# This Is Starting To Look Worrying...
**Date:** 2026-03-03  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jUxqQB4sVs)

## Main Thesis
The market is currently in a late-cycle stage, characterized by range-bound indices, rising delinquencies in consumer debt, and a shift in leadership from technology to energy and materials. While some tech stocks are holding support, there are worrying signs in the bond market and credit default swaps, suggesting potential underlying issues.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 6999.51 resistance, 6792.05 support, 6881.63 current level

The S&P 500 is currently range-bound between 6792.05 and 6999.51. The market has held key levels, but there's no clear directional bias. The speaker notes that delinquencies are at levels not seen in almost a decade, which could impact markets.

### 2. Oracle 5Y CDS (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rising trend
**Historical Comparison:** widest level since 2009 (GFC)

Oracle's 5-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are back to their widest level since the 2009 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This indicates increased perceived risk around Oracle and potentially other tech companies, as the bond market often sniffs out problems before the stock market. The speaker highlights that tech stocks are now cheaper in forward P/E than many other sectors.

### 3. US Loans in Delinquency (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rising trend
**Historical Comparison:** highest since 2017

The share of US loans in delinquency is at its highest since 2017, with 30-day, 60-day, and 120+ day late payments all rising. This indicates stress in the middle class, which the Fed has acknowledged as a concern, potentially leading to further rate cuts. The speaker notes the trajectory is concerning, similar to the lead-up to the GFC.

### 4. US Debt 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type (quarterly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rising trend

Student loans, credit card debt, and auto loans are all showing increasing delinquency rates (90+ days late). Student loans are up due to the end of forgiveness, and credit card and auto loan delinquencies are also spiking, indicating strain on the middle class.

### 5. S&P 500 Sector Performance: 2025 vs. 2026 YTD (annual/YTD)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH FOR TECH
**Pattern:** shift in leadership

In 2025, Technology led the S&P 500, but in 2026 YTD, Energy, Materials, and Staples are leading, while Technology and Financials are underperforming. This indicates a shift in market leadership, with the speaker noting that energy and materials have been favored for months.

### 6. Cap vs Equal-Weight: How different is the story? (Tech Hardware) (year-to-date)

**Bias:** BEARISH FOR SOFTWARE, BULLISH FOR HARDWARE
**Pattern:** divergence

This chart compares cap-weighted returns to average stock returns across sectors. Tech Hardware (AI backbone) is still powering on, showing strong average stock returns, while Software and Financials are significantly underperforming in cap-weighted returns, indicating a concentration of gains in a few large tech hardware companies.

### 7. S&P 500: Days to Close Above Each 1,000-Point Milestone After Intraday Hit (historical data)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** struggling to close above milestones
**Key Levels:** 7000 milestone
**Historical Comparison:** past 1000-point milestones

The S&P 500 has historically closed above 1000-point milestones quickly (0-2 days). However, it has been 20 days since the S&P 500 hit 7000 intraday, and it has not yet closed above it, suggesting a struggle to maintain upward momentum. This indicates a 'pit' or range-bound market with sideways price action.

### 8. OLLU (MicroSectors Oil & Gas Exploration & Production 3X Leveraged ETN) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** breakout into supply
**Key Levels:** 45.00 resistance, 25.00 support

OLLU saw a big trade and hit into supply zones around $45.00, suggesting profit-taking by Wall Street. The speaker notes that when everyone is talking about a trade, it's often when the hardest trades occur, implying a potential reversal or consolidation after a strong rally.

### 9. XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** breakout into supply
**Key Levels:** 50.00 resistance

XLE, the energy sector ETF, also showed a monster spike in short interest as it broke through multi-year highs. This indicates a short squeeze, where short sellers are forced to buy back shares, driving prices higher. The speaker emphasizes following the flows and price action rather than just the news.

### 10. XLK (Technology Sector ETF) Short Interest (weekly)

**Bias:** POTENTIAL FOR SHORT SQUEEZE
**Pattern:** rising short interest

Short interest in XLK (technology sector ETF) has spiked significantly, indicating that hedge funds have been trying to short tech. This sets up a potential for a short squeeze in the future if prices continue to rise.

### 11. XLE (Energy Sector ETF) Short Interest (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (DUE TO SHORT SQUEEZE)
**Pattern:** monster spike in short interest

XLE also saw a monster spike in short interest as it broke through multi-year highs, leading to a squeeze. The speaker highlights that this is why energy has been performing so well, as short sellers are forced to cover their positions.

### 12. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (15-minute)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs, then higher high
**Key Levels:** 6949.4 options high level, 6812.8 options low level

The S&P 500 on a 15-minute timeframe went from making a series of lower lows and lower highs to a slightly higher high, but is still coming off support. The speaker notes that while it's not out of the woods yet, Nvidia holds the key.

### 13. S&P 500 Options (GEX) (various expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH (DUE TO RESISTANCE)
**Pattern:** call walls at higher levels
**Key Levels:** 7000 call wall, 6900 call wall, 6800 put support

There are massive call walls around the 7000-point level for various expirations, and a 6900 call wall for the next expiration. This suggests strong resistance at these levels, potentially limiting upside movement. If the market drops below 6800, it could create a waterfall effect, while a break above 7000 could lead to a squeeze.

### 14. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) Options (IV*OI) (all expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BULLISH (HOLDING SUPPORT)
**Pattern:** strong call resistance, strong put support
**Key Levels:** 200 call resistance, 170 put support

Nvidia has a massive call resistance at $200 and strong put support at $170. The stock has been holding the $170 floor, which is a key zone for both bulls and bears. The speaker notes that the bulls managed to push the stock back up to $182, holding the $170 floor.

### 15. TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) Options (GEX) (various expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BULLISH (HOLDING SUPPORT)
**Pattern:** strong put support
**Key Levels:** 400 put support

Tesla has strong put support at $400, which is currently holding as a floor.

### 16. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** hit resistance
**Key Levels:** 70.738 resistance

US Oil hit into resistance, suggesting a potential pullback or consolidation. The speaker notes that this is why they often say 'if it's in the press, it's in the price'.

### 17. UKOIL (CFDs on Brent Crude Oil) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** rallied into resistance, then bounced off
**Key Levels:** 81.41 resistance, 78.90 resistance, 78.08 resistance, 73.09 resistance, 69.86 support

Brent Crude Oil rallied directly into previous resistance and supply zones around $78.90-$81.41, then bounced off. The market had already priced in the rally before the news dropped, reinforcing the 'if it's in the press, it's in the price' adage. Consolidation is expected after such a big move.

### 18. XLE (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** big rally up
**Key Levels:** 57.04 resistance, 52.07 support

XLE, the energy sector ETF, has seen a big rally up, but is now hitting resistance. The speaker implies that this rally was already priced in due to previous flows.

### 19. XOP (State Street SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** hit resistance
**Key Levels:** 159.56 resistance

XOP, another oil and gas ETF, also hit into resistance, cross-correlating with other energy markets and suggesting a potential pullback.

### 20. ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BULLISH
**Pattern:** bounce off support
**Key Levels:** 76.80 resistance, 74.22 resistance, 73.91 support

ARKK saw a bounce of 1.8%, holding support around $73.91. This tech-focused ETF is showing some resilience, but is still facing resistance at higher levels.

### 21. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (daily/weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding support, volume spiking
**Key Levels:** 89.32 resistance, 82.57 support

Software stocks (IGV) are holding up surprisingly well, with volume spiking after a significant drop. This is the first time the speaker has talked positively about software in a long time, suggesting a potential bottoming process.

### 22. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding major support
**Key Levels:** 170.00 support, 200.00 resistance

Nvidia is holding the $170 major support zone. While the pre-market was volatile, the stock has maintained this key level. A break below $170 could lead to a head and shoulders pattern, which would be very bearish, but for now, the support is holding.

### 23. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trendline, boosting
**Key Levels:** 317.99 support

Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is holding an upward trendline and boosting, indicating continued strength in the sector. This is the 'backbone' of the AI movement, and its continued strength suggests overall market resilience despite other concerns.

### 24. US Government Bonds 2YR Yield (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** spiking up
**Key Levels:** 3.17 resistance

2-year US government bond yields spiked up, which is counter-intuitive but often happens as money flows to safe havens during market uncertainty. If it breaks above 3.17, it's an early sign of market freaks.

### 25. US Government Bonds 10YR Yield (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** spiking up after new lows

10-year US government bond yields also spiked up after almost breaking to new lows, indicating similar safe-haven flows and market anxiety.

### 26. Hang Seng Index Futures (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** head and shoulders (broken)
**Key Levels:** 24985 support, 27373 resistance

Chinese stocks (Hang Seng Index Futures) have broken a head and shoulders pattern to the downside. While the speaker believes the pattern still looks bullish on higher timeframes, a drop to 25000 is possible, and alerts are set for further downside.

### 27. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 24271.2 support, 25500 resistance

The Nasdaq 100 is range-bound, holding 24000 support every time it's tested. It has not yet broken through the upside alert, indicating continued sideways movement. This reinforces the idea of a stock-picker's market.

### 28. US2000 (US 2000 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** nice bounce
**Key Levels:** 2578.5 support, 2438.6 first major target

The Russell 2000 (US2000) saw a really nice bounce, indicating that small-cap stocks are performing better than expected since the Fed's rate cuts last year. This is a broadening pattern, which initially looks good but can be scary.

### 29. IWM/SPY (Russell 2000 vs S&P 500 ratio) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** broadening pattern

The ratio of Russell 2000 to S&P 500 shows a broadening pattern, which means the Russell has done better than expected since the Fed's cut last year. While this initially looks good, it can be a scary pattern in the long run.

### 30. XLV (State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily/weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** new weekly close high
**Key Levels:** 154.69 support

Healthcare stocks (XLV) broke a new weekly close high, indicating a strong upward movement in a generally dull market. This is another sector to watch for potential opportunities.

### 31. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (weekly/daily/4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding demand, bulls putting pressure
**Key Levels:** 65170.99 support, 72062.12 resistance, 70000 mental barrier

Bitcoin is holding a big demand zone around $65,170.99. While it's still technically in a bearish chart, the bulls are putting pressure on it, and it has held support after recent news. A break above $72,062.12 would be a significant bullish sign, while $70,000 is a mental barrier.

### 32. ETHUSDT (Ethereum / TetherUS) (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding support, not through resistance
**Key Levels:** 1896.35 support, 2155.05 resistance

Ethereum is holding support around $1896.35 but has not yet broken through the $2155.05 resistance. The speaker emphasizes the need to see all cryptocurrencies breaking resistance at the same time for a strong bullish signal (cross-correlation).

### 33. HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** not activated down
**Key Levels:** 79.90 support

High-yield junk bonds (HYG) have not yet activated a downside move, indicating that the demand for these riskier bonds is still holding for now.

### 34. JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co.) (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** not broken low yet
**Key Levels:** 292.27 support

JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) has not yet broken its low, indicating that financials are still holding for now, despite broader concerns.

### 35. XLF (State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF) (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** demand holding
**Key Levels:** 50.69 support

The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) is also seeing demand holding, with no significant breakdown yet, aligning with JPM's chart.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a late-cycle stage, characterized by a shift from technology leadership to energy and materials. There's a loss of momentum in broader indices, with many markets being range-bound. The bond market is showing early warning signs of risk, particularly with rising delinquencies and widening credit default spreads for some tech companies. This suggests a need for caution and a focus on stock-picking rather than broad market trends.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch for a break above 7000 on the S&P 500 for a potential squeeze, or a break below 6800 for a waterfall effect.
- Monitor Nvidia's $170 support level; a break could signal a bearish head and shoulders pattern.
- Observe bond yields for further spikes, as this indicates money flowing to safe havens and market anxiety.
- Pay attention to delinquencies in consumer loans (student, credit card, auto) as they signal middle-class stress and potential Fed rate cuts.
- Look for a break above $440 on Tesla for a sign of strength, as it's currently in a downward trend.
- For Bitcoin, a break above $72,000 would be a bullish confirmation, while $70,000 is a mental resistance.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SPX, NVDA, UKOIL, USOIL, Oracle 5Y CDS, US Loans in Delinquency, US Debt 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type, S&P 500 Sector Performance: 2025 vs. 2026 YTD, Cap vs Equal-Weight: How different is the story? (Tech Hardware), S&P 500: Days to Close Above Each 1,000-Point Milestone After Intraday Hit, OLLU, XLE, XLK, ARKK, IGV, SMH, US Government Bonds 2YR Yield, US Government Bonds 10YR Yield, Hang Seng Index Futures, NAS100, US2000, IWM/SPY, XLV, BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, HYG, JPM, XLF, Gold, Silver, Copper, US Dollar Index Futures, MSFT, TSLA, MAGS

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-03-02 23:02:25*