# We Have Seen This Before...
**Date:** 2026-04-01  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgB1oa1E4rk)

## Main Thesis
The market is experiencing high volatility with some similarities to past periods of market instability (2008, 2020, stagflationary 1970s), but also showing signs of potential short-term relief rallies. The AI trade and semiconductor sector are key areas to watch, with a focus on whether current bounces are 'dead cat bounces' or sustainable reversals.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. US500 (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downward trend line
**Key Levels:** 6439.9 support, 6536.5 resistance, 6655.7 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 2008 and 2020 market behavior

The S&P 500 (US500) is currently in a downward trend, bouncing off a structural base. The market broke through a previous level around 6430-6440 and is now attempting to reach 6600. The chart shows a clear downward trend line that has been respected. The speaker notes that while there's a potential for de-escalation, the market's current behavior has similarities to 2008 and 2020, suggesting potential for more volatility.

### 2. MOVE (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** spike and fall
**Key Levels:** 96.0536 current level, 114.0194 high, 102.1213 high
**Historical Comparison:** null

The MOVE index, representing bond market volatility, saw a significant spike and has since crashed back down. This is seen as a positive sign for bulls, indicating potential support in bond markets. The speaker notes that a large red candle has come through, accelerating the risk off the bonds market.

### 3. NVDA (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower highs and lower lows
**Key Levels:** 186.55 important close, 167.35 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

NVIDIA (NVDA) is showing a series of lower highs and lower lows, indicating a downward trend. The speaker questions if the market has done enough to break this trend. The chart highlights key levels around 186.55 (important close) and 167.35 (support).

### 4. QQQ (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower highs and lower lows
**Key Levels:** 591.01 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is in a clear downward trend with a series of lower highs and lower lows. The speaker questions if the recent bounce is enough to break this trend. The chart shows a resistance level at 591.01.

### 5. SPY (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** market sell-offs
**Key Levels:** 2007-2008 lows, 2020 lows, 2022 lows
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 2007-2008, 2020, and 2022

This chart shows historical S&P 500 performance, highlighting days when SPY, QQQ, IWM, and DIA gained 2%+ while USO fell 1%+ on the same day since 2007. These instances (marked in red) often precede periods of increased volatility. The speaker notes that while 2020 saw a rally due to massive stimulus, the current environment lacks such central bank support, suggesting more volatility ahead.

### 6. S&P 500 (monthly/quarterly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** midterm election year volatility
**Key Levels:** Q1 negative performance
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 1962, 1970, 1978, 2002 (stagflationary periods)

This chart analyzes S&P 500 performance during midterm election years with a negative first quarter since 1950. The speaker highlights that Q2 performance is historically poor (up only 27.27% of the time) following a bad Q1 in midterm years. Comparisons are drawn to stagflationary periods like the 1960s, 1970s, and the dot-com bust in 2002, suggesting potential for continued volatility and lackluster results.

### 7. MOVE (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** spike and fall
**Key Levels:** 60.0344 support, 115.0172 high
**Historical Comparison:** null

The MOVE index on a weekly timeframe shows a significant spike in volatility followed by a sharp decline. The speaker notes that the bond market has started to turn around, which is a good sign for bulls. The acceleration of risk on bond markets has started to fall off, suggesting potential stability.

### 8. XLE (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** extended rally, potential reversal
**Key Levels:** 14 consecutive positive weeks threshold
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Energy Sector ETF (XLE) has seen 14 consecutive positive weeks, an epic run. However, a massive dark pool transaction (14th largest on record) occurred just before a recent announcement, suggesting potential profit-taking or hedging. The speaker questions if this indicates a peak in energy stocks or a strategic move by institutional players.

### 9. XLE (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** uptrend, potential reversal candle
**Key Levels:** 60.48 current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows the daily price action of XLE, confirming the strong uptrend. The speaker points out a large red candle with significant volume, indicating a potential reversal or profit-taking. This dark pool transaction is the 14th largest on record, raising questions about whether energy stocks have peaked.

### 10. S&P 500 (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** high put volume preceding rebounds
**Key Levels:** 8 million put volume threshold
**Historical Comparison:** similar to previous instances of high put volume

This chart tracks S&P 500 performance after SPY put volume exceeds 8 million. The speaker notes that current put volumes are at extreme levels, historically preceding market rebounds. While not a full capitulation, it suggests a 'flash sell' and a normal correction phase (around -10% from highs), which has been observed. The speaker highlights that previous instances of high put volume have often led to market structure and rebounds.

### 11. SH (intraday (4-hour))

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** short covering
**Key Levels:** 38.95 current price, 37.50 support, 38.75 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows ProShares Short S&P500 (SH), an inverse ETF. A large dark pool transaction (sweep) is noted, suggesting someone may have quickly closed out a short position. This often happens when the market is perceived as oversold, leading to a relief rally. The speaker questions if this is a technical 'dead cat bounce' or a more sustainable rally.

### 12. MU (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** breakdown from trading range
**Key Levels:** 315.47 current price, 400-450 trading range
**Historical Comparison:** null

Micron Technology (MU) saw a significant breakdown from its previous trading range (400-450). The speaker notes the number one largest trade on MU occurred recently, and the ninth largest trade happened the day before the rally. This suggests either liquidation, a 'liquidity hunt', or institutional buying at perceived value. The semiconductor sector as a whole lost support, and a quick V-shaped reversal could lead to a 'squeeze' higher.

### 13. U.S. Individual Stocks (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** declining retail net turnover
**Key Levels:** 0.5B turnover
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart tracks retail investor net flows into U.S. individual stocks. Unlike previous years where retail investors 'bought the dip', the current data (2026) shows a decline in single U.S. stocks retail net turnover. This suggests retail investors are not as aggressively buying the dip, possibly due to fear or other factors, which is a notable shift in market behavior.

### 14. S&P 500 (various)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** forward performance after ground troop deployments
**Key Levels:** various
**Historical Comparison:** various historical military conflicts

This chart shows S&P 500 forward performance after major U.S. ground troop deployments post-WWII. The speaker emphasizes the importance of keeping this in mind due to current geopolitical uncertainties. While not directly tied to current market action, it serves as a reminder of how external events can impact markets, often leading to volatility.

### 15. QQQ (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** decline to trade range bottom
**Key Levels:** 585.38 resistance, 560.00 support, 537.88 major support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The QQQ has declined to the bottom of its overall trade range, around the 560.00 level. The speaker notes that the market went a bit far away from its moving averages and has now rebounded back to those zones. This suggests a potential for a bounce within the established range.

### 16. QQQ (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** moving average resistance
**Key Levels:** 585.38 resistance, 560.00 support, 537.88 major support
**Historical Comparison:** null

On the 4-hour chart, the 20-moving average has been respected each time QQQ has pulled back up to this level. The market went a bit far from these averages and has now rebounded back to those zones. This is a critical point, and the speaker questions if the market can break through the resistance.

### 17. US500 (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** small structural base, trend line resistance
**Key Levels:** 6612.9 options high level, 6444.1 options low level, 6232.9 first support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The S&P 500 (US500) formed a small structural base and broke through a previous level around 6430-6440. The market is now trying to get back up to 6600, which is a significant inflection point. This area also represents the number one traded range on the way down and has seen several massive dark pool transactions. If markets break through the downward trend line and 6612.9, it could lead to a squeeze to the upside.

### 18. US500 (2-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** bounce from support
**Key Levels:** 6442.4 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The S&P 500 (US500) on the 2-hour chart shows a bounce from the 6442.4 support level. The speaker questions if the market has done enough to break down to a really key support or if it's just a news-driven bounce.

### 19. US500 (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** bounce from 'middle of nowhere'
**Key Levels:** 6442.4 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

On the weekly chart, the S&P 500 (US500) bounced up from what the speaker describes as 'the middle of nowhere land' (not a strong technical support). This bounce is news-driven. The speaker notes that the Nasdaq had better support, but the overall market bounce wasn't broad-based.

### 20. SPX (all expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** put/call walls
**Key Levels:** 6500 support, 6300 most struck level, 7000 call resistance, 6550 HVOL
**Historical Comparison:** null

This Net GEX chart for SPX (all expirations) shows 6500 as the second most struck level and 6300 as the most struck level, with tons of puts supporting the market on the way down. The market ended up in a neutral gamma position, suggesting dealer hedging came in. The speaker notes that a lot of dealers were offside, and the relief rally is helping them. Two massive call walls are appearing at 6500 and 6600, indicating the market is jammed between these prices.

### 21. SPX (various expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** put/call walls
**Key Levels:** 6400, 6300, 6200 put support, 6500, 6600 call resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows GEX profiles for various SPX expirations. Each 100-point interval (6400, 6300, 6200) is important for puts. The speaker highlights 6500 and 6600 as two massive call walls starting to appear, reinforcing the idea that the market is jammed between these price levels and lacks clear direction.

### 22. QQQ (all expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** put/call walls
**Key Levels:** 570 put support, 630 call resistance, 590 HVOL
**Historical Comparison:** null

Similar to SPX, the Net GEX for QQQ (all expirations) shows puts all over the current prices (around 570 support) and calls at 580 and 590. This indicates the market is jammed between these price points, reflecting uncertainty.

### 23. QQQ (various expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** put/call walls
**Key Levels:** 570 put support, 580, 590 call resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows GEX profiles for various QQQ expirations. Puts are concentrated around current prices, and calls are significant at 580 and 590. This reinforces the idea of the market being stuck between these levels, with dealers hedging their positions.

### 24. NVDA (all expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** put/call walls
**Key Levels:** 165 put support, 180 call resistance, 172 HVOL
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Net GEX for NVDA (all expirations) shows put support around 165 and call resistance around 180. The speaker notes that NVDA literally tapped previous perfect lows and then fell through, suggesting a change in trend. The importance of trend and change of trend is highlighted.

### 25. NVDA (various expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** put/call walls
**Key Levels:** 175-180 call side, 165 put side
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows GEX profiles for various NVDA expirations. The speaker notes a significant presence of calls on the 175-180 side, but not as much as seen in other indices. This suggests less conviction in a strong upward move for NVDA compared to the broader market.

### 26. S5FI (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** flash sell
**Key Levels:** 24.05 support, 21.10 support, 2.74 major support
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day average. The speaker notes that the percentage fell back into the 20s, indicating a 'trend sell' rather than just a panic sell. While it can go lower during capitulation (to 2.74), the current level suggests a flash sell or corrective phase.

### 27. S5TH (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** decline from highs
**Key Levels:** 47.31 current level, 42.17 low, 29.97 capitulation level
**Historical Comparison:** similar to March-April period during tariffs

This chart shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day average. It's currently at 47.31, having dropped from higher levels. A real capitulation would take it under 30, which was seen last year during the March-April period due to tariffs. The speaker notes this didn't happen this time, but it's a metric to track closely.

### 28. UKOIL (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** news-driven volatility, resistance becoming support
**Key Levels:** 115.13 resistance, 105.22 current level
**Historical Comparison:** null

UK Oil (Brent Crude) saw news push it down, but it's still holding at a previous resistance level that has become support. The speaker suggests it could still break 115.13, indicating continued volatility. The market is news-driven, and earnings season will be the ultimate test for valuations.

### 29. CF (4-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend, pullback
**Key Levels:** 129.81 current price, 116.77 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

CF Industries Holdings (CF), an agricultural/fertilizer stock, is still in an upward trend despite a recent pullback. The speaker notes that a lot of damage has already been done to the supply chain, suggesting continued upward pressure on these stocks.

### 30. CF (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend, pullback
**Key Levels:** 129.84 current price, 120.30 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

On the daily chart, CF Industries Holdings (CF) shows a strong uptrend with a recent pullback. The speaker reiterates that supply chain issues are still a concern, implying continued strength for agricultural stocks.

### 31. XLE (4-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend, holding 20-moving average
**Key Levels:** 61.24 current price, 55.47 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Energy Sector ETF (XLE) is still holding its generalized trend line, specifically the 4-hour 20-moving average. Despite the large dark pool transaction, the trend remains intact for now. The speaker questions if institutional players know something retail doesn't, given the recent profit-taking.

### 32. GER40 (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Wyckoff distribution, lower low
**Key Levels:** 23051.8 resistance, 22500 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The German 40 Index (GER40) shows a Wyckoff distribution pattern, having taken a lower low. The speaker notes big volumes at the lows and significant supply at 23500, suggesting the market is not out of the woods yet. The speaker mentions that double bottom pattern traders will be watching the breakout, but the overall trend is still down.

### 33. BTCUSD (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downward flag
**Key Levels:** 65170.99 support, 68006.00 resistance, 72000 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is holding onto what many perceive as a downward flag pattern, barely holding support. The speaker notes that 72000 is a key level to watch. The market is still in a series of lower lows and lower highs, indicating that it's not 'okay' yet.

### 34. HSI1! (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** recovery, no higher high yet
**Key Levels:** 24985 support, 26226 resistance, 27121 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI1!) shows a bit better recovery than some other markets, but it hasn't broken through a higher high yet. The speaker emphasizes that with this much volatility, anything can happen, and the market could still trend downwards. Technically, a break of lower lows and lower highs with a higher high is needed for a bullish reversal.

### 35. DX1! (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rejection from resistance
**Key Levels:** 100.250 resistance, 98.680 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Dollar Index Futures (DX1!) poked its head above 100.30 but has since rejected that level off the news. The speaker notes that it's still holding higher lows, suggesting an upward sequence, but the rejection from resistance is significant.

### 36. DX1! (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rejection from resistance
**Key Levels:** 100.250 resistance, 98.680 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

On the daily chart, the Dollar Index Futures (DX1!) shows a rejection from the 100.250 resistance level. Despite this, it's still holding higher lows, maintaining an upward sequence. The speaker notes that the bond market reacted favorably to this, suggesting some stability.

### 37. MOVE (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** spike and fall
**Key Levels:** 97.7454 current level, 96.0536 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The MOVE index shows a significant spike and subsequent crash, which the speaker considers a good sign for market stability. This indicates that bond market volatility is decreasing, which is generally favorable for equities.

### 38. NVDA (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower high, lower low range
**Key Levels:** 169.88 major support, 185.71 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

NVIDIA (NVDA) did not break below its previous lower low, but it remains in a lower high, lower low range. The speaker states that a break above 185.71 would be very strong, potentially leading to a 'squeezy' rally. Currently, it's floating around 170, suggesting continued uncertainty.

### 39. KOSPI (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** blow-off top, support at 5000
**Key Levels:** 5000 support, 5409.69 current level
**Historical Comparison:** null

The KOSPI Composite Index (South Korean market) has experienced a massive 'blow-off top' and is now testing support around 5000. The speaker suggests this could indicate that the hardware trade (linked to semiconductors) is also over, similar to the analysis for SMH.

### 40. US500 (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** downward trend line, potential breakout
**Key Levels:** 6537.6 current level, 6900 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The S&P 500 (US500) is approaching a downward trend line. The speaker indicates that if the market breaks this trend line, it could lead to an upside squeeze. This is a critical juncture for the market's short-term direction.

### 41. SMH (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** head and shoulders, potential V-shape reversal
**Key Levels:** 382.90 current price, 402.57 resistance, 360 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) made a big recovery but is still below the 400+ level discussed previously. The speaker outlines a scenario where SMH could break to a low, then automatically come back up off previous resistance-turned-support, leading to a huge options zone with positive gamma. This chart is considered very interesting for the AI trade.

### 42. SMH/SPY (4-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 0.5887 current level, 0.5723 support, 0.6074 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

This ratio chart (SMH/SPY) shows semiconductors outperforming the S&P 500, maintaining a series of higher highs and higher lows. The speaker emphasizes that semis need to hold up for the broader market. The Dow Theory is mentioned as an important factor, suggesting that if semis continue to outperform, it could signal broader market strength.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The speaker frequently references a 'stagflationary period' similar to the 1960s and 1970s, characterized by high inflation and volatility, and contrasts it with the 2020 market which saw massive central bank stimulus. The current market lacks this stimulus, making it more susceptible to volatility. The 'AI trade' and 'hardware trade' (semiconductors) are identified as key drivers of the US economy, and their performance is crucial for the overall market outlook. The speaker also highlights the importance of earnings season for cycle timing and overall P/E valuations.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch for increased volatility, similar to 2008 and 2020, but without central bank stimulus.
- The bond market (MOVE index) crashing back down is an encouraging sign for bulls.
- The S&P 500 (US500) needs to break the downward trend line and 6612.9 to signal an upside squeeze.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) needs to break above 185.71 for a very strong 'squeezy' rally.
- The decline in retail investor net turnover suggests retail is not aggressively buying the dip, a notable shift.
- The KOSPI's 'blow-off top' could signal the end of the hardware trade.
- The AI trade (semiconductors) is a critical backbone of the US economy; its performance needs to be closely monitored.
- Earnings season will be the ultimate test for market valuations and cycle timing.

## All Instruments Mentioned
MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, AVGO, NVDA, GOOG, META, JPM, V, MS, GS, CSCO, HD, WMT, KO, COST, CAT, XOM, CVX, LLY, JNJ, SPX, US500, MOVE, QQQ, IWM, DIA, USO, XLE, SH, MU, S5FI, S5TH, UKOIL, CF, GER40, BTCUSD, HSI1!, DX1!, GOLD, SILVER, JP01Y, US02Y, US10Y, ITB, KOSPI, SMH

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-04-02 23:03:07*