# This Has Happened Before…
**Date:** 2026-04-09  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VD2NvQxPt70)

## Main Thesis
The market is currently in a volatile period, with some sectors showing bullish signs due to AI and IPOs, while others, like energy and homebuilders, show weakness. Historical patterns suggest potential for further volatility or a 'dead cat bounce' before a more sustained direction is established, especially with upcoming inflation figures and shifts in liquidity.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gap up above 50 and 200 moving averages
**Key Levels:** 6770-6850 resistance zone, 50-day moving average, 200-day moving average
**Historical Comparison:** 2007, 2015, 2018

The S&P 500 Index gapped up above both the 50 and 200 moving averages. This has happened in 2007, 2015, and 2018, leading to bad periods for stock traders and investors. The current price is around 6772.4, within a resistance zone of 6770-6850. The question is whether this time will be different or if it will lead to a downturn.

### 2. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** bounce off support
**Key Levels:** 78.52 support, 79.75 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) showed a bounce off the 78.52 support level, moving towards 79.75. This indicates strength in the software sector, which is tied to AI and data centers.

### 3. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward trend, bounce from moving averages
**Key Levels:** 404.52 support, 317.99 support, 261.05 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is in a strong upward trend, bouncing off its moving averages. The price is currently at 422.92, above the 404.52 support level. This sector is seen as the backbone of the US market, driven by AI, and is showing euphoria.

### 4. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** hit daily 20-moving average, showing stability
**Key Levels:** 96.913 support, daily 20-moving average
**Historical Comparison:** null

Crude Oil (USOIL) hit the daily 20-moving average and is showing some stability. The price is around 96.913. The question is whether things will get 'absolutely wild' or if stability will continue.

### 5. Market expectations of prices (BRN1! - Brent Crude) (multi-year (2026-2033))

**Bias:** BEARISH (LONG-TERM)
**Pattern:** downward sloping curve for future prices
**Key Levels:** 97.45 current price, 70s by 2027
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows market expectations for Brent Crude prices. Short-dated options have changed significantly, while long-term expectations remain similar, showing a decline into the 70s by 2027. This suggests a long-term bearish outlook for oil prices, despite current volatility.

### 6. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (daily (July 2023 - May 2026))

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** massive dark pool activity, accumulation
**Key Levels:** 80.00 support, 79.75 support, 78.52 support
**Historical Comparison:** Intel (INTC) years ago

Massive dark pool activity and accumulation are observed in the software sector (IGV), particularly around the 80.00 support level. This reminds of Intel's accumulation period years ago before a significant move up. The rise of AI is driving this, with a record dark pool trade recently.

### 7. S&P 500 when SPY gaps up +1% while XLE gaps down -1% (long-term (2000-2024))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rare divergence between SPY and XLE
**Key Levels:** 2.6% up on SPY, -5.7% down on XLE
**Historical Comparison:** several periods of weakness in markets

This chart shows the S&P 500's performance when SPY gaps up +1% and XLE (Energy Sector ETF) gaps down -1%. This specific divergence (2.6% up on SPY, -5.7% down on XLE) has never happened before. Similar, though less extreme, divergences have occurred during periods of significant market weakness, suggesting potential for continued weakness.

### 8. S&P 500: Midterm Years with Negative First Quarter (quarterly (since 1950))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/VOLATILE
**Pattern:** volatile Q2 after negative Q1 in midterm election years
**Key Levels:** negative Q1
**Historical Comparison:** multiple midterm election years

In midterm election years, a negative first quarter (Q1) often leads to a very volatile second quarter (Q2). Given the recent negative Q1, and upcoming CPI and earnings reports, markets could experience further weakness. This suggests a period of high volatility rather than a clear directional bias.

### 9. IYT (iShares U.S. Transportation ETF) (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dark pool activity at key levels
**Key Levels:** 2007 crash level, 2022 crash level
**Historical Comparison:** 2007 crash, 2022 crash

The iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT) shows dark pool activity at levels synonymous with the 2007 and 2022 crashes. A recent dark pool 'sweep' transaction suggests a weakening economy, similar to the 6-month early signal seen before the 2022 crash. This is a concern for the underlying economy.

### 10. SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/VOLATILE
**Pattern:** gap up above 200 and 50 moving averages
**Key Levels:** 200-day moving average, 50-day moving average
**Historical Comparison:** 2018, 2015, 2007

The SPY ETF gapped up above both the 200 and 50 moving averages. Historically, regaining both moving averages in the same session is rare. In 2018, this led to a 'dead cat bounce' into resistance before a large short. In 2015, it was very choppy, and in 2007, it preceded the global financial crisis. The current situation is similar, suggesting potential for a volatile market.

### 11. DXY (US Dollar Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** bullish hammer after lower low
**Key Levels:** 100.250 resistance, 98.880 support, 98.680 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US Dollar Index (DXY) took a lower low but instantly rebounded, ending as a bullish hammer. If DXY breaks above 100.250, it suggests a 'risk-off' environment globally. The current rebound indicates potential for higher movement, but a close below 98.880 would signal risk-on.

### 12. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/VOLATILE
**Pattern:** breakout above trendline, hitting supply zone
**Key Levels:** 6770-6850 supply zone, 6534.5 trendline support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US500 broke above a long-standing trendline and instantly moved into the 6770-6850 supply zone, which is also a highly traded zone and previous resistance. This rapid move is frustrating for traders. If this is a false breakout, the market could see a sharp decline, otherwise, it might consolidate before another move.

### 13. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (options expiration)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** call walls at 6800 and above
**Key Levels:** 6800 call resistance, 6500 put support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Options data for SPX shows significant call resistance at 6800, with calls extending all the way up to 7000. This indicates a strong bullish sentiment among options traders, with dealers hedging their positions. This 'call wall' suggests a potential target for the market.

### 14. Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ (options expiration)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** call walls at 610 and above
**Key Levels:** 610 call resistance, 570 put support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Options data for QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) shows major call resistance at 610, with calls extending higher. The current price is 606.1, just below this resistance. This indicates a strong bullish sentiment in the Nasdaq, similar to the SPX.

### 15. SMH/SPY (Semiconductor ETF / S&P 500 ETF ratio) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend, higher highs and lows
**Key Levels:** 0.6256 current ratio
**Historical Comparison:** null

The ratio of SMH to SPY is in a clear upward trend, with semiconductors outperforming the broader market. The current ratio is 0.6256, indicating continued strength in the semiconductor sector. If this trend reverses, it would be a major concern for the overall market.

### 16. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** almost all-time high
**Key Levels:** 422.92 current price, 404.29 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is almost at an all-time high, currently at 422.92. This strength is not solely due to NVIDIA but reflects a broader 'everything' market in semiconductors, driven by AI hype and upcoming IPOs.

### 17. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** unable to break 188 resistance
**Key Levels:** 188 resistance, 164.16 call wall
**Historical Comparison:** null

NVIDIA (NVDA) was unable to break the 188 resistance level, despite the overall strength in semiconductors. This suggests a potential opportunity if it breaks higher, but currently, it's not leading the charge. The hype has spread to other semiconductor stocks.

### 18. NDFI (Nasdaq 100 Stocks Above 50-Day Average) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/VOLATILE
**Pattern:** oscillating around 50-day average
**Key Levels:** 20 period
**Historical Comparison:** null

This indicator tracks the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks above their 50-day average. When it goes too negative (around the 20 period), it can create a temporary bottom or 'dead cat bounce'. The current level is 48.51, suggesting a volatile market where temporary bottoms can occur.

### 19. NDX100 (US 100 Cash CFD - Nasdaq 100) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/VOLATILE
**Pattern:** instant rally to most traded level
**Key Levels:** 24938.4 resistance, 24866.6 resistance, 24163.3 resistance 1, 22723.2 first support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX100) instantly rallied to the most traded level on the way down, hitting the biggest level of supply. This rapid move into resistance (around 24866.6) suggests a temporary equilibrium. If it's not already in, it's a fast market, but not necessarily a cause for worry, as opportunities often reappear.

### 20. US02Y (US Government Bonds 2 Year Yield) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** bounce back up after falling
**Key Levels:** 3.798% current yield
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US 2-Year Government Bond Yield (US02Y) bounced back up after falling, currently at 3.798%. This is interesting because yields are rising even though everything is supposedly improving, indicating potential underlying concerns in the bond market.

### 21. HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gap up, then slight fall
**Key Levels:** 80.19 current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) gapped up, a positive sign for 'risk-on' sentiment, but then fell slightly by the end of the day. This suggests some uncertainty despite the initial positive move.

### 22. MOVE (ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** continued to get crushed
**Key Levels:** 114.7186 peak, 78.7357 current level
**Historical Comparison:** null

The MOVE Index, which measures bond market volatility, continued to get crushed. This ended up being a 'really good bottoming function' around March 31st, suggesting a potential bottom in bond market volatility. The current level is 78.7357.

### 23. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** bottoming function
**Key Levels:** 6400 support, 6500 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) showed a bottoming function around March 31st, during the day of the MOVE Index announcement. This suggests that the market found a temporary bottom at that time, currently trading around 6782.82.

### 24. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/VOLATILE
**Pattern:** down to daily 20-moving average
**Key Levels:** 97.003 current price, 79.716 take profit zone
**Historical Comparison:** null

US Oil is down back to the daily 20-moving average, currently at 97.003. This is an evolving story, and it could create extreme volatility in the coming days.

### 25. EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Index Fund) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** bounce up
**Key Levels:** 55.81 support, 60.44 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Emerging Markets (EEM) bounced up significantly, currently at 60.44, above the 55.81 support. This is due to 'risk-on' sentiment benefiting emerging markets, which have been a better trade over the last 6-12 months. However, it's very volatile.

### 26. MAGS (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF) (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** little bit of a pick up
**Key Levels:** 59.78 resistance, 58.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) saw a little bit of a pickup, with one of the largest trades ever coming through at 58.00. However, software (like Microsoft) is not doing well, while Amazon did well. The overall market is still 'lackluster' for MAGS.

### 27. GER40 (German 40 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** breakout to resistance
**Key Levels:** 23051.8 support, 23890.3 current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The German 40 Index (GER40) went straight from breakout territory to resistance, currently at 23890.3. This rapid move into resistance suggests a temporary halt in its upward momentum.

### 28. HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** straight back into resistance
**Key Levels:** 24985 support, 26226 resistance level
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Chinese market (Hang Seng Index Futures) went straight back into resistance at 26100. This rapid move into resistance suggests a temporary halt in its upward momentum, similar to the German market.

### 29. TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** suck of liquidity, multiple taps to 20-moving average
**Key Levels:** 376.66 resistance, 333.32 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Tesla (TSLA) is experiencing a 'suck of liquidity', with multiple taps to the 20-moving average on the way down. This provides future opportunities but currently, Tesla is still in a downward trend, trading at 343.25.

### 30. Gold (XAUUSD) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** stabilizing, higher highs and lows
**Key Levels:** 4726.77 resistance, 5000 target
**Historical Comparison:** null

Gold is stabilizing and making a series of higher highs and higher lows, currently at 4726.77. It's moving towards a potential target of 5000, stabilizing along with silver.

### 31. ITB (iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** still down, low
**Key Levels:** 93.48 current price, 89.82 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Homebuilders (ITB) are still down and pretty low, currently at 93.48. If homebuilders make a new low, it's not good for the economy, so this is something to track this year.

### 32. IYT (iShares U.S. Transportation ETF) (monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** upward trend, big dark pool trades
**Key Levels:** 77.78 current price, 84.36 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The iShares U.S. Transportation ETF (IYT) is in an upward trend, currently at 77.78. Big dark pool trades have been observed, which are important for tracking the 'old school' backbone of the US economy. This is something to watch.

### 33. KOSPI (KOSPI Composite Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** probably topped, extremely volatile
**Key Levels:** 5084.85 support, 5797.65 current price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The KOSPI Composite Index (South Korean market) is probably topped based on technicals, currently at 5797.65. It's extremely volatile, and while Samsung is doing well, the overall market is up 300%. This suggests a potential for a downturn, especially if the AI trade falters.

### 34. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** little bit of recovery, still marking out too much
**Key Levels:** 72056.73 resistance, 71036.21 current price, 65170.99 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has seen a little bit of recovery, currently at 71036.21, but is still 'marking out too much'. It's within a channel, and 72000 is a key resistance. This suggests a holding pattern rather than a strong directional move.

### 35. ETHUSDT (Ethereum / TetherUS) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** closed above 2200
**Key Levels:** 2180.75 retail steal, 2610.50 most traded zone, 2927.38 mini bull level, 3444.29 bulls take control
**Historical Comparison:** null

Ethereum (ETHUSDT) managed to close above 2200, currently at 2180.75. This is encouraging for crypto traders, as it's above the 'retail steal' level. Other cryptos are still struggling, but Ethereum's move is a positive sign.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a late cycle, with a lot of liquidity being sucked into IPOs, particularly in the AI and semiconductor sectors. There's a divergence between the stock market (optimistic due to AI) and the economy (showing underlying weakness in sectors like homebuilders and transportation). The bond market is also showing rising yields despite expectations of improvement. This suggests a volatile period where 'risk-on' and 'risk-off' sentiments are clashing, and a 'dead cat bounce' scenario is possible.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch for further weakness in markets if the current 'false break' scenario plays out.
- Pay attention to inflation numbers coming out soon, as they will be paramount to market direction.
- Monitor semiconductor performance (SMH) as a key indicator for the US market.
- Be cautious of 'suck of liquidity' in stocks like Tesla due to upcoming IPOs.
- Keep an eye on homebuilders (ITB) as a leading indicator for the economy; a new low would be a negative sign.
- Be nimble and react to market changes, rather than predicting, especially in this volatile period.
- Embrace an 'abundance mindset' as opportunities will always arise, even if previous ones were missed.

## All Instruments Mentioned
US500, IGV, SMH, USOIL, BRN1!, SPY, XLE, IYT, DXY, SPX, QQQ, NVDA, NDFI, NDX100, US02Y, HYG, MOVE, KOSPI, BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, MAGS, GER40, HSI1!, TSLA, Gold, ITB, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, META, AVGO, MU, AMD, INTC, CRM, NOW, ADBE, TXN, IBM, CSCO, AMAT, KLAC, JPM, V, MS, GS, BAC, BRK-B, LLY, JNJ, UNH, WMT, KO, PEP, COST, MCD, HD, XOM, CVX, EEM

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-04-11 00:14:19*