# Wall Street Is Doing Something Here…
**Date:** 2026-03-25  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDifPyLbh4o)

## Main Thesis
Wall Street is showing signs of distribution in key tech stocks and ETFs, with unusual dark pool activity and historical data suggesting potential market weakness, especially in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while commodities like gold and oil are also showing interesting patterns amid global supply disruptions and inflation concerns.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SNDK (Sandisk Corporation) (2h)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** cluster of massive transactions near highs, potential technical distribution
**Key Levels:** 772.10 resistance, 706.70 resistance, 670.70 resistance, 621.10 support, 570.50 support, 530.50 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Five massive transactions happened close to the highs on SNDK, a stock important for data centers and AI hype. This follows a huge rally in memory hard drives and data centers late last year. The cluster of transactions near the peak high raises the question of technical distribution and potential weakness, possibly signaling the end of the current hardware phase related to AI hype.

### 2. Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** dark pool movements around current price, second largest transaction on VOO
**Key Levels:** 630.00 resistance, 625.00 resistance, 620.00 support, 610.00 support, 600.00 support, 6600 zone
**Historical Comparison:** last time a massive dark pool transaction (number 1) occurred, the market bottomed out and rallied

More activity, specifically dark pool movements, around the current price of VOO. The second largest dark pool transaction on VOO has been observed. The last time a similar massive transaction occurred, the market bottomed out and found a rally. The 6600 zone is noted as having a lot of options activity.

### 3. SPYM - SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** large transactions around the same zone
**Key Levels:** 581.00 resistance, 580.00 resistance, 577.70 support, 575.00 support, 570.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Large transactions are coming in around the same zone for SPYM, another large S&P 500 ETF. This indicates significant activity at these price levels.

### 4. IUSG - iShares Core S&P U.S. Growth ETF (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** massive transactions at highs
**Key Levels:** 160.00 resistance, 150.00 support, 140.00 support, 130.00 support, 120.00 support, 80.00 support, 60.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

IUSG, a growth fund, is also experiencing massive transactions at its highs. This was previously discussed in the last video and a few days ago.

### 5. GLD (Gold ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM)
**Pattern:** 9 straight days down
**Key Levels:** 200-day moving average
**Historical Comparison:** GLD after 9 days down in a row (July 2015, October 2016, October 2022, March 2020)

Gold has been down for 9 straight days, hitting the 200-day moving average. Historically, after 9 consecutive down days, GLD has shown positive returns one month later in all limited data sets (July 2015, October 2016, October 2022, March 2020). The next 60-100 days are crucial for gold's reaction.

### 6. NASDAQ Composite (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (3 MONTHS LATER)
**Pattern:** significant dip
**Key Levels:** 9 weeks down in last 10 weeks
**Historical Comparison:** similar historical periods of 9 weeks down in 10 weeks

The NASDAQ Composite has been down at least 9 of the past 10 weeks. Historically, this pattern has led to a fairly wild dip, but the data suggests a bullish outcome three months later. This was discussed in a previous video.

### 7. S&P 500 (yearly)

**Bias:** BEARISH (SHORT-TERM), NEUTRAL (LONG-TERM)
**Pattern:** distance above log-linear trend line
**Key Levels:** log-linear trend line, 20% overbought/oversold
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 performance during the 4th year of a bull market since 1950

The S&P 500 is currently 28.3% above its log-linear trend line, which is the second highest deviation ever, only surpassed during the dot-com boom. Historically, the 4th year of a bull market (which 2026 is) tends to be weaker, with pullbacks at the beginning of the year, followed by rallies into the middle, and sometimes bad outcomes around midterm elections. The median gain in the 4th year is 14%.

### 8. S&P 500 (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** doji candlestick on support
**Key Levels:** 6545.80 support, 6556.36 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The S&P 500 formed a doji candlestick in the last 24 hours, closing right on support at 6545.80. This indicates indecision in the market at a critical level.

### 9. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downward trend line, potential inverse head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 6750 resistance, 6700 resistance, 6500 support, downward trend line
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US500 is finding weakness but hasn't broken through the critical downward trend line or the 6750 resistance level. If it breaks above 6750, it could signal a bullish reversal, potentially forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern. The most traded zone on the way down is also around 6750-6770.

### 10. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (all expirations)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** put wall moving down
**Key Levels:** 6600 HVL, 7100 call resistance, 6500 put support, 6560 spot price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The put wall for SPX options has moved down to around 6500, with significant puts from 6500 down to 6400. If the market keeps moving down and breaks through this, it could lead to a 'waterfall effect' and catastrophic declines. The call resistance is at 7100, and the spot price is 6560.

### 11. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (next few days/weeks)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** put walls at key levels
**Key Levels:** 6600 puts, 6500 puts
**Historical Comparison:** null

For the next couple of days, put walls are sitting around 6600 and 6500. This 100-point range is where bulls will try to structure up the market if they are to do so.

### 12. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding key support
**Key Levels:** 24000 support, 24400 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The NASDAQ's main important level is around 24000, which has acted as a technical support in the past. The market has managed to hold this level, even with the close on Friday and the open and rally on Monday. It hasn't broken and closed below it.

### 13. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** supply hit and sold off
**Key Levels:** 24000 support, 24400 supply
**Historical Comparison:** null

The supply at 24400 was hit during Monday's True Social post and then sold back off, indicating that the market hasn't gained enough confidence to break above this level.

### 14. HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** falling off
**Key Levels:** 79.17 current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

Junk bonds are falling off, which is a worrying sign. This is attributed to a mixture of inflation concerns, potential interest rate hikes, and people pricing in risk, as seen in credit default swaps.

### 15. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** pressure to the 170 side
**Key Levels:** 170 support, 190.94 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

NVIDIA is seeing pressure being put to the 170 side. Despite amazing profits and being the biggest company in the world, the stock is facing downward pressure. Credit default swaps for NVIDIA have blown out to past GFC levels, suggesting market concern about AI build-outs.

### 16. SMH/SPY (VanEck Semiconductor ETF / SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** outperforming SPY
**Key Levels:** 0.6200 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Semiconductors (SMH) are continuing to outperform the S&P 500 (SPY) over the last couple of weeks and are holding above their own support levels. This indicates strength in the backbone of the US economy, at least for now.

### 17. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding support
**Key Levels:** 376.56 support, 317.99 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

SMH is holding above its support levels, indicating that the semiconductor sector is maintaining its strength.

### 18. KOSPI (KOSPI Composite Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** massive sell-off, high volatility
**Key Levels:** 6250 resistance, 5750 support, 5500 support, 5250 support, 5000 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The KOSPI recently experienced a massive sell-off, dropping 20% in just a couple of days, followed by high volatility. This suggests that some companies in the KOSPI (which includes many memory producers like Samsung and Hynix) might be overpriced. This volatility indicates market uncertainty.

### 19. ARKK (ARK Innovation ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** forming structure
**Key Levels:** 69.00 support, 74.43 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

ARKK, often used as a gauge for growth stocks, is holding relatively well through current market conditions. It is starting to form a decent amount of structure, which will be important to watch. Goldman Sachs' 'unprofitable tech stocks' are also holding relatively well.

### 20. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** fallen off, high volume
**Key Levels:** 78.42 support, 80.82 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Software companies (IGV) have fallen off, with volume remaining quite high. The question is whether this is enough to stop the 'freight train' of selling. Historically, software and Bitcoin have been closely correlated.

### 21. COPPER (CFDs on Copper) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** hit 200-day moving average, potential head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 5.5882 resistance, 5.5323 support, 200-day moving average
**Historical Comparison:** null

Copper hit the daily 200-day moving average. Historically, copper doesn't tend to respond to the 200-day MA as well as other markets. The chart shows what looks like a head and shoulders pattern towards the downside, and it's currently back at that neckline.

### 22. GOLD (XAUUSD) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** hit 200-day moving average and demand zone
**Key Levels:** 4726.77 resistance, 4099.57 support, 200-day moving average
**Historical Comparison:** null

Gold hit the 200-day moving average and a demand zone, finding a bid. The demand on the left-hand side is probably the more important aspect. The problem is that so much volatility came in that it only helps position-based investors, making it difficult to trade unless on super small timeframes with good risk management.

### 23. GOLD (XAUUSD) (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** regained above 20-day moving average
**Key Levels:** 4726.77 resistance, 4800.00 resistance, 4400.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Gold has regained above the 20-day moving average on the 2-hour chart, which is an encouraging sign. On the way down, it was finding a lot of resistance and selling, but now it's above the moving average. Higher highs are still needed for a sustained bullish trend.

### 24. ORCL (Oracle Corporation) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** massive drop-off, huge volumes
**Key Levels:** 160.00 support, 120.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** past GFC levels for credit default swaps

Oracle has seen huge volumes and a massive drop-off, falling 50% in the market. This was once a poster child for wealth growth, but now credit default swaps have blown out to past GFC levels. This is a 'canary in the coal mine' that needs to be watched, suggesting that companies might be spending too much on AI build-outs.

### 25. CLX2026 (Crude Oil Futures Nov 2026) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** market has dropped since Monday
**Key Levels:** 75.22 support, 80.00 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Crude oil futures for November 2026 have dropped since Monday, indicating that the market believes the future for oil is a little less optimistic. This is something to note, as it suggests that algorithms or people are thinking things will get better, not worse.

### 26. DXY (U.S. Dollar Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** tight range, potential pit
**Key Levels:** 100.250 resistance, 101.595 resistance, 99.080 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US Dollar Index has not broken up and remains in a very tight range, potentially forming a 'pit' (pullback in time). If it breaks past 100.30, that would be a big deal, especially if it continues to compress. The market is currently saying it's not as bad as last week.

### 27. HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** back at support, potential roll reversal
**Key Levels:** 26226 resistance, 27121 resistance, 24985 support, 25083 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Chinese markets (Hang Seng Index Futures) are back at points where support could become resistance, what we often call 'roll reversals' in markets. This indicates a critical juncture for these markets.

### 28. GER40 (German 40 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** looks like a Sandisk, broke below support
**Key Levels:** 23200 support, 25000 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The German DAX looks similar to Sandisk in some ways, with high points and a break below support. This market is not looking too healthy yet, requiring more work for the bull side to come through.

### 29. ETHUSDT (Ethereum / TetherUS) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** remained resistant
**Key Levels:** 2364.63 resistance, 1896.35 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Ethereum has remained relatively resistant, performing better than the software sector. Everything is currently sitting at resistance levels.

### 30. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** struggling to break 72000, inverse head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 72000 resistance, 65170.99 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Bitcoin is struggling to break through 72000, which has acted as a sell pressure point. The market has held for now, and some might see this as an inverse head and shoulders pattern. If it breaks out, the technical target would be to the resistance highs. Markets have stabilized on these factors for now.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The video discusses several macro regimes and intermarket comparisons:
- **Geopolitical Conflict & Oil Supply Disruptions:** The current global oil supply disruptions (similar to Arab Oil Embargo, Iranian Revolution, Iraq Invades Kuwait, Russia-Ukraine War) are impacting markets, with oil prices (especially diesel in Australia) seeing significant increases. Historically, these events lead to market struggles for the first 60-100 days.
- **Inflation Concerns:** The potential for inflation to come back, with companies holding 20-30% jacked prices on certain things like oil, suggests that it won't be easy to stop, possibly leading to more rate hikes or prolonged holds, putting pressure on the debt system.
- **4th Year of a Bull Market:** 2026 is identified as the 4th year of a bull market, which historically tends to be weaker, with pullbacks at the beginning of the year, rallies into the middle, and potential bad outcomes around midterm elections. The S&P 500's current distance above its log-linear trend line (28.3%) is the second highest ever, suggesting an overbought condition.
- **Market Volatility & Uncertainty:** High numbers of intraday reversals in the S&P 500 since 2005 indicate significant volatility and an unsure market regarding real valuations. This favors nimble traders over long-term investors.
- **Tech Sector Dynamics:** While semiconductors (SMH) are outperforming the S&P 500, suggesting a strong backbone, specific tech stocks like Sandisk (SNDK) and Oracle (ORCL) are showing signs of distribution and massive drop-offs, with credit default swaps for Oracle blowing out to past GFC levels. This raises questions about AI build-out spending and potential overvaluation in certain tech segments. Software companies (IGV) are also falling off.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch for potential technical distribution in hardware businesses like Sandisk (SNDK) due to massive transactions near highs.
- Monitor the 6600 zone on the S&P 500 (VOO) for options activity and dark pool movements, as historical patterns suggest potential bottoming out after large transactions.
- Be aware of the NASDAQ Composite's historical tendency to dip after 9 weeks down in 10, but also note the historical bullish rebound 3 months later.
- Recognize that the S&P 500 is significantly above its log-linear trend line, suggesting an overbought market that could revert to averages.
- Keep an eye on gold's response after 9 straight down days, as historical data suggests a positive rebound one month later.
- Be cautious of the German DAX and Chinese markets (Hang Seng) as they are showing signs of weakness and potential roll reversals.
- Note the falling junk bonds (HYG) as a worrying sign of inflation concerns and rising risk pricing.
- Watch Oracle (ORCL) as a 'canary in the coal mine' due to its massive drop and credit default swap blowouts, questioning AI build-out spending.
- Monitor crude oil futures (CLX2026) for future price expectations, as current drops suggest a less optimistic outlook.
- Be nimble and fast in markets due to high volatility and uncertainty, as this environment favors traders over long-term investors.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SNDK, VOO, US500, GOLD, USOIL, SPX, SPYM, NAS100, NVDA, HYG, IGV, ARKK, COPPER, ORCL, CLX2026, DXY, HSI1!, GER40, ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT, IUSG, KOSPI, SMH

---
*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-03-25 23:02:11*