# The Biggest Trade Of 2026?
**Date:** 2026-03-06  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-hWLaq1UCq4)

## Main Thesis
The market is at a critical juncture, with significant put walls and dark pool activity suggesting a potential short squeeze in software, while broader market breadth is weakening, and money is flowing into safe havens and the US dollar amidst geopolitical tensions.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPX (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 6800 support, 6792.05 support, 6999.51 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The video highlights 6800 on the S&P 500 as the most important number of 2026 due to billions of dollars in a massive put wall. The market fell below 6800 but found a bounce by the end of the session, currently sitting just above 6830. The 20/50 moving averages are almost crossing to the downside, which is traditionally rare. The last time this happened was back in Feb/March, leading to a loss of bull support. A close under 6770 would expose a negative gamma event and possibly a waterfall action, with no major support until 6500-6600.

### 2. IGV (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 78.60 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Huge volume activity has been seen in software businesses (IGV), with Wall Street secretly building dark pool activity (DPA). This has led to a short squeeze. The chart shows significant dark pool activity (red shaded area with circles) around the 80-85 range, indicating accumulation. The speaker notes that IGV is outperforming SOXX (semiconductors) by 17.34 percentage points over the last six trading days, its largest six-day outperformance on record. This suggests the market is searching for deep value and pulling out of highly expensive sectors. IGV has bounced from an oversold RSI (under 25 to above 50), which historically shows mixed results in the short term but tends to be bullish over 6-12 months.

### 3. SMH/SPY (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 0.5803 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

People are getting worried about the backbone of the AI bubble, semiconductors. The chart shows SMH (semiconductors) relative to SPY (S&P 500), indicating a potential weakening in the semiconductor sector. The speaker notes that money is fleeing to safe havens, and while the US market is holding up better than the world, there's concern about the AI bubble's backbone.

### 4. COPPER (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 5.6530 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Money is fleeing to safe havens, including commodities like copper. The chart shows copper prices with a support level at 5.6530. The speaker notes that while there's a general flight to safety, copper's pattern suggests potential trouble if certain levels are lost, hinting at a head and shoulders pattern.

### 5. US Oil Exporter Status (yearly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** null
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Shale Revolution turned the US into a net oil exporter, producing over 20% of the world's oil, the largest share by any country in more than 55 years. This has made the US less reliant on other countries for oil production, contributing to the US market holding up better than the world.

### 6. SPY vs ACWX (4-day performance)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** outperformance
**Key Levels:** +6% threshold
**Historical Comparison:** since 2008

The S&P 500 (SPY) is outperforming the world's market (ACWX) by the widest margin since 2008 over the last four days. This indicates that when there's real 'freak out' in the markets, the US is still seen as the best place for money, or at least where money is traditionally set.

### 7. S&P 500 Customer Put Delta Positioning (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** spike in put buying
**Key Levels:** 6800
**Historical Comparison:** over a decade

Estimated S&P 500 customer put delta positioning is up, with 6800 being an important level. Investors are piling into buying protection, and this is the biggest number in over a decade. This suggests significant hedging against a potential market downturn.

### 8. SH (ProShares Short S&P500) (intraday (Feb 27 - Mar 6))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** dark pool activity
**Key Levels:** 36.40, 36.10
**Historical Comparison:** null

Large dark pool activity has been seen on short funds (SH). The market is stuck between 6770 and 7000 on the stock market, with 6900 being the fair value area. Every time it approaches 6900, it seems to sell off. Dark pool activity trades are coming in on the Nasdaq, S&P, and Russell, indicating significant institutional interest in shorting.

### 9. PSQ (ProShares Short QQQ) (intraday (Feb 10 - Mar 7))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** dark pool activity
**Key Levels:** 30.75, 31.00
**Historical Comparison:** null

Similar to SH, PSQ shows dark pool activity, with significant trades around the 30.75-31.00 range. This reinforces the idea of institutional shorting interest in the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

### 10. S&P 500 Options Levels (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower highs
**Key Levels:** 6901.2 (High), 6758.6 (Low)
**Historical Comparison:** null

Updated options high and low levels are shown. Around the 6760-6770 zone, there are options level holds. High volume is coming in around turning points in the market. However, the market is making lower highs, which is a bearish technical sign. The speaker notes that from a technical analysis standpoint, lower highs in the same range are undesirable, and a market should make higher highs to sustain an upward trend.

### 11. SPX Gamma Exposure (GEX) (various expirations)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** put wall
**Key Levels:** 6800
**Historical Comparison:** null

The gamma and movements show 6800 as the most important level ahead of US jobs numbers. If 6800 is lost, it could lead to pretty 'hedgy' conditions into the weekend. There are a ton of puts in the market, and investors have been hedging at the fastest rate in a very long time.

### 12. QQQ Gamma Exposure (GEX) (various expirations)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** negative gamma
**Key Levels:** 600
**Historical Comparison:** null

Similar to the S&P 500, the QQQ (Nasdaq 100) shows 600 as a big level for negative gamma, indicating significant put protection at that level.

### 13. NVDA Gamma Exposure (GEX) (various expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** thin gamma
**Key Levels:** 170
**Historical Comparison:** null

Nvidia's gamma exposure is thin but holding itself around the 170 level, which is the key level that matters. This suggests less extreme positioning compared to the broader indices.

### 14. IBIT Gamma Exposure (GEX) (various expirations)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive gamma
**Key Levels:** 40 (above), 72k (Bitcoin equivalent)
**Historical Comparison:** null

For Bitcoin (IBIT), 40 is above, which is good, meaning it's around the 72k marker. If there's strength into the weekend, it could push positive gamma, suggesting a potential upside break for Bitcoin and some cryptos. This is the first time this can be said in a very long time.

### 15. Percent of Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Average (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** declining breadth
**Key Levels:** 75.69 resistance, 43.29 current
**Historical Comparison:** null

The percentage of stocks above the 50-day moving average is declining, showing weakening breadth in the market. The market itself is not what it once was, even though it's still at the 6800 level (referencing SPX). This indicates that fewer stocks are participating in any rallies, which is a bearish divergence.

### 16. KOSPI1! (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** technical bear market
**Key Levels:** 5546.89 current
**Historical Comparison:** null

The South Korean market (KOSPI) dropped 20%, entering a technical bear market within 2.5 days, and has since found a bit of a rally. The speaker notes that when volume enters the chart, it's usually a concern, and this market is 'terrifying' at this stage.

### 17. NVDA (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 170.05 (most important level), 195.17 (call wall)
**Historical Comparison:** null

Nvidia is still holding 170, which is a positive sign. It's currently hovering in the zone, suggesting a period of consolidation or indecision.

### 18. NVDA/SMH (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 0.4746 (resistance)
**Historical Comparison:** null

Nvidia is now performing better than the semiconductors (SMH). A ratio of 0.475 would show that Nvidia might be coming back. This suggests a relative strength in Nvidia compared to the broader semiconductor sector.

### 19. MSFT (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 385.46 support, 411.50 resistance, 321.71 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Microsoft picked up again over the last 24 hours. The software sector itself managed to eke out a slightly higher high on big volume, which is definitely encouraging. The stats for it weren't great, but often the market will pull back to the most traded area and then find a buy off of it, indicating a potential major support.

### 20. IGV (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** super critical levels
**Key Levels:** 78.67 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The software sector (IGV) shows super critical levels around 78.67 on the weekly chart, which could act as major support. This reinforces the idea that despite short-term volatility, there's underlying strength in the software sector.

### 21. SMH (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** weakening upward trend
**Key Levels:** 317.99 support, 261.05 support, 375.84 (loss of upward trend)
**Historical Comparison:** null

Semiconductors (SMH) show a little bit of weakness appearing on smaller timeframes. The daily 50-day moving average is barely holding. If SMH loses 376, it would indicate a loss of upward trend momentum. Currently, the most important backbone section of the S&P and the US stock market is holding, but this could change.

### 22. DXY (US Dollar Index Futures) (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 99.310 support, 100.250 resistance, 101.595 resistance, 103.300 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US dollar still looks pretty active, with geopolitical tensions forcing more money back into the dollar. It's showing a slight positive sign, getting through 99.30, with 100.30 being the main level. This indicates a flight to safety into the US dollar.

### 23. GOLD (XAUUSD) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 5070.34 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Gold's daily 20-day moving average is still holding up barely. The speaker prefers it to go down and then find a buy, but currently, it's fairly neutral to bullish.

### 24. SILVER (XAGUSD) (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 82.3843 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Silver shows a very similar pattern to gold, suggesting a neutral to bullish bias.

### 25. COPPER (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 5.6530 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Copper is showing a head and shoulders pattern. If it loses certain levels (around 5.6530), it could be in trouble. While the speaker has been bullish on minerals and metals from a technical side over the last 12-14 months, this pattern is a concern.

### 26. UKOIL (Brent Crude Oil) (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** squeeze
**Key Levels:** 82.40 support, 84.30 resistance, 90.09 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

UK oil is pushing higher, almost going towards 90 a barrel. It hit the first critical level, sat there for a couple of days, and is still pushing higher. The speaker believes shorting this would be 'crazy' and that 90 a barrel is the second major technical level.

### 27. SOLUSD (Solana) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 91.92 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

In the crypto world, Solana hasn't been able to break 91.92 and hold the close, indicating it's 'touch and go' for cryptos.

### 28. ETHUSDT (Ethereum) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 2150 resistance, 2610.50 (most traded zone)
**Historical Comparison:** null

Ethereum still hasn't been able to break 2150 and hold the close, similar to Solana, suggesting uncertainty in the crypto market.

### 29. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout
**Key Levels:** 72000 resistance, 67697.61 support, 63578.76 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Bitcoin itself did manage to break 72000, which is encouraging. The speaker notes that Bitcoin often leads, similar to the S&P, and then other markets follow. This suggests early signs of crypto finding a bit of support ahead of non-farm payrolls.

### 30. HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) (4h)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** big rejection
**Key Levels:** 25000 support, 25037 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Chinese markets (Hang Seng) are pressuring 25000 with a big rejection in the last 24 hours, which was 'nasty' and pushed it back down to the lows. It's currently at key support, similar to US markets and semiconductors. This indicates widespread pressure on key support levels across global markets.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a period of uncertainty and potential rotation. Money is flowing out of expensive sectors (like some staples) and into undervalued tech/software, while also seeking safe havens like the US dollar due to geopolitical tensions. The US market is showing relative strength compared to global markets, but overall market breadth is weakening. There's a significant 'put wall' on the S&P 500, indicating hedging against a downturn, and many key indices are at critical support/resistance levels.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- 6800 on the S&P 500 is the most important number of 2026.
- A close under 6770 on the S&P 500 could expose a negative gamma event and a waterfall action.
- Software (IGV) is outperforming semiconductors (SOXX), suggesting a market search for deep value.
- Money is flowing into safe havens, with the US dollar showing strength.
- Bitcoin has broken 72000, which is an encouraging sign for crypto.
- Many global indices (Chinese, US, semiconductors) are at key support/resistance levels, indicating a critical juncture.
- The market is making lower highs, which is a bearish technical sign.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SPX, IGV, SOXX, SMH, SPY, COPPER, SH, PSQ, NVDA, IBIT, DXY, GOLD, SILVER, UKOIL, USOIL, SOLUSD, ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT, HSI1!, MSFT, KOSPI1!

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-03-05 23:00:48*