/XLP ratio, which tracks the health of the American consumer, is not looking good. It's currently at support around 1.30, but the overall trend is downwards. This indicates weakness in consumer spending, which is a crucial component of the US economy.

### 27. Silver (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout and consolidation
**Key Levels:** 79.2244 support, 90.00 resistance

Silver has broken above a significant high at 79.2244 and is currently pressing into the 90.00 resistance level. This suggests a bullish bias, likely driven by geopolitical tensions and a recovery post-crash in metals.

### 28. Gold (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** recovery
**Key Levels:** 5132.83 resistance, 4797.84 support

Gold is showing a recovery after an 'epic crash' in metals. It's currently trading around 5132.83, with support at 4797.84. This upward movement is attributed to geopolitical tensions and a general recovery in precious metals.

### 29. UKOIL (Brent Crude Oil) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** broken resistance, consolidation
**Key Levels:** 72.85 resistance, 69.86 support, 78.90 resistance

UK Oil (Brent Crude Oil) has broken above resistance at 69.86 and is currently consolidating around 71.23. It's showing higher highs and higher lows, holding above the daily 20-moving average. The next resistance is at 72.85, with a stronger level at 78.90. Oil services, energy, and gas exploration have been strong plays this year.

### 30. IWM/SPY (Russell 2000 vs S&P 500 Ratio) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH FOR SMALL CAPS
**Pattern:** small caps outperforming
**Key Levels:** 0.3706 support, 0.4011 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** Russell underperforming since 2022

The IWM/SPY ratio shows that small caps (Russell 2000) have started to perform better than the S&P 500 over the last 3-6 months. This is a shift from the previous trend where the Russell had been underperforming since 2022. This suggests a change in market structure, where the market is not solely led by big tech stocks.

### 31. MAGS (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation below resistance
**Key Levels:** 64.69 resistance, 62.98 support, 60.97 support

The Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) has not taken out its higher high and has broken to a new low. It has stabilized around 62.98 support. While technically it has broken down, these stocks have generally been strong. If MAGS breaks through 64.50, it could signal a turn into positive territory. However, it's currently consolidating below resistance.

### 32. XLF (State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** short-term downtrend
**Key Levels:** 50.98 support, 53.59 resistance, 46.67 major support

Financials (XLF) are currently in a short-term downtrend, showing a lot of pressure. They have swung underneath a previous demand area around 50.98. This breaking down of financials, along with JP Morgan barely holding onto its support, is a story to watch as it could indicate broader financial system risks.

### 33. JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co.) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** barely holding support
**Key Levels:** 297.30 support, 274.81 major support, 317.51 resistance

JP Morgan, often considered a bellwether for financials, has barely held onto its support at 297.30. If financials continue to underperform and broaden into late-cycle concepts, this could pose a risk. A break below 274.81 would be a significant bearish signal.

### 34. QQQ (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation
**Key Levels:** 600.00 support, 595.00 support, 617.00 resistance

The QQQ has seen some trades come through, similar to the S&P 500, and is holding onto the 600.00-595.00 support level. This is good for now. The big level to break in the future is 617.00, which would likely happen if MAGS (Magnificent Seven) stocks also break their lower high/lower low complex.

### 35. NVDA (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH IF 195 BREAKS
**Pattern:** consolidation below positive gamma level
**Key Levels:** 195.00 positive gamma level, 170.00 support, 200.00 resistance, 210.00 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** historical post-earnings moves

NVDA has seen a nice big rebound in the last 24 hours, but markets often come to key points just before earnings. Earnings allow the market to move from one level to the next. If NVDA breaks through 195.00, it could trigger a positive gamma event, leading to a self-feeding rally towards 200.00 and 210.00. Conversely, 170.00 is a key support. Historically, NVDA has only missed earnings once in years, but the stock's movement depends on Wall Street's interpretation of forward guidance.

### 36. TSLA (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower highs and lower lows
**Key Levels:** 400.00 support, 435.00 resistance, 376.66 major support

Tesla is still in a series of lower highs and lower lows, with 400.00 acting as support. The most traded area is 435.00. If Tesla breaks through 435.00, it could be a strong bullish signal, but it's currently barely holding onto 400.00. This suggests continued weakness for Tesla.

### 37. BTC/USD (4h)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower highs and lower lows
**Key Levels:** 62906.07 major support, 68794.41 resistance, 70271.53 resistance

Bitcoin has been very weak, hitting a pretty interesting level at 62906.07 (major support). It has found a bit of a bid but still needs to make a higher high to confirm strength. The price action shows a series of lower highs and lower lows. The speaker thought it might swing the low (get under 60000) before bidding up. For now, Bitcoin is technically weak, despite hitting major support. Patience is key.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is showing signs of a late-cycle regime, characterized by divergence in sector performance (financials and housing weakness vs. energy and commodities strength), accelerating short interest in tech, and increasing public concern about the economy. The structure of the market is different, not being led by big tech stocks as in previous years. Bond market consolidation and potential breakdowns in housing and financial indicators further support this late-cycle view, suggesting increased risk and potential for volatility.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- NVDA earnings are the most important earnings of 2026 and could trigger significant market moves.
- A break above NVDA's $195.00 positive gamma level could lead to a squeeze towards $200.00 and $210.00.
- A break below SPX's 6800.00 could open up a 200-point channel trade to the downside.
- If the Pending Home Sales Index breaks below 70, it could signal potential issues in the broader financial system.
- A cluster of Hindenburg Omen signals, especially if NVDA fails to break into positive gamma, warrants caution for the S&P 500.
- If financials (XLF, JPM) continue to underperform, it could be a risk moving forward.
- Bitcoin is technically weak despite hitting major support at 62906.07 and needs to make a higher high to confirm strength.
- Yields (10Y, 2Y) are consolidating and trapped, but a break could bring them into focus, especially with changes at the Fed.
- The market is in a late-cycle regime, suggesting increased risk and potential for 'catastrophic' events at any point.

## All Instruments Mentioned
NVDA, SPX, BTC/USD, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, AVGO, MU, INTC, TXN, AMD, LRCX, AMAT, KLAC, TER, CSCO, COMM, GOOGL, META, JPM, V, BRK-B, HD, LOW, WMT, PG, KO, PEP, COST, T, VZ, RTX, GD, LMT, BA, NOC, GE, CAT, DE, MMM, DIS, NFLX, LLY, JNJ, MRK, PFE, XOM, CVX, EOG, SLB, OXY, QQQ, VOO, SNOW, TTD, ZM, CRM, ORAN, SMPS, DU, DELL, XYZ, INTU, ADBE, TD, W, HP, OAK, KDP, TJX, BMO, XLF, HYG, LQD, US 10Y Yield, US 2Y Yield, XLY/XLP, Silver, Gold, USOIL, UKOIL, IWM/SPY, MAGS

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-02-26 16:33:35*