# Is The Worst Still To Come? **Date:** 2026-03-29 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Q8yDs_tS8M) ## Main Thesis The market is showing signs of significant weakness across multiple sectors, including financials, tech, and global indices, with rising bond yields and liquidity stress indicating potential for further downside and increased volatility. While some relief rallies may occur, the overall structure points to a challenging period ahead, reminiscent of previous market tops. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. XLF (State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** series of higher highs, equal lows, then broken below **Key Levels:** 51.00 resistance, 47.81 current price, 46.67 support XLF is showing a series of higher highs followed by equal lows, which has now broken below. The current price is 47.81, with a key resistance at 51.00 and support at 46.67. The speaker questions if the market is heading towards 46.67, indicating a bearish outlook for financials. ### 2. ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** rising and accelerating **Key Levels:** 134.5990 current price, 111.9456 support, 60.0344 support The MOVE index, representing bond market volatility, is rising and accelerating, indicating increased risks in bonds. The current price is 134.5990, with key levels at 111.9456 and 60.0344. This suggests something significant is happening underneath the hood in Wall Street. ### 3. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** breaking below key support **Key Levels:** 169.94 major support, 167.52 current price NVIDIA is breaking below its key 170 marker (specifically 169.94 major support), with the current price at 167.52. This could signal the end of the AI trade, contributing to overall market weakness. ### 4. JP02Y (Japan 2 Year LSEG Government Bonds Yield) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** massive increase in yields **Key Levels:** 1.381% current yield Japanese 2-year government bond yields are coming back into full focus with a massive increase over the last couple of sessions, currently at 1.381%. This indicates liquidity problems and increased pressure on central banks. ### 5. Gold (XAUUSD) (4-hour) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downward trend **Key Levels:** 4726.77 resistance, 4493.14 support Gold is in a downward trend, with liquidity problems starting to show up, potentially in real estate. Key levels are 4726.77 resistance and 4493.14 support. The speaker emphasizes that this time, the liquidity issues could be showing up in real estate. ### 6. FINRA Margin Debt (monthly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** peaks followed by market tops **Key Levels:** record high debt in 2025, drop in February 2026 **Historical Comparison:** previous market peaks and tops (2000, 2008, 2020) FINRA Margin Debt reached new highs in 2025, but in February 2026, it started to come under pressure and dropped off. This pattern has historically been observed at previous market peaks and tops (e.g., 2000, 2008, 2020), suggesting a potential warning sign for the current market. ### 7. S&P 500 / Daily Sentiment Index (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** sentiment index reaching historical lows **Key Levels:** 15 sentiment index low **Historical Comparison:** previous market bottoms where sentiment was low The Daily Sentiment Index for the S&P 500 has come down to historically low levels (around 15), which has notoriously been closer to a bottom. However, the speaker notes that only 2-3 sub-sectors are doing okay, while the rest are selling off, indicating broad market weakness. This suggests that while sentiment is low, it doesn't guarantee an immediate rebound and could lead to further liquidations. ### 8. S&P 500 Forward Performance After Major U.S. Ground Troop Deployments Post-WWII (various (days, weeks, months)) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH **Pattern:** mixed performance after deployments **Key Levels:** 80-100 days struggle point **Historical Comparison:** various historical military deployments (e.g., Korean War, Vietnam War, Gulf War) This chart shows S&P 500 performance after major U.S. ground troop deployments. While not a direct market read, it illustrates that markets often struggle around the 80-100 day mark after such events. The speaker notes that the current geopolitical situation is evolving, and while some signs point to potential market hits, others do not. The table below shows mixed returns and pullbacks across different timeframes after various conflicts. ### 9. S&P 500: When 0% of S&P Financials Are Above the 50-Day EMA (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** historical low points **Key Levels:** 0% financials above 50-EMA **Historical Comparison:** Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and 2018 charts This chart shows that 0% of S&P Financials are currently above their 50-day EMA, a condition that has historically coincided with low points in the market, including during the GFC. While not a definitive bottoming signal (as markets fell further in some instances), it marks a significant bearish technical state for financials, which are currently down over 15% from their peak. ### 10. S&P 500 when VIX exceeds 30 (first case in 10 months) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH (SHORT-TERM REBOUND) **Pattern:** market rebound after initial VIX spike **Key Levels:** VIX exceeds 30 **Historical Comparison:** VIX spikes since 1992 The VIX has exceeded 30 for the first time in 10 months. Historically, when the VIX crosses above 30 for the first time in 10 months, markets often find some rebound in the short term (1-3 days). This is because markets tend to sell off in fear, rally even in fear, and then sell off again. The speaker emphasizes that market structure will be super important to track. ### 11. S&P 500: Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE) Crosses Above 115 (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** market getting crushed from this point **Key Levels:** MOVE crosses above 115 **Historical Comparison:** MOVE index since 2003 The MOVE index has begun accelerating once again, and historically, when it crosses above 115 after remaining below it for at least 3 months, it often signals that markets are about to get 'crushed' or bottom out. The speaker notes that in 2020, it just kept falling off, but the speed of acceleration is a key factor. For a bullish market, the MOVE index needs to be crushed back down. ### 12. S&P 500: Streak of 5 Consecutive Negative Weeks (weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH (SHORT-TERM BOTTOM) **Pattern:** unusual territory, temporary bottoms **Key Levels:** 5 consecutive negative weeks **Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 performance since 1980 The S&P 500 has experienced a streak of 5 consecutive negative weeks, which is starting to enter unusual territory. Historically, this has often occurred near temporary bottoming points, sometimes followed by a period of sideways movement before finding buying pressure. The speaker emphasizes looking at the actual structure rather than just the stats. ### 13. SPX - 1YR candle (Internals) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** structural weakness **Key Levels:** 20% below 50-DMA, 33% below 100-DMA, 42% below 200-DMA, 30.6% at new lows (4-week) This chart shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above certain moving averages and at new highs/lows. Currently, less than 20% are above the 50-DMA, about 33% below the 100-DMA, and 42% below the 200-DMA. Over 30% of stocks are at 4-week new lows. The speaker highlights these as points where structural support is sought, emphasizing the 'patience, react, don't predict' concept to look for bids in the market. ### 14. XLE (energy sector ETF) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH (ENERGY) **Pattern:** rising price with record short interest **Key Levels:** record high short interest The XLE (energy sector ETF) is one of the few markets that keeps going up, along with gasoline and agriculture. Short interest in XLE is at record highs, indicating a strong bearish sentiment against the rising price. The speaker notes that these are mostly defensive sectors or are rising due to geopolitical tensions. ### 15. ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** accelerating volatility **Key Levels:** MOVE crosses above 115 **Historical Comparison:** previous MOVE index spikes (e.g., Silicon Valley Bank crisis) The MOVE index is continuing to move up, and the speaker is looking for it to get 'crushed' for a bullish market. Historically, when it crosses above 115, it often signals a market bottom, but the speed of acceleration is key. The speaker references the Silicon Valley Bank crisis as a time when the MOVE index spiked and then was crushed, leading to market support. The current acceleration is a concern. ### 16. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downward trend, breaking support **Key Levels:** 6500 support (lost), 6200-6000 next support The US500 has lost the 6500 level, which was a key support. The next levels of structural support are around 6200 and 6000. The speaker notes that there isn't much holding the market up before these levels, suggesting further downside is likely without significant buying pressure. ### 17. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downward trend, dynamic resistance **Key Levels:** 6545.80 resistance, 6205.89 support, 5669.94 gap fill The SPX is showing a similar signal to the US500, with 6200-ish being the major first level of structure. The speaker highlights that if the market rallies back up, previous support (6545.80) could act as dynamic resistance. The market is below the 50-week moving average, and nothing good happens underneath the daily 200 moving average (which sits around 6600). A series of lower lows and lower highs is evident. ### 18. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downward trend, lower lows and lower highs **Key Levels:** 6545.80 resistance, 6205.89 support, 5669.94 gap fill On a daily timeframe, the SPX shows a clear downward trend with lower lows and lower highs. The speaker notes minor support around 6300, but it's uncertain if it will find full bid buyers. The 6200 level is a psychological level. Reclaiming the daily 200 (around 6600) is incredibly important, but the market is currently showing significant weakness. ### 19. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** negative gamma space, waterfall effect **Key Levels:** 6500, 6400 key levels, 6358 current spot price, 6200 strikes The options market for SPX is showing significant negative gamma space, with 6500 and 6400 being key levels. The market closed just below these zones, indicating that Wall Street will likely need to hedge, potentially leading to a 'waterfall effect' if news continues to escalate. Strikes as low as 6200 are dominated by puts, suggesting strong bearish sentiment. ### 20. Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** negative gamma pressure, puts dominant **Key Levels:** 570, 600, 560 key levels, 562.6 current spot price For the QQQ, the market is well underneath 600, currently at 562.6, which has put a huge amount of negative gamma pressure on the market, leading to selling on Friday. 560 seems to come up a lot, which is right where the market closed. Puts are dominant, indicating bears are fully in control. This situation may require hedging, especially if more gaps occur on Monday. ### 21. Net GEX All Expirations for NVDA (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** negative gamma, potential for further fall **Key Levels:** 170-167 tough zone, 167.52 current spot price NVIDIA started to sell off, moving through the 170-167 zone. While there might be some support, the combination with semiconductor weakness is concerning. The speaker asks the audience to identify the chart pattern, implying it's a bearish one. If it falls further, it's not a good sign. ### 22. Net GEX All Expirations for SMH (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** negative gamma, lack of underlying structure **Key Levels:** 360 key level, 374.25 current spot price For SMH (semiconductors), there are issues as well. If the 360 key level is lost, there's not much underlying structure to support it. The speaker notes a lack of underlying structure, suggesting a potential 'shuttering' of parts of the economy if this trend continues. ### 23. S&P 500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** falling below key thresholds **Key Levels:** 21.10 threshold, 19.68 current level, 2.74 extreme low **Historical Comparison:** previous periods of market relief The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average is back to periods where the market previously found some relief (around 20%). However, the speaker warns that it can get worse, having fallen to almost 5% at one point. This indicates extreme downside momentum and is a major concern. ### 24. S&P 500 Stocks Above 5-Day Average (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** falling below key thresholds **Key Levels:** 21.27 current level The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 5-day moving average is also sitting around 20%, showing similar bearish reads across different moving averages. This indicates broad market weakness. ### 25. ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** accelerating volatility, not yet crushed **Key Levels:** +95.78% current move, 70.95% previous high, 54.75% previous high **Historical Comparison:** Silicon Valley Bank crisis (2023) The MOVE index is a super important index because it shows huge amounts of moves in the market. It's accelerating in terms of the move market and not getting crushed yet. The speaker compares it to the Silicon Valley Bank crisis where a huge movement up was followed by a crash, putting structure in place. The current acceleration without a crash is a bearish sign, indicating a lack of market bottom. ### 26. Hang Seng Index Futures (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Wyckoff tops (distribution pattern) **Key Levels:** 24985 resistance, 24637 current price, 22022 support The Chinese markets (Hang Seng Index Futures) have started to roll over, potentially forming Wyckoff tops, which are distribution patterns with a series of lower lows and lower highs. The market is currently at 24637, with resistance at 24985 and support at 22022. Despite being relatively resilient, the bearish pattern is concerning. ### 27. GER40 (German 40 Index) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Wyckoff top, similar to 2022 **Key Levels:** 22995.8 resistance, 22128.0 current price, 13761.3 support **Historical Comparison:** German market in 2022 The German market is showing an almost textbook Wyckoff top, similar to what was observed in 2022. The market has fallen through key support levels (22995.8 resistance, 22128.0 current price, 13761.3 support), and without resolution, it could continue to decline significantly, exacerbating existing issues. ### 28. META (Meta Platforms, Inc.) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** dropping off a cliff **Key Levels:** 525.72 support, 496.51 support Meta is 'dropping off a cliff,' with the price falling significantly. The speaker notes that big tech markets are already in semi-bear markets. Key support levels are 525.72 and 496.51. This is a major concern for the overall market. ### 29. MSFT (Microsoft Corp.) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** falling under pressure **Key Levels:** 408.24 resistance, 356.77 support, 321.71 support, 272.24 support **Historical Comparison:** Liberation Day lows Microsoft is falling down to where it was during the Liberation Day lows (around 356.77 support) and continues to come under extreme pressure. The speaker notes that this was once considered one of the best stocks, but since the AI narrative, it has been under pressure. These are insignificant turnaround markets, and the 'magnificent seven' are not looking bullish. ### 30. MAGS (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** closing on its lows, potential further fall **Key Levels:** 55.45 current price, 42.22 support, 38.88 support The Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) is not looking bullish, closing on its lows (55.45 current price). It looks like it could keep falling off, and it's difficult to find much support on the left-hand side. This was the first sign that things were starting to get worse since February 9th. ### 31. HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** new low, downward trend **Key Levels:** 79.94 resistance, 78.72 current price Junk bonds (HYG) are saying the same thing, making a new low (78.72 current price) and continuing a downward trend. The speaker reiterates that when bond markets wake up, it's a concern, and this is another sign of market weakness. ### 32. JPM (JP Morgan Chase & Co.) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs, breaking support **Key Levels:** 282.84 current price JP Morgan has done something similar to other financials, showing a series of lower lows and lower highs, breaking towards the downside on high volume. This indicates significant weakness in the financial sector. ### 33. GS (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** starting to turn down **Key Levels:** 802.89 current price Goldman Sachs has also just started to turn down (802.89 current price). Dropping these levels can create fear or panic in the market, adding to the overall bearish sentiment. ### 34. US Dollar Index Futures (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH (DOLLAR) **Pattern:** Wyckoff base, accelerating into weekend **Key Levels:** 99.980 support, 98.680 support, 100.250 resistance, 103.300 resistance The US Dollar Index Futures has formed a Wyckoff base, doing a 'pit' (pullback in time) and accelerating again into the weekend. If it breaks through 100.250, it could expose 103.300. A strong dollar indicates money moving out of other markets, which is a bearish sign for those markets. ### 35. JP02Y (Japan 2 Year LSEG Government Bonds Yield) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** massive acceleration **Key Levels:** 1.381% current yield Japanese 2-year government bond yields are showing a massive acceleration over the last couple of years, currently at 1.381%. This continues to put pressure on central banks and is a worrying sign. ### 36. JP10Y (Japan Government Bonds 10 YR Yield) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** absolutely skyrocketing **Key Levels:** 2.379% current yield Japanese 10-year government bond yields are absolutely skyrocketing (currently at 2.379%), putting a lot of pressure on central banks around the world. This is a significant concern for global financial stability. ### 37. AU01Y (Australia 1 Year Government Bonds Yield) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** rising sharply **Key Levels:** 4.715% current yield The Australian 1-year government bond yield is very susceptible to global fuel prices and is rising sharply (currently at 4.715%). This can put a lot of pressure on the housing market in Australia and is part of a broader worrying trend in global yields. ### 38. US10Y (United States 10 Year Government Bonds Yield) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** breakouts **Key Levels:** 4.500% resistance, 4.428% current yield The US 10-year government bond yield is showing breakouts, currently at 4.428% with resistance at 4.500%. This indicates rising yields in the US, which is a concern for the broader market. ### 39. US30Y (United States 30 Year Government Bonds Yield) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** breakouts **Key Levels:** 5.052% resistance, 4.965% current yield The US 30-year government bond yield is also showing breakouts, currently at 4.965% with resistance at 5.052%. Rising yields in longer-term bonds exacerbate debt issues, especially without stimulus, and could lead to stagflationary problems. ### 40. UK Oil (Brent Crude) (2-hour) **Bias:** BULLISH (OIL) **Pattern:** rising trend **Key Levels:** 115.35 resistance, 106.28 current price UK Oil (Brent Crude) is in a rising trend, currently at 106.28 with resistance at 115.35. The speaker notes that diesel and heavy machinery are driven by this oil, and it's a key chart to watch. Rising oil prices contribute to inflation and stagflationary concerns. ### 41. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** lost major support, barely holding minor support **Key Levels:** 169.88 major support, 167.52 current price, 165 minor support NVIDIA lost its major support at 169.88 and is barely holding onto minor support around 165. The speaker notes that the puts indicated this weakness, and the question is what kind of pattern this is (implying a bearish one). If it falls further, it's not good. ### 42. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** falling to lows, first close below key level **Key Levels:** 376.20 resistance, 374.25 current price Semiconductors (SMH) are falling to their lows, with the current price at 374.25 and resistance at 376.20. This is the first time it has closed down here, which is not ideal. The speaker emphasizes that AI has been holding up this market, and the current problems are concerning. ### 43. SNDK (Sandisk Corporation) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** Wyckoff dumps, cluster trades **Key Levels:** 615.83 current price Sandisk (SNDK) is showing possible Wyckoff dumps with huge amounts of cluster trades at higher levels. This indicates significant distribution and points towards a more significant downturn. If this trend continues for another 2-3 weeks, it will start 'shuttering' parts of the economy. ### 44. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** doji candles, big weakness, lower lows and lower highs **Key Levels:** 23996.9 resistance, 23074.1 current price, 22742.6 support 1, 21482.5 support 2 The NAS100 has seen a fall, with doji candles indicating indecision, followed by a big weakness candle. It has rallied into further weakness, showing a series of lower lows and lower highs. The current price is 23074.1, with resistance at 23996.9 and supports at 22742.6 and 21482.5. The speaker emphasizes tracking these lower lows and lower highs. ### 45. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (4-hour) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** massive trendline resistance **Key Levels:** downward trendline, 6354.1 current price The US500 on a 4-hour chart shows a massive downward trendline that the market hasn't been able to rally above. If it rallies above this trendline, it would be a significant sign. Currently, it remains below, indicating continued bearish pressure. ### 46. ITB (iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** fallen off, 23% down in weeks **Key Levels:** 88.91 current price Home construction (ITB) has fallen off significantly, losing 23% in just a couple of weeks since February. This indicates that higher interest rates are being felt in the housing market, contributing to overall economic weakness. ### 47. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (4-hour) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH **Pattern:** holding demand section, accumulation base **Key Levels:** 65170.99 support, 67036.46 current price, 72500 resistance Bitcoin has lost some ground but is still holding in a demand section (around 65170.99 support), forming an accumulation base. Key levels to watch include taking out the 72500 level. Bitcoin is one of the few markets that is kind of holding up, unlike many other traditional assets. ### 48. Gold (XAUUSD) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** most traded zone hit, daily 200 reached **Key Levels:** 4726.77 resistance, 4493.14 current price, 4418.54 support, 2853.60 long-term support Gold has suffered from liquidity issues and hit the most traded zone on the way up last week, which also coincided with the daily 200 moving average being reached. The current price is 4493.14, with resistance at 4726.77 and support at 4418.54. While some relief may come, breaking the series of lower lows and lower highs (getting through 4750) is crucial. The speaker notes that stopping a freight train on the downside can take a while, so structure will be key. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is currently in a regime of 'liquidity stress' and 'systemic pressure building,' with private equity firms facing problems, record margin debt, and declining sentiment. This is coupled with rising bond yields globally, indicating a potential 'stagflationary' environment where central banks face challenges in providing stimulus due to existing inflation. The overall market structure across various indices and sectors suggests a broad-based weakness, with only a few defensive sectors showing strength. ## Key Calls & Predictions - Watch for further declines in financials (XLF) towards 46.67. - Monitor NVIDIA (NVDA) for continued weakness, potentially signaling the end of the AI trade. - Be aware of increasing bond market volatility (MOVE index) and rising Japanese yields (JP02Y, JP10Y) as indicators of systemic pressure. - Expect continued selling in big tech (META, MSFT, MAGS) and global indices (Hang Seng, GER40). - Track the US Dollar Index (DXY) for a potential breakout above 100.250, which would indicate money flowing out of other markets. - Observe UK Oil (Brent Crude) as a key commodity to watch for continued upward movement, contributing to inflation. - Look for structural support in the S&P 500 (SPX, US500) around 6200-6000, and for the daily 200 moving average (around 6600) to be reclaimed for any bullish reversal. - Pay attention to the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above moving averages and at new lows as indicators of broad market health. - Monitor Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) for holding its accumulation base around 65170.99 as a potential safe haven, but also watch for a breakout above 72500. - Be cautious of 'Wyckoff dumps' and 'cluster trades' in individual stocks and sectors, indicating distribution. ## All Instruments Mentioned XLF, MOVE, NVDA, JP02Y, Gold, FINRA Margin Debt, S&P 500, Daily Sentiment Index, XLE, US500, SPX, QQQ, SMH, SNDK, Hang Seng Index Futures, GER40, META, MSFT, MAGS, HYG, JPM, GS, US Dollar Index Futures, JP10Y, AU01Y, US10Y, US30Y, UK Oil, ITB, BTCUSDT, Silver, Copper --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-03-29 23:01:10*