# Did Wall Street Know?
**Date:** 2026-04-08  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCWqA9gcm-U)

## Main Thesis
The markets are experiencing massive moves due to a two-week ceasefire impacting oil prices and significant dark pool activity, suggesting a potential bottom in markets and further rallies by mid-year, despite underlying macro concerns.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH (SHORT-TERM)
**Pattern:** sharp decline from recent highs
**Key Levels:** 118.189 resistance, 96.203 current price

The chart shows a sharp decline in crude oil prices from around $118, currently at $96.203. This massive move is attributed to a two-week ceasefire, crashing oil prices and sending other markets skyrocketing. The speaker highlights this as a significant event with big implications for dark pool activity.

### 2. MAGS (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (POTENTIAL)
**Pattern:** potential bottoming, breaking lower highs/lows
**Key Levels:** 60.16 post-market, 58.29 current price

The chart for MAGS shows a recent large transaction, identified as the fourth largest Magnificent Seven trade ever recorded. The price is currently at $58.29, with a post-market price of $60.16. The speaker suggests that the market is starting to break from a series of lower highs and lower lows, potentially indicating a bottom and a move towards a higher high.

### 3. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (POTENTIAL)
**Pattern:** potential bottoming, breaking lower highs/lows
**Key Levels:** 414.45 post-market, 402.23 resistance, 399.90 support

The SMH chart shows recent large transactions, with the speaker noting even bigger ones appearing on semiconductors. The price is currently around $399.90, with a post-market price of $414.45. The speaker questions if this indicates a market bottom and potential rallies by mid-year, suggesting a break from lower highs and lows towards a higher high.

### 4. Dated Brent (Crude Oil) (yearly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH (CRITICAL LEVELS)
**Pattern:** hitting critical previous highs
**Key Levels:** 144.460 current price, previous highs around 140-145
**Historical Comparison:** Global Financial Crisis highs, 2022 highs

This chart from Holger shows Dated Brent crude oil hitting critical levels, similar to previous highs seen during the Global Financial Crisis and in 2022. The current price is $144.460. The speaker emphasizes that both WTI and Dated Brent were at critical levels, indicating a significant market juncture.

### 5. Strait of Hormuz Tanker Vessel Crossings (daily (2024-2026))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BULLISH (SUPPLY INCREASE)
**Pattern:** sharp decline in crossings
**Key Levels:** significant drop in March 2026

The chart illustrates a sharp drop in tanker vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026. The speaker links this to the market's anticipation of a ceasefire and increased oil supply, which likely contributed to the recent oil price crash and subsequent market rallies. This chart is from Steno Research, Bloomberg, and Macrobond.

### 6. MAGS (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breaking out of lower highs/lows
**Key Levels:** 66.00 resistance, 54.00 support

This chart from Volume Leaders shows the fourth largest transaction ever recorded on the Magnificent Seven ETF. The market is now attempting to break from a series of lower highs and lower lows to establish a higher high, indicating a potential upward trend.

### 7. SOXL (Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breaking out of lower highs/lows
**Key Levels:** 62.34 current price, 50.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** previous rallies after large transactions

The SOXL chart shows massive transactions, including the second largest ever recorded. Historically, the first and fifth largest transactions led to further rallies. The market has likely broken through a higher high, suggesting confirmed breakouts to the upside.

### 8. MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** reversal from a sell-off
**Key Levels:** 396.00 current price, 320.00 support

The MU chart shows that the first largest transaction led to a sell-off, while the third one is now leading to a buy. The speaker notes that markets tend to 'climb the wall of worry' despite big macro concerns, indicating a potential upward movement.

### 9. SPYM (SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breaking through downward trendline
**Key Levels:** 79.15 current price, 77.00 support

The SPYM chart shows that the market has regained above previous levels, breaking through a downward trendline that previously indicated bearish control. This suggests the beginning of bulls taking full control of the markets.

### 10. Semiconductors (SMH) (63 days)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** momentum thrust leading to stabilization/recovery
**Key Levels:** average return +12.11% after 63 days
**Historical Comparison:** since 2011

This chart from Duality Research shows that after a 'momentum thrust' in semiconductors (like the one seen last week), the market generally stabilizes or sees better action. The average return after 63 days is +12.11%, with an 89% win rate since 2011. Semiconductors are considered the 'backbone' or 'modern-day Dow Theory' of the market.

### 11. S&P 500 (3-month rolling (2005-2025))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH (FEAR INDICATOR)
**Pattern:** spikes in ETF inflows
**Key Levels:** high inflows into money market & cash-like ETFs

This macro chart from macrocharts.com shows massive inflows into money market and cash-like ETFs, which typically indicates fear in the market. This fear can create temporary bases in the market.

### 12. S&P 500 (SPY Put Volume) (daily (2022-2026))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BULLISH (TEMPORARY BASES)
**Pattern:** spikes in put volume
**Key Levels:** put volume > 8 million

This chart from Subu Trade shows S&P 500 put volume exceeding 8 million, which has historically led to temporary bases in the market. The speaker notes that when key levels are reached, especially major ones, and they sit there for a couple of sessions, the subsequent break becomes ballistic.

### 13. S&P 500 (Price vs. Forward P/E Ratio) (daily (2023-2026))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH (VALUATION CONCERN)
**Pattern:** declining forward P/E ratio
**Key Levels:** -18.4% forward P/E discount

This chart from Duality Research shows that the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio has declined more than expected, with a discount of about -18.4%. The market itself is down 9.1%, indicating a different market dynamic compared to last year. Earnings season is approaching, which will be crucial for determining if the market is late cycle or will continue to rise.

### 14. S&P 500 (Forward P/E & Subsequent 10-Year Returns) (historical)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH (VALUATION CONCERN)
**Pattern:** inverse relationship between P/E and future returns
**Key Levels:** various P/E ranges and associated returns

This chart from Polycarp FX illustrates the relationship between the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio and subsequent 10-year returns. It shows that buying in high P/E ranges (e.g., 20s-30s+) leads to poor returns, while buying in lower P/E ranges (e.g., 9x-18x) yields better returns. This reinforces the idea that current valuations are a concern.

### 15. S&P 500 (Consecutive Days Below 20-Day Moving Average) (daily (2000-2026))

**Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM)
**Pattern:** recovery above 20-day moving average
**Key Levels:** 20-day moving average

This chart from BlueKurtic Market Insights shows the S&P 500's performance after closing above the 20-day moving average following 25+ days below it. The S&P 500 recovered above the 200-day moving average and the 20-day moving average. Historically, a week after regaining the 20-day MA, the market is 67% bullish. The speaker expects continued volatility.

### 16. S&P 500 (Midterm Years with Negative First Quarter) (monthly (since 1950))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/VOLATILE
**Pattern:** volatile recovery after negative Q1
**Key Levels:** negative Q1 performance
**Historical Comparison:** various midterm years

This chart from BlueKurtic Market Insights analyzes S&P 500 performance in midterm years with a negative first quarter. While the market often rallies after a bad Q1, Q2 is historically only about 30% bullish. The speaker notes that the period between 60-100 days after a negative Q1 often sees structural bottoms, followed by volatile rallies.

### 17. Earnings Releases by Implied Movement (Week of April 6th)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** scatter plot of implied movement
**Key Levels:** various implied movements for different companies

This chart from earnings-watcher.com shows earnings releases by implied movement for the week of April 6th. The speaker emphasizes that earnings are crucial and that the current situation is not the end, but rather a phase allowing for movement in the market, especially with oil. Many ships are expected to move in the next 24-48 hours, indicating a news-driven event.

### 18. Redemption Requests at Private Credit BDCs (quarterly (Q3 2023 - Q1 2026))

**Bias:** BEARISH (CREDIT MARKET CONCERN)
**Pattern:** rising bars of redemption requests
**Key Levels:** increasing redemption requests

This chart from ZeroHedge shows redemption requests at Private Credit BDCs, indicating a problem in the private equity credit markets. The trend shows increasing requests, meaning people are trying to remove their money due to these funds being partially illiquid. Blue Owl Technology, in particular, is seeing epic redemption requests. This could lead to bigger problems.

### 19. IYT (iShares U.S. Transportation Average ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH (POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE DECLINE)
**Pattern:** dark pool sweep, potential for prolonged consolidation
**Key Levels:** previous highs and lows
**Historical Comparison:** 2021-2022 period

The IYT chart shows a 'dark pool sweep' in transportation averages. The speaker notes that these are not instantaneous moves and can sit for months, similar to the 2021-2022 period. This suggests that while there might be temporary stability, a significant downturn could still be on the horizon.

### 20. CPI Inflation During Major Oil Supply Disruptions (historical)

**Bias:** BEARISH (INFLATION CONCERN)
**Pattern:** inflation spikes following oil supply disruptions
**Key Levels:** spikes in inflation during disruptions
**Historical Comparison:** Arab Oil Embargo, Iranian Revolution, Iraq Invades Kuwait, Russia-Ukraine War, US-Iran War

This chart from BlueKurtic Market Insights shows CPI inflation during major oil supply disruptions. Historically, such disruptions have led to spikes in inflation. The speaker suspects that the current situation will also lead to inflation hitting the middle and lower classes, and that upcoming CPI reports will reveal the extent of this inflation.

### 21. Bitcoin (Large Speculators' Net Position) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM)
**Pattern:** large speculator activity preceding price bottoms
**Key Levels:** spikes in net position correlating with price bottoms

This chart from The Market Stats shows Bitcoin's price alongside large speculators' net positions. Historically, when large traders get excited and increase their net positions, it has often marked at least a temporary bottom in Bitcoin's price. This is similar to the put volume seen in the broader market.

### 22. DXY (U.S. Dollar Index Futures) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** breakdown from higher highs/lows
**Key Levels:** 100.250 resistance, 98.680 current price, 98.435 support

The DXY chart shows the US Dollar being 'crushed back down.' The speaker notes that while there were wick rejections, the dollar index was looking to break through 100.30. However, with news announcements, the market has broken below a series of higher highs and higher lows, currently barely holding above 98.435. A break below this level could trap long positions.

### 23. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** bounce back from lows, hitting trendline support
**Key Levels:** 6616.84 current price, 6534.5 support

The SPX chart shows the S&P 500 bouncing back up over the last 24 hours. The speaker highlights a trendline hit and support during the session at 6534.5. This indicates a significant positive gamma coming into the markets, suggesting an upward movement.

### 24. US500 (US 500 Index) (10m)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout from consolidation, trendline hit and support
**Key Levels:** 6761.5 current price, 6534.5 support

This intraday chart of the US500 shows a massive move, with the index moving up to 6761.5. The speaker points out a trendline hit and support during the session at 6534.5, which was a critical small timeframe change of trend towards the downside that was then reversed. The market broke towards the upside, indicating a strong bullish momentum.

### 25. SPX (Net GEX All Expirations) (2026-04-06 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BULLISH (OPTIONS MARKET DYNAMICS)
**Pattern:** gamma exposure profile
**Key Levels:** 6700 call resistance, 6500 put support, 6611 spot price

This chart from Menthor Q shows the Net GEX (Gamma Exposure) for all SPX expirations. The speaker notes that 6800 is likely to become a massive call wall. Previous put walls at 6500 and 6400 were significant. The market has repriced very quickly, with expirations at 6600 being a key level. This indicates how fast markets adjust to new information.

### 26. MOVE (BofA Merrill Lynch Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (DE-RISKING)
**Pattern:** sharp decline from recent highs
**Key Levels:** 23.23% previous high, -10.69% current change

The MOVE index shows a huge move, with the market getting crushed in terms of bonds. The bonds were accelerating in terms of risk, but then started to de-risk last week. The speaker notes that when the MOVE index gets crushed, it can indicate temporary bottoms.

### 27. US02Y (US Government Bond 2 Year Yield) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (DE-RISKING)
**Pattern:** yields dropping from highs
**Key Levels:** 4.015% previous high, 3.726% current yield

The US 2-year yield started to drop around the same time as the MOVE index, indicating that bond market traders were anticipating de-risking. This further supports the idea that the market is finding temporary bottoms.

### 28. CLK2026 (Crude Oil Futures) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** sharp decline from highs
**Key Levels:** 117.27 previous high, 95.48 current price

Crude oil futures hit almost 120 and then dropped straight back down to 95.48. This is a massive reaction, with the price now back to the daily 20-day moving average, where it might find some structure.

### 29. EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Index Fund) (1M)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BULLISH (FINDING PRESSURE FROM BUY SIDE)
**Pattern:** breakout and retest of resistance
**Key Levels:** 57.31 current price, 55.81 support

Emerging markets (EEM) had broken up, then came back down to previous resistance areas. Now they are starting to look like they are finding a little bit of potential pressure from the buy side, indicating a potential upward move.

### 30. MAGS (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF) (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of lower highs and lower lows, then a higher high
**Key Levels:** 61.10 resistance, 58.26 current price

The MAGS chart on a 4-hour timeframe shows a series of lower highs and lower lows, followed by a move to a higher high. Post-market trading is above 60, indicating a bullish sentiment.

### 31. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BULLISH
**Pattern:** potential breakout and pullback
**Key Levels:** 415.61 resistance, 399.90 support, 362.53 previous low

The SMH chart shows semiconductors, which are considered a major indicator. The market often likes to break out, get everyone to FOMO, then pull back on negative news, and then see large dark pool activity. The speaker has an anchored VWAP at a key level, suggesting a potential retest before a further move up. This will be watched closely.

### 32. GER40 (German 40 Index) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH (POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION)
**Pattern:** Wyckoff distribution pattern
**Key Levels:** 23752.1 current price, 23051.8 support

The German markets have opened up at a supply resistance level. The chart still looks like a Wyckoff distribution pattern, indicating a massive position. While it hasn't technically failed the pattern (which would require taking out the high), the speaker suggests that if the current ceasefire wasn't in place, these markets would have seen significant selling pressure.

### 33. HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/VOLATILE
**Pattern:** coiling before a big move
**Key Levels:** 26226 resistance, 24985 support, 25233 current price

The Chinese markets are closed, but the speaker expects them to try and push towards 26000. Breakouts above 26300 would be significant. The longer the market sits and coils at critical zones, the bigger the subsequent move will be.

### 34. TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** consistent decline below 20-day moving average
**Key Levels:** 376.66 resistance, 333.32 long-term short level, 346.65 current price

Tesla almost hit a long-term short level of 333.32, getting down to about 340. It remains below the daily 20-day moving average, which has been consistently acting as resistance during its decline. This suggests continued bearish pressure.

### 35. GOLD (Gold (XAUUSD)) (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** new high, stabilizing off daily 200-day moving average
**Key Levels:** 4831.65 current price, 4726.77 support

Gold made a new high, stabilizing off the daily 200-day moving average. The initial reaction seems to have broken key zones, indicating a bullish sentiment.

### 36. IYT (iShares U.S. Transportation Average ETF) (1M)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH (POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE DECLINE)
**Pattern:** massive transactions, potential for future breakdown
**Key Levels:** 78.61 resistance, 67.89 support, 75.45 current price

The IYT chart on a monthly timeframe shows massive transactions. If the price keeps moving up and then breaks down later, the speaker warns not to forget this pattern during 2026, suggesting a potential future decline.

### 37. ITB (iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH (MACRO CONCERN)
**Pattern:** potential bounce, but still a concern
**Key Levels:** 103.67 resistance, 88.85 current price

ITB homebuilders might bounce a little bit, but it remains a concern in the macro environment. The speaker notes that the macro side is different, implying that underlying economic factors could still weigh on this sector.

### 38. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BULLISH (WATCHING FOR DARK POOLS)
**Pattern:** retest of most traded zone, potential for pullback and re-buying
**Key Levels:** 24938.4 resistance, 24163.3 resistance 1, 22723.2 first support, 24881.5 current price

The Nasdaq has really picked up on risk, going back to the most traded zone almost instantaneously. The major supply has been hit by big tech. The market often hits a level, pulls back to a Fibonacci or anchored VWAP, and then finds re-buying. This is often when dark pools are observed, and the speaker will be watching very closely.

### 39. KOSPI (KOSPI Composite Index) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/VOLATILE
**Pattern:** extremely volatile, potential for further moves
**Key Levels:** 6276.60 previous high, 5818.80 current price, 5084.85 support

The Kospi (South Korean market) is still one to watch, as it is extremely volatile. This market shows data centers and demand for AI, making it a key indicator for technological trends.

### 40. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin/TetherUS) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** closure above daily rejection candle, potential bull movement
**Key Levels:** 72056.73 current price, 71990.91 support, 65170.99 support, 76000 resistance, 89000 resistance

Bitcoin has closed above the daily rejection candle, and 72000 has been regained. If it gets a nice closure above here and then closes above 76000, it could finally be back in a bull movement, potentially towards 89000. The speaker notes an aftermarket gamma squeeze and off-side hedging, with more news expected.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The speaker discusses the interplay between macro data (CPI, PCE, bond yields, oil supply disruptions) and technical analysis (dark pool activity, moving averages, chart patterns). He emphasizes that while macro concerns exist, the market's reaction to news and institutional activity (dark pools) is crucial. The market is seen as potentially late cycle, but with opportunities for rallies if key levels are held and institutional buying continues. The importance of earnings season is highlighted as a major determinant for future market direction.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Patience, react, don't predict.
- If it's in the press, it's in the price.
- Watch for further rallies in markets by the middle of the year.
- Monitor key levels on USOIL, MAGS, SMH, DXY, SPX, NAS100, and BTCUSDT.
- Be aware of potential trapped longs if DXY breaks below 98.435.
- Expect volatility to continue in the markets.
- Watch for dark pool activity as markets pull back after breakouts.
- Do not have too much FOMO out there.

## All Instruments Mentioned
USOIL, MAGS, SMH, Dated Brent, SPYM, MU, S&P 500, SOXL, IYT, DXY, US500, MOVE, US02Y, CLK2026, EEM, GER40, HSI1!, TSLA, GOLD, ITB, NAS100, KOSPI, BTCUSDT

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-04-07 23:02:28*