# It’s Been 11 Years Since We last Saw This…
**Date:** 2026-04-06  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNzMMsZsVcI)

## Main Thesis
The market is showing signs of financial stress, rising inflation, and decelerating growth, reminiscent of past crises, suggesting potential for significant volatility and a possible recession, despite some short-term relief rallies.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. USM2 (United States Money Supply M2) (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** sharp decline followed by a sharp rise
**Key Levels:** 20.74T, 22.67T
**Historical Comparison:** 11 years since subprime and private debt markets were discussed in this way

The chart shows M2 money supply declining significantly from 2022 to early 2023, then rocketing upwards into 2026, reaching 22.67T. This is compared to 11 years ago when subprime and private debt markets were last discussed in such a way, indicating potential inflation issues.

### 2. DCOILBRENTEU (Crude Oil Prices: Brent - Europe) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** skyrocketing prices
**Key Levels:** 121.88

The chart shows Brent crude oil prices for Europe skyrocketing, with the current price at 121.88. The speaker suggests it's potentially set to skyrocket once again, contributing to inflation concerns.

### 3. ES1! (S&P 500 E-mini Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downtrend with potential bottoming
**Key Levels:** 6,583.25, 6,300 support, 6,700 resistance

The S&P 500 E-mini Futures chart shows a significant downtrend, with the price currently at 6,583.25. The speaker highlights potential support around 6,300 and resistance around 6,700, noting the market's current volatility.

### 4. MOVE (ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** sharp spike in volatility
**Key Levels:** 84.4145, 110 resistance

The MOVE index shows a sharp spike in bond market volatility, with the current reading at 84.4145, approaching 110. The speaker emphasizes the need to pay more attention to bonds than ever before, as high volatility often precedes market downturns.

### 5. Redemption Requests at Private Credit BDCs (quarterly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** accelerating redemption requests

A bar chart illustrates redemption requests for various private credit BDCs across Q3 2025, Q4 2025, and Q1 2026. The speaker points out a clear trend of increasing redemption requests, indicating that more people are trying to get their money out of these funds. This is a problem because many major banks are exposed to these illiquid private equity funds.

### 6. Subprime Borrowers are Under Financial Stress (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rising delinquency rates
**Key Levels:** 8% (pre-GFC), 10% (current)
**Historical Comparison:** Global Financial Crisis (2008-2010)

This line chart shows the subprime loan delinquency rate as a percentage of outstanding loans. The rate is rising significantly, surpassing levels seen before the Global Financial Crisis and reaching levels last seen over a decade ago. This, combined with rising 30-year mortgage rates (over 6%) and increasing cost of living, indicates growing financial stress among subprime borrowers.

### 7. SPY (S&P 500) vs Put Volume (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BULLISH (SHORT-TERM)
**Pattern:** high put volume often precedes market bottoms
**Historical Comparison:** past instances of high put volume (2022, 2023, 2024, 2025)

The chart displays SPY price action alongside put volume. Put volumes have reached their third-highest on record in the last 5-6 years. Historically, high put volume often signals a bottoming effect in the market, leading to a relief rally. While not always the absolute bottom, it has often marked temporary lows in recent years.

### 8. S&P 500: AAII Bearish Sentiment Rises Above 54 After Staying Below for At Least 9 Months (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BULLISH (SHORT-TERM)
**Pattern:** bearish sentiment often precedes upward flow
**Key Levels:** 54% bearish sentiment
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 forward performance since 1987

This chart shows the S&P 500 alongside the AAII Bearish Sentiment. When bearish sentiment rises above 54% after staying below for at least 9 months, historically, the market tends to see upward flow. The table below the chart shows that 6 months later, markets are more bullish 87% of the time, suggesting a potential relief rally, but also acknowledging the possibility of a 'dead cat bounce' in a stagflationary or recessionary environment.

### 9. S&P 500 Forward 12-Month P/E Ratio: 10 Years (monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** P/E ratio approaching historical averages
**Key Levels:** 20.0 (5-year avg), 19.0 (10-year avg), 16.0-18.0 (dip buy zone)
**Historical Comparison:** past P/E ratio movements

The chart shows the S&P 500's forward 12-month P/E ratio over 10 years. The current P/E ratio is coming down to what would be considered a 'not too bad' pricing for the index historically, especially when it drops below 20. When it hits the 16-18 range, it has historically been a dip-buying opportunity. The speaker notes that the market is becoming 'a little bit of a better priced market' mainly due to big tech stocks declining.

### 10. Stagflation (Atlanta Fed GDPNow GDP Forecast (L1) vs US Breakeven 2 Year (R1)) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** decoupling of growth and inflation

This chart illustrates the Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast (growth) and the US Breakeven 2 Year (inflation). Growth is decelerating while inflation is rising, creating a 'decoupling' scenario. The speaker suggests this could lead to significant pressures on the economy and potentially a recession, even if not full-blown stagflation.

### 11. Strait of Hormuz Tanker Vessel Crossings (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** sharp decline in crossings followed by slight recovery

The chart shows the number of tanker vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz. There was a sharp drop to almost zero crossings in early 2026, followed by a slight recovery to a few crossings. The speaker interprets this as a 'market hope' that things might be improving, but also acknowledges the market's tendency to 'climb the wall of worry'.

### 12. S&P 500: Midterm Years with Negative First Quarter (quarterly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** negative Q1 in midterm years often leads to volatility
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 forward performance since 1950

This chart shows S&P 500 performance in midterm election years following a negative first quarter. Historically, Q2 in such years is only up 27% of the time, suggesting significant volatility ahead. The speaker emphasizes the need to pay close attention to technicals, as the structure coming into Q1 suggests high volatility.

### 13. S&P 500 vs High Yield Credit Spreads (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** increasing credit spreads correlate with negative returns
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 performance since 1998

The chart compares the S&P 500 with ICE BofA US High Yield OAS. When high-yield credit spreads are increasing (pink shaded areas), the annualized return for the S&P 500 is typically negative (-2.50%). The speaker notes that credit spreads are currently spiking, indicating problems 'underneath the hood' of the markets.

### 14. IYT (iShares U.S. Transportation Average ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** multiple dark pool transactions at peaks
**Key Levels:** $20 support, $30 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** Global Financial Crisis (2008), 2021-2022 issues

The IYT chart shows the transportation average ETF. The speaker highlights multiple large dark pool transactions (marked with diamonds) at or near market peaks, including during the GFC, 2021-2022, and currently in 2026. This suggests that 'smart money' might be exiting, which is a significant concern for the 'old school backbone' of the markets.

### 15. IYT (iShares U.S. Transportation Average ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** multiple large dark pool transactions at peaks
**Key Levels:** $75 resistance, $74 support, $72 support

A closer look at the IYT daily chart shows recent large dark pool transactions (marked with circles) near the current peaks. The speaker notes that the 5th, 4th, and 9th largest transactions have occurred recently. While accumulation is possible, if these markets break down, it would be a big sign of concern, especially with homebuilders and mortgage stress.

### 16. USO (United States Oil Fund LP) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** temporary peaks in oil prices
**Key Levels:** $115 support, $130 resistance

The USO chart shows the United States Oil Fund. The speaker points out temporary peaks in oil prices, with current levels around $130. The concern is that EU oil (Brent) is accelerating, decoupling from UK oil (Brent), suggesting that futures markets are predicting worse conditions for oil in the EU.

### 17. DX1! (U.S. Dollar Index Futures) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** strong weekly close with multiple wicks
**Key Levels:** 100.250 resistance, 98.680 support

The US Dollar Index Futures chart shows a strong weekly close, with multiple wicks indicating pressure at the 100.250 level. While it barely broke out on the daily, it hasn't on the weekly. These wicks suggest a 'bid' coming through. If the dollar goes high, it could lead to continued volatility and downside pressure in other markets, as it's seen as the largest hedge and safe haven.

### 18. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** monthly wick rejection
**Key Levels:** 6,400 support, 6,800 resistance

The monthly SPX chart shows a nice wick rejection by the close, holding the 6,400 level. It hit into a couple of key zones but not 'amazing areas'.

### 19. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** weekly bounce back
**Key Levels:** 6,400 support, 6,600 resistance

The weekly SPX chart shows a bounce back and a relatively strong close. This is the 'real market' chart.

### 20. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** resistance at daily 20-period moving average
**Key Levels:** 6,800 resistance, 6,400 support

The daily SPX chart shows that the index did not manage to close above the daily 20-period moving average, finding resistance there four times. This indicates continued downward pressure.

### 21. US500 (S&P 500 Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downtrend with relief rally
**Key Levels:** 6,693.9 (Options High Level), 6,474.6 (Options Low Level), 6,600 (most traded area)

The daily US500 futures chart shows a downtrend with a recent relief rally. The most traded area is around 6,600, which also acts as a key trendline resistance. Bulls will be looking for a push through 6,650, a pull-down, and then a rally. This would signal a change in trend.

### 22. US500 (S&P 500 Index Futures) (2-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation below resistance
**Key Levels:** 6,693.9 (Options High Level), 6,474.6 (Options Low Level), 6,560-6,600 (most traded area)

The 2-hour US500 futures chart shows slight gains through 6,530, with a decent bottom on both Nasdaq and S&P. However, the most traded area (6,560-6,600) still presents a lot of pressure from the street. A breakout above this zone would be significant.

### 23. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** heavy put concentration below spot price
**Key Levels:** 6,500 (put support), 7,000 (call resistance), 6,583 (spot price)

This options chart shows a heavy concentration of puts at 6,500, 6,400, 6,300, and 6,200, indicating strong support levels. Calls are rising heavily if the market can get through 6,600, which could lead to a negative gamma to positive gamma switch.

### 24. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (multiple expirations) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** call concentration at higher levels, put concentration at lower levels
**Key Levels:** 5,800-6,000 (call resistance), 4,500-4,600 (put support)

This chart shows Net GEX for SPX across multiple expirations. There are a lot of calls at levels you would expect, and a lot of puts further out. If markets regain these levels, they could enter positive gamma and move forward.

### 25. Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** put concentration below spot price
**Key Levels:** 595 (call resistance), 570 (put support), 585 (spot price)

This options chart for QQQ shows put levels at 570 and 580. If the market can move above 590, it could enter positive gamma.

### 26. Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ (multiple expirations) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** put concentration around current price
**Key Levels:** 580 (put levels)

This chart shows Net GEX for QQQ across multiple expirations. Put levels are pretty much right around or just underneath the current price of 585.

### 27. Net GEX All Expirations for IBIT (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** put concentration below spot price
**Key Levels:** 42 (call resistance), 35 (put support), 37.97 (spot price)

This options chart for IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) shows put levels at 38, 37, and 35, which are important zones. 42 is where more positive gamma would take over. Bitcoin is currently struggling in a range.

### 28. MORTGAGE30US (30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** break to the upside
**Key Levels:** 6% (previous low), 6.5% (current)
**Historical Comparison:** 2023 highs

The chart shows the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average in the US. The trend has changed for the worse, with a clear break to the upside, moving from 6% to 6.5%. While not as high as 2023, it indicates a worsening market for mortgage holders.

### 29. USM2 (United States Money Supply M2) (monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** liquidity crisis vs inflation
**Key Levels:** 20.74T, 22.67T
**Historical Comparison:** previous tapering due to stimulus checks

The chart shows M2 money supply. The speaker contrasts the current situation (private equity crisis, bonds freaking out, market finding support) with previous periods of massive inflation due to stimulus checks. The question is whether the current M2 rise will lead to higher prices (inflation) or is a sign of significant concern (liquidity crisis). The speaker advises not to pay too much attention to these charts alone, as liquidity is not 'really going up as much as you might think'.

### 30. MOVE (ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** sharp drop in volatility after acceleration
**Key Levels:** 0.70% (previous high)

The MOVE index shows a sharp drop in volatility after an acceleration. This 'crush' in the MOVE index could suggest that the stock market is trying to find a 'hold level' for now. This is seen as a good sign, indicating a potential base, though it will be narrative-driven.

### 31. S5TH (S&P 500 Stocks Above 200-Day Average) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** potential base formation
**Key Levels:** 48.31% (current)

The chart shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day average. The current level is 48.31%. This is not a capitulation level, but it is looking a 'little bit better for a potential base'.

### 32. S5FI (S&P 500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** temporary bottoming
**Key Levels:** 20.0 (temporary bottom), 2.74% (capitulation)

The chart shows the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day average. The market hit into the 20s, which is synonymous with temporary dead cat bounces or bottoms for the acceleration towards the downside. This explains why the market has stabilized a bit.

### 33. UKOIL (CFDs on Brent Crude Oil) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** rally towards resistance
**Key Levels:** 115.13 (resistance), 111.19 (current)

The UKOIL chart shows Brent crude oil prices at 111.19, rallying towards the 115.13 resistance. This is a concern as it indicates rising oil prices.

### 34. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** pushing towards resistance
**Key Levels:** 115 (resistance), 113.524 (current)

The USOIL chart shows WTI crude oil prices at 113.524, pushing towards the 115 resistance. This is another indicator of rising oil prices.

### 35. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rally towards historical highs
**Key Levels:** 128 (2022 high), 150 (2008 high)
**Historical Comparison:** 2022 and 2008 oil price spikes

The weekly USOIL chart shows prices rallying towards 128 (2022 high) and 150 (2008 high). The speaker warns that if prices hit 150, 'we're in big trouble'.

### 36. DCOILBRENTEU (Crude Oil Prices: Brent - Europe) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** higher high
**Key Levels:** 121.88 (current high)

The daily DCOILBRENTEU chart shows that Brent oil prices for Europe have already hit a higher high, currently at 121.88. This is a problem as it will lead to higher costs across the board.

### 37. XLE (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** volatility after higher highs and lows
**Key Levels:** 62 (resistance), 59.26 (current)

The XLE chart shows the energy sector ETF. After a series of higher highs and higher lows, volatility has entered the market, and dark pool trades suggest that the largest move for energy stocks may have just happened. The speaker notes that 62 is a key level to watch for a real downside move.

### 38. XLE (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** volatility after rally
**Key Levels:** 59.25 (current)

The daily XLE chart shows that after rallying up a lot, volatility has entered the market, and the price is back at the daily 20-period moving average. The structure seems to be holding at 66, which is the 'battle zone' between bulls and bears.

### 39. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 402.57 (resistance)

The SMH chart shows the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. It's currently showing lower lows and lower highs. The speaker states that if it gets through 403, the market might be truly recovering, but most people won't understand why. This suggests a potential relief rally at that point.

### 40. IYT (iShares U.S. Transportation Average ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** clusters of massive transactions at peaks
**Key Levels:** 75.28 (current)
**Historical Comparison:** previous periods of massive transactions

The weekly IYT chart shows clusters of massive transactions at market peaks, similar to previous periods where things eventually went 'really bad'. This indicates that the 'backbone' of the transportation market is showing signs of weakness, which is a macro concern.

### 41. KOSPI (KOSPI Composite Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** potential topping pattern
**Key Levels:** 5,084.85 (support), 5,475.63 (current)

The KOSPI chart shows the South Korean market. The speaker believes it has probably topped out in the 'hardware trade' (AI-related buying). While some might see a double bottom as bullish, the speaker views the overall pattern as a topping formation, suggesting a potential pullback in time.

### 42. ITB (iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** weakness after previous rallies
**Key Levels:** 90.25 (current)

The ITB chart shows the US Home Construction ETF. The speaker notes that homebuilders are looking weak, which is an early indicator of potential problems in the debt markets. This is a significant concern for the overall economy.

### 43. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** double top, lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 24,163.3 (resistance 1), 22,723.2 (first support), 21,491.7 (second support)

The NAS100 chart shows a double top pattern, followed by a series of lower lows and lower highs. It's currently at a decision point, similar to the S&P 500. It hit into the first demand zone, and if it keeps going down, it's likely headed towards the 21,500 level. The market is still in a downtrend on this major index.

### 44. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** bearish flag or accumulation
**Key Levels:** 65,170.99 (support), 72,000 (resistance)

The BTCUSDT chart shows Bitcoin. The speaker identifies a potential bearish flag pattern, which if it breaks down, could lead to prices around 40,000-42,000. However, Bitcoin is currently 'hodling on' and just barely holding the 65,170.99 support zone. The speaker also acknowledges the possibility of accumulation within this pattern.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The video discusses a 'liquidity crisis' rather than just inflation, with growth decelerating and inflation rising, creating a 'decoupling' scenario that could lead to recession. It also highlights the historical tendency of midterm election years with negative first quarters to be highly volatile, and the correlation between increasing high-yield credit spreads and negative S&P 500 returns. The 'hardware trade' (AI-related stocks) and the transportation sector are identified as early indicators of broader market health.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Pay attention to everything in the markets, especially private credit, EU oil, and bonds.
- Be aware of rising subprime loan delinquencies and financial stress.
- High put volume on SPY often precedes a relief rally, but could be a 'dead cat bounce' in a stagflationary environment.
- Midterm election years with negative Q1 tend to be highly volatile, with Q2 often being negative.
- Watch for a break above 6,600 on the S&P 500 for a potential trend change.
- Monitor the US Dollar Index (DX1!) as a safe haven; if it goes high, markets might find volatility to the downside.
- If USOIL hits $150, 'we're in big trouble'.
- Watch 6,200 on the S&P 500 for a real downside move.
- Energy stocks (XLE) may have seen their largest move already, with volatility entering the market.
- KOSPI (South Korean market) may have topped out in the hardware/AI trade.
- Homebuilders (ITB) looking weak could signal problems in debt markets.
- Nasdaq (NAS100) is at a decision point; a break below current support could lead to 21,500.
- Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) is barely holding on; a breakdown from the current flag pattern could lead to 40,000-42,000.

## All Instruments Mentioned
USM2, DCOILBRENTEU, ES1!, MOVE, SPY, IBIT, MORTGAGE30US, DX1!, SPX, US500, QQQ, USOIL, UKOIL, XLE, S5TH, S5FI, SMH, IYT, KOSPI, ITB, NAS100, BTCUSDT, TSLA, GOLD, NVDA, SILVER, GER40, HSI1!

---
*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-04-07 23:07:07*