# You Won't Believe What Wall Street Just Did...
**Date:** 2026-03-20  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_BnxF7fhpk)

## Main Thesis
The market is entering a critical period with extreme fear, potential for a negative gamma event in tech stocks, and significant options activity due to triple witching. While some markets show signs of accumulation, others, particularly those sensitive to credit spreads and oil prices, indicate potential weakness and a need for caution.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** mean reversion
**Key Levels:** 6606.48 resistance, 6510.77 support
**Historical Comparison:** See you later Alligator Strategy

The SPX is currently at a key support level, with a potential for a short-selling opportunity in private equities, as indicated by a 'See you later Alligator' pattern. This comes amidst announcements from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs introducing $1.8 trillion to a new market, potentially short-selling private equities.

### 2. US02Y (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** spike in yields
**Key Levels:** 3.959% resistance, 3.621% support

The 2-year US Treasury bond yield has seen big spikes over the last 24 hours, showing signs of concern in the bond market. This upward movement in yields often correlates with market fear.

### 3. Gold (XAUUSD) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** mean reversion
**Key Levels:** 4676.64 support, 2035.81 most traded zone

Gold has moved down to one of Wall Street's favorite levels, mean reversion, after significant moves in safe havens. This suggests a potential re-evaluation of risk in the market.

### 4. MAGS (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** potential waterfall
**Key Levels:** 59.55 support, 59.24 very important level

The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) is approaching a very important support level at 59.24. If this level is lost, it could trigger a negative gamma event and a potential waterfall in the markets, especially for big technology stocks.

### 5. Fear & Greed Index (None)

**Bias:** EXTREME FEAR
**Key Levels:** 17 extreme fear
**Historical Comparison:** 2025

The CNN Fear & Greed Index is currently at 17, indicating 'extreme fear'. While the index's reliability has been questioned in the past (especially in 2025), recent bond market concerns suggest it might be regaining relevance. Extreme fear often presents opportunities for 'greedy' investors, but current market conditions warrant caution.

### 6. S&P 500 / Daily Sentiment Index (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** standard correction
**Key Levels:** 33 sentiment index

The Daily Sentiment Index for the S&P 500 shows a significant drop to 33, indicating fear in the street. Historically, periods of extreme fear (when the index falls below certain levels) have often preceded market rallies, aligning with Warren Buffett's 'be greedy when others are fearful' quote. The S&P 500 is currently in a 'standard correction' entering technical support.

### 7. S&P 500 / AAII Bears (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** bears on the rise
**Key Levels:** 50% AAII Bears
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 forward performance since 1988

The AAII Bull/Bear Sentiment Report shows that 'bears' are above 50% for the first time in over 6 months. Historical data since 1988 indicates that when bears rise above 45-50%, the market's forward performance tends to be more bullish in the short to medium term (65-70% positive returns), but this time, the stats are more negative.

### 8. Goldman Sachs & JPMorgan Private Credit Market (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Key Levels:** $1.8 trillion private credit market
**Historical Comparison:** 2020 and 2021 private credit boom

Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are offering hedge funds ways to bet against the $1.8 trillion private credit market. This move opens up short-selling opportunities in a market that was previously booming in 2020-2021. This could indicate underlying concerns about the health of the private credit market.

### 9. S&P 500 / Moody's Baa Corp Bond Yield (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** bond market flinching
**Key Levels:** 0.6% average gain when bond yield momentum is above 0.5

When Moody's Baa Corp Bond Yield 26-Week Momentum is above 0.5 (red shading), the S&P 500 has historically shown poor gains (average 0.6%). This indicates that when the bond market starts 'flinching' and yields expand, it often leads to consolidation or re-adjustment periods for markets, favoring traders over investors due to increased volatility.

### 10. S&P 500 / High Yield Credit Spreads (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** increasing credit spreads
**Key Levels:** -8.62% annualized return during increasing credit spreads

Increasing credit spreads (red shading) have historically led to significantly worse annualized returns for the S&P 500 (-8.62%). While this only happens 42% of the time, it signals increased volatility and a market environment where stock selection and flexibility are crucial, benefiting traders more than investors.

### 11. Crude Oil Brent / US Recessions (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** oil price spikes
**Key Levels:** 50% deviation from trend (recession threshold), Oil Brent price = $104
**Historical Comparison:** previous oil spikes leading to recessions

A surge in energy prices, with Crude Oil Brent moving above the 50% deviation from trend, historically suggests a high probability of recession. While the 2022 spike didn't trigger a recession, current oil prices at $104 are creating extreme pressure on existing market issues, potentially leading to illiquidity and distress in private equities due to redemptions.

### 12. S&P 500 / Equity Put/Call Ratio (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** put wall
**Key Levels:** 0.9 ratio
**Historical Comparison:** pandemic period (2019-2020)

The Equity Put/Call Ratio has reached 0.9, indicating that investors are buying more puts, a sign of fear. This level has sometimes preceded relief rallies, but not always. It suggests a 'massive put wall' around the 6600-6500 area, which could act as support or trigger further declines if broken, similar to the period leading into the pandemic.

### 13. S&P 500 Performance During Major Global Oil Supply Disruptions (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** oil supply disruptions
**Key Levels:** 60-100 days after disruption often marks market bottom
**Historical Comparison:** Arab Oil Embargo, Iranian Revolution, Iraq Invades Kuwait, Russia-Ukraine War, Current US-Iran Conflict

Historical data from major global oil supply disruptions shows that the S&P 500 tends to bottom out around 60-100 trading days after the event begins. The current US-Iran conflict is ongoing, and the longer it persists, the higher the chance of further market pullbacks. Future crude prices (September, December, and next year) are expanding, suggesting expectations of prolonged disruption.

### 14. S&P 500 Performance During March Quadruple Witching Events (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** quadruple witching
**Key Levels:** 50/50 chance of positive/negative returns on event day
**Historical Comparison:** past March quadruple witching events since 2000

March Quadruple Witching events (or triple witching) historically show a coin-flippy style day for the S&P 500, with a 50/50 chance of positive or negative returns on the expiration day. However, large options activity at certain levels can provide support or resistance, making the current 6600 level particularly important.

### 15. Sector Trend Positioning (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** weakness in key sectors
**Key Levels:** Financials -6.8% vs 50D, -7.3% vs 200D, Consumer Discretionary -6.5% vs 50D, -4.7% vs 200D

Sector trend positioning shows that Financials and Consumer Discretionary sectors are significantly weak, trading far below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This is a canary in the coal mine, indicating that the market is pricing in future struggles for the American consumer and broader economic weakness 12-18 months out.

### 16. IAU (iShares Gold Trust) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** large dark pool activity
**Key Levels:** 86.26 current price, 83.00-84.00 previous support

IAU, a gold ETF, has seen large trades near its peak and subsequent drop to mean reversion. The largest trade ever for IAU occurred recently, followed by a significant drop. For gold to find support, large dark pool activity and clear market structure would need to emerge, reinforcing the 'patience, react, don't predict' mantra.

### 17. I/SO (iShares Core S&P U.S. Growth ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** monster trades at market peaks
**Key Levels:** 159.59 current price
**Historical Comparison:** trades before 2020 and 2022 crashes

Monster trades in the iShares Core S&P U.S. Growth ETF have historically occurred at market peaks, preceding corrections. Two such trades have recently occurred into the current sell-off, which is 'weird' and 'disturbing', suggesting potential further downside. This pattern was observed before the 2020 and 2022 crashes.

### 18. Bitcoin Cumulative Net Flows Drawdown from ATH (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** accumulation base
**Key Levels:** $2.1 billion net inflow since February 23

Bitcoin ETF flows have attracted $2.1 billion in net inflows since February 23, suggesting a potential 'accumulation base' is forming. This is happening while other markets are experiencing fear, indicating that some institutional players are buying into Bitcoin during times of concern, aligning with an 'abundance mindset'.

### 19. Bitcoin Rolling 30-Day Bitcoin ETF Flows (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive ETF flows
**Key Levels:** 7900 threshold for potential retail top
**Historical Comparison:** highest since October 2022

Rolling 30-day Bitcoin ETF flows have turned positive for the first time in a while, reaching their highest since October 2022. This indicates a potential accumulation phase, with large transactions forming a base. This is a very interesting time for Bitcoin, especially as other markets are showing signs of weakness.

### 20. SPX (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** volatility
**Key Levels:** 6606.48 resistance, 6532.65 support

When volatility strikes, it's important to go back to basics: US Dollar as a hedge and the S&P 500 as the most important chart. The SPX is currently at a critical support zone between 6606.48 and 6532.65, which includes the 50-week moving average. Options levels and the advanced decline line are also being closely watched.

### 21. US500 (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower highs and lower lows
**Key Levels:** 6688.4 options high level, 6530.0 options low level

On the 4-hour timeframe, the US500 is showing a series of lower highs and lower lows, indicating a negative trend. The market is finding resistance at the anchored VWAP from the current high to low. Options levels for the next 24 hours are around 6688.4 (high) and 6530.0 (low), with the latter being close to the 6500 support.

### 22. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** negative GEX
**Key Levels:** 6600-6500 put wall

The Net GEX for all SPX expirations shows a massive 'put wall' around the 6600-6500 strike prices. If the market drops below 6600-6500, it could trigger a 'waterfall' or 'negative gamma event', which would be bullish for bears and bearish for bulls, as key support levels and technical trends would be broken.

### 23. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (Next 24 hours) (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** triple witching
**Key Levels:** 6600 strike price

For the next 24 hours (triple witching), the 6600 strike price seems to be a critical level where market participants expect the market to hold. However, there's also significant activity around 6400-6500, suggesting that these levels could be tested. The focus remains on charts, flows, and movements, with large dark pools being a key indicator.

### 24. Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 600 strike price, 593 current price

For the Triple Qs (QQQ), the 600 strike price is a significant level, with the current price at 593. There's a lot of options activity around these levels, and the market is currently not in positive or extreme negative gamma, indicating a neutral stance for now. All markets, including German and Australian, seem to be at critical correlation levels.

### 25. Net GEX All Expirations for TSLA (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 380 put wall

Tesla (TSLA) is currently sitting on a 380 put wall, indicating significant options support at that level. The market is not in positive or extreme negative gamma, suggesting a neutral outlook for now. This level will be crucial to watch for potential price action.

### 26. Net GEX All Expirations for NVDA (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 170 support

Nvidia (NVDA) is still holding above the 170 level, which is considered a critical support. The market is not in positive or extreme negative gamma, indicating a neutral stance for now. This level will be important to monitor for any shifts in trend.

### 27. US10Y (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** failed breakout
**Key Levels:** 4.292% resistance, 4.500% previous high

The 10-year US Treasury bond yield tried to break to a new high above 4.3% but failed, indicating resistance. This is a key lead indicator for the market, and its inability to sustain higher levels suggests underlying weakness.

### 28. US02Y (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** spike and reversal
**Key Levels:** 3.921% resistance, 3.635% support

The 2-year US Treasury bond yield spiked all the way up to 3.9% in just one session before reversing. This 'crazy' spike and subsequent pullback is worrying as it affects bonds and puts strain on corporate bonds and high-yield junk. This could be a precursor to further market weakness.

### 29. LQD (iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downward trend
**Key Levels:** 108.97 current price

Corporate bonds (LQD) are showing signs of strain, with a downward trend. This is a direct consequence of the spike in bond yields, indicating that the financial system is under pressure. This chart is being closely tracked as a key indicator of market health.

### 30. HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** lower lows and reversal
**Key Levels:** 79.66 current price, 76.69 previous low

High-yield junk bonds (HYG) were making lower lows but ended the day positive, showing a slight reversal. While this is not a definitive bullish signal, it indicates some buying interest. However, the overall trend in bonds remains a concern, and we continue to track it closely.

### 31. BAMLH0A0HYM2 (ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** expanding credit spreads
**Key Levels:** 3.2 resistance, 3.19 current spread

Credit spreads are starting to expand again, which is a bit of a worry. Historically, higher credit spreads do not present great returns for the market. While bonds have already broken down, the broader market has not yet, making this a critical indicator to watch for potential future market movements.

### 32. MAGS (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 59.55 current price, 57.00 support, 42.22 previous low, 38.88 previous low

The Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) continues to show a series of lower lows and lower highs on the weekly chart. It has hit the anchored VWAP of the previous move, and the weekly 50-period moving average, which are critical levels. If these levels break, it could lead to further significant declines. The market is 37% tech, so weakness in these big stocks is a major issue.

### 33. MAGS (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 62.99 resistance, 59.56 current price

On the 4-hour timeframe, MAGS is making lower lows and lower highs. There are massive rejections around the 62.99 level, indicating strong resistance and potential stop-losses placed by traders. This level could signal a change of trend if broken, but for now, the smaller timeframes remain negative.

### 34. DXY (US Dollar Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** wyckoff bottom (potential)
**Key Levels:** 100.250 resistance, 99.585 support, 103.300 previous high

The US Dollar Index (DXY) did not break above 100.300 despite rising yields, indicating a struggle for the dollar. This chart is showing a potential Wyckoff bottom pattern, which is a critical level to watch. The government's actions to relieve financial system stresses are also influencing the dollar's movement.

### 35. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil WTI) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 93.022 current price, 105.523 previous high

US Oil (WTI) is not showing much to note on the daily chart, but it is being closely watched as a top-tier indicator. The current price is around 93.022, with a previous high of 105.523. The focus is on future oil contracts rather than the current spot price.

### 36. CLG2027 (Crude Oil Futures Feb 2027) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs
**Key Levels:** 75.10 current price, 72.70 support

Future oil contracts (CLG2027) have made higher highs, suggesting that the market believes there will be longer-lasting ramifications from current events. This indicates that risk continues to be present in these markets, as higher future oil prices can impact inflation and economic growth.

### 37. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** sell-off and buy-back
**Key Levels:** 377.34 support

Semiconductors (SMH) experienced a sell-off but managed to buy back by the end of the session, holding above the critical 377.34 technical support level. This level is crucial to watch, as a break below it could signal further weakness in the tech sector.

### 38. Silver (CFDs on Silver USD/OZ) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** extreme volatility
**Key Levels:** 73.9445 current price, 72.6930 support
**Historical Comparison:** Nautilus chart (previous volatility events)

Silver fell heavily over the last 24 hours but is barely holding onto a critical close level around 73.9445, which has historically acted as support. When extreme volatility enters the market, as seen in the 'Nautilus chart' shared previously, it often leads to sideways movement as the market readjusts. This is a critical level for silver.

### 39. Gold (XAUUSD) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** mean reversion
**Key Levels:** 4689.72 current price, 4291.25 previous support, 2035.81 most traded zone

Gold has fallen back to a critical level around its 20-week moving average, which has historically been a strong area for finding buyers. While gold is seen as a better hedge, it's too early to tell if this structure will hold. It's at one of Wall Street's critical levels, and the news surrounding it is also impacting its price.

### 40. Gold (XAUUSD) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** sell-off
**Key Levels:** 4688.48 current price, 4613.66 support

On the 4-hour timeframe, gold has fallen off significantly and is currently at a critical level around 4688.48. It has a lot of news surrounding it, contributing to its volatility. It's too early to tell if the current structure will hold, but it's a key level that Wall Street is watching.

### 41. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 178.56 current price, 169.57 support

Nvidia (NVDA) is currently trading at 178.56, with a critical support level at 169.57. A break below this level would be a key indicator of further weakness. The daily updates on Nvidia are important, but for now, it's holding above this critical zone.

### 42. HSI (Hang Seng Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 25,367 current price, 24,985 support

Chinese markets, represented by the Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI), are still holding their support around 24,985. This is a critical level, and we are closely watching to see if these markets can maintain their current positions amidst global correlations.

### 43. KOSPI (KOSPI Composite Index) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** extreme volatility
**Key Levels:** 5789.52 current price, 5333.27 support

The South Korean market (KOSPI) has seen extreme volatility, rising over 100% in 12 months before a recent pullback. This is a very concerning market in my opinion, as such rapid gains often lead to sharp corrections. Volatility has set in, and it's a critical level to watch.

### 44. XJO (S&P/ASX 200 Index) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 8473.1 current price, 8198.0 support

The Australian market (XJO) is currently on technical support around 8198.0. This is a key level to watch, as global markets are highly correlated. The ability of the Australian market to hold this support will be an important indicator for broader market stability.

### 45. GER40 (German 40 Index) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** wyckoff distribution (potential)
**Key Levels:** 23,028.8 current price, 22,759.3 support

The German market (GER40) is also on technical support areas. However, it's showing a potential Wyckoff distribution pattern, which could lead to further downside if the support breaks. This is a critical level, and a break could lead to a significant fall, potentially taking it back to 22,000, similar to previous oil crises.

### 46. NDX (NASDAQ 100 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** double top (potential)
**Key Levels:** 24,415.6 current price, 24,004.9 first support, 21,867.1 previous peaks
**Historical Comparison:** previous oil crises

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is at a major level around 24,000. If it breaks below this, many people will see it as a double top pattern, which could lead to a 15% correction, taking it back to 22,000 (previous peaks in 2025). This would be similar to the percentage corrections seen during previous oil crises, making it a critical cross-correlation to watch.

### 47. ETH/USDT (1-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding anchored VWAP
**Key Levels:** 2163.33 current price, 2134.21 retail steal, 1896.35 support

Ethereum (ETH/USDT) is holding the anchored VWAP from its last move before breaking out, which is encouraging. The current price is around 2163.33, with a 'retail steal' zone around 2134.21. It's too early to tell if this will lead to a sustained rally, but it's a positive sign amidst broader market concerns.

### 48. BTC/USDT (1-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding support
**Key Levels:** 70,288.80 current price, 65,170.99 support

Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) is holding around its current support zone of 70,288.80. While it's too early to make definitive calls, the fact that it's holding these levels during a period of triple witching and weekly close is significant. The potential for a small bid is being watched, but the overall market context is crucial.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a late-cycle phase, characterized by extreme fear in some indices, expanding credit spreads, and rising future oil prices. This environment suggests increased volatility and a shift towards 'stock selection' and 'flexibility' for traders, while investors need to be cautious. Intermarket correlations, particularly with bonds and oil, indicate potential for further market re-adjustment and weakness, despite some signs of accumulation in beaten-down assets like Bitcoin.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Be patient, react, don't predict.
- Watch for a potential negative gamma event and waterfall in tech stocks if key support levels are lost.
- Pay attention to expanding credit spreads as they historically lead to poor market returns.
- Monitor future oil contracts for longer-lasting ramifications of global supply disruptions.
- Focus on market structure and flows, not just opinions.
- Consider the 'abundance mindset' and look for opportunities in beaten-down markets during times of concern.
- Track key support levels for SPX (6600-6500), MAGS (59.24), SMH (377.34), Silver (72.6930), Gold (20-week MA), and NDX (24,000).

## All Instruments Mentioned
SPX, US02Y, Gold, MAGS, US10Y, LQD, HYG, BAMLH0A0HYM2, USOIL, CLG2027, SMH, Silver, NVDA, HSI, KOSPI, XJO, GER40, NDX, ETH/USDT, BTC/USDT, IAU, I/SO, QQQ, TSLA

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-03-20 23:02:23*