# The 2nd Largest Trade Ever...
**Date:** 2026-03-01  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oHWaZKcuFXc)

## Main Thesis
The market is currently range-bound, with significant dark pool activity in energy stocks and defensive moves ahead of geopolitical events. While historical data suggests potential drawdowns, key levels must be broken before confirming a major market shift. Retail traders are showing a split sentiment, while institutional flows indicate a move into energy and a potential 'AI washing' trend in job postings.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. USOIL (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 70.352 resistance, 65.668 support

The chart shows USOIL in a range-bound pattern between 65.668 and 70.352. Atkinson highlights the second-largest dark pool activity ever recorded from Wall Street into oil ahead of weekend events. He points to the current price action near the 65.668 support level and questions if this is the start of something much bigger.

### 2. QQQ (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 635.65 resistance, 588.50 support, 607.29 current price

The QQQ chart shows a range-bound market between 588.50 and 635.65. Atkinson emphasizes the importance of options walls and retail trader activity. He notes that NVIDIA had great earnings but seems to be trapping liquidity, questioning if this could be the start of a bigger move.

### 3. SPX (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 6993.83 resistance, 6798.74 support, 6878.89 current price

The SPX chart shows a range-bound market between 6798.74 and 6993.83. Atkinson discusses options walls and the current range-bound markets. He highlights the importance of what retail traders and Wall Street are doing.

### 4. NVDA (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** trapping liquidity
**Key Levels:** 195.16 positive gamma level, 177.19 current price

The NVDA chart shows the price at 177.19, below a positive gamma level of 195.16. Atkinson notes that despite great earnings, NVIDIA seems to be trapping liquidity, suggesting a potential downward move. He questions if this could be the start of something much bigger.

### 5. Market Heatmap (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** defensive moves

The market heatmap shows a mix of red (down) and green (up) stocks. Atkinson points out clusters of activity, the second-largest dark pool ever on energy stocks (XOM, CVX), and defensive moves in consumer defensive (WMT, KO, PEP) and healthcare (LLY, JNJ) sectors ahead of weekend information, possibly due to geopolitical events.

### 6. S&P 500 Index Performance After Geopolitical and Major Historical Events (1M, 3M, 6M, 12M)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** mixed returns, potential drawdowns
**Historical Comparison:** historical market shock events since 1941

A table from Ryan Detrick (Carson Research) shows S&P 500 returns after various market shock events since the 1940s. Atkinson notes that while the market tends to hold its own, it doesn't always skyrocket. He highlights that some recent events have seen bullish movements over three months, but warns against assuming this will always happen. He emphasizes looking at data stats and flows rather than opinions.

### 7. S&P 500 Performance Following Each Event (List of U.S. Overseas Military Strikes Since World War II) (10D, 30D, 60D, 90D, 120D, 180D, 365D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** potential drawdowns, mid-term election slump
**Historical Comparison:** historical U.S. military strikes since WWII

A table from Bluekurtic Market Insights shows S&P 500 performance following U.S. overseas military strikes since WWII. Atkinson points out that there tend to be significant drawdowns during these times. He notes that March often starts well, but April can see problems, leading to a 'mid-term election slump.' He mentions that the average 12-month max loss is 6.7% and max drawdown is 11% for similar events. He advises taking these stats with a grain of salt but emphasizes that each event is unique.

### 8. XLE - Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend, monster transaction
**Key Levels:** 56.15 current price

The XLE chart shows a strong upward trend, with a current price of 56.15. Atkinson highlights the second-largest dark pool activity ever recorded on energy stocks, occurring near the market close. He suggests that oil stocks are likely to open higher based on this news, aligning with previous observations of rising geopolitical tensions and the strong performance of oil services and stocks in 2026.

### 9. IG Weekend Wall Street Readings (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** 64% long on market
**Key Levels:** 7182.3 sell, 7226.3 buy

A screenshot of IG Weekend Wall Street readings shows a market up +7.11% with 64% of client accounts long. Atkinson notes that the markets were up or down about 0.2-0.3%, but these are illiquid readings. He reiterates that geopolitical tensions seem to be rising globally, often leading to clusters of events.

### 10. S&P 500 in March: When Do Lows Typically Form? (1950-2025) (Monthly (March))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rally at beginning, drop, then strength at end
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 average price path for March (1950-2025)

A chart from Bluekurtic Market Insights shows the average S&P 500 price path for March. Atkinson notes that the market sometimes rallies at the beginning of March, drops a little, and then sees strength at the end of the month. He mentions that the general strength usually comes through near the end of the month, with averages shown over time. He will discuss this further in subsequent videos.

### 11. Sam Altman says the quiet part out loud, confirming some companies are 'AI washing' by blaming unrelated layoffs on the technology (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** AI washing

A news article headline about Sam Altman confirming 'AI washing' by companies blaming layoffs on technology. Atkinson relates this to a previous discussion about Block sacking 40% of its workforce. He questions if AI is being used as an excuse for layoffs.

### 12. Job Postings For Software Engineers Are Rapidly Rising (Daily, 21dma (Jan 2024 - Jan 2026))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rising job postings, ghost listings

A chart from Citadel Securities and Indeed shows rising job postings for software engineers and overall job postings. Atkinson notes that many viewers believe these are 'ghost listings' (fake job postings). He suggests that entry-level jobs are struggling, while those with coding skills are getting more work, indicating a 'tale of two stories' in the job market.

### 13. VDD - Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound, dark pool activity
**Key Levels:** 645.54 current price

The VDD chart shows a range-bound market. Atkinson highlights large dark pool activity before the current price action. He notes that the ETF dropped after selling at a supply zone and has now come back down to a demand zone, suggesting it will open somewhere around there on Monday. He emphasizes that flows matter more than opinions.

### 14. QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1 (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound, largest cluster ever
**Key Levels:** 608.65 current price

The QQQ chart shows a range-bound market. Atkinson points out the largest cluster ever recorded on Thursday, a 5.4 billion dollar transaction across 55 trades. He notes that the market dropped after this, indicating significant dark pool activity within this tight range.

### 15. NFXL - Direxion Daily NFLX Bull 2X Shares (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downward trend, large transaction
**Key Levels:** 65.00 resistance, 45.00 support, 30.20 current price

The NFXL chart shows a downward trend, with the price at 30.20. Atkinson notes that Netflix dropped out of a deal to acquire Warner Bros., which he sees as a 'blessing' for Netflix, as media acquisitions often don't work out. He highlights a large transaction on this 2x leveraged fund, suggesting it could be the start of something good for Netflix, as price action often shows flow before news.

### 16. The next 100points for the SP500 will be? (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** split sentiment

A Twitter poll shows 48.5% of votes for 'UP' and 51.5% for 'DOWN' for the next 100-point move in the S&P 500. Atkinson notes that before the news of Iran's Supreme Leader being killed, votes were around 65-70% for 'DOWN.' He attributes the current 50/50 split to the market being sideways and acknowledges that there's a case for both bulls and bears.

### 17. Sentiment Poll with S&P (net sentiment) (Weekly (May 2020 - Mar 2026))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** sideways action after negative sentiment

A chart from Helene Meisler (@Chartfest1) shows a sentiment poll overlaid with the S&P 500. Atkinson notes that often when community sentiment is very negative, the market tends to move sideways or even closer to the top. He advises taking sentiment reports with a grain of salt but finds them interesting.

### 18. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Forward P/E (Annual) (Annual (2017-2026))

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** basing pattern
**Key Levels:** 21.52 current P/E

A chart from Patient Investor (@PatientInvestor) and Fiscal.ai shows NVIDIA's forward P/E ratio. Atkinson highlights that NVIDIA's P/E is coming down to some of its cheapest valuations in years, historically a basing pattern for the stock. He identifies 170 as a key zone to watch, emphasizing its importance across multiple timeframes.

### 19. NVIDIA Corp - Intraday Retail Flows (Intraday)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** retail buying, price drop
**Key Levels:** 198.00 resistance, 180.00 support

A chart from J. The Helper (@JTheHelper1) and Vanda shows NVIDIA's intraday retail flows. Atkinson points out that retail traders massively bought NVIDIA after the news, leading to a price drop. He reiterates his belief that the best trades are not where all eyes are, and that if something is in the press, it's in the price. He notes that NVIDIA's earnings have catalyzed software and Netflix, but retail buying is driving the price down.

### 20. Forward P/E-Ratios S&P 500 Sectors (5 years)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** technology becoming cheaper, energy rising

A chart from Duality Research shows forward P/E ratios for various S&P 500 sectors over the last five years. Atkinson notes that technology stocks are becoming cheaper in terms of fundamentals. He also highlights consumer staples, energy, utilities, and materials starting to see price increases. He acknowledges that some sectors have had epic runs but emphasizes that this chart shows interesting stats.

### 21. SPX (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 6991.18 resistance, 6800.08 support, 6878.89 current price

The SPX weekly chart shows the market trading between 6800.08 and 6991.18. Atkinson suggests the market might open slightly negative on Monday. He emphasizes that the weekly 20-moving average (mean reversion level) is the most important zone to watch, and that the market hasn't broken the 6800-6770 support or the 7000 resistance. He concludes that it's still a 'stock picker's market' or 'sector selection market'.

### 22. US500 (2h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 6947.2 options high level, 6819.1 options low level, 6864.3 current price

The US500 2-hour chart shows the market trading between options high and low levels. Atkinson notes that the market is still trading right in the most traded area, reinforcing the idea of a stock picker's market with nothing really changing.

### 23. IV*OI (S&P 500) (All Expiries (2026-02-27))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gamma walls
**Key Levels:** 7000 call resistance, 6800 put support

A chart from MenthorQ shows implied volatility multiplied by open interest for S&P 500 options. Atkinson highlights the 7000 level as a huge breakout for bulls and the 6800 level as the major put wall across all expirations. He explains that gamma walls often trap markets, and when broken, can lead to an explosion in hedging, creating a 'waterfall effect' on the downside. He notes a cluster of puts underneath the current price.

### 24. GEX Profile (QQQ) (Various Expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gamma walls
**Key Levels:** 600 call/put resistance

A chart from MenthorQ shows GEX profiles for QQQ options across various expirations. Atkinson notes that 600 is a key level for both call and put resistance, indicating a similar trapped market as the S&P 500.

### 25. GEX Profile (TSLA) (Various Expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gamma walls
**Key Levels:** 400 put wall, 420-430 call wall

A chart from MenthorQ shows GEX profiles for TSLA options across various expirations. Atkinson identifies 400 as the put wall and 420-430 as the call wall. He notes that there isn't much activity in Tesla options yet, and will update when more information is available.

### 26. GEX Profile (NVDA) (Various Expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gamma walls
**Key Levels:** 170 put support, 200 call resistance

A chart from MenthorQ shows GEX profiles for NVDA options across various expirations. Atkinson highlights 170 as the key put support and 200 as the call resistance. He emphasizes that 170 is also the best technical level. He warns that if NVIDIA drops below 170, it could signal that 'something is not right' in the semiconductor sector, which he considers the 'backbone of the AI bubble'.

### 27. SMH - VanEck Semiconductor ETF (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** upward trend, sell-off
**Key Levels:** 419.19 resistance, 376.94 support, 406.37 current price

The SMH weekly chart shows semiconductors breaking to a new high (419.19) and then selling off. Atkinson notes that it's still technically in an upward trend but the weekend close was 'nasty.' He identifies 376.94 as a key level to watch in the future. He reiterates that NVIDIA is the key watch, especially the 170 level.

### 28. NVDA (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound, retail activity
**Key Levels:** 190.54 resistance, 170.33 support, 177.10 current price

The NVDA 4-hour chart shows the price at 177.10, trading within a range. Atkinson notes that NVIDIA is still holding up but is 'floating on down' due to retail activity. He believes many people bought it because it was in the news, reinforcing the 'if it's in the press, it's in the price' mantra. He advises using big stocks as catalysts for smaller stocks.

### 29. US02Y - US Government Bonds 2 Yr Yield (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** sharp drop
**Key Levels:** 3.383% support, 3.391% current yield

The US02Y chart shows a sharp drop in yields, falling heavily into the Friday session. Atkinson suggests this indicates another rate cut is coming, aligning with the new Fed chair and Trump's desire for cuts. He notes that this could signal weakness in the economy, but distinguishes between the economy and Wall Street's AI bubble. He also mentions seeing 'pretty bad' numbers from Vegas, which can be a canary in the coal mine.

### 30. MSFT (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** lower lows, gap fill
**Key Levels:** 408.24 support, 392.75 resistance, 385.46 support

The MSFT 4-hour chart shows the market dropping to a series of lower lows, filling a gap. Atkinson notes that it found a doji on the weekly chart with a lot of volume. He reiterates that something different is happening between the American consumer and Wall Street's AI bubble.

### 31. IGV - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downward trend, potential pickup
**Key Levels:** 89.32 resistance, 81.57 current price

The IGV weekly chart shows a downward trend, with the price at 81.57. Atkinson notes that since NVIDIA's earnings, software has picked up a little. He will be watching to see if it can break through key zones like 83.50 and 87. He highlights massive volumes in this ETF.

### 32. NFLX (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** downward trend, breakout
**Key Levels:** 83.63 resistance, 72.91 current price

The NFLX daily chart shows a downward trend, with the price at 72.91. Atkinson notes that Netflix 'got skyrocketed off that news' (no deal with Warner Bros.), breaking the downward trendline and rallying up. He reiterates that if you're in it, cool, but chasing is not a good idea, emphasizing an 'abundance mindset'.

### 33. ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** held relatively well
**Key Levels:** 83.63 resistance, 72.91 current price

The ARKK daily chart shows the ETF holding relatively well, with the price at 72.91. Atkinson notes that technology is now cheaper than many other sectors, making it a sector to watch. He acknowledges that many people are 'freaking out' about oil, but reiterates that oil has been discussed on the channel for a long time.

### 34. USOIL (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend, good load
**Key Levels:** 67.373 current price

The USOIL daily chart shows a strong upward trend, with the price at 67.373. Atkinson notes that oil ended up being a 'really good load' if buying based on technicals alone, specifically the 20-daily moving average. He highlights that geopolitical tensions are causing spikes in oil, especially where events are happening. He suggests targets of 70 and 74-75, but warns against chasing.

### 35. HS1! - Hang Seng Index Futures (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downward trendline
**Key Levels:** 26465 support, 27346 resistance, 26229 current price

The HS1! 4-hour chart shows the Chinese market still holding up but with a downward trendline. Atkinson notes that something above 27200 will be key to break the trend. He questions if it can hold, as it hasn't had 'epic price action' recently.

### 36. ETHUSDT (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** bounce off lows, large structure
**Key Levels:** 2151.13 possible bull level, 1829.71 support, 2013.73 current price

The ETHUSDT daily chart shows Ethereum bouncing off its lows, creating a very big structure. Atkinson notes that it came down to scary levels, went up, then down, and then spiked back up off all the news this weekend. He identifies 2151.13 as a possible bull level.

### 37. BTCUSDT (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downward trendline, heating up
**Key Levels:** 68794.41 resistance, 62906.07 support, 67326.30 current price

The BTCUSDT daily chart shows Bitcoin spiking up into the 67-68k range, back into the demand zone. Atkinson notes that if it breaks the downward trendline (all the movement down), things are starting to 'heat up' for this demand zone. He suggests another week potentially closing to the upside, making it a space to watch.

### 38. LQD - iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** no collapse yet
**Key Levels:** 111.68 current price

The LQD weekly chart shows corporate bonds. Atkinson notes that corporate bonds haven't 'freaked out' or 'absolutely collapsed' yet, indicating that it doesn't look like a systemic financial failure just yet. He is watching this closely.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The video discusses rising geopolitical tensions and their impact on markets, leading to defensive moves in certain sectors and increased dark pool activity in energy. Atkinson also touches on the 'AI bubble' and 'AI washing' in job postings, suggesting a disconnect between the American consumer and Wall Street's narrative. He highlights the importance of following institutional flows rather than opinions, especially in a market that is expected to become 'crazier' in 2026.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch for key levels to be broken before confirming major market shifts.
- Energy stocks are likely to open higher based on recent dark pool activity.
- The 170 level for NVIDIA is crucial; a drop below it could signal problems in the semiconductor sector.
- The 6800-6770 support and 7000 resistance levels are key for the S&P 500.
- The 600 level is key for QQQ options.
- The 400-430 range is key for Tesla options.
- US bond yields dropping heavily could indicate upcoming rate cuts and economic weakness.
- Watch 376 for semiconductors (SMH).
- Watch 83.50 and 87 for software (IGV).
- Watch 35 for IBIT (Bitcoin ETF).
- Watch 27200 for Chinese markets (Hang Seng).
- Watch 2151.13 for Ethereum (ETHUSDT).
- Watch 68794.41 for Bitcoin (BTCUSDT).
- Corporate bonds (LQD) have not collapsed yet, but are being watched for signs of systemic failure.
- Follow the flows, not opinions, as markets are expected to get 'crazier' in 2026.

## All Instruments Mentioned
USOIL, QQQ, SPX, NVDA, XOM, CVX, WMT, KO, PEP, LLY, JNJ, XLE, IG, VDD, NFXL, SMH, US02Y, MSFT, IGV, NFLX, ARKK, HS1!, ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT, LQD, SILVER, GOLD, IBIT, TSLA

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-03-01 23:02:57*