# We Don’t Usually See This… **Date:** 2026-03-08 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rInZGNQ9DR8) ## Main Thesis The market is showing significant weakness across various sectors, with key support levels breaking down, indicating a potential shift towards a stagflationary period similar to the 1970s, driven by poor jobs data, illiquidity in private funds, and rising commodity prices. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** breakdown below key support **Key Levels:** 6999.51 resistance, 6792.05 support, 6740.01 current price, 6603.40 next support **Historical Comparison:** 1960-70s style stagflation period The SPX has broken through key support levels, with the current price at 6740.01, below 6792.05. The next support is identified at 6603.40. This breakdown, coupled with weak US jobs numbers, suggests a potential stagflationary period similar to the 1960s-70s. The weekly close is underneath 6800 and the weekly 20 moving average, which is a rare and significant bearish signal. The loss of the weekly 20 moving average often leads to a drop to the 50 moving average, which is around 6500. ### 2. SMH/SPY (Semiconductor ETF / S&P 500 ETF ratio) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** breakdown of upward trendline **Key Levels:** 0.5660 current price The SMH/SPY ratio, representing the semiconductor sector's performance relative to the broader market, has broken down from its upward trendline. This is a significant bearish signal as semiconductors have been a leading sector. ### 3. UKOIL (Brent Crude Oil) (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** breakout, strong upward momentum **Key Levels:** 93.33 current price, 100.22 resistance UKOIL has seen a significant breakout, heading towards $100 a barrel. The current price is 93.33, with resistance at 100.22. This strong upward movement in oil prices contributes to the stagflationary concerns. ### 4. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** sharp decline, potential oversold bounce **Key Levels:** 87.97 current price, 96.11 resistance, 79.33 support The IGV has experienced a sharp decline, with the current price at 87.97. It has broken below key levels and is approaching support at 79.33. This indicates weakness in the software sector, which has been a strong performer. ### 5. VIX (Volatility S&P 500 Index) (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** spike up, increased volatility **Key Levels:** 29.48 current price, 28.80 support The VIX has spiked up to 29.48, indicating increased market volatility. This is a rare occurrence and suggests that markets are entering a period of heightened uncertainty and potential downside. ### 6. US Nonfarm Payrolls (in 1000's) and Unemployment Rate (monthly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** declining trend in jobs created, rising unemployment **Key Levels:** 4.4% unemployment rate, 92,000 jobs lost (Feb-26) **Historical Comparison:** 11 previous times this weakness occurred, the US economy was already in recession The US Nonfarm Payrolls report shows a significant loss of 92,000 jobs in February 2026, with the unemployment rate potentially sitting at 4.4%. Revisions to previous months' data also tend to be worse. Historically, 11 out of 11 previous times this level of weakness in the jobs market has been seen since 1950, the US economy was already in recession. This is a major concern for the macro outlook. ### 7. USO (oil ETF) and Call Volume (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** massive spike in call volume, strong upward price movement **Key Levels:** ~90 current price, 500,000+ call volume The USO oil ETF has seen call volumes go 'through the roof' as of Friday, indicating a massive jump in bullish bets on oil. This creates a huge squeeze and massive movements in the market, with oil prices already spiking significantly. ### 8. Global Jet Fuel Prices (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** soaring prices, tripling in Europe & Asia **Key Levels:** ~300+ current price Global jet fuel prices are soaring, with jet fuel in Europe and Asia having tripled. This indicates significant refined product stress due to global run cuts, contributing to inflationary pressures. ### 9. Gold, Copper, Energy, Agricultural Commodities Indices (multi-year (2000-2026)) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** sequential upward movement across commodities **Key Levels:** Gold & Silver Index: 415.61, Global Copper Miners Index: 336.5232, Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF: 56.48, Agricultural & Livestock Index: 394.4524 This chart illustrates a sequential upward movement across various commodity sectors: Gold has risen for years, Copper has been up for the last 12 months, and now Energy is seeing significant gains. Agricultural commodities are also starting to rise, suggesting a broad-based commodity rally. ### 10. Gold Trust ETF Fund Flows (daily (2017-2026)) **Bias:** BEARISH (SHORT-TERM), BULLISH (LONG-TERM) **Pattern:** largest outflow since November 2016 **Key Levels:** -2.91B outflow **Historical Comparison:** largest outflow since November 2016 Gold Trust ETF fund flows show the largest outflow since November 2016. While this might seem negative, Atkinson suggests it's an 'interesting story' and that central banks are still the number one purchasers of gold, implying long-term bullishness despite short-term outflows. ### 11. SPX average stock 3 month realized volatility - SPX index 3 month realized volatility (5 dma) (multi-year (1994-2026)) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** massive spike in single stock volatility relative to SPX **Key Levels:** ~20% current level This chart shows a massive spike in single stock volatility compared to the S&P 500 index. This indicates that while the overall market might appear stable, individual stocks are experiencing significant price swings, suggesting a 'single stock picker, sector selection market' with underlying instability. ### 12. PSQ (ProShares Short QQQ) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH (FOR PSQ, IMPLYING BEARISH FOR QQQ) **Pattern:** shorts coming in from dark pools, potential profit from downside **Key Levels:** 30.87 current price, 30.75 support, 31.25 resistance As the S&P 500 hit around 6900, a bunch of shorts came into PSQ (ProShares Short QQQ) from dark pools, suggesting smart money is betting on a downside for the NASDAQ. These positions have not been closed yet, indicating further potential downside for the tech-heavy index. ### 13. RSP (Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** transactions near highs, approaching key support **Key Levels:** 197.55 current price, 197.00 support The RSP (equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF) shows heaps of transactions near its highs, and it has now come down to almost a key support level at 197.00. This suggests that the broader market, beyond just mega-cap tech, is also facing selling pressure. ### 14. VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** clusters of transactions near highs, tight range **Key Levels:** 626.81 current price, 620-640 range VOO (Vanguard S&P 500 ETF) shows clusters of transactions near its highs, indicating significant activity in a very tight range between 620 and 640. This suggests a potential for a sharp move once this tight range breaks. ### 15. IGV oversold bounce: RSI from < 25 to > 50 (multi-year (2003-2026)) **Bias:** NEUTRAL (OBSERVING BOUNCE) **Pattern:** oversold bounce in IGV **Key Levels:** RSI 14 day below 25 and above 50 **Historical Comparison:** historical performance after RSI bounce IGV (software companies) has been oversold, with its RSI dropping below 25 and then bouncing above 50. Wall Street has 'sneakily moved into it' in the last couple of days, and it has held up pretty well compared to everything else. Historical data shows mixed results after such bounces, with short-term negative returns but longer-term positive returns. ### 16. QQQ (NASDAQ ETF) and Fund Flows (2 month total) (daily (2020-2026)) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** massive negative fund flows, price decline **Key Levels:** ~600 current price, significant negative fund flows QQQ (NASDAQ ETF) has seen fund flows 'absolutely obliterated' over the last two months. While bad fund flows sometimes occur near peaks, they are usually near the lows. This suggests that tech has been beaten, and software has been beaten, with a sell-off in almost everything else except energy and tech (which is acting as a slight safe haven). ### 17. US500 (S&P 500 Index Futures) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** closure underneath previous points, lower highs **Key Levels:** 6792.62 support, 6740.01 current price, 6650.96 next support, 6995.74 resistance The US500 futures have closed underneath previous key points, specifically below 6792.62 and the weekly 20 moving average. This is a breakdown from a technical perspective. The market has been forming a series of lower highs, which is a bearish sign. The next major demand zone is around 6600-6550. ### 18. QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** pressure on 600, closing below weekly 20 moving average **Key Levels:** 599.75 current price, 620 resistance, 580 support QQQ has put pressure on the 600 level and has closed below the weekly 20 moving average again. This exposes the 50 moving average, which is a significant downside risk. There is not much flow going towards the upside for QQQ. ### 19. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) Options GEX Profile (various expirations) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** waterfall effect, negative GEX **Key Levels:** 360-370 strike zone The GEX profile for SMH (semiconductor ETF) options shows a 'waterfall effect' once key levels are lost, leading to further downside. A lot of puts are expiring around the 360-370 strike zone, which could exert downward pressure. Monstrous amounts of puts have come through, with overall negativity on semiconductors rising heavily due to massive transactions near the end of the week. ### 20. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL/SLIGHTLY BULLISH **Pattern:** holding well above key support **Key Levels:** 177.82 current price, 170.05 most important level, 195.17 call wall NVIDIA has held pretty well at 177.82, not falling underneath 170.05. There is no real new bearish news on this chart yet, suggesting it's holding up better than some other tech stocks. ### 21. SMH/SPY (VanEck Semiconductor ETF / S&P 500 ETF ratio) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** break of upward trendline, first sign of weakness **Key Levels:** 0.5660 current price, 0.5511 support The SMH/SPY ratio has broken through key zones, specifically the upward trendline. This is considered the 'first reason weakness' for the semiconductor sector relative to the S&P 500. The 0.5511 level is a big ratio to watch. ### 22. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** hitting 20 moving average, approaching put support **Key Levels:** 380.56 resistance, 375.84 current price, 360.29 put support SMH (semiconductor ETF) is hitting its 20 moving average at 375.84 and is approaching the major put support at 360.29. This is an important level to watch, as a break below could lead to further downside. ### 23. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** spike into zones, causing sell-off **Key Levels:** 87.97 current price, 78.67 support IGV (software ETF) has seen the market spike into certain zones, causing huge amounts of sell-off. This is because Wall Street is 'sneaky' and if it's in the press, it's in the price. When there is volatility, markets often go to the beaten-down stocks, which is why tech and software are holding up 'okay' for now. ### 24. XLE (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM), NEUTRAL (LONG-TERM) **Pattern:** breaking out, but short-term driven **Key Levels:** 56.57 current price, 47.06 support XLE (energy sector ETF) has broken out, but this is primarily driven by short-term oil price spikes rather than long-term fundamentals. Energy stocks look at the long-term oil price, while this is short-term spiking. This suggests a blend of different futures contracts and caution is advised. ### 25. HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** holding on by a thread to major support **Key Levels:** 25,328 current price, 24,985 major support, 27,347 resistance Chinese markets (Hang Seng Index Futures) are holding on by a thread to the 25,000 level, with major support at 24,985. A lot of markets are hitting key supports or breaking underneath, indicating widespread weakness. ### 26. US2000 (Russell 2000 Index) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** broken through first major support, dropped weekly 20 moving average **Key Levels:** 2521.8 current price, 2472.5 first major target, 2290.7 market turns bullish?, 2220.0 good buy zone The Russell 2000 has broken through its first major support around 2472.5 and has dropped below the weekly 20 moving average. This suggests the possibility of it heading down to the 50 moving average. Nothing really positive is coming out of the US stock markets, with everything looking like it hasn't hit key support yet. ### 27. ETHUSDT (Ethereum TetherUS) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** range-bound, massive liquidations **Key Levels:** 1972.46 current price, 1896.35 support, 2147.64 retail steal Ethereum is currently range-bound, with massive liquidations occurring. It hasn't managed to break out through Solana and Ethereum. While not necessarily a sell, it's important to be aware of the range-bound nature and potential for further liquidations. ### 28. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin TetherUS) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** break up, pulled back to most traded area **Key Levels:** 67,379.60 current price, 63,578.76 support, 72,000 resistance Bitcoin did break up through 72,000, which is somewhat encouraging. However, it has since pulled back to the most traded area around 67,000. If it drops underneath again, it could present a huge 'Wyckoff style' trade opportunity, but for now, it's at a key level where a bid is hoped to come in. ### 29. US02Y (US Government Bonds 2 Yr Yield) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH (FOR BONDS, IMPLYING HAWKISH FED) **Pattern:** spiked up after jobs reports, almost hit new high **Key Levels:** -8.26% current yield, -9.58% resistance The US 2-year government bond yield spiked up after the jobs reports, almost hitting a new high. This is not what you would usually expect during bad unemployment, as the Fed would typically cut rates. However, with rising oil prices, the Fed faces a problem with inflation, making it a very risky trade. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The video suggests a potential shift towards a stagflationary regime, characterized by weak economic data (jobs), rising inflation (oil, commodities), and central bank dilemmas. The breakdown of key market sectors and increased volatility across equities and bonds are seen as indicators of this shift. The comparison to the 1970s stagflation is explicitly made. ## Key Calls & Predictions - The market is heading for another 1960-70s style stagflation period. - BlackRock's private credit fund limiting redemptions is a significant sign of illiquidity in private funds, potentially feeding into broader debt markets. - The US jobs market is showing significant weakness, with historical parallels suggesting the economy may already be in recession. - Oil prices are expected to continue spiking, potentially reaching $100-$110 a barrel, exacerbating inflation concerns. - Key support levels in the S&P 500 (around 6600-6550) and NASDAQ (around 580) are crucial to watch for further downside. - Semiconductor and software sectors are showing weakness, with significant put activity and breakdowns in relative performance. - Increased market volatility (VIX spiking) and weakness in high-yield bonds indicate rising risk in debt markets. - Chinese markets are holding on by a thread, and the Russell 2000 has broken key support, suggesting broader global market fragility. ## All Instruments Mentioned SPX, SMH/SPY, UKOIL, IGV, VIX, US Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, USO, Gold, Copper, Energy, Agricultural Commodities, Gold Trust ETF, PSQ, RSP, VOO, QQQ, US500, NVDA, XLE, HSI1!, US2000, ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT, US02Y --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-03-07 23:01:03*