# This Has Happened Before...
**Date:** 2026-04-02  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPp6MGweNdw)

## Main Thesis
The market is currently in a volatile and choppy period, with several indicators suggesting a potential for further declines, similar to past market crashes and mid-term election years. While some short-term rallies may occur, the overall trend points towards continued uncertainty and potential for deeper corrections, especially if key resistance levels are not broken and geopolitical tensions escalate.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend, resistance at trendline
**Key Levels:** 6600 resistance, 6602.1 most traded zone, 6439.9 support

The US500 is showing a clear downtrend with resistance at 6600 and a descending trendline. The market has been rejected multiple times from this trendline, indicating bearish control. The most traded zone is around 6602.1, which is acting as a strong resistance. The current price is around 6503.2, with support at 6439.9. The overall sentiment is that bears are in control at these levels.

### 2. MOVE (ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** spike in volatility, potential topping pattern
**Key Levels:** 90.1939 support, 114.6551 resistance

The MOVE index, representing bond market volatility, has seen a dramatic spike, reaching levels around 114.6551. This high volatility has implications for stocks and other markets. While it has pulled back slightly, the overall elevated level suggests continued market uncertainty. Historically, sustained high VIX (volatility index) often precedes choppy or further declining markets.

### 3. IYT (iShares Transportation Average ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** potential topping pattern, large transactions
**Key Levels:** 75.27 current price, 70.00 support, 80.00 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** similar large transactions before 2022 crash and GFC

The IYT ETF is showing large dark pool transactions, similar to what occurred before the 2022 crash and the Global Financial Crisis. The chart highlights significant selling pressure around previous highs, with the current price at 75.27. This suggests a potential for a much worse market downturn, as transportation is a key indicator of economic health and consumption. The largest transaction in 20 years was recorded, rivaling GFC levels.

### 4. S&P 500: VIX Falls Below 25 After Staying Above It for At Least 8 Days (historical data since 1990)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** historical market performance after VIX drops
**Key Levels:** VIX below 25
**Historical Comparison:** historical data of S&P 500 forward performance after VIX falls below 25 for at least 8 days

This chart analyzes S&P 500 performance after the VIX falls below 25 following at least 8 days above it. While a drop in VIX might seem positive, historical data suggests that this scenario often leads to choppy markets or further selling. The table below the chart shows a high percentage of negative returns across various timeframes (1 day, 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 1 year) after such events, indicating that volatility may persist or even worsen.

### 5. S&P 500 Forward Performance After Major U.S. Ground Troop Deployments Post-WWII (historical data post-WWII)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** choppy market after deployments
**Key Levels:** 80-200 days struggling periods
**Historical Comparison:** various US ground troop deployments (e.g., Korean War, Lebanon, Gulf War)

This chart examines S&P 500 performance after major US ground troop deployments. Historically, these events often lead to struggling periods for markets, particularly between 80 and 200 trading days. The average decline during these periods was around 15%. Given current geopolitical tensions, this historical pattern suggests a potential for a very choppy market with further selling, rather than a quick recovery.

### 6. SXIME ETF (Mining Stocks) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** descending trendline, potential breakdown
**Key Levels:** 130 resistance, 100 support

Mining stocks (SXIME ETF) are showing a descending trendline and are currently breaking back up, but this is viewed as a potential sign of concern. The chart highlights previous peaks followed by significant drops. The current price is around 111.02, with resistance at 130 and support at 100. This movement could indicate concerns over inflation and costs, as mining stocks often reflect these economic factors. The recent price action suggests a potential for increased volatility.

### 7. S&P 500: Midterm Years with Negative First Quarter (historical data since 1950)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** secondary dips, higher volatility
**Key Levels:** negative Q1
**Historical Comparison:** midterm election years with negative Q1 performance

This chart analyzes S&P 500 performance during midterm election years, specifically when the first quarter is negative. Historically, these years are very volatile and often experience secondary dips (two big sell-offs). When Q1 is negative, the market is bullish only 27% of the time in Q2. This pattern suggests a higher level of volatility and potential for further declines, raising questions about stagflation, recession, or even depression. The market is not making higher highs and higher lows, but rather showing choppy movements.

### 8. XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** relief rally, potential profit-taking
**Key Levels:** 62 resistance, 58.97 current price

The XLE ETF, representing energy stocks, has seen a significant rally but is now showing signs of profit-taking. A large transaction occurred before the relief rally, and the current price is pulling back from recent highs around 62. This suggests that a bigger player might be exiting positions, indicating potential concerns about future growth and consumption. The market is currently at 58.97, and further price action is needed to confirm a clear direction.

### 9. MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows, lower highs
**Key Levels:** 450 resistance, 375 support

Micron Technology (MU) is showing a series of lower lows and lower highs, indicating a declining trend. A large transaction (non-dark pool) was observed, which could suggest that selling in AI stocks might be over, but the overall price action remains bearish. The current price is around 375.67, with resistance at 450 and support at 375. The market is still in decline, and further downward movement is possible.

### 10. S&P 500: SPY Put Volume > 8 million (historical data since 2022)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH (SHORT-TERM)
**Pattern:** massive put volume, potential bottoming
**Key Levels:** put volume > 8 million
**Historical Comparison:** historical S&P 500 performance after high put volume events

This chart highlights instances where SPY put volume exceeded 8 million. Historically, massive put volume tends to bring structure into markets and can signal a potential bottoming. The table below shows that after such events, the S&P 500 often sees positive returns in the short term (1 day, 1 week, 2 weeks). However, the overall market is still in decline, and this indicator alone does not guarantee a sustained recovery. The current put volume is high, suggesting a potential short-term bounce.

### 11. Retail Investor Net Flows into U.S. Individual Stocks (2018-2026)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** declining retail investor flows
**Key Levels:** 0.5 billion turnover

Retail investor net flows into US individual stocks are declining, suggesting that retail traders are not 'buying the dip' as aggressively as in previous years (2020-2021). The 20-day moving average of net turnover is falling, indicating reduced retail participation. This is an important distinction, as retail traders make up a large portion of these markets. The lack of strong retail buying could contribute to further market weakness and volatility.

### 12. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** previous support becoming resistance, downtrend
**Key Levels:** 6575.33 resistance, 6545.80 support, 6205.89 major support

The S&P 500 is showing previous support levels becoming resistance, with the daily 200 moving average also acting as a supply zone. The market came back up to the daily 20 and hit 6600, but then found selling pressure. The current price is around 6575.33, and it is still underneath key points. All these factors need to be broken for a real trend change. The market is currently down even further, indicating continued bearish sentiment.

### 13. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (10-minute)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** descending trendline, engulfing candle
**Key Levels:** 6656.7 options high level, 6612.9 options high level, 6560.0 most traded zone, 6487.4 options low level

On the 10-minute timeframe, the US500 is showing a descending trendline and an engulfing candle, which typically leads to further selling. The market found resistance at 6600 and the most traded zone, confirming the bearish bias. The options high levels for today are at 6656.7 and 6612.9, while the options low level is at 6487.4. The market is currently trading around 6505.9, close to the options low level. If the market closes like this or worse, it suggests continued downward pressure.

### 14. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** engulfing candle, downtrend
**Key Levels:** 6656.7 options high level, 6612.9 options high level, 6506.6 current price, 6487.4 options low level, 6232.9 first support

The daily chart for US500 shows an engulfing candle, indicating strong selling pressure. The market is currently at 6506.6, below the options high levels of 6656.7 and 6612.9, and close to the options low level of 6487.4. The first major support is at 6232.9. The trendline and 6600 level are crucial resistance points. If the market continues to move down, key levels to watch are around 6460 and 6400, primarily due to options activity.

### 15. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (2-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend, options levels as support/resistance
**Key Levels:** 6656.7 options high level, 6612.9 options high level, 6507.0 current price, 6487.4 options low level, 6232.9 first support

The 2-hour chart for US500 reinforces the bearish sentiment, with the market trading below key options high levels and approaching options low levels. The current price is 6507.0, with strong resistance at 6600 and the descending trendline. The options low level at 6487.4 and the first support at 6232.9 are critical. The speaker emphasizes the importance of options expected values as additional support/resistance levels, which have shown good predictive power in previous sessions.

### 16. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (2026-04-01 EST)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** heavy put concentration at lower strike prices, call opening at higher strike prices
**Key Levels:** 6500, 6400, 6300, 6200 put support, 7000 call resistance

The Net GEX chart for SPX options shows a significant concentration of put options at lower strike prices (6500, 6400, 6300, 6200), indicating strong support levels where market makers might hedge. Conversely, there's a notable opening of call options at higher strike prices (6600, 6700), especially over the last 24 hours. This suggests that while there's demand for upside, the market is 'sneaky' and tends to trap people. The speaker warns that this is a typical response to an initial rally, where everyone gets hyped and then hopes and dreams are abolished as resistances are found. The key is to follow the flows and technical levels.

### 17. Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ (2026-04-01 EST)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** call opening at higher strike prices
**Key Levels:** 580 call resistance, 570 put support

Similar to SPX, the Net GEX chart for QQQ shows that people started opening up calls all over the place, particularly at higher strike prices like 580. This is seen as a typical response to an initial rally, where investors get excited and jump in, only to find resistance. The market is described as 'sneaky' and tends to trap people, leading to hopes and dreams being abolished as resistances are found. The key is to follow the flows and technical levels.

### 18. Net GEX All Expirations for NVDA (2026-04-01 EST)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** call opening at higher strike prices
**Key Levels:** 180 call resistance, 170 put support

The Net GEX chart for NVDA reveals massive zones of call options appearing at 180, indicating that many people are jumping in on calls due to the market rally. This is again seen as a typical 'hype' response that often leads to market reversals as resistances are found. The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding technical analysis and following key levels to avoid being trapped by such market movements.

### 19. Net GEX All Expirations for IBIT (2026-04-01 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** put concentration at lower strike prices
**Key Levels:** 42 call resistance, 35 put support, 38 current price

The Net GEX chart for IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) shows a significant concentration of put options at 35, indicating strong support. The current price is 38, with call resistance at 42. While there's a lot of activity around 38, the overall options flow suggests a balance between bullish and bearish sentiment. The speaker notes that 38 has been a key level across the board for Bitcoin options.

### 20. MOVE (ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH (SHORT-TERM)
**Pattern:** spike and pullback in volatility
**Key Levels:** 114.7186 resistance, 90.1939 support
**Historical Comparison:** overlay with S&P 500

The MOVE index is showing a significant spike in volatility, followed by a pullback. This is considered a good sign, as it suggests that the bond markets are starting to find a base. When overlaid with the S&P 500, historical data shows that once the MOVE index gets crushed a little, markets can stabilize. While it could continue to go down (similar to 2022), this is a good first sign of a potential glimmer of hope for markets. The current price is around 102.8127, below the resistance of 114.7186.

### 21. S5TH (S&P 500 Stocks Above 200-Day Average) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** structural capitulation not yet reached
**Key Levels:** 47.71 current percentage

This chart shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200-day moving average. The current reading is 47.71%. The speaker argues that the market has not fully capitulated based on structural capitulation indicators, which would typically involve hitting levels around 30% or lower. This suggests that while there has been a 'flash selling' event, 'peak fear' has not yet been reached, implying that further downside could be possible before a true bottom is formed.

### 22. UKOIL (CFDs on Brent Crude Oil) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM), BEARISH (LONG-TERM IF 115.13 BROKEN)
**Pattern:** spike back up, renewing geopolitical fears
**Key Levels:** 115.13 resistance, 105.89 current price, 100.00 support

UK Oil is spiking back up, currently at 105.89, based on recent remarks from Trump, renewing fears of geopolitical tensions. The major resistance level is 115.13. If this level is broken, the speaker believes markets will 'panic big time.' The current price action shows a bounce from 100.00 support, but the overall trend is still uncertain. The speaker advises watching UK Oil and US Oil very closely for further developments.

### 23. CF (CF Industries Holdings, Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** pullbacks, drop in agriculture/fertilizers
**Key Levels:** 140 resistance, 127.98 current price, 95.59 support

CF Industries, a fertilizer company, is experiencing pullbacks, with the price currently at 127.98. This indicates a drop in agriculture and fertilizer-related stocks. The market had been rallying but is now seeing some selling pressure from recent highs around 140. This suggests that someone might be taking profits or reassessing future prospects, reflecting broader concerns in the agricultural sector.

### 24. XLE (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** volatility entered, uncertainty
**Key Levels:** 62 resistance, 58.97 current price, 50.45 support
**Historical Comparison:** first time below 4-hour 20 since January

The XLE ETF is showing that volatility has now entered the energy markets, with the price dropping below the 4-hour 20 moving average for the first time since January. This signifies increased uncertainty, as people are not sure if the market will continue to go up. The current price is 58.97, pulling back from highs around 62. Someone is likely taking profits, and the market is reassessing its future direction.

### 25. GER40 (German 40 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Wyckoff-like distribution, failure to break resistance
**Key Levels:** 23051.8 support, 22926.5 current price, 22500 support

The German 40 Index (GER40) still looks like a Wyckoff distribution pattern, as it has not broken above key resistances. The market is currently at 22926.5, below the 23051.8 support level. This suggests that someone is likely taking profits and reassessing the market's future. The charts reflect this directly, indicating continued bearish pressure and a lack of conviction for sustained upward movement.

### 26. HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** daily 20 as resistance, early sign of turning around
**Key Levels:** 26226 resistance, 25015 current price, 24985 support

The Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI1!) is showing the daily 20 moving average acting as a significant resistance. The market is currently at 25015, below the 26226 resistance. This could be an early sign that markets are turning around, as everything is synergizing to resistance. The speaker notes that everything is on 'tentahooks' and advises caution, as Wall Street's flow is often better than general market sentiment.

### 27. TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** daily 20 as resistance, lower lows, lower highs
**Key Levels:** 440 resistance, 381.26 current price, 376.66 support

Tesla (TSLA) is showing the daily 20 moving average acting as strong resistance, with the market consistently making lower lows and lower highs. The current price is 381.26, below the 440 resistance. This indicates a clear bearish trend. The speaker emphasizes the synergy across various markets, with everything pointing to resistance, suggesting that bulls won't be excited until key levels are broken.

### 28. DX1! (US Dollar Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs, higher lows
**Key Levels:** 103.300 resistance, 100.250 resistance, 99.790 current price, 98.680 support

The US Dollar Index Futures (DX1!) is currently making higher highs and higher lows, indicating a bullish trend. The current price is 99.790, with resistance at 100.250 and 103.300. The speaker refers to this as the 'world's biggest hedge' and will track it closely. The overall structure suggests continued strength in the dollar, which can have implications for other markets.

### 29. GOLD (XAUUSD) (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** stabilized, volatile in range
**Key Levels:** 4726.77 resistance, 4675.83 current price, 4547.43 support (daily 200)

Gold (XAUUSD) broke through to a 4700+ high but has since stabilized. The current price is 4675.83, with resistance at 4726.77. The daily 200 moving average is acting as support around 4547.43. While Gold held up 'okay' until the announcement, it is now stabilized but still volatile within its range. The speaker notes that Gold and Silver are currently stabilized but remain volatile.

### 30. UKOIL (CFDs on Brent Crude Oil) (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** volatile in range
**Key Levels:** 115.35 resistance, 105.92 current price

UK Oil is currently trading at 105.92, within a volatile range. The major resistance is at 115.35. The market is stabilized but still showing significant price swings. The speaker reiterates the importance of watching UK Oil and US Oil closely, as breaking through 115.13 could lead to 'panic big time' in markets.

### 31. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows, lower highs
**Key Levels:** 190 resistance, 175.75 current price, 169.88 major support

NVIDIA (NVDA) is showing a clear bearish trend with lower lows and lower highs, and the daily 20 moving average acting as resistance. The current price is 175.75, with major support at 169.88. This suggests that the AI trade is still at risk. The speaker emphasizes that there are no series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating continued downward pressure.

### 32. KOSPI (KOSPI Composite Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** sharp drop, potential topping
**Key Levels:** 6400 resistance, 5278.44 current price, 4800 support

The KOSPI Composite Index (South Korean market) looks 'really bad' according to the speaker. It has seen a significant rally on hardware stocks but has recently been 'crushed,' suggesting that someone might have insider information. The current price is 5278.44, with resistance at 6400. This sharp drop after a rally indicates potential topping and significant risk in this market.

### 33. SMH/SPY (SMH vs SPY ratio) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** weakness in semiconductors relative to S&P 500
**Key Levels:** 0.5983 current ratio

The SMH/SPY ratio, comparing semiconductor performance to the broader S&P 500, shows some weakness in semiconductors. While not a complete breakdown, the ratio is not making higher highs, indicating relative underperformance. This suggests that the AI trade, heavily reliant on semiconductors, might be losing some momentum or facing headwinds.

### 34. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** breakdown from trendline, potential head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 402.57 resistance, 392.02 current price, 317.99 support

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has been incredibly resilient but is now showing signs of weakness. It broke below a key trendline and is currently trading at 392.02, below the 402.57 resistance. If it breaks through 402+, it could signal further upside, but for now, it's looking worrying. The market is not making higher highs and higher lows, and the current structure suggests a potential for further declines.

### 35. ITB (iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** struggling, debt markets looking weak
**Key Levels:** 109.17 resistance, 91.02 current price, 87.06 support

The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) is still struggling, indicating weakness in the debt markets. The current price is 91.02, below the 109.17 resistance. This suggests that the housing sector is facing headwinds, which can be a broader indicator of economic health. The speaker notes that there's more analysis coming on the 'Easter Special' this weekend, implying continued scrutiny of this sector.

### 36. BTCUSD (Bitcoin/TetherUS) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** bear flag, potential breakdown
**Key Levels:** 77145.27 resistance, 72845.36 resistance, 66863.18 current price, 65170.99 support, 57250.20 support, 42330.03 target if breakdown

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is forming a bear flag pattern, currently trading at 66863.18. The key resistance levels are 72845.36 and 77145.27. If Bitcoin breaks down from this flag, the target could be as low as 42330.03. The speaker notes that bulls won't be excited until it gets through 72k+. The current structure, despite being at a demand level on the left-hand side, looks weak in the shorter timeframes. Everything is on 'tentahooks,' and the S&P 500's performance (6600 resistance) is a major factor influencing crypto.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The video discusses several macro regimes and intermarket comparisons. It highlights the implications of high bond market volatility (MOVE index) on stocks, suggesting choppy markets or further selling. Historical comparisons to US ground troop deployments post-WWII indicate struggling periods for the S&P 500. The analysis of midterm election years with negative first quarters points to higher volatility and potential for stagflation or recession. The speaker also connects mining stocks to inflation and geopolitical tensions, and transportation ETFs to future growth and consumption. The overall theme is one of increasing uncertainty and potential for economic downturns, with various markets showing synergistic bearish signals.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch 6600 on US500 as a major resistance level; if it breaks, it could lead to further selling.
- Be cautious of choppy markets and potential further selling, as indicated by VIX and historical patterns after ground troop deployments.
- Monitor transportation ETFs (IYT) for signs of economic weakness, as large transactions similar to past crashes are appearing.
- Be aware of the historical tendency for midterm election years with negative Q1 to experience secondary dips and higher volatility.
- Watch UK Oil and US Oil closely, as a break above 115.13 could trigger significant market panic.
- Be nimble in trading due to increased volatility and uncertainty across various markets.
- For Bitcoin, bulls won't be excited until it breaks above 72k+, and a breakdown from the current bear flag could target 42k+.
- Risk management is crucial, especially during public holidays, as market gaps can occur.

## All Instruments Mentioned
US500, MOVE, IYT, S&P 500, VIX, SXIME ETF, XLE, MU, SPY, NVDA, IBIT, UKOIL, CF, GER40, HSI1!, TSLA, DX1!, GOLD, KOSPI, SMH, ITB, BTCUSD, QQQ

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-04-02 23:00:59*