# Markets Are About To Face The Ultimate TEST…
**Date:** 2026-03-24  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_xEVuftIkyE)

## Main Thesis
The markets are at a critical juncture, showing signs of potential reversal and increased volatility due to dark pool activity, geopolitical conflicts, and inflation concerns. While some markets have seen a rebound, key technical levels and historical comparisons suggest caution, with a potential for further downside or a 'dead cat bounce' before a true recovery.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** potential topping pattern, testing trendlines
**Key Levels:** 6578.15 support, 6580.99 current price

The SPX daily chart shows a potential topping pattern with prices testing key trendlines. Massive dark pool activity (DPA) from Wall Street is noted, correlating with a 'Truth Social post' and significant movements up to resistance and supply areas. The market is currently hovering around 6580.99, with a key support at 6578.15. The speaker questions if this is a recovery or a 'dead cat bounce'.

### 2. MOVE (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** signs of distress, rising volatility
**Key Levels:** 98.1476 current price, 108.7047 high

The MOVE index, representing bond market option volatility, continues to show signs of distress with a sharp increase in volatility. The current price is 98.1476, with a recent high around 108.7047. This indicates increased uncertainty and risk in the bond market.

### 3. USOIL (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound, potential dead cat bounce
**Key Levels:** 100.194 resistance, 92.508 support, 88.702 current price

The USOIL chart shows prices moving within a range, with resistance at 100.194 and support at 92.508. The current price is 88.702, suggesting a potential 'dead cat bounce' after a recent drop. The speaker emphasizes the need to analyze stocks, commodities, and cryptos to understand market correlations.

### 4. Major U.S.-Listed Country ETFs Performance Since the U.S. – Iran Conflict (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** risk-off environment, technical bear markets

This bar chart illustrates the performance of various country ETFs since the U.S.-Iran conflict. Most countries are showing negative performance, with some, like South Africa, entering 'technical bear markets' (down 20% from peak). The U.S. market, while down, is not as severely impacted, suggesting money flows back to the major currency pair (USD) during risk-off periods.

### 5. VOO - Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** distribution, compressed state

The VOO ETF chart, showing dark pool activity, indicates 'monstrous activity' in a 'very compressed state' since the Federal Reserve's rate cut last year. This suggests significant distribution, potentially signaling a shift in market sentiment. The speaker questions if this is a sign of the times.

### 6. IJSG - iShares Core S&P U.S. Growth ETF (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound, potential topping zones
**Key Levels:** 159.59 current price

The IJSG ETF chart highlights key potential resistance or topping zones. The ETF saw massive activity, being the number one largest trade a few weeks ago, but has since remained in a range-bound market. The speaker notes that the market almost broke to the downside but was 'barely saved' by the Truth Social post, indicating fragile structures.

### 7. SPYM - SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation, significant options activity
**Key Levels:** 6600 (SPX equivalent) put options

The SPYM ETF chart shows significant dark pool activity, particularly around the 6600 level (SPX equivalent), which has a lot of put options. The second, sixth, and seventeenth largest trades were clustered around this zone as markets rallied back to resistance. The speaker highlights the importance of this level and questions if a breach to the upside (higher high, trendline break) would signal a bullish move.

### 8. NASDAQ Composite (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rare weakness at market highs
**Historical Comparison:** previous periods of NASDAQ weakness (1980s, 2000, 2008)

This chart shows the NASDAQ Composite's performance when it's been down at least 9 of the past 10 weeks. It's rare to see big tech failing while at a high. Historically, such periods usually occurred after the market had already sold off, with an average max drawdown of around 20%. The current situation is unique because it's happening near the peak, suggesting potential for significant downside if resistance isn't breached.

### 9. S&P 500: Number of Intraday Reversals Since 2005 (rolling 50 trading days)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** increased intraday volatility
**Key Levels:** 24 reversals (red dashed line)
**Historical Comparison:** 2022 bear market, 2008 financial crisis

This chart shows the rolling number of intraday reversals over the past 50 trading days for the S&P 500. The market has seen 24 sessions that flipped positive to negative or vice versa, indicating high intraday volatility. Similar levels of reversals were seen during the 2022 bear market and ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, suggesting panic is starting to enter the markets.

### 10. S&P 500: Valuation vs Profitability (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** divergence from trendline, overvalued
**Historical Comparison:** 2005-2009, 2010-2014, 2015-2019, 2020-2024

This scatter plot shows the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio against its forward profit margin, colored by time periods. The current period (2025-Present) shows a divergence from the long-term trendline, indicating that the market is potentially overvalued. The speaker notes that the market is 'coming more back down' towards an 18 or 17 times earnings ratio, suggesting a potential correction.

### 11. Financial Sector ETF $XLF: First Bullish MACD Crossover in 1 Month (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** MACD crossover, potential stabilization
**Historical Comparison:** XLF forward performance since 1999

This chart shows the XLF ETF with a MACD crossover, indicating a potential bullish signal for the financial sector. While the MACD histogram shows some improvement, the speaker cautions that it's 'too early to say' if this signifies a sustained recovery. The table below shows historical performance after such crossovers, with mixed results.

### 12. S&P 500 Performance During Major Global Oil Supply Disruptions (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** historical market reactions to oil shocks
**Historical Comparison:** Arab Oil Embargo (1973), Iranian Revolution (1979), Iraq Invades Kuwait (1990), Russia-Ukraine War (2022)

This chart compares S&P 500 performance during various global oil supply disruptions. Historically, these events have led to prolonged periods of market weakness or technical bear markets, with straight rebounds being uncommon. The current U.S.-Iran conflict is shown, and the speaker suggests that the market's reaction so far is consistent with past patterns of initial weakness before a decision is made on whether it will worsen or improve.

### 13. US CPI YoY%: The Two Waves (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** stagflationary comparison
**Historical Comparison:** 1966-1982 stagflation period

This chart overlays the current CPI YoY% with the 1966-1982 stagflation period. The speaker notes the 'uncanny' similarity, suggesting that inflation is 'back in'. Many are drawing parallels to the 1970s stagflation, but the speaker also raises the possibility of deflation, implying a complex and uncertain economic outlook.

### 14. Real Oil Price, % deviation from trend + US recessions (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** oil spikes preceding recessions
**Key Levels:** Oil Brent price > $104 (recession threshold)
**Historical Comparison:** 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s oil spikes

This chart shows real oil price deviation from trend and US recessions. Historically, significant oil price spikes (above the 50% deviation threshold, or Brent price > $104) have often preceded or coincided with recessions. The current spike in oil prices, coupled with rising costs of living, suggests a high probability of recession. The speaker notes that energy prices impacting inflation is a major concern.

### 15. Gasoline Prices (Front Month Future Contracts) vs UN Food and Agriculture World Food Price Index (None)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** energy leads, food follows

This chart illustrates the correlation between gasoline prices and the UN World Food Price Index, showing that 'energy leads, food often follows'. The speaker highlights the recent increase in gasoline prices, which will likely lead to higher food costs and impact demand, potentially causing 'demand destruction'. This reinforces concerns about inflation and its broader economic impact.

### 16. NASDAQ Daily Sentiment Index (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** maximum fear, potential reversal
**Key Levels:** 25 (maximum fear threshold)

This chart shows the NASDAQ's daily sentiment index, which has recently dipped to 'maximum fear' levels (below 25). Historically, such extreme fear can precede market reversals. The speaker emphasizes the importance of looking at charts during periods of maximum fear, as sentiment can be a contrarian indicator.

### 17. SPX (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** retesting resistance, potential mean reversion
**Key Levels:** 20-week moving average (mean reversion), 50-week moving average (support)

The SPX weekly chart shows the market retesting the 20-week moving average (mean reversion) from below, which is acting as resistance. The speaker notes that when prices close below the 20-week MA, they often retest it from the bottom up and find resistance. The market is currently finding support around the 50-week moving average. The 'Truth Social post' is mentioned as a factor in the recent rally.

### 18. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rally to resistance, potential false breakout
**Key Levels:** 200-day moving average (dynamic resistance), 6580.99 current price, 6532.65 support, 6503.28 support
**Historical Comparison:** Paul Tudor Jones' quote about 200-day MA

The SPX daily chart shows the market rallying to the 200-day moving average (green line), which is acting as dynamic resistance. The speaker references Paul Tudor Jones' quote about 'nothing good happens underneath the 200-day moving average'. The market rallied over the last 24 hours to this level and found resistance. The speaker notes that a break above the 200-day MA would be a positive sign, potentially trapping shorts and leading to a squeeze, but this has not happened yet. Volume is massive, especially on Friday (second largest ever in terms of OpEx).

### 19. US500 (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs, testing trendline
**Key Levels:** 6672.3 (options high level), 6513.2 (options low level)

The US500 4-hour chart shows a series of lower lows and lower highs, indicating a downtrend. The market rallied up and made a slightly higher high, breaking through a previous lower high, and has come back up to an important trendline. The speaker notes that a lot of activity is coming through, and for a significant trend change, the market would need to break the trendline and make a higher high. The speaker also notes that buying the dip often leads to further dipping, suggesting it's better to wait for a 'V-shape' recovery with momentum.

### 20. QQQ (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gaps left behind, hovering around weekly 50 MA
**Key Levels:** 588.00 (post-market price), 581.12 (gap left behind)

The QQQ weekly chart shows 'gaps left behind' and the market sitting around the weekly 50-period moving average. The current post-market price is 589.77, with a gap left behind at 581.12. The speaker suggests that the market may try to hold this level, but it's too early to tell the exact direction.

### 21. QQQ (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gaps left behind
**Key Levels:** 588.00 (post-market price), 581.12 (gap left behind)

The QQQ daily chart also shows 'gaps left behind' at 581.12, with the current post-market price at 589.77. This reinforces the idea of potential support or resistance around these levels.

### 22. NAS100 (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** false breakout, short squeeze
**Key Levels:** 24004.9 (first support), 24253.6 current price

The NAS100 daily chart shows the market regaining past 24,000. Many people tried to short underneath this zone, thinking it was a technical breakout, but the market closed right on support, went lower on Monday, and then rallied back up. This suggests a potential 'false breakout' that could trap shorts and lead to a squeeze. However, on higher timeframes, it's still showing lower lows and lower highs.

### 23. US2000 (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** all markets returning to resistance
**Key Levels:** 2438.6 (first major target), 2290.7 (first major target)

The US2000 4-hour chart, along with other markets, shows prices returning to resistance levels. The speaker notes that this also happened on Bitcoin, suggesting a broader market theme of retesting resistance after a fall.

### 24. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** put walls, options clustering
**Key Levels:** 6500 (put support), 7100 (call resistance), 6587 (spot price)

This options chart for SPX shows significant put support around the 6500 level, which is the number one expiration moving forward. There's also clustering around 6600 and 6400, forming a 200-point range. This explains why the 6500 level found some pressure, not just from the 'Truth Social post' but also from overall market flow.

### 25. Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** options clustering
**Key Levels:** 590 (put support), 610 (call resistance), 588 (spot price)

This options chart for QQQ shows similar options clustering around 590 (put support) and 600-610 (call resistance). The spot price is 588. The speaker notes that markets gravitate towards these key put levels, and the current situation is a '5-day cease' at this point, but the market will take any opportunity to push around these options levels.

### 26. Net GEX All Expirations for NVDA (None)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding put support
**Key Levels:** 170 (put support), 180 (call resistance), 175.64 (spot price)

This options chart for NVDA shows the stock 'holding on to 170', which is an important put support zone. The spot price is 175.64, with call resistance at 180. This indicates that despite recent market volatility, NVDA is finding some stability around this key options level.

### 27. Net GEX All Expirations for BTC (None)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive gamma squeeze potential
**Key Levels:** 40 (put support), 45 (call resistance), 40.65 (spot price)

This options chart for Bitcoin shows more flow towards the upside, with a 'structural basing pattern'. The 40-mark is an important level, with a lot of calls moving through 40 to 42, which could create a 'positive gamma squeeze' style event. This suggests a potential bullish outlook for Bitcoin compared to other assets.

### 28. LQD - iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** slight recovery, still shaky
**Key Levels:** 108.56 (post-market price)

The LQD weekly chart shows a 'slight recovery' in bonds over the last 24 hours, with the post-market price at 108.56. However, the speaker notes that the bond market is 'still shaky' and has not been 'crushed yet'. Significant volume has gone through these major bonds, and the speaker emphasizes the need to pay attention when the bond market falters.

### 29. BAMLA0A0HYM2 - ICE BofAML U.S. High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** bond spreads not dropping
**Key Levels:** 3.24 resistance, 3.19 support

This chart shows bond spreads, which 'haven't exactly dropped yet'. The speaker notes that this is a slightly delayed chart, but generally, when the MOVE index goes up, a big 'crush point' on the MOVE index is needed to show that the S&P 500 has found some technical base. At this point, it's just the beginning of that.

### 30. VIX (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** high volatility, above 25
**Key Levels:** 26.16 current price, 20 support, 25 resistance

The VIX daily chart shows continued high volatility. The index went down to 20 but then rallied back above 25 as more information came out. The current price is 26.16, indicating that the VIX is 'still quite volatile' and reflecting ongoing market uncertainty.

### 31. GER40 (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** sold off support, recovery
**Key Levels:** 23042.3 current price, 22776.1 support

The GER40 weekly chart shows that German markets 'still look pretty bad'. They recovered back after being sold off the level of support at 22776.1, but the overall trend remains concerning. This is consistent with other markets finding similar problems.

### 32. KOSPI (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** extreme rally, recent volatility
**Key Levels:** 5405.75 current price, 6000 resistance

The KOSPI weekly chart for the South Korean market shows an 'absolutely crazy' rally, up over 180% in 12 months. However, it has recently shown volatility, rallied, and then continued to sell off. The market closed at 5405.75 at the time of recording, but it has been 'pretty negative', suggesting a potential reversal after such an extreme run.

### 33. DXY (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** failed breakout, consolidation
**Key Levels:** 100.250 resistance, 99.585 support

The DXY daily chart shows that the dollar did not break through 100.30, suggesting that 'total fear' is not yet present. The market is consolidating around 100.250 resistance and 99.585 support. This chart is considered 'very important' to continue following.

### 34. GOLD (XAUUSD) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** recovery off demand, holding 50 MA
**Key Levels:** 4204.60 (most traded area), 4425.39 current price

The GOLD weekly chart shows that gold managed to recover off a demand zone on the left-hand side, which is also the 'most traded area' around 4204.60. The current price is 4425.39. This area also coincides with the 50-period moving average, indicating strong demand structure. However, the speaker notes that the 20-period moving average on the 2-hour chart has been holding gold back.

### 35. GOLD (XAUUSD) (2-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** resistance from 20 MA, potential breakout
**Key Levels:** 20-period moving average (resistance), 4204.60 (most traded area)

The GOLD 2-hour chart shows that the 20-period moving average has 'continued to hold gold back', acting as resistance. The market just hit it again, showing a bit of pressure. A break through this resistance and a higher high could be a 'supporting force' for gold. Both gold and silver have been coming down extremely fast, and the speaker is looking for structure to stop the downtrend.

### 36. SILVER (XAGUSD) (2-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** hovering around resistance
**Key Levels:** 72.6930 resistance, 69.5705 current price

The SILVER 2-hour chart shows the market hovering around the 72.6930 resistance zone. Similar to gold, the speaker is looking for structure to stop the downtrend and potentially reverse. The current price is 69.5705.

### 37. CLG2027 (Crude Oil Futures Feb 2027) (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** fall from peak, market pricing in resolution
**Key Levels:** 72.20 current price, 78.00 high

The CLG2027 Crude Oil Futures chart shows that it's not just the spot oil price but also the future oil price that matters. The market did fall down from a peak of 78.00 to 72.20, indicating that the market is pricing in a 'resolution' to the geopolitical conflict, with oil being $6 cheaper a barrel in February. This is what the market believes, even if individual opinions differ.

### 38. SMH - VanEck Semiconductor ETF (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding support
**Key Levels:** 377.34 support, 392.45 current price

The SMH weekly chart shows that semiconductors, the 'backbone of the US market', continue to hold the support level at 377.34. The current price is 392.45. This indicates some resilience in this key sector.

### 39. NVDA - NVIDIA Corporation (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding support
**Key Levels:** 170 support, 175.64 current price

The NVDA weekly chart shows the stock 'holding on to 170', which is an important support zone. The current price is 175.64. This is consistent with the options data showing put support around this level.

### 40. HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** dropped support, recovered
**Key Levels:** 25020 current price, 22636 resistance level

The HSI1! weekly chart for Chinese markets shows that although they dropped the key 25,000 level, they 'just managed to recover back'. The current price is 25020. However, from a technical perspective, there's a low, lower high, and lower low, and a higher high is needed (above 26,000) to signal a change in trend. The market is still around this key level.

### 41. ETHUSDT (2-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation around heavily traded zone
**Key Levels:** 2147.30 current price, 1896.35 retail steal, 1831.07 retail steal

The ETHUSDT 2-hour chart shows the Ethereum market 'doing okay' but consolidating around a 'very critical level' which is a heavily traded zone. The current price is 2147.30. Similar to Bitcoin, the market is finding support in this area.

### 42. BTCUSDT (2-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** instant rally to resistance, struggling
**Key Levels:** 70772.66 current price, 65170.99 support

The BTCUSDT 2-hour chart shows that Bitcoin 'instantly rallied to a bunch of resistance' off the 'Truth Social post'. The current price is 70772.66, and the market is 'still struggling around that area'. A break above this resistance would be a good sign for the bulls, potentially leading to a bid from Wall Street. However, if it fails to hold and makes a lower low, it would be 'pretty bad', as it would signify a breakdown across multiple markets (NASDAQ, HSI, S&P) and potentially impact bonds and the MOVE index.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The video discusses a 'risk-off' environment globally, with money flowing back to the US dollar. It draws parallels between current inflation and the 1970s stagflation period, noting the 'uncanny' resemblance in CPI YoY% charts. The speaker also highlights the historical correlation between oil price spikes and recessions, suggesting a high probability of recession. The concept of 'technical bear markets' (20% drawdown) is mentioned for some country ETFs. The overall sentiment is one of increased volatility and uncertainty, with markets at a critical juncture where key technical levels and options flows will determine future direction.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch for a breach of trendlines and higher highs on the S&P 500 for a bullish signal.
- Monitor the 200-day moving average on the SPX as a critical resistance level.
- Observe the MOVE index for a 'big crush point' to confirm a technical base for the S&P 500.
- Pay attention to earnings season for increased volatility and potential profit opportunities.
- Look for structure in gold and silver to indicate a stop to their downtrends.
- Monitor oil futures for signs of resolution in geopolitical conflicts, as the market is already pricing in cheaper oil.
- Watch for a break above resistance on Bitcoin (around 72,000) for a bullish bid from Wall Street, or a lower low for a significant market breakdown.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SPX, MOVE, USOIL, VOO, IJSG, SPYM, NASDAQ Composite, S&P 500, XLF, US CPI YoY%, Real Oil Price, Gasoline Prices, UN Food and Agriculture World Food Price Index, NASDAQ Daily Sentiment Index, QQQ, NAS100, US2000, Net GEX All Expirations for SPX, Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ, Net GEX All Expirations for NVDA, Net GEX All Expirations for BTC, LQD, BAMLA0A0HYM2, VIX, GER40, KOSPI, DXY, GOLD (XAUUSD), SILVER (XAGUSD), CLG2027, SMH, NVDA, HSI1!, ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-03-23 23:02:13*