# Investors Go All In…
**Date:** 2026-03-05  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O42KphQFG3A)

## Main Thesis
Investors are heavily hedging against a market downturn, with record put delta positioning, while market breadth is narrowing and some sectors are showing signs of weakness, suggesting a late-cycle bull market with potential for increased volatility.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPX (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 6999.51 resistance, 6792.05 support

The S&P 500 is currently trading within a range, with resistance at 6999.51 and support at 6792.05. The market is only a few percentage points off all-time highs, but there's significant hedging protection being bought by investors.

### 2. IGV (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downward trend with dark pool transactions
**Key Levels:** 89.32 resistance, 85.65 support

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) is showing a downward trend with massive dark pool transactions and volumes. This suggests potential bubbles popping and key levels being reached.

### 3. SMH/SPY (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downward trend
**Key Levels:** 0.6200 resistance, 0.4800 support

The SMH/SPY ratio, representing semiconductors relative to the S&P 500, is showing a downward trend, indicating weakness in the semiconductor sector. This is another sign of potential bubbles popping and key levels being reached.

### 4. BTC/USDT (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downward trend with potential for reversal
**Key Levels:** 72824.53 bullish zone, 65170.99 support

Bitcoin has seen significant moves, with flows starting to heat up in crypto. The price is currently in a 'Bullish Zone' between 72,225.72 and 72,824.53, but has been trending downwards. The meme 'All the puts we bought went out worthless, puts were a hedge, right?' suggests investors were caught off guard by recent price action.

### 5. Estimated S&P 500 Customer Put Delta Positioning (Jan 2010 - Jan 2026)

**Bias:** BEARISH (INVESTOR SENTIMENT)
**Pattern:** record high put positioning
**Key Levels:** -50bn to -60bn
**Historical Comparison:** over 15 years

This chart shows the largest amount of customer put delta positioning in over 15 years, indicating significant fear and hedging in the market. While Wall Street has been rejecting downward movements, this level of put positioning suggests a potential for brutal moves if the market does fall, or a squeeze in the opposite direction if it rises.

### 6. RSP Fund Flows, Periodic (ETF) (M) / MAGS Fund Flows, Periodic (ETF) (M) (2017-2026)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (SHOWING SECTOR ROTATION)
**Pattern:** divergence in fund flows
**Key Levels:** RSP: 5.0bn, MAGS: -388.33M

The Magnificent Seven (MAGS) has seen less fund flows recently, while the equal-weighted market (RSP) has seen increased flows, especially in the last six months since the Federal Reserve started cutting rates. This indicates a shift towards a stock and sector selection market, suggesting a late-cycle bull market.

### 7. U.S. Manufacturing Jobs (2019-present)

**Bias:** BEARISH (ECONOMIC WEAKNESS)
**Pattern:** declining manufacturing jobs
**Key Levels:** 12.8 million peak

Factory job losses have been worse than previously thought, indicating rising unemployment in the US and other Western nations. This puts pressure on central banks to cut rates, which could lead to inflationary pressures, creating a 'very big problem' for central banks and potentially extreme market volatility.

### 8. S&P 500 when Hindenburg Omen while S&P is below 100 day moving average (1970-2020)

**Bias:** BEARISH (POTENTIAL FOR PULLBACKS)
**Pattern:** Hindenburg Omen signals followed by pullbacks
**Key Levels:** red dots indicate Hindenburg Omen signals
**Historical Comparison:** multiple historical instances

The Hindenburg Omen, a bearish indicator, has shown another read. While it doesn't guarantee a breakout to the downside, it often precedes pullbacks over the next couple of months. The chart shows numerous instances where Hindenburg Omen clusters (red dots) were followed by market declines, especially when the S&P 500 was below its 100-day moving average.

### 9. EWY - iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (May 2023 - Apr 2026)

**Bias:** BEARISH (BUBBLE POPPING)
**Pattern:** rapid ascent followed by sharp drop
**Key Levels:** $60 support, $140+ peak

The South Korean market has been 'absolutely ripping' due to data centers and memory, gaining over 150% in less than 12 months. However, it recently experienced a 'bubbly area' starting to pop, losing 20% in 2.5 days. Massive transactions suggest some are trying to 'buy the dip,' but caution is advised as easy gains are likely over.

### 10. IGV - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (Jan 2026 - Mar 2026)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (WATCHING FOR BREAKOUT)
**Pattern:** range-bound with dark pool clusters
**Key Levels:** $85.85 resistance, $78.67 support

The software sector (IGV) has seen dark pool clusters, indicating interest at current price levels. While this doesn't guarantee an upward move, it suggests some strength is appearing. The price action is key, and flows are being monitored for a potential breakout from the current range.

### 11. Microsoft (MSFT) and RSI (14 week) (2010-2026)

**Bias:** BULLISH (POTENTIAL FOR REBOUND)
**Pattern:** oversold RSI with call buying
**Key Levels:** RSI below 30 (oversold)

Microsoft's RSI (14 week) is oversold, and someone is starting to buy calls on the stock. This suggests a potential rebound, especially as the narrative around AI has put pressure on the stock. The oversold condition, combined with call buying, indicates interest in a potential upward move.

### 12. KWEB (China tech ETF) and RSI (14 day) (2014-2026)

**Bias:** BULLISH (POTENTIAL FOR REBOUND)
**Pattern:** oversold RSI
**Key Levels:** RSI below 20 (oversold)
**Historical Comparison:** since 2015

China's tech sector (KWEB) has been pushed down, with its RSI (14 day) now in the oversold area. Historically, when the RSI falls below 20, it has often led to positive returns in the short to medium term. This, combined with the Hang Seng Index sitting on support, could bode well for structural demand.

### 13. PSQ - ProShares Short QQQ (Feb 2026 - Mar 2026)

**Bias:** BEARISH (SHORT INTEREST)
**Pattern:** short interest with dark pool activity
**Key Levels:** $30.53 current price

Interesting shorts are coming through on the QQQ (ProShares Short QQQ), with dark pool activity. This indicates an opinion that markets are going down, and while everyone is stacked on puts, if key levels are lost, it could lead to a 'waterfally' decline.

### 14. Bitcoin Cumulative Net Flows Drawdown from ATH (Dec 2023 - Jun 2026)

**Bias:** BULLISH (INFLOWS AND DEMAND)
**Pattern:** inflows after drawdown
**Key Levels:** $72k breakout, $60k demand zone

Bitcoin has seen better information recently, breaking above $72k and attracting $1.6 billion in net inflows since the low on February 23rd. This coincides with a very good defensive demand zone, suggesting that while previous breakouts were false, this one could be a correct break. Liquidation shorts were also activated, contributing to the boost.

### 15. Cap vs Equal-Weight: How different is the story? (Year-to-Date)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (SECTOR-SPECIFIC)
**Pattern:** sector rotation
**Key Levels:** Software (-25%), Energy (+10%)

This chart highlights sector rotation, with strong performance in energy, materials, consumer staples, and healthcare, while software has been underperforming. This reinforces the idea of a stock and sector selection market, with price action in software starting to look better, potentially indicating early days for that sector.

### 16. US500 (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 6995.74 resistance, 6792.62 support, 6900 most traded zone (equilibrium)

The US500 is currently in a range-bound market, with the advance-decline line subdued. A higher high on the previous rejection wick is a strong sign that markets are trying to squeeze towards breaking 7000. The 6900 level is the most traded zone (equilibrium), and the market is stuck in this range. Options high/low levels are good indicators of these boundaries.

### 17. US500 (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 6892.5 options high, 6740.7 options low, 6770-6800 major put zone

The US500 remains in a range, with options high level at 6892.5 and options low level at 6740.7. The 6770-6800 range is identified as a major put zone. The market is currently in a stock picker's market, not showing a clear breakout.

### 18. GEX Profile (Options Expiration) (Various expirations)

**Bias:** BEARISH (INVESTOR SENTIMENT)
**Pattern:** heavy put hedging
**Key Levels:** 6800, 6900, 7000 strike prices

The GEX profile charts for various options expirations show significant put hedging, particularly around the 6800-6900 strike prices. This reinforces the idea that investors have hedged more than in the last 15 years, indicating high fear and complacency despite the market being near all-time highs. The key is to watch for actual market moves, not just opinions.

### 19. Percent of Stocks Above 50-Day Average (2022-2026)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (WEAKENING BREADTH)
**Pattern:** loss of momentum
**Key Levels:** 75.69 resistance

The percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average has lost momentum, indicating weakening market breadth. While the market may have broadened, it has done so in a way that's different from normal, with tech and software sectors showing weakness. This suggests a stock selection and sector-based market.

### 20. QQQ (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (POTENTIAL FOR PRESSURE ON HIGHS)
**Pattern:** lower low with high volume, potential triple bottom
**Key Levels:** 618 resistance, 580 support

The QQQ has formed a lower low with high volume, but an interesting level to watch is around 618. If it breaks above this, it could be seen as a triple bottom and put pressure on previous highs. This is another chart to back up the S&P's potential for upward movement.

### 21. US2000 (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 2650 resistance, 2438.6 first major target

The Russell 2000 (US2000) is also in a range-bound market, similar to the S&P 500, basically back to the middle of its recent range. This indicates a lack of clear directional bias for small-cap stocks.

### 22. KOSPI (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH (EXTREME VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** extreme volatility, bear market in days
**Key Levels:** 6347.41 peak, 5057.69 support
**Historical Comparison:** similar to China market in 2015-16

The KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) has experienced 'wild' and 'insane' volatility, entering a bear market (20% drop) in just over two days. This extreme bounce off a technical bear level and a massive doji suggests a point of equilibrium, but also warns of more fireworks and stories to come as markets enter this volatility level. Caution is advised.

### 23. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (HOLDING SUPPORT)
**Pattern:** holding support
**Key Levels:** 195.17 call wall, 170.05 most important level

NVIDIA is holding its most important level at 170.05. Despite decent earnings, it wasn't able to rally significantly. The key is that it has held this support level.

### 24. NVDA/SMH (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (NVDA RELATIVE STRENGTH)
**Pattern:** NVDA outperforming semis
**Key Levels:** 0.4746 resistance

The NVDA/SMH ratio shows that NVIDIA is actually doing a little bit better than the broader semiconductor sector. Everything is holding on by a thread, but NVIDIA's relative strength is notable.

### 25. IGV (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (WATCHING FOR FOLLOW-THROUGH)
**Pattern:** high volume spike lower, activation
**Key Levels:** 78.67 support, 86.04 post-market

The software sector (IGV) saw a high volume spike lower, with significant transactions coming in. This indicates 'activation' at these levels. The most notable thing is that it managed to get through the 20-day moving average, but hasn't quite taken a higher high yet. Someone is 'sniffing' around this sector, making lots of transactions.

### 26. Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (WATCHING FOR FOLLOW-THROUGH)
**Pattern:** gap fill, some strength
**Key Levels:** 408.24 resistance, 385.46 support

Microsoft also experienced a gap fill on the left-hand side of the chart, with some strength and a little bit of volume coming through. It's interesting to see the software side showing these technicals.

### 27. Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (HOLDING AFTER EARNINGS)
**Pattern:** holding after earnings
**Key Levels:** 331.77 post-market

Broadcom (AVGO) looked okay on earnings, which were green. The semiconductor market has held after looking shaky, and the key is to watch semis in general, particularly the weekly 20 moving average at 376.50.

### 28. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (HOLDING BACKBONE OF RUN)
**Pattern:** holding after pullback
**Key Levels:** 317.99 support, 376.44 weekly 20 MA

The semiconductor ETF (SMH) is holding its weekly 20 moving average at 376.44. This means the backbone of this run, the data center AI bubble, is still intact in the charts.

### 29. DXY (U.S. Dollar Index Futures) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (SHOWING SIGNS OF STRENGTH)
**Pattern:** higher high, pullback, broken trendline
**Key Levels:** 100.250 resistance, 98.775 support

The US Dollar Index (DXY) saw a higher high, pulled back, and broke its trendline. It's starting to show signs of strength, which is counter-intuitive to what most people think. Geopolitical conflicts can lead to a flight to safety, and the dollar is seen as a safe haven. The 100.30 level is being watched, and for some dollar bulls, this week was more bullish than in a while.

### 30. Gold (XAUUSD) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (BUYERS AT SUPPORT)
**Pattern:** pullback to daily 20 MA
**Key Levels:** 5054.10 daily 20 MA

Gold saw some pressure but came down to the daily 20 moving average, where buyers usually appear. They have come in a little bit, but it's not exceptional.

### 31. Silver (XAGUSD) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (BUYERS AT SUPPORT)
**Pattern:** buyers at daily 20 MA
**Key Levels:** 82.2654 daily 20 MA

Silver buyers, along with platinum and palladium buyers, came in at the daily 20 moving average. While not exceptional, it shows some attraction to these levels.

### 32. Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI1!) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (BARELY HOLDING SUPPORT)
**Pattern:** head and shoulders completed, holding support
**Key Levels:** 27347 resistance, 24985 major support

The Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong market) completed a head and shoulders pattern, losing a key level last week and coming down to major support at 24985. It's barely holding on by a thread, but it is holding.

### 33. UKOIL (CFDs on Brent Crude Oil) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (WATCHING FOR PIT OR BREAKOUT)
**Pattern:** smashed into resistance, volatility at top
**Key Levels:** 82.40 resistance, 87.43 resistance

UK Oil has smashed into resistance at 82.40, with volatility at the top. Technical traders are likely taking targets off. Usually, a 'pit' (sideways action) would be expected here before a potential breakout to 90+.

### 34. ETH/USDT (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** higher high failed to break up
**Key Levels:** 2163.33 resistance, 1896.35 support

Ethereum took a higher high but failed to break up, closing just below its previous high. This indicates a lack of sustained upward momentum.

### 35. SOL/USD (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** closing below previous high
**Key Levels:** 94.91 resistance, 80.00 support

Solana also did the same thing as Ethereum, closing just below its previous high, indicating a lack of sustained upward momentum.

### 36. BTC/USDT (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH (LIQUIDATION SHORTS DRIVING BOOST)
**Pattern:** big drop into rally, liquidation shorts
**Key Levels:** 72727.76 resistance, 63578.76 support

Bitcoin closed above 72,000 on the daily chart, with inflows coming through. While not a 'favorite' technical setup, the demand looks good. Big drops into rallies are capable of forcing liquidity, and significant liquidation shorts over the last 24 hours likely contributed to a big boost in price.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is likely in a late-cycle bull market, characterized by narrowing breadth, sector rotation, and increased volatility. The Federal Reserve's rate cuts since September have influenced fund flows, shifting away from the Magnificent Seven towards equal-weighted markets. Rising unemployment and potential inflationary pressures create a challenging environment for central banks, which could lead to extreme market volatility. The prevalence of hedging and false breakouts suggests a market ripe for unexpected moves.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch for potential bubbles popping in several different markets.
- Be cautious with 'buy the dip' strategies in volatile markets like the South Korean ETF (EWY).
- Pay attention to bonds and risk parameters, as factory job losses and central bank pressures could lead to extreme volatility.
- Monitor key levels in the S&P 500 (6900 most traded zone) for potential breakouts or continued range-bound action.
- Observe the software sector (IGV) for sustained strength after recent improvements.
- Keep an eye on Bitcoin for continued inflows and potential for a sustained upward move, especially after recent liquidation shorts.
- Be aware that the market is currently a 'stock picker's market' with sector-specific movements rather than broad-market rallies.
- Watch for a 'pit' (sideways action) in oil markets after hitting resistance, before a potential move to 90+.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SPX, IGV, SMH/SPY, BTC/USDT, Estimated S&P 500 Customer Put Delta Positioning, RSP Fund Flows, Periodic (ETF) (M), MAGS Fund Flows, Periodic (ETF) (M), U.S. Manufacturing Jobs, S&P 500 when Hindenburg Omen while S&P is below 100 day moving average, EWY - iShares MSCI South Korea ETF, Microsoft (MSFT), RSI (14 week), KWEB (China tech ETF), RSI (14 day), PSQ - ProShares Short QQQ, Bitcoin Cumulative Net Flows Drawdown from ATH, US500, GEX Profile (Options Expiration), Percent of Stocks Above 50-Day Average, QQQ, US2000, KOSPI, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), NVDA/SMH, Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), DXY (U.S. Dollar Index Futures), Gold (XAUUSD), Silver (XAGUSD), Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI1!), UKOIL (CFDs on Brent Crude Oil), ETH/USDT, SOL/USD

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-03-04 23:01:16*