# We Have Not Seen This Happen Since 2007...
**Date:** 2026-03-17  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1CNvi34dSw)

## Main Thesis
The market is showing signs reminiscent of 2007, with both technology and financial sectors trading below their 200-day moving averages, indicating potential for significant market shifts and a need for careful stock picking and sector rotation.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. XLK (Technology ETF) & XLF (Financials ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** both trading below 200-day moving average
**Key Levels:** XLK -0.33%, XLF -8.42%
**Historical Comparison:** 2007

Both big technology stocks (XLK) and financials (XLF) are trading under their 200-daily moving average, a rare occurrence not seen since 2007. This suggests serious concerns about market breadth.

### 2. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH (DUE TO SHORT VOLUME)
**Pattern:** sideways consolidation, potential for short squeeze
**Key Levels:** 6600-6500 area (support)

The S&P 500 has been trading sideways and has dropped to the 6600-6500 area. Short ETF volume has spiked heavily, which historically can sometimes mark a point where the market finds buy pressure, potentially leading to short squeezes.

### 3. US2Y (US Government Bonds 2-Year Yield) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH (FOR BONDS)
**Pattern:** yields breaking up
**Key Levels:** 3.630% (support), 3.684% (current)

Yields are breaking up, oil is shaky, and bonds are starting to break down. This indicates potential economic concerns.

### 4. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** cup and handle formation, potential for breakout
**Key Levels:** 73,804.16 (support), 65,170.99 (support)

Bitcoin is showing a cup and handle formation, suggesting it might be doing better than expected. The price is currently above 75,000, with support levels identified at 73,804 and 65,170.

### 5. S&P 500 Performance when Financials and Technology Trade Below Their 200 Day Moving Average (Since 2000) (historical data)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** significant turning points in markets
**Key Levels:** -34.24% annualized return when both XLF & XLK below 200DMA
**Historical Comparison:** Global Financial Crisis, 2011-2012 period, 2018 period

When both XLF and XLK are below their 200-day moving average, it's a rare but significant turning point. While sometimes short-lived (like the 2025 tariff tantrum), it has historically preceded more significant falls, including the Global Financial Crisis and downturns in 2011-2012 and 2018. The annualized return in such periods is -34.24%.

### 6. S&P 500 vs. Asset Managers' Net Position (weekly (1-week change))

**Bias:** CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH (DUE TO POTENTIAL SHORT SQUEEZE)
**Pattern:** asset managers heavily shorting
**Key Levels:** S&P 500 at all-time high

Asset managers have been heavily shorting, backing up the data from macrocharts. This could indicate a potential area where bids could come in, as too many people turning negative can sometimes lead to short squeezes.

### 7. S&P 500 Performance During Major Global Oil Supply Disruptions (historical data (trading days))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH (SHORT-TERM)
**Pattern:** market falls then stabilizes
**Key Levels:** 10-15% drops, 60-100 days to bottom out
**Historical Comparison:** Arab Oil Embargo, Iranian Revolution, Iraq Invades Kuwait, Russia-Ukraine War, Current US-Iran Conflict

During major global oil supply disruptions, markets often fall by 10-15% and take around 60-100 days to bottom out before stabilizing. This current US-Iran conflict is still ongoing, suggesting potential for further market volatility.

### 8. AAPL (Apple Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** resistance retests and sell-offs
**Key Levels:** 275 (resistance), 250 (support), 225 (support), 200 (support), 175 (support)

Apple has seen rallies sold off twice at the 275 resistance level, with the market stabilizing back at the support level where previous rallies originated. This indicates strong resistance and potential for further declines if support breaks.

### 9. XLF (Finance Sector ETF) Fund Flows (30-day total)

**Bias:** BULLISH (CONTRARIAN)
**Pattern:** significant decline in fund flows
**Key Levels:** very negative fund flows

Fund flows for XLF are very negative, indicating oversold conditions. Historically, when a sector is heavily discussed in the press and shows such negative flows, it can present an opportunity for big players to push it up.

### 10. Bitcoin Cumulative Net Flows Drawdown from ATH (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** accumulation at lows
**Key Levels:** -42.1 billion in net inflows since low in cumulative ETF flows on Feb 23

Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $42.1 billion in net inflows since the low in cumulative ETF flows on February 23. This shows big players have been accumulating at these lows, which is a positive sign for the cryptocurrency.

### 11. Bitcoin vs Gold (Days Without New 30-Day Highs) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH (FOR BITCOIN)
**Pattern:** Bitcoin outperforming Gold
**Key Levels:** Bitcoin starting to perform better than Gold
**Historical Comparison:** longest streak in history

Bitcoin is starting to perform better than Gold, marking the first time in over 200 days. This suggests a shift in investor preference towards Bitcoin as a store of value.

### 12. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** declining breadth
**Key Levels:** 6600-6500 (support)

The S&P 500 is showing declining breadth, meaning more stocks are falling than rising. This is not a good sign and is the first time this has happened in a while.

### 13. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (2-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs (downtrend)
**Key Levels:** 6783.9 (daily options high), 6624.9 (daily options low), 6531.8 (support), 6500 (support)

The S&P 500 is forming a series of lower lows and lower highs, indicating a clear downtrend. If it breaks below 6500, it could trigger a 'waterfall effect'. Volume is also increasing on the downside.

### 14. QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) Options Expirations (multi-expiration)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH (DUE TO PUT SUPPORT)
**Pattern:** put support at round numbers
**Key Levels:** 600 (strike price), 590 (strike price)

Options data for QQQ shows significant put support at the 600 and 590 strike prices, indicating that big players are protecting against further downside. This could act as a base for the market.

### 15. IBIT (BlackRock Bitcoin ETF) Options Expirations (multi-expiration)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive gamma effect
**Key Levels:** 42 (strike price)

Options data for IBIT shows a positive gamma effect if the price pushes above 42, which could create a squeeze effect on Bitcoin. This aligns with the bullish sentiment for Bitcoin.

### 16. NVDA (NVIDIA Corp) Options Expirations (multi-expiration)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** hype not sustaining price
**Key Levels:** 180 (strike price)

NVIDIA's options data suggests that even with the hype around AI and potential revenue doubling, the stock is struggling to maintain upward momentum. It went up and then back down, indicating that the market is not as easily hyped as in 2024.

### 17. SPHB/SPLV (High Beta vs Low Volatility ETF Ratio) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** high beta underperforming low volatility
**Key Levels:** 1.57 (current ratio)

The ratio of high beta to low volatility ETFs is showing that high beta stocks are not performing well. This indicates a shift away from riskier assets, which is a bearish sign for the overall market.

### 18. DXY (US Dollar Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Wyckoff base, potential breakout
**Key Levels:** 100.250 (resistance), 100.000 (resistance), 99.655 (support), 99.585 (support)

The US Dollar Index is forming a Wyckoff base, and a break above 100.250 could expose yields to further inflation. This is a critical level to watch, as a strong dollar can impact other asset classes.

### 19. SMH/SPY (Semiconductors vs S&P 500 Ratio) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding trendline
**Key Levels:** 0.5888 (current ratio)

Semiconductors, the backbone of the US economy (AI), are still holding up for now, maintaining their upward trendline against the S&P 500. This suggests resilience in the tech sector despite broader market concerns.

### 20. HYG (iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** breakdown
**Key Levels:** 79.93 (support)

High yield junk bonds have broken down, marking the first time in over six months. This is a significant warning sign for credit markets and the broader economy.

### 21. XLK (State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** underperformance below 200-day moving average
**Key Levels:** -2.22% (XLK performance), -15.20% (SPX performance), -51.04% (XLF performance)
**Historical Comparison:** 2007

Technology (XLK) and Financials (XLF) are both underperforming and trading below their 200-day moving averages, a situation last seen in 2007. This reinforces the idea that the market is currently a 'stock picker's market' with sector rotation being key.

### 22. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)) (2-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** volatile, up-down movement
**Key Levels:** 79.716 (take profit zone)
**Historical Comparison:** similar to Gold's volatility

Oil is very volatile, with prices moving up and down, similar to Gold. This makes it a tough market to trade, and it reminds of previous periods of high volatility in commodities.

### 23. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** not breaking down yet
**Key Levels:** 24,056.7 (first support), 21,871.4 (resistance 1)

Nasdaq 100 is not yet underneath 24,000, indicating it hasn't broken down significantly. It's currently on its first support level.

### 24. TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** hits off 20-moving average, declining
**Key Levels:** 395.56 (resistance), 376.66 (support)

Tesla is consistently hitting off its 20-moving average and is on a daily decline. This indicates continued selling pressure.

### 25. HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** central bank intervention, bouncing
**Key Levels:** 24,985 (major support)

Chinese stocks (Hang Seng) have done a little better, with central banks getting involved. The market has bounced off a major support level at 24,985, showing some signs of life.

### 26. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding major support, big volume
**Key Levels:** 18.35% (major support)
**Historical Comparison:** correlated with Bitcoin

Software (IGV) is still holding relatively well around its major support level, with big volume. Software tends to stick with Bitcoin, and with Bitcoin moving up, software might follow.

### 27. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout
**Key Levels:** 78,741.09 (next zone), 65,170.99 (support)

Bitcoin has managed to break up, and from a technical level, the next zone it could be heading towards is around 79,000.

### 28. ETHUSDT (Ethereum) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout from channel
**Key Levels:** 2532.63 (most traded zone), 2927.38 (mini bull level), 3444.29 (bulls take control)

Ethereum has broken out of a big channel and has gone from strength to strength over the last 24 hours. The expectation is that it could be heading towards the psychological level of around 2500, and potentially higher towards 2927 and 3444.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a 'stock picker's market' and 'sector rotation' style regime, with significant concerns arising from both technology and financial sectors trading below their 200-day moving averages, a pattern not seen since 2007. Oil supply disruptions are also creating economic uncertainties, leading to potential stagflation or deflation. However, there are signs of potential short squeezes in the S&P 500 due to high short ETF volume and accumulation in Bitcoin ETFs, suggesting a complex and potentially volatile period ahead.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch for a US Dollar Index breakout above 100.250, which could indicate significant risk and further inflation.
- Pay attention to the S&P 500's 6500-6600 level; a break below 6500 could trigger a 'waterfall effect'.
- Bitcoin and software companies are showing signs of strength and correlation, potentially outperforming other sectors.
- High yield junk bonds are breaking down, signaling a warning for credit markets.
- The market is currently a 'stock picker's market' with an emphasis on sector rotation due to broad underperformance in key sectors.

## All Instruments Mentioned
XLK, XLF, SPX, US2Y, BTCUSDT, AAPL, DXY, SMH, SPHB, SPLV, HYG, USOIL, NAS100, TSLA, NVDA, HSI1!, IGV, ETHUSDT, Gold, Silver

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-03-17 23:00:39*