# Did We Just See Wall Street Flash Red?
**Date:** 2026-03-12  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xSsEYieqxk)

## Main Thesis
The stock market has broken down after hitting an important level, with concerns rising about Wall Street, big movements, and flows, especially regarding the 20-moving average and potential negative gamma events.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (2h)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downward trend line, breakdown of key support
**Key Levels:** 6851.4 (Daily Options High), 6698.3 (Daily Options Low), 6760 (key support), 6654.4 (exposed level), 6700 (exposed level)

The stock market (US500) has just broken down after hitting a very important level. A downward trend line has appeared over the last couple of sessions, coinciding with the most traded zone throughout the previous range. This is exactly where a bear would step in. A breakdown of 6760, a key support level, may trigger some sells. For bulls, a critical break into the future would be to break the downward trend line and take out a higher high at the same point. If selling continues, exposed levels include 6654.4 and 6700.

### 2. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** mean reversion, dynamic resistance/support
**Key Levels:** 20-weekly moving average (mean reversion), 5669.94 (Gap Fill), 5395.18 (Gap Fill), 5198.27 (Gap Fill)

The 20-weekly moving average is discussed as a crucial mean reversion level for Wall Street. When broken, it can become a very good dynamic resistance. The chart shows previous instances where the price bounced off or broke through this moving average, acting as support or resistance. The current price is below the 20-weekly moving average, suggesting a bearish outlook. Potential gap fills are identified at 5669.94, 5395.18, and 5198.27.

### 3. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** spike up
**Key Levels:** 119.188 (Multi Year High), 102.050, 105.434

Oil is staying to spike up, causing some concerns. The price is currently around 91.898, having spiked significantly from lower levels. Key resistance levels are marked at 102.050 and a multi-year high at 119.188.

### 4. JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co.) (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** almost breaking down
**Key Levels:** 287.52 (support)

Financials, specifically JP Morgan, are almost breaking down. The price is currently at 287.52, which is a key support level. If this level breaks, it could indicate further downside.

### 5. Options Flow (SPX) (N/A)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** put wall, negative gamma event
**Key Levels:** 6775 (put wall), 6700 (big round number, put support)

The options flow charts for SPX show a put wall (PW) at 6775, where the market closed. This may act as holding support. If this level is dropped, it could create a negative gamma event. The next key level of put support is at 6700, a big round number, which bears seem to be targeting.

### 6. Options Flow (SMH) (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding up
**Key Levels:** 185 (holding level)

The options flow for SMH (semiconductors) shows that it has been doing okay, holding around the 185 level. Semiconductors are considered the backbone of the markets, and their stability is an important factor.

### 7. Options Flow (TSLA) (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** break up and come back down
**Key Levels:** 420, 410 (critical level)

For Tesla, key levels are 420 and a critical level at 410. The price broke up and then came back down over the last 24 hours. The chart is starting to look a little bit better, but it's still showing volatility.

### 8. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** oversold, dark pool activity, large trades
**Key Levels:** 31.69% (key support zone)

Software (IGV) has been oversold. Dark pool activity and large trades are being tracked. The key support zone at 31.69% has been holding up. When software is oversold and markets are unusually volatile, these stocks often hold better because the risk-off event has already occurred, and money flows into them.

### 9. ETHUSDT (Ethereum / TetherUS) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding massive demand range
**Key Levels:** 2163.33 (Retail Steal), 1896.35

Ethereum has held a massive demand range from previous points. The 'Retail Steal' level is marked at 2163.33, and another key level is 1896.35. The price is currently around 2048.89.

### 10. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding massive demand range, higher high
**Key Levels:** 65170.99 (massive demand range)
**Historical Comparison:** similar movements to IGV

Bitcoin has also held a massive demand range from previous points, similar to Ethereum. It created a higher high at a very similar point to IGV, suggesting a correlation between software and crypto. The massive demand range is around 65170.99.

### 11. XLF (State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** 12% drop, new lows, false breaks
**Key Levels:** 50.19 (key support), 49.64

Weakness has been observed in the banks (XLF) since January, with a 12% drop, which is considerable for a sector. New lows are being formed, and the 50.19 level is critical. These could be false breaks, leading to a break back up. The current price is around 50.19.

### 12. JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co.) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** important bank
**Key Levels:** 288.23, 287.52 (key level)

JP Morgan, arguably the most important bank in the world, is at a critical point. The price is around 287.52, which is a key level. What happens here will be an important factor for financials.

### 13. XLF/SPY (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** underperforming, new multi-year low
**Key Levels:** 0.0750 (multi-year low)

The XLF/SPY ratio shows that financials are clearly underperforming the stock market. They have broken to a new multi-year low at 0.0750, suggesting significant weakness in the financial sector relative to the broader market.

### 14. LQD (iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dropped
**Key Levels:** 109.16

The corporate bonds market (LQD) dropped, with the price currently at 109.16. This suggests a flight from corporate bonds.

### 15. HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dropping
**Key Levels:** 76.69

High yield junk bonds (HYG) also saw some dropping, with the price around 79.86. This indicates a broader concern in the bond market.

### 16. US02Y (US Government Bonds 2 YR Yield) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (FOR YIELDS)
**Pattern:** spike up
**Key Levels:** 3.666%, 3.8%, 4.0%

Yields are going up, driven by inflation reports. The 2-year yield spiked up significantly. This is a big breakout, suggesting that 4% and 3.8% are both possibilities. This tends to spook the markets.

### 17. CLZ2026 (Crude Oil Futures (Dec 2026)) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding high
**Key Levels:** 73.02 (holding high), 68.30

Crude oil futures for December 2026 are still holding quite high at 73.02. This indicates similar risk on the long tail of oil futures.

### 18. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher high, change towards upside
**Key Levels:** 79.716 (Take Profit Zone)

The shorter tail of USOIL has come down but has started to change towards the upside, creating a higher high. The market has broken up a little, with a take profit zone around 79.716.

### 19. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil) (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher high
**Key Levels:** 79.716 (Take Profit Zone)

On the 4-hour timeframe, USOIL shows a clear higher high, confirming the upward movement. The market has broken up a little, with a take profit zone around 79.716.

### 20. SMH/SPY (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** broken down, still holding
**Key Levels:** 0.5930, 0.5800, 0.5600

The backbone of the market, semiconductors (SMH) versus SPY, has broken down but is still holding. This is an important factor, as it suggests resilience despite the broader market weakness.

### 21. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rallied up, big decision point
**Key Levels:** 317.99, 261.05

Semiconductors themselves (SMH) are still holding okay. They have rallied up and are at a big decision point. This space will be covered a lot in future videos.

### 22. HSID (Hang Seng Index Futures) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** first touch point, rejection
**Key Levels:** 26,000 (first touch point), 24,985 (support)

The Chinese markets (Hang Seng Index Futures) are hitting some of the first touch points where bears come in, often the 20-moving average. We are seeing a little bit of a rejection at 26,000, with support at 24,985.

### 23. GOLD (Gold (XAUUSD)) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** sell-off
**Key Levels:** 4893.23, 4581.20, 4395.47

At the time of recording, there's a little bit of a sell-off across the board in gold. Generally speaking, anything that has been sold heavily in previous months actually held up, suggesting Wall Street is bunkering and moving out of higher-risk assets.

### 24. TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** held up
**Key Levels:** 376.66, 331.83

Tesla held up, suggesting Wall Street is bunkering and moving out of what they consider higher risk. The key thing to watch for the next 24 hours is the S&P 500.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The video discusses a potential shift in market sentiment, with financials underperforming and yields rising due to inflation concerns. It also highlights the resilience of oversold sectors like software and crypto, suggesting a flight to these assets during risk-off events. The overall tone points to a cautious and potentially bearish environment, with a focus on intermarket analysis.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch the 20-weekly moving average on SPX as a key mean reversion level.
- Monitor the breakdown of 6760 on US500 as a potential trigger for further sells.
- Be aware of potential negative gamma events if the 6775 put wall on SPX options is breached.
- Pay close attention to the bond market, especially corporate bonds and high-yield junk, as they are showing weakness.
- Watch for further spikes in 2-year yields, as this tends to spook markets.
- Observe the S&P 500 for the next 24 hours as a key indicator.

## All Instruments Mentioned
US500, SPX, USOIL, JPM, SMH, TSLA, IGV, ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT, XLF, XLF/SPY, LQD, HYG, US02Y, CLZ2026, HSID, GOLD

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-03-11 23:00:59*