# LIVE: US Stock Market Monday Open:
**Date:** 2026-03-01  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOhgnhE7ROE)

## Main Thesis
The market is at a critical juncture, with the S&P 500 potentially forming a top or consolidating before a further move up, while the DXY is showing signs of a potential breakout, which could pressure risk assets.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** potential topping pattern, consolidation, potential head and shoulders (left shoulder at 5200, head at 5250, right shoulder forming)
**Key Levels:** 5050 support, 5100 support, 5150 support, 5200 resistance, 5250 resistance

Atkinson notes the SPX is at a critical level, having pulled back from 5250. He highlights 5200 as a key resistance and 5150-5100 as support. He discusses the possibility of a topping pattern or a consolidation before a move higher. He points out the potential for a head and shoulders pattern with the left shoulder at 5200, head at 5250, and the current price action forming the right shoulder. He emphasizes the importance of the 5050-5100 area as a neckline for this pattern. He also mentions the possibility of a 'three peaks and a domed house' pattern, suggesting a potential reversal.

### 2. SPX (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** potential topping pattern, consolidation
**Key Levels:** 5050 support, 5100 support, 5200 resistance, 5250 resistance

Similar to the daily chart, Atkinson views the weekly SPX chart as being at a critical juncture. He reiterates the 5200-5250 area as resistance and the 5050-5100 area as crucial support. He suggests that a break below 5050 would be a significant bearish signal, confirming a potential topping pattern. He also mentions the possibility of a 'three peaks and a domed house' pattern, suggesting a potential reversal.

### 3. NDX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** potential topping pattern, consolidation
**Key Levels:** 17800 support, 18000 support, 18200 resistance, 18400 resistance

The NDX is showing a similar pattern to the SPX, with a potential topping formation. Atkinson points out 18200-18400 as resistance and 17800-18000 as support. He suggests that a break below 17800 would be a bearish signal, indicating a potential deeper correction. He notes that the NDX has been leading the market higher and is now showing signs of weakness.

### 4. DXY (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** ascending triangle, potential breakout
**Key Levels:** 103.50 support, 104.00 resistance, 104.50 resistance, 105.00 resistance

Atkinson highlights the DXY's strong performance and its potential for a breakout. He identifies an ascending triangle pattern with resistance around 104.50-105.00. He suggests that a break above this level would be a significant bullish signal for the dollar, potentially leading to a move towards 106-107. He emphasizes that a strong dollar is typically bearish for risk assets like equities and gold.

### 5. DXY (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** ascending triangle, potential breakout
**Key Levels:** 103.50 support, 104.00 resistance, 104.50 resistance, 105.00 resistance

The weekly DXY chart reinforces the daily view, showing a strong uptrend and the potential for a breakout from an ascending triangle. Atkinson reiterates the importance of the 104.50-105.00 resistance zone. He suggests that a successful breakout could lead to a sustained rally in the dollar, with significant implications for other markets.

### 6. EUR/USD (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** descending channel, potential breakdown
**Key Levels:** 1.0800 support, 1.0850 support, 1.0900 resistance

Atkinson views the EUR/USD as being in a downtrend, with a potential breakdown from a descending channel. He identifies 1.0800-1.0850 as key support. He suggests that a break below these levels would confirm a bearish bias and could lead to further declines towards 1.0700 or even lower. This aligns with his bullish view on the DXY.

### 7. Gold (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** consolidation, potential breakdown
**Key Levels:** 2000 support, 2020 support, 2050 resistance, 2070 resistance

Gold is consolidating after a recent rally, with Atkinson noting resistance around 2050-2070 and support at 2000-2020. He suggests that a strong DXY could put pressure on gold, potentially leading to a breakdown below 2000. He mentions the possibility of a 'three peaks and a domed house' pattern, suggesting a potential reversal.

### 8. Silver (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** consolidation, potential breakdown
**Key Levels:** 22.50 support, 23.00 support, 23.50 resistance, 24.00 resistance

Silver is showing a similar pattern to gold, consolidating after a rally. Atkinson identifies 23.50-24.00 as resistance and 22.50-23.00 as support. He suggests that a strong DXY and a weak gold price could lead to a breakdown in silver, with potential targets around 22.00 or lower.

### 9. Crude Oil (WTI) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** ascending channel, potential breakout
**Key Levels:** 78 support, 80 resistance, 82 resistance

Atkinson sees crude oil in an ascending channel, with resistance around 80-82. He suggests that a breakout above 82 could lead to a move towards 85 or higher. He notes that oil has been showing relative strength and could continue to rally.

### 10. 10Y Yield (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** ascending channel, potential breakout
**Key Levels:** 4.20% support, 4.30% resistance, 4.40% resistance

The 10-year yield is in an uptrend, with Atkinson highlighting resistance around 4.30%-4.40%. He suggests that a breakout above these levels could lead to a further increase in yields, potentially towards 4.50% or higher. He notes that rising yields are generally bearish for equities.

### 11. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** consolidation, potential topping pattern
**Key Levels:** 60000 support, 62000 support, 65000 resistance, 68000 resistance

Bitcoin is consolidating after a significant rally, with Atkinson identifying resistance around 65000-68000 and support at 60000-62000. He suggests that a strong DXY and a potential risk-off environment could put pressure on Bitcoin, leading to a deeper correction. He mentions the possibility of a 'three peaks and a domed house' pattern, suggesting a potential reversal.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
Atkinson discusses the potential for a 'risk-off' environment driven by a strengthening US Dollar (DXY) and rising bond yields. He notes that a strong DXY typically pressures risk assets like equities, gold, and crypto. He also mentions the possibility of a 'three peaks and a domed house' pattern across multiple assets (SPX, Gold, Bitcoin), which is a topping pattern suggesting a significant reversal.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch the 5050-5100 level on SPX as critical support for a potential head and shoulders neckline.
- A DXY breakout above 104.50-105.00 would be a significant bullish signal for the dollar and bearish for risk assets.
- A break below 17800 on NDX would confirm a bearish bias.
- A break below 2000 on Gold would be a bearish signal.
- A break below 60000 on Bitcoin would indicate a deeper correction.
- Crude oil (WTI) could rally further if it breaks above 82.
- Rising 10Y yields above 4.30%-4.40% would be bearish for equities.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SPX, NDX, DXY, EUR/USD, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil (WTI), 10Y Yield, Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

---
*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-03-01 23:00:14*