# Wall Street Sets The Trap…
**Date:** 2026-03-19  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZpHf0XTeS74)

## Main Thesis
The market experienced its worst day of 2026 with every sector down, indicating a 'sell everything' session. This is happening in a mid-term election year, which historically brings volatility. Bond yields are rising, signaling stress in the bond market, and the US dollar is showing bullish signs, suggesting a 'race for cash'.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPX (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 6546.34 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The SPX chart shows a significant downturn, with the market approaching a major support level at 6546.34. The speaker highlights that every sector was down, making it a 'sell everything' type of session. He emphasizes the importance of watching this support level and what's happening 'underneath the hood' with bonds.

### 2. HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** breakdown
**Key Levels:** 79.91 resistance, 79.40 support, 76.69 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The HYG chart shows bonds starting to show signs of distress, breaking below a key support level around 79.91. This is the first time in a long time that bonds are showing such weakness, which is a significant concern for the broader market.

### 3. US02Y (US Government Bonds 2 Yr. Yield) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout
**Key Levels:** 3.621% support, 3.779% resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US 2-year yield chart shows a sharp increase, breaking above 3.70%. This surge in yields is attributed to Jerome Powell's statements during the FOMC press conference, indicating a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve.

### 4. DXY (US Dollar Index Futures) (1W)

**Bias:** POTENTIALLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** potential bullish reversal (Wyckoff style base)
**Key Levels:** 100.250 resistance, 99.585 support, 103.300 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US Dollar Index (DXY) chart shows a potential bullish reversal pattern, forming a Wyckoff-style base. The speaker notes that the dollar, often considered the world's biggest hedge, is starting to look bullish, which could indicate a 'race for cash' scenario.

### 5. S&P 500 (FOMC Press Conference Reaction) (intraday)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** sharp sell-off
**Key Levels:** 6780 resistance, 6700 support, 6600 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart illustrates the S&P 500's reaction to the FOMC press conference. The market experienced significant volatility and a sharp sell-off, particularly 30 minutes after the official cash rate announcement. Key points from Powell's speech that influenced the market included concerns about inflation, oil prices, and the timeline for rate cuts.

### 6. Fed Funds Rate & Expected Rate Cuts (monthly)

**Bias:** HAWKISH (LESS DOVISH)
**Pattern:** shift in expectations
**Key Levels:** 3.75% Fed Funds Upper Bound, 3.6% Terminal Rate
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart from Duality Research shows a drastic change in the number of expected rate cuts for 2026 and 2027. Market expectations have shifted from multiple rate cuts to basically none, or maybe one at best, for 2026. This hawkish shift is putting stress on bond markets globally.

### 7. S&P 500 Performance & Moody's Baa Corp Bond Yield 26-Week Momentum (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rising bond yields
**Key Levels:** 0.25% Moody's Baa Corp Bond Yield Momentum
**Historical Comparison:** historical S&P 500 performance during periods of rising/falling bond yields

This chart from Grant Hawkridge shows that when Moody's Baa Corp Bond Yield 26-Week Momentum is above 0 (red shading), the S&P 500's annual return is significantly lower (0.7% vs. 14.8% when below 0). The current red shading indicates rising bond yields, which is historically unfavorable for equity returns. This is happening in a mid-term election year, which tends to be very volatile with potential for two dips.

### 8. Crude Oil Brent, % deviation from trend (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH (RECESSION PROBABILITY)
**Pattern:** surge in energy prices
**Key Levels:** 50% deviation (recession threshold), Oil Brent price > $104
**Historical Comparison:** past recessions (gray bars) following oil price surges

This chart, originally from 2022, shows that a surge in energy prices (Crude Oil Brent > $104) suggests a high probability of recession. While the market avoided a bear market in 2022 despite oil spiking, the current environment with rising oil prices and bond market stress warrants caution. The speaker notes that oil shocks often precede market sell-offs.

### 9. S&P 500 Breadth: Net Advancing Stocks Fall Below -65% (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** sell-everything market
**Key Levels:** -65% net advancers threshold
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 forward performance since 2010 after signals

This chart from Bluekurtic Market Insights shows that net advancing stocks in the S&P 500 have fallen below -65%, indicating a 'sell everything' market or capitulation. Historically, this signal has not always led to shocking negative returns, but it's a rare occurrence where all major sectors are down, suggesting broad market weakness.

### 10. S&P 500 Performance During Major Global Oil Supply Disruptions (daily (trading days))

**Bias:** BEARISH (POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER DIPS)
**Pattern:** market dips during oil disruptions
**Key Levels:** 80-100 trading days (average bottom)
**Historical Comparison:** Arab Oil Embargo, Iranian Revolution, Iraq Invades Kuwait, Russia-Ukraine War, Current U.S.-Iran Conflict

This chart from Bluekurtic Market Insights compares S&P 500 performance during various global oil supply disruptions. The average time to reach a market bottom after such events is 80-100 trading days. Given the current U.S.-Iran conflict, the market is only at the beginning of a potential downturn, with historical cases showing drops of up to 15%.

### 11. S&P 500 Performance During March Quadruple Witching Events (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (INCREASED VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** increased volatility around expiration
**Key Levels:** various % change thresholds
**Historical Comparison:** past quadruple witching events (2000-2025)

This chart from Bluekurtic Market Insights shows S&P 500 performance around March Quadruple Witching events. These periods are characterized by increased options activity and volatility, particularly on the expiration day (Friday) and the day before (Thursday). Traders are advised to be aware and risk-managed during this week.

### 12. IVV (iShares Core S&P 500 ETF) (intraday)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Wall Street selling clusters
**Key Levels:** 670.00 resistance, 660.00 support, 650.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The IVV chart shows significant transaction volume clusters, which the speaker attributes to Wall Street and large players selling out. This selling pressure has led to a market drop, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

### 13. Bitcoin (BTC) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH (DRAWDOWN FROM ATH)
**Pattern:** cumulative net flows drawdown
**Key Levels:** 69000 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart from Duality Research tracks cumulative net flows drawdown from all-time highs for Bitcoin ETFs. It shows a significant drawdown, indicating selling pressure in Bitcoin ETFs. The speaker emphasizes the importance of tracking flows, as they often reveal institutional sentiment.

### 14. Bitcoin (BTC) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH (FLOWS TURNING POSITIVE)
**Pattern:** rolling 30-day ETF flows
**Key Levels:** 50000 support, 10000 threshold for potential technical top
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart from Duality Research shows rolling 30-day Bitcoin ETF flows. Despite recent drops, the flows have rolled from negative to positive, which is a significant development. This could indicate base structure forming and real demand starting to come through for Bitcoin, especially as it came back to its anchored VWAP.

### 15. Gold -> Copper -> Energy -> Agricultural Commodities? (5-year intervals (2000-2026))

**Bias:** BULLISH (COMMODITIES)
**Pattern:** flow-through of metals/commodities
**Key Levels:** various index levels
**Historical Comparison:** historical movements of Gold & Silver Index, Copper Miners Index, Energy Sector ETF, Agricultural & Livestock Index

This chart from Tavi Costa (Azuria Capital) illustrates a historical flow-through pattern in commodities: Gold leads, then Copper, then Energy, and finally Agricultural Commodities. Gold and Copper have seen upward movements, and Energy stocks are rising. Agricultural commodities have also been moving up, suggesting potential stress on the economy if food prices continue to rise.

### 16. Gasoline Prices vs. UN Food and Agriculture World Food Price Index (monthly (2007-2026))

**Bias:** BEARISH (INFLATIONARY PRESSURE)
**Pattern:** energy leads, food follows
**Key Levels:** various price levels
**Historical Comparison:** historical correlation between gasoline and food prices

This chart from Azuria Capital shows a strong synergy between gasoline prices and the UN Food and Agriculture World Food Price Index. Historically, when gasoline prices rise, food and agricultural prices tend to follow. The current upward trend in gasoline prices suggests that food prices will likely increase, putting significant stress on the economy and potentially leading to hardship for many.

### 17. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** 20/50 cross, lower low
**Key Levels:** 6532.65 support, 6624.71 current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The SPX daily chart shows a 20/50 moving average cross, which is a significant bearish signal in technical analysis. The market has also fallen to a lower low, respecting key levels. The speaker notes that the overall stock market is now mostly in decline, a rare occurrence not seen in a long time, indicating broad weakness.

### 18. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** potential change of trend
**Key Levels:** 6532.65 support (weekly 50 MA), 6624.71 current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The SPX weekly chart highlights the critical support level at 6532.65, which coincides with the weekly 50-moving average. If the market breaks below this level, it would technically signal a 'change of trend' on a weekly timeframe, which is a very significant bearish development. The previous support levels are also marked.

### 19. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH (PRESSURE ON MARKET)
**Pattern:** options put walls
**Key Levels:** 6707.6 options high level, 6530.0 options low level, 6542.4 options low level today
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US500 daily chart shows updated options high and low levels. The market hit the low level of the previous session, indicating the significance of these dynamic support/resistance levels. The next session is sitting very close to the 6500 low, suggesting considerable pressure on the market. The speaker mentions 'put walls' at 6500 and 6600, indicating strong support/resistance from options activity.

### 20. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (various expirations (2026-03-20, 2026-03-22, 2026-03-27, 2026-04-17))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (VOLATILITY EXPECTED)
**Pattern:** quadruple witching options activity
**Key Levels:** 6500 strike price, 6600 strike price
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart from MenthorQ shows options flow for SPX across different expiration dates, highlighting quadruple witching. There are significant 'put walls' (high put open interest) at the 6500 and 6600 strike prices. If the market breaks below 6500, it could lead to a very dangerous and rapid sell-off due to cascading options expirations.

### 21. QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) (various expirations (2026-03-20, 2026-03-22, 2026-03-27, 2026-04-17))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (VOLATILITY EXPECTED)
**Pattern:** options put walls
**Key Levels:** 580 strike price, 575 strike price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The QQQ options flow chart shows similar patterns to SPX, with significant put walls around 580 and 575 strike prices. While not as clear as the S&P 500, these levels indicate areas of potential support or resistance due to options activity.

### 22. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (various expirations (2026-03-20, 2026-03-22, 2026-03-27, 2026-04-17))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (VOLATILITY EXPECTED)
**Pattern:** options put walls
**Key Levels:** 170 strike price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The NVDA options flow chart shows a key level around 170. The speaker notes that semiconductors are not being hit as hard as other markets, which is important given their role as the backbone of the US economy.

### 23. US02Y (US Government Bonds 2 Yr. Yield) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout
**Key Levels:** 3.635% support, 3.779% resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US 2-year yield chart shows a clear breakout to the upside, indicating a hawkish shift in market expectations following Jerome Powell's statements. This is a significant move for bond yields.

### 24. US10Y (US Government Bonds 10 Yr. Yield) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** approaching highs
**Key Levels:** 4.292% resistance, 4.265% current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US 10-year yield chart shows it getting back close to its previous highs around 4.292%. This, combined with the 2-year yield breakout, indicates broad upward pressure on bond yields.

### 25. AU01Y (Australia 1 Year Government Bonds Yield) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward trend
**Key Levels:** 4.546% resistance, 4.401% current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Australian 1-year yield chart shows a very strong upward trend, with yields spiking to new highs. The speaker notes that Australia has already seen two rate hikes this year, with another expected soon, contributing to the global bond market stress.

### 26. IEF/HYG (iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF / iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH (RISK COMING BACK)
**Pattern:** approaching resistance
**Key Levels:** 1.21 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

This ratio chart (IEF/HYG) is used to assess risk in the bond market. The speaker has inverted the chart to visually represent that if this ratio breaks to the upside (above 1.21), it signifies increasing risk in the market. This indicates that high-yield junk bonds are underperforming safer treasury bonds, a classic sign of risk aversion.

### 27. BAMLH0A0HYM2 (ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH (RISK IN MARKET)
**Pattern:** spiking to new highs
**Key Levels:** 3.22 resistance, 3.19 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread, which has spiked back to new highs. This is a critical indicator of risk in the bond market, as spiking spreads suggest increased perceived risk by investors. The speaker reiterates that whenever these spreads spike, it signals heightened risk.

### 28. VIX (Volatility S&P 500 Index) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (NORMAL VOLATILITY PATTERN)
**Pattern:** spike and secondary spike
**Key Levels:** 25.08 current price, 32.84 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The VIX chart shows a spike followed by a secondary spike, which the speaker notes is a normal phenomenon for volatility. While the VIX has risen, it's not necessarily an immediate bearish signal on its own, but rather an indicator of increased market uncertainty.

### 29. DXY (US Dollar Index Futures) (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Wyckoff-style base
**Key Levels:** 100.055 support, 100.250 resistance, 101.595 resistance, 103.300 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The DXY weekly chart shows a Wyckoff-style base forming, with the dollar looking potentially bullish. The speaker emphasizes that while many previously called cash 'trash' or the dollar 'dead', it is now showing strength, suggesting a flight to safety. A break above 100.250 or 101.595 would be significant.

### 30. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (TOUGH TO READ)
**Pattern:** hovering around 100
**Key Levels:** 100.00 resistance, 93.892 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The USOIL daily chart shows crude oil hovering around $100 a barrel. While there has been movement percentage-wise, the price is consolidating. The speaker notes that if oil breaks out, it could create a 'cascade or waterfall effect' in the markets.

### 31. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding above support
**Key Levels:** 377.34 support, 393.67 current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The SMH daily chart shows that semiconductors are still holding above the key support level of 377.34. This is encouraging, as semiconductors are considered the backbone of the US economy, and their resilience suggests underlying strength in this sector despite broader market weakness.

### 32. GOLD (Gold / XAUUSD) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (PATIENCE REQUIRED)
**Pattern:** no clear structure
**Key Levels:** 4600-4800 box of interest, 4837.89 current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The GOLD daily chart shows the price entering a 'box of interest' between 4600 and 4800. However, the speaker emphasizes that no clear structure has formed yet, and patience is key. While many expect gold to go up, the current volatility makes it a tough read.

### 33. SILVER (CFDs on Silver (US$ / OZ)) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (TOUGH TO READ)
**Pattern:** volatility
**Key Levels:** 72.6930 support, 76.0164 current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The SILVER daily chart shows significant volatility, making it tough to read. The speaker highlights a key support level around 72.6930. Similar to gold, the increased volatility makes it difficult to establish a clear directional bias.

### 34. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding above support
**Key Levels:** 169.57 support, 180.40 current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The NVDA weekly chart shows the stock still holding above the 170 support level. This reinforces the idea that semiconductors are showing resilience compared to other market segments.

### 35. HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (WATCHING KEY SUPPORT)
**Pattern:** holding better than US market
**Key Levels:** 24985 support, 25479 current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Hang Seng Index Futures chart shows that Chinese stocks, despite some recent selling, are holding up better overall than the US market. However, the speaker warns that if key levels like 24800 are broken, it could lead to a broader global sell-off.

### 36. IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF) (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** no clear technical support
**Key Levels:** 235.69 support, 246.02 current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The IWM weekly chart shows that the Russell 2000 has not yet found clear technical support. This indicates weakness in small-cap stocks, which are often more sensitive to economic conditions.

### 37. KOSPI (KOSPI Composite Index) (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH (POTENTIAL FOR CORRECTION)
**Pattern:** hyper-bubble, tech-driven
**Key Levels:** 5139.99 support, 5925.03 current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The KOSPI weekly chart shows a 'hyper-bubble' driven by tech and hardware. The speaker highlights the current high levels and suggests that this market is particularly vulnerable to corrections, explaining why semiconductors are holding up due to this tech-driven rally.

### 38. NAS100 (NASDAQ 100 Index Futures) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** approaching key support
**Key Levels:** 24004.9 first support, 24393.5 current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The NAS100 daily chart shows the index approaching a critical first support level at 24000. The speaker emphasizes that if this level is broken, along with the S&P 500's 6500 level, it could trigger structural bases and increased volatility, especially during a quadruple witching event.

### 39. ETHUSDT (Ethereum / Tether) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (WATCHING FOR STRUCTURE)
**Pattern:** hit mini resistance, dropped back to daily 20 MA
**Key Levels:** 2163.33 retail steal, 1896.36 support, 2202.07 current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The ETHUSDT daily chart shows Ethereum breaking to the upside, hitting a mini-resistance, and then dropping back to its daily 20-moving average. The speaker notes that this is where he would expect some structure to start forming, hopefully on smaller timeframes.

### 40. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / Tether) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (WATCHING FOR STRUCTURE)
**Pattern:** structure appearing
**Key Levels:** 65170.99 support, 70840.55 current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The BTCUSDT daily chart shows similar price action to Ethereum, with structure starting to appear. The speaker emphasizes that both Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing volatility, and it's crucial to watch for clear structural patterns to emerge.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a late-cycle regime, characterized by rising interest rates and stress on bond markets. This is exacerbated by a mid-term election year, which historically brings increased volatility and potential for significant market dips. The speaker also highlights a 'race for cash' as the US dollar strengthens, and a 'sell everything' market breadth, indicating broad-based selling pressure. The flow-through of commodity prices (Gold -> Copper -> Energy -> Agricultural) suggests potential inflationary pressures, particularly in food prices, which could further strain the economy.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch the SPX 6546.34 support level closely, as a break below could signal a significant change in trend.
- Be aware of the increased volatility this week due to quadruple witching, especially on Thursday and Friday.
- Monitor bond yields (US 2-year and 10-year) and high-yield spreads, as their continued rise indicates increasing market risk.
- Pay attention to the US dollar (DXY) for further bullish breakouts, as a 'race for cash' could intensify.
- Exercise patience with Gold and Silver, waiting for clear structural patterns to emerge before making trading decisions.
- Watch key support levels on the Nasdaq (24000) and SPX (6500) for potential structural bases or further sell-offs.

## All Instruments Mentioned
MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, AVGO, NVDA, GOOGL, META, JPM, V, BRK-B, LLY, JNJ, XOM, CVX, WMT, KO, PEP, PG, PM, MO, BTI, UL, NSRGY, HSBC, BAC, C, WFC, GS, MS, BLK, BX, USB, PNC, SCHW, SPG, PLD, AMT, EQIX, PSA, O, CCI, EXR, MAA, AVB, FR, SPX, HYG, US02Y, DXY, US10Y, IEF/HYG, BAMLH0A0HYM2, VIX, USOIL, SMH, GOLD, SILVER, NVDA, HSI1!, IWM, KOSPI, NAS100, ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT, AU01Y, QQQ

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-03-18 23:01:12*