# LIVE: US Stock Market Monday Open: **Date:** 2026-03-20 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VppC2J9Y4vU) ## Main Thesis The market is at a critical juncture, with many instruments showing signs of potential reversals or consolidations after significant moves, suggesting a cautious approach and readiness for either continued trends or sharp corrections. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. SPX (S&P 500) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH **Pattern:** ascending channel, potential double top **Key Levels:** 5100-5120 support, 5250 resistance, 5300 resistance Atkinson notes the SPX is at the top of an ascending channel, showing signs of exhaustion. He points out a potential double top forming around 5250-5300. He emphasizes the importance of the 5100-5120 support level, stating a break below this would signal a significant correction. He also mentions the 20-day moving average as a key support. ### 2. NDX (Nasdaq 100) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH **Pattern:** ascending channel, potential double top **Key Levels:** 17800 support, 18000 support, 18300 resistance, 18500 resistance Similar to SPX, NDX is at the top of its ascending channel, showing exhaustion. Atkinson highlights the 18300-18500 resistance zone and the 17800-18000 support. A break below 17800 would be a bearish signal. He notes the market is 'tired' and needs a pullback. ### 3. DXY (US Dollar Index) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** ascending channel, potential breakout **Key Levels:** 103.50 support, 104.00 support, 104.50 resistance, 105.00 resistance DXY has broken out of a short-term ascending channel and is testing resistance around 104.50-105.00. Atkinson suggests a move towards 105.00 is likely, which would be bearish for risk assets. He identifies 103.50 as a key support level. ### 4. EUR/USD (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** descending channel, potential breakdown **Key Levels:** 1.0800 support, 1.0850 resistance, 1.0900 resistance EUR/USD is at the bottom of a descending channel, testing key support around 1.0800. Atkinson expects a breakdown below this level, targeting 1.0700 or lower, driven by DXY strength. He notes the 1.0850-1.0900 as resistance. ### 5. Gold (XAU/USD) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH **Pattern:** ascending channel, potential consolidation **Key Levels:** 2150 support, 2180 support, 2200 resistance, 2250 resistance Gold has had a significant rally and is now consolidating. Atkinson sees 2150-2180 as strong support. He believes Gold could retest 2200 and potentially move higher, but a pullback to 2100 is also possible. He emphasizes the importance of holding 2150. ### 6. Silver (XAG/USD) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH **Pattern:** ascending channel, potential consolidation **Key Levels:** 24.50 support, 25.00 resistance, 25.50 resistance Silver is consolidating after a strong move, similar to Gold. Atkinson identifies 24.50 as key support and 25.00-25.50 as resistance. He expects Silver to follow Gold's lead, with potential for further upside if Gold breaks out. ### 7. Crude Oil (WTI) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** ascending channel, potential breakout **Key Levels:** 78 support, 80 support, 82 resistance, 83 resistance Crude Oil is at the top of an ascending channel, testing resistance around 82-83. Atkinson sees a potential breakout higher, targeting 85-88. He notes 80 as strong support and 78 as critical support. He believes the geopolitical situation supports higher oil prices. ### 8. US 10-Year Treasury Yield (TNX) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH (FOR YIELDS) **Pattern:** ascending channel, potential breakout **Key Levels:** 4.20% support, 4.30% resistance, 4.35% resistance The 10-year yield is at the top of an ascending channel, testing resistance around 4.30%-4.35%. Atkinson expects a breakout higher, which would be bearish for equities. He identifies 4.20% as key support. ### 9. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH **Pattern:** ascending channel, potential consolidation/pullback **Key Levels:** 65000 support, 68000 support, 70000 resistance, 72000 resistance Bitcoin is consolidating after a significant rally, showing signs of exhaustion. Atkinson points out the 68000-70000 resistance zone and the 65000 support. He expects a pullback to 60000 or even 58000 before a potential move higher. He notes the market is 'tired'. ### 10. Ethereum (ETH/USD) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH **Pattern:** ascending channel, potential consolidation/pullback **Key Levels:** 3500 support, 3600 support, 3800 resistance, 4000 resistance Ethereum is also consolidating after a strong rally. Atkinson identifies 3600-3500 as key support and 3800-4000 as resistance. He expects a pullback to 3200-3000 before a potential move higher, similar to Bitcoin. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis Atkinson discusses a potential shift in market dynamics where the 'everything rally' might be pausing or reversing. He highlights the strength in DXY and yields as bearish for risk assets (equities, crypto) and potentially supportive of commodities (Gold, Oil). He suggests a 'risk-off' sentiment might be emerging, leading to a rotation out of growth stocks. ## Key Calls & Predictions - Watch for a break below 5100-5120 on SPX for a significant correction. - Expect DXY to continue its ascent towards 105.00, putting pressure on EUR/USD and risk assets. - Anticipate a breakdown in EUR/USD below 1.0800. - Look for a potential breakout in Crude Oil above 83, targeting 85-88. - Be cautious with Bitcoin and Ethereum, expecting pullbacks to key support levels (60k for BTC, 3200 for ETH) before further upside. - Monitor 10-year yield for a breakout above 4.30%-4.35%, which would be bearish for equities. ## All Instruments Mentioned SPX, NDX, DXY, EUR/USD, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, US 10-Year Treasury Yield, Bitcoin, Ethereum --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-03-20 23:00:10*