# LIVE: US Stock Market Monday Open: Markets Rally But Will It Last? SP500, QQQ, NVDA, GOLD
**Date:** 2026-03-16  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lhcgpx0oJDw)

## Main Thesis
The market is currently in a critical phase with mixed signals across different asset classes. While some sectors like crypto and agriculture show strength, major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are at pivotal resistance levels, and financials are showing signs of contagion. The overall market sentiment is shifting, and cross-correlation analysis suggests potential for further downside or a period of consolidation, with a strong emphasis on patience and reacting to price action rather than predicting.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. BTCUSDT (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation after a sharp drop
**Key Levels:** 73804.16 resistance, 65170.99 support

The chart shows BTCUSDT on a daily timeframe. The price is consolidating after a significant drop. Key levels are marked at 73804.16 as resistance and 65170.99 as support. The speaker notes the volatility of the previous week and mentions discussing stocks, bonds, and market education. He highlights the importance of patience and reacting to price rather than predicting.

### 2. US500 (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend, hitting support
**Key Levels:** 6717.5 support, 6600-6500 key zone
**Historical Comparison:** similar behavior in 2020 (COVID crash) and earlier periods where hitting the 20 EMA often led to hitting the 50 EMA

The US500 chart on a weekly timeframe shows a significant fall, closing on a low last week. The price hit a support level around 6600, which is also the 50 EMA. The speaker identifies a key zone between 6600 and 6500, noting that historically, when the price breaks the 20 EMA, it often falls to the 50 EMA. He points out a previous instance where the market hit the 20 EMA, sold off, and then hit the 50 EMA. This pattern has been consistent over the past 5-8 years, including during the COVID crash.

### 3. US500 (2h)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend, broken trendline
**Key Levels:** 6717.5 resistance, 6600-6500 support zone

On a 2-hour timeframe, the US500 shows a clear downtrend with a broken trendline. The speaker points out a 'most traded zone' around 6800-6850 and a breach to the downside, leading to the current fall. He reiterates the importance of technical analysis in these situations. The price is currently around 6670, approaching the 6600-6500 support zone.

### 4. US2000 (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend, hitting psychological support
**Key Levels:** 2418.5 first major target, 2290.7 market turns bullish, 2220 good buy zone

The US2000 on a weekly timeframe shows a downtrend, hitting 2400. The speaker considers 2400 a psychological zone rather than a critical technical level. He suggests that a more significant support could be lower, around 2290.7 or 2220. He notes that the price hit the 50 EMA, which is a common occurrence after a downtrend.

### 5. NAS100 (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend, hitting major support
**Key Levels:** 23944.7 major support, 21871.4 resistance 1, 20715.9 first support

The NAS100 on a daily timeframe shows a downtrend, hitting 24000. The speaker identifies 24000 as a major zone, representing a previous two-time buy pressure support. He states that if the price breaks through 24000, it will likely continue lower, which would be 'quite diabolical for markets'. He notes the partial correlation with other indices but expresses a preference for the S&P 500's 50-weekly moving average as a more reliable indicator.

### 6. XLF (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend, broken lower
**Key Levels:** 49.94 resistance, 46.55 support

The XLF (financials ETF) on a daily timeframe shows a break lower, indicating 'some signs of contagion'. The speaker mentions BlackRock limiting private equity funds and Wells Fargo being exposed. He highlights that financials are now the worst-performing sector this year, down 11% compared to the S&P's 2-3% decline. This divergence is a critical indicator, suggesting potential debt problems.

### 7. WFC (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend, hitting technical support
**Key Levels:** 74.57 resistance, 61.69 support

Wells Fargo (WFC) on a daily timeframe shows a downtrend, hitting a major trendline support. The speaker notes that while the news about private equity funds has gone mainstream, the price action is hitting technical supports, suggesting a potential bounce today or tomorrow.

### 8. GS (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend, hitting critical level
**Key Levels:** 784.21 resistance, 699.89 support

Goldman Sachs (GS) on a daily timeframe shows a downtrend, hitting a critical level around 790. The speaker reiterates that everything seems to be hitting technical supports, and he expects a bounce today or tomorrow for banks.

### 9. SMH (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend, potential head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 375.29 support, 261.05 support

The SMH (semiconductor ETF) on a daily timeframe is 'starting to look dodgy' but not failing yet. The speaker identifies a potential head and shoulders pattern, with a high, a low, a higher high, and a return to a similar area. He notes that semiconductors are still holding the trendline against the S&P 500 (SMH/SPY ratio), with 0.55 being a critical ratio to watch. If this ratio breaks, it could signal further weakness.

### 10. US02Y (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH (YIELDS)
**Pattern:** uptrend in yields
**Key Levels:** 3.698% resistance, 3.630% support
**Historical Comparison:** aggressive rate cuts before COVID crisis

The US02Y (2-year government bond yield) on a weekly timeframe shows yields going up. The speaker highlights that this is a 'tough to read' market, not as clear as energy flows a few months ago. He questions whether falling financials and rising interest rates are a sign of significant weakness. He contrasts the current situation with the aggressive rate cuts seen before the COVID crisis, noting that the central bank was actively cutting rates then, whereas now the market is struggling to do so.

### 11. CORN (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend, rallying
**Key Levels:** 465.45 current price

The CORN (corn futures) on a weekly timeframe shows a rally, with prices starting to spike this year. The speaker mentions that soft commodities are 'scary' but are moving, which aligns with the idea of rising inflation.

### 12. WHEAT (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend, rallying
**Key Levels:** 607.70 current price

The WHEAT (wheat futures) on a weekly timeframe shows a rally, with prices spiking this year. This coincides with the yield pushing up, indicating inflationary pressures.

### 13. ETHUSDT (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout after consolidation
**Key Levels:** 2163.33 retail steal, 1896.35 support

The ETHUSDT chart on a daily timeframe shows a breakout after a period of consolidation. The speaker highlights a 'big rejection week' followed by a breakout. He notes that crypto markets are 'a little bit stronger' and have been 'beaten down', suggesting they might be finding demand at good levels. He identifies a technical channel where the price could extrapolate higher.

### 14. BTCUSDT (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout after consolidation
**Key Levels:** 65170.99 support, 78559.11 resistance, 94565.84 day trade buy

The BTCUSDT chart on a weekly timeframe shows a similar pattern to ETHUSDT, with a sharp drop followed by consolidation and a breakout. The price came down to a 'very well traded range' around 65170.99, where the speaker expects a 'larger buyer to come in'. He emphasizes patience and not predicting. Bitcoin is breaking to new highs despite the broader market conditions, suggesting strong demand and liquidations at lower levels.

### 15. SOLUSD (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout from a base
**Key Levels:** 90.52 current price, 104.60 potential target

Solana (SOLUSD) on a daily timeframe shows a technical base and a breakout. The speaker identifies a potential A=B pattern, suggesting a target around 104. This further supports the idea of strength in crypto markets.

### 16. IGV (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downtrend, potential accumulation
**Key Levels:** 84.99 pre-market, 77.85 support

The IGV (software ETF) on a daily timeframe shows a downtrend but with signs of accumulation at the bottom. The speaker notes that software is up about 1% in pre-market. He compares it to Bitcoin, suggesting that like Bitcoin, software has been 'beaten down' and is now showing big volumes at the bottom, indicating a potential base. He emphasizes the importance of volume and structure in Wyckoff analysis.

### 17. US500 (4h)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend, respecting anchored VWAP
**Key Levels:** 6600-6500 support zone, 6700 psychological resistance

The US500 on a 4-hour timeframe is the most important chart to watch. The speaker highlights the anchored VWAP from the high, showing respect on the way down. He identifies a pivotal resistance around 6700 and 6840. He states that the bears are currently in control, with the 4-hour 20 moving average and anchored VWAP acting as pivotal resistance. He suggests a potential rally today could be a 'one, two, three' bounce before further downside.

### 18. USOIL (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** basing structure, breakout
**Key Levels:** 100.00 resistance, 80.218 support

The USOIL (crude oil) on a 4-hour timeframe shows a basing structure and a breakout through resistance. The price has moved up towards 100. The speaker notes a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish trend. He questions whether he still likes the oil market given recent events, implying increased risk.

### 19. SILVER (2h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** sharp rally and dump, then consolidation
**Key Levels:** 115.8298 resistance, 78.8970 current price

Silver on a 2-hour timeframe shows a sharp rally followed by a dump, then consolidation. The speaker describes this as 'volatility entering' the market, with high levels of 'exuberance' (call options, squeezes) followed by a return to 'reality' (subdued action). He notes that all eyes are on oil, and if it's in the press, it's in the price.

### 20. DX1! (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Wyckoff base, hitting resistance
**Key Levels:** 100.250 resistance, 99.815 current price, 99.585 support
**Historical Comparison:** similar to previous periods where cash was considered 'trash' then became 'king'

The DX1! (US Dollar Index Futures) on a daily timeframe shows a 'Wyckoff base' and has hit the 100.30 resistance level. The speaker highlights the extreme shift in sentiment from 'cash is trash' to 'cash is king' just a few months ago, noting that the dollar was historically shorted. He points out that the price went to a major trendline and is now rejecting off resistance. If it breaks through 100.30, it could expose levels like 103.80, pushing yields up and potentially impacting treasuries.

### 21. TLT (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend, hitting trendline
**Key Levels:** 86.76 pre-market, 83.27 bull zone

The TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) on a weekly timeframe shows a downtrend, hitting a trendline. The speaker notes that if the dollar strengthens and yields rise, treasuries might make new lows, which would be 'diabolical'. He emphasizes that this is something to keep an eye on, as the dollar is a very interesting pair to watch alongside the S&P 500.

### 22. CLZ2026 (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend, hitting previous highs
**Key Levels:** 75.50 current price, 77.50 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** hitting the same highs as during the crisis a week ago

The CLZ2026 (Crude Oil Futures Dec 2026) on a daily timeframe shows an uptrend, with the price hitting the exact same highs as it did during the crisis just a week ago. The speaker highlights this as a major concern, indicating that the market is pricing in 'longer-lasting geopolitical conflict'. He warns that this could lead to 'exacerbation and recessions', with massive inflation potentially causing stagflation or deflation. He advises watching these long-dated futures closely.

### 23. DX1! (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Wyckoff base, hitting resistance
**Key Levels:** 99.785 current price, 100.145 resistance, 98.095 support
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 2018 and 2020 where the dollar strengthened despite talks of rate cuts

The DX1! (US Dollar Index Futures) on a weekly timeframe shows a Wyckoff base, hitting resistance around 100.145. The speaker notes that the dollar has been 'not even discussed' for quite some time, but it has been consolidating. He points out that historically, during mid-term years (like 2018 and 2026), the dollar tends to strengthen even when there are talks of rate cuts. He emphasizes that the S&P 500 and the dollar are the two most important charts to watch.

### 24. JP10Y (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (YIELDS)
**Pattern:** uptrend in yields
**Key Levels:** 2.282% current price, 2.066% support

The JP10Y (Japan Government Bonds 10 Year Yield) on a daily timeframe shows yields rising, almost reaching new all-time highs. This indicates inflation in Japan. The speaker notes that this is part of the broader macro picture, where cross-correlation is key.

### 25. JP30Y (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (YIELDS)
**Pattern:** uptrend in yields, hitting critical level
**Key Levels:** 3.558% current price, 3.450% support

The JP30Y (Japan Government Bonds 30 Year Yield) on a daily timeframe also shows yields rising significantly. The speaker identifies a critical level around 3.450%, where the price has bounced off previously. He considers this a critical level to watch.

### 26. USDJPY (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend, approaching multi-decade highs
**Key Levels:** 160.255 resistance, 159.212 current price

The USDJPY on a weekly timeframe shows the US dollar strengthening against the Yen, approaching multi-decade highs. The speaker notes that this, combined with other market signals, paints a picture of a 'late, late cycle' in the market. He emphasizes that this is not an easy market to read, with cracks appearing that suggest caution.

### 27. IWM/SPY (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend, hitting resistance
**Key Levels:** 0.3728 current price, 0.3876 resistance

The IWM/SPY (Russell 2000 vs S&P 500 ratio) on a weekly timeframe shows a downtrend. The speaker notes that the Russell 2000 'beat the S&P' since the Fed cut, which is unusual. He considers this a problem, as it suggests underlying weakness in smaller-cap stocks compared to large-cap stocks.

### 28. HYG (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend, falling through support
**Key Levels:** 79.91 resistance, 76.69 support

The HYG (iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) on a weekly timeframe shows a downtrend, falling through supports. The speaker notes that this 'junk bond' ETF doesn't look like a 'great candle either', indicating further weakness.

### 29. LQD (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend, falling
**Key Levels:** 109.35 resistance, 107.96 current price

The LQD (iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF) on a weekly timeframe shows a downtrend. The speaker notes that these corporate bonds also fell, although they are seeing a bit of a bounce today, which could just be a relief rally.

### 30. XLU (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend, potential 'pit' pattern
**Key Levels:** 47.23 current price, 44.07 support

The XLU (Utilities ETF) on a daily timeframe shows an uptrend, with the speaker identifying a potential 'pit' pattern (upward trend, consolidation, then potential upward trend). He notes that utilities could be an interesting sector to watch.

### 31. REMX (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** rally, hitting resistance
**Key Levels:** 99.12 resistance, 89.51 current price

The REMX (Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF) on a weekly timeframe shows a significant rally, hitting resistance around 99.12. The speaker notes that this sector has already rallied quite a lot.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The speaker emphasizes the importance of cross-correlation and macro analysis in the current market. He highlights the divergence between the overall stock market (S&P 500) and specific sectors like financials, which are showing signs of contagion. The strengthening US dollar and rising yields are also key macro factors, suggesting potential for further market weakness or a period of deflation. He notes that while some sectors like crypto and agriculture are showing strength, the overall picture is complex and requires careful observation of key technical levels and market flows.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch the S&P 500 (US500) closely, especially the 6600-6500 support zone and the 50-weekly moving average.
- If the Nasdaq (NAS100) breaks through 24000, it could lead to further downside.
- Financials (XLF, WFC, GS) are showing signs of contagion and are a major concern.
- Long-dated oil futures (CLZ2026) are pricing in longer-lasting geopolitical conflict, which is a major concern for inflation and potential recessions.
- The US Dollar Index (DX1!) is forming a Wyckoff base and could strengthen, pushing yields up and pressuring treasuries.
- Patience is key; avoid predicting and instead react to confirmed price action and technical breaks.
- The market is not easy to read, and sometimes the best action is to do nothing.

## All Instruments Mentioned
BTCUSDT, US500, US2000, NAS100, XLF, WFC, GS, SMH, US02Y, CORN, WHEAT, ETHUSDT, SOLUSD, IGV, DX1!, TLT, CLZ2026, JP10Y, JP30Y, USDJPY, IWM/SPY, HYG, LQD, XLU, REMX

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-03-16 23:07:09*