# This Has Happened 3 Times Before...
**Date:** 2026-03-18  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suuUC4WJZsA)

## Main Thesis
The market is showing signs of potential weakness, with credit markets widening, cash allocations at historical lows, and breadth breaking down, suggesting a possible peak or sideways action, although some sectors like crypto are showing resilience.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. HYG (iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend, potential accumulation bottom
**Key Levels:** 79.81 support

The HYG ETF is showing a downtrend, with a potential accumulation bottom forming around the 79.81 level. The speaker notes that credit default swaps are widening, which historically has been a sign of market peaks.

### 2. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend from recent highs
**Key Levels:** 6716.08 current price

The S&P 500 Index is shown in a downtrend from recent highs, with the speaker highlighting that this is happening near all-time highs on the markets.

### 3. US02Y (US Government Bonds 2 Year Yield) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (YIELDS RISING)
**Pattern:** downtrend, breaking out to the upside
**Key Levels:** 3.659% current yield, 3.630% support

The US 2-Year Government Bond Yield is breaking out to the upside from a downtrend, indicating rising inflation expectations.

### 4. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** accumulation bottom
**Key Levels:** 74170.37 current price, 73804.16 resistance, 65170.99 support, 64000 support

Bitcoin is starting to look like it could be forming an accumulation bottom, with a strong rally from the 65,170.99 support level and breaking above 73,804.16. The speaker notes this is a very different market compared to others.

### 5. S&P 500 / AAII Cash Allocation % (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** cash allocation at historical lows
**Key Levels:** 14.19% cash allocation
**Historical Comparison:** similar to Nov 2017 - Jan 2018, Jan 2020, Jun-Aug 2021 peaks

The AAII Cash Allocation % is at 14.19%, a very low level, indicating high investor exposure. Historically, the last three times cash allocation was this low, the S&P 500 was near market peaks, leading to sideways action or significant declines (like the COVID pandemic).

### 6. S&P 500 / Credit Default Swaps (CDX Index) (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** widening credit spreads
**Key Levels:** 4125 (SPX current), Credit Default Swaps widening
**Historical Comparison:** credit spreads expanding past 2009 levels during financial crash

Credit Default Swaps (CDX Index) are starting to widen, indicating increasing risk in bond markets. This is happening while the S&P 500 is within 5% of its high. The speaker notes that AI and Oracle bond credit default swaps have expanded to levels higher than in 2009 during the financial crash. Historically, when bonds flinch near all-time highs, it's been a very interesting point, often preceding market downturns.

### 7. S&P 500 Large Cap / Mid Cap / Small Cap Moving Average Heat Map (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** breadth breakdown
**Key Levels:** 34.7% S&P 500 above 50-day MA, 27.6% S&P 400 above 50-day MA, 28.5% S&P 600 above 50-day MA

The percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving average has dwindled across large, mid, and small caps (e.g., 27.4% for S&P 600), indicating a breadth breakdown in the market. This is not a new story and often precedes market sell-offs.

### 8. Risk-On / Risk-Off Ratio (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** risk-off sentiment rising
**Key Levels:** 138.9 current ratio

The Risk-On / Risk-Off Ratio shows a recent shift towards risk-off sentiment. Risk-off assets like Gold, US Treasury Bonds, Yen, Utilities, and Staples are outperforming, while risk-on assets like Copper, Aussie Dollar, Semiconductors, and High Beta are underperforming. This is a critical observation in the current market.

### 9. FOMC Interest Rate Decision / S&P 500 Performance (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** market reaction to rate decisions
**Key Levels:** 3.75% current Federal Funds Rate
**Historical Comparison:** since Fed cut in 2025, market has been very different

This chart shows S&P 500 performance around FOMC interest rate decisions. The speaker notes that since the Federal Reserve cut rates in 2025, the market has been in a 'later cycle style market'. The upcoming FOMC decision is expected to be a 'no change' to interest rates, but the press conference will be key. A rate hike would be very negative for markets.

### 10. S&P 500 Performance During March Quadruple Witching Events (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (INCREASED VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** increased volatility around quadruple witching
**Key Levels:** 50% coin flip on event day

This week is a quadruple witching event, meaning many options expirations. Historically, this can create a lot of volatility, especially the day before and on the event day itself, with a near 50/50 chance of up or down movement.

### 11. S&P 500 / Short ETF Volume (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH (RETAIL SHORTING)
**Pattern:** spike in short ETF volume
**Key Levels:** spike in short ETF volume

There's a spike in short ETF volume, particularly in SPY ETFs. This suggests that a lot of retail traders are trying to short the market. Historically, when markets get oversold, they often find basing structures. The speaker also mentions Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs coming down to technical support.

### 12. S&P 500 / Asset Managers' Net Position ($) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH (CONTRARIAN)
**Pattern:** asset managers net positions oversold
**Key Levels:** asset managers oversold

Asset managers' net positions have been oversold. This is often seen as a contrarian indicator, suggesting a potential bounce or reversal in the market.

### 13. IVV (iShares Core S&P 500 ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (ACTIVITY BUT NO CLEAR DIRECTION)
**Pattern:** dark pool activity clustering
**Key Levels:** 670-680 resistance, 660 support

Dark pool activity has started to rise on IVV, a large S&P 500 ETF. Transactions are clustering, especially at the peak and around the base levels. This indicates significant institutional activity, but doesn't necessarily mean the price will go up; it could also be activity leading to shorting.

### 14. S&P 500 Performance During Major Global Oil Supply Disruptions (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH (HISTORICAL SELL-OFFS)
**Pattern:** market sell-offs during oil disruptions
**Key Levels:** 60-100 days for market bottom
**Historical Comparison:** Arab Oil Embargo, Iranian Revolution, Iraq Invades Kuwait, Russia-Ukraine War

This chart shows S&P 500 performance during various global oil supply disruptions. The general gist is that it often takes around 60 to 100 days for the market to bottom out after such events. Some events caused 10-15% sell-offs, with one even worse. The current US-Iran conflict is still in its early stages.

### 15. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower highs and lower lows
**Key Levels:** 6716.08 current price, 6750 resistance, 6556.43 support

The S&P 500 is showing a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows, indicating a downtrend. The market is currently sitting around the 6750 level, which is a key resistance point. The speaker will be watching if the market can break through this level.

### 16. US500 (S&P 500 Futures) (1-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (AT CRITICAL RESISTANCE)
**Pattern:** downward trendline, most traded area
**Key Levels:** 6748.7 current price, 6778.9 daily options high, 6793.6 resistance, 6642.0 daily options low, 6531.8 support

The S&P 500 futures are approaching a couple of key points: a major resistance area of the downward trendline and a very important 'most traded area' (box structure). While the market is looking a bit more bullish by breaking a higher high, this zone is a critical resistance. Shorting markets is difficult, but this is a critical level coming up, possibly into the Fed announcement.

### 17. SPX (S&P 500 Index) Options (weekly (expirations))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH (HEDGING CAN BE SUPPORTIVE)
**Pattern:** put heavy options market
**Key Levels:** 6700 strike price (most struck), 6600 strike price, 6500 strike price

The options market shows a lot of puts around the 6700 strike price, which is now the most struck level. By the end of the week, 6700 and 6600 are very well struck, as are levels down to 6500 in the future. This indicates tons of hedging by the biggest players, and while many puts can suggest bearish sentiment, it can also be a supportive thing for the market if they get too high.

### 18. QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) Options (weekly (expirations))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH (HEDGING CAN BE SUPPORTIVE)
**Pattern:** put heavy options market
**Key Levels:** 600 strike price

Similar to SPX, the QQQ options market shows a lot of puts around the 600 strike price, indicating significant hedging activity.

### 19. NVDA (NVIDIA Corp) Options (weekly (expirations))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding above key support
**Key Levels:** 170 support

NVIDIA options show the stock is still holding above 170, which is a critical level.

### 20. TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) Options (weekly (expirations))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH (ABOVE RESISTANCE)
**Pattern:** bullish above 400-410
**Key Levels:** 400-410 resistance

Tesla options suggest that above 400-410, things start to get a lot more bullish. Currently, the market is hovering around a zone.

### 21. IBB (iShares Biotechnology ETF) Options (weekly (expirations))

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** market recovery
**Key Levels:** 42.27 spot price

IBB is showing the market starting to recover. The speaker notes that when the market finds a lot of volatility, often the beaten-down sectors can find accumulation bases. There's a possibility of positive gamma coming back into the market.

### 22. VIX (Volatility S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH (CALMING EFFECT)
**Pattern:** VIX under 10-day MA after rally
**Key Levels:** 22.36 current level, 12.68 support
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 2025 and Oct 2025

The VIX is currently under its 10-day moving average after rallying up. Historically, this has often been a calming effect on the market, supportive of a potential base on market structure, as seen in 2025 and October 2025.

### 23. PCC (CBOE Put/Call Ratio) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH (HEDGING CAN BE SUPPORTIVE)
**Pattern:** rising put/call ratio
**Key Levels:** 1.010 current ratio, 1.386 resistance, 0.661 support

The Put/Call Ratio (PCC) is starting to rise, suggesting more puts than calls are being put into the market, indicating lots of hedging activity.

### 24. WFC (Wells Fargo & Company) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH (FINDING SUPPORT)
**Pattern:** testing trendline and heavily traded zone
**Key Levels:** 76.23 current price, 78.00 trendline support, 60.88 heavily traded zone

Wells Fargo has come down to its trendline and a very heavily traded zone. This suggests that even though banks are in the news, they might be looking a bit stronger on the markets, finding a potential supportive zone.

### 25. GS (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH (FINDING SUPPORT)
**Pattern:** testing previous demand zone
**Key Levels:** 807.04 current price, 741.16 previous demand zone

Goldman Sachs has also come down to its previous demand zone, a critical level for the markets. This suggests banks are finding a potential supportive zone.

### 26. US02Y (US Government Bonds 2 Year Yield) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (YIELDS RISING)
**Pattern:** breakout to the upside
**Key Levels:** 3.659% current yield, 3.639% support

The US 2-Year Yield has seen a break up, which is pretty big. After a period of decline, yields have gone up, potentially showing inflation. This could make it difficult for the US to cut rates.

### 27. AU01Y (Australia 1 Year Government Bonds Yield) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (YIELDS RISING)
**Pattern:** making new highs
**Key Levels:** 4.499% current yield

Australian 1-Year Government Bond Yields are making new highs. Australia has already had a rate hike, and its economy is very susceptible to energy crisis periods, leading to yield spikes. This suggests continued inflationary pressures.

### 28. DX1! (US Dollar Index Futures) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (TRAPPED)
**Pattern:** trapped in a range, potential Wyckoff
**Key Levels:** 99.290 current price, 99.585 resistance, 100.250 resistance, 103.680 resistance, 97.940 support
**Historical Comparison:** different to 2023-2024 period

The US Dollar Index Futures are clearly in a very interesting supportive market, trapped between a resistance area and support. The speaker questions if this could be a Wyckoff pattern. The market is waiting to see if it will break above the resistance zone. These are very different signs compared to 2023-2024, suggesting it will be difficult for the US to cut rates.

### 29. SMH/SPY (Semiconductors vs S&P 500 Ratio) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend, backbone intact
**Key Levels:** 0.5917 current ratio, 0.5516 support
**Historical Comparison:** modern day Dow Theory

The Semiconductors vs S&P 500 ratio, considered the modern-day Dow Theory, still has its backbone intact, indicating continued bullishness in the semiconductor sector relative to the broader market.

### 30. GOLD (Gold XAUUSD) (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** ranging, no strong buying pressure
**Key Levels:** 4989.21 current price, 4921.78 most traded zone

Gold hasn't found too much buying pressure yet. After volatility a few months ago, it's been moving up and down, but without a clear directional bias.

### 31. XLK (State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** barely holding on
**Key Levels:** 139.54 current price, 134.07 support, 144 resistance

Technology stocks (XLK) are still barely holding on. Key levels could be above 144, but short candles are being 'bulled against', suggesting weakness. A lot of these markets are holding critical levels.

### 32. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding 24000
**Key Levels:** 24927.1 current price, 24056.7 first support, 21871.4 resistance 1

The Nasdaq 100 is still holding onto 24,000, which is considered structurally bullish on the market. Many markets are holding critical levels.

### 33. TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** continuing to sell off
**Key Levels:** 399.27 current price, 376.66 support

Tesla is continuing to sell off, with no real changes in its daily 20-period moving average. There could be future options moves (gamma) that reflect in the charts.

### 34. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** showing resilience
**Key Levels:** 47.38% current gain, 34.14% support
**Historical Comparison:** similar to Bitcoin

The software sector (IGV), similar to Bitcoin, is still showing signs of resilience even in a market that has been heavily sold.

### 35. ETHUSDT (Ethereum / TetherUS) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout from range-bound base
**Key Levels:** 2327.21 current price, 2163.33 retail steal, 1811.57 support, 2532.63 most traded zone

Ethereum broke up from its range-bound base, potentially forming an A=B channel. It could be heading towards 2500, which is a massive key zone. This is a very different trading pattern compared to other markets.

### 36. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** finding bull pressure, targeting supply zone
**Key Levels:** 74189.51 current price, 79082.08 supply zone, 65170.99 support, 82222.58 resistance

Bitcoin is finding a lot more bull pressure. The 79,000 area was the only supply left on the way down, and markets often target those zones when going back up. Breaking through 72,000 led to more strength. Critical things are happening, with Bitcoin finding bull pressure and banks finding potential supportive zones. The Fed could be the catalyst for further moves.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a 'later cycle style market' since the Federal Reserve cut rates in 2025. There's a clear divergence between traditional markets (SPX, bonds) showing signs of weakness and potential downturns, and crypto/some tech sectors showing resilience and bullish accumulation. The widening credit spreads and low cash allocations suggest complacency and historical peaks in traditional markets. Inflationary pressures are rising, making it difficult for central banks to cut rates. The upcoming FOMC press conference is a critical catalyst.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch the FOMC press conference for market direction.
- Be cautious of potential market peaks and declines in traditional markets due to low cash allocation and widening credit spreads.
- Monitor key technical levels for SPX (6750 resistance), US500 (downward trendline and most traded area), and Bitcoin (79,000 supply zone).
- Observe if the US Dollar Index (DX1!) breaks above its resistance, as it could indicate further difficulties for US rate cuts.
- Consider the resilience of crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum) and software sectors (IGV) as they show bullish accumulation patterns despite broader market concerns.

## All Instruments Mentioned
HYG, SPX, US02Y, BTCUSDT, AAII Cash Allocation %, CDX Index, S&P 500 Large Cap, S&P 400 Mid Cap, S&P 600 Small Cap, Risk-On / Risk-Off Ratio, Gold, Copper, High Yield Bonds, US Treasury Bonds, Yen, Aussie Dollar, Semiconductors, Utilities, Staples, High Beta, FOMC Interest Rate Decision, IVV, QQQ, NVDA, TSLA, IBB, VIX, PCC, WFC, GS, AU01Y, DX1!, SMH/SPY, GOLD, XLK, NAS100, ETHUSDT

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-03-18 23:02:14*