# 2 Massive Wall Street Moves Just Happened...
**Date:** 2026-04-13  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4U2ApEVNOLw)

## Main Thesis
The market is showing signs of extreme volatility and potential reversals, particularly in semiconductors and private equity, while earnings season kicks off with high expectations that companies must meet to sustain the current rally.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SMH (VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** island reversal, dark pool transactions
**Key Levels:** 436.88 resistance, 410.00 support, 400.00 support, 390.00 support, 370.00 support, 360.00 support

The chart shows SMH at a key resistance level of 436.88. Atkinson highlights a failed negotiation, a new blockade, and the 8th largest transaction ever recorded in semiconductors. He points to an 'island reversal' pattern, suggesting a potential downturn. Two large dark pool transactions (labeled #8 and #33) are noted, with the #8 transaction occurring at the current resistance. He suggests that if markets drop, key supports are around 410, 400, 390, 370, and 360.

### 2. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** island reversal
**Key Levels:** 6,833.9 most traded zone, 6,777.6 current price, 6,648.7 support

The S&P 500 Index is shown with a 'most traded zone' around 6,833.9. Atkinson mentions a failed negotiation and a new blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a modest market fall of 0.81% to 0.6% at the open. He suggests this could expose an 'island reversal' pattern in technical analysis.

### 3. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong rally
**Key Levels:** 105.384 resistance, 90.000 support, 80.000 support

Crude Oil (WTI) is shown with a strong rally, holding above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Atkinson questions if this could lead to a massive crash, suggesting that massive moves in oil could have broader market implications.

### 4. Anthropic (meme) (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

A meme image is displayed showing the Grim Reaper knocking on a door labeled 'Anthropic', with other doors labeled 'SAAS', 'Cybersecurity', 'Consulting', and 'IBM' having blood dripping from underneath. This visually represents the potential impact of AI on various sectors.

### 5. Standard and Poor's 500 index categories (N/A)

**Bias:** MIXED

A treemap of the S&P 500 sectors and industries is shown. Technology and Consumer Cyclical sectors are largely green (up), while Financials and Healthcare are mixed. Semiconductors (AVGO +4.69%, NVDA +2.57%) are highlighted as strong performers, while MSFT (-0.59%), AAPL (0.00%), and GOOGL (-0.39%) are flat or down.

### 6. US 30, US 500, US Tech 100, Small Cap 2000, S&P 500 VIX (intraday)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** island reversal

A table showing the current performance of major US indices. US 30 is down -0.81%, US 500 is down -0.92%, US Tech 100 is down -1.12%, Small Cap 2000 is down -1.34%, and S&P 500 VIX is up +3.52%. Atkinson reiterates the possibility of an 'island reversal' pattern.

### 7. SMH (VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dark pool transactions
**Key Levels:** 436.90 resistance, 400.00 support, 392.00 support, 374.70 support

The SMH chart is shown again, emphasizing the dark pool transactions. Atkinson notes the 8th largest transaction ever recorded in semiconductors and other big trades in AVGO and MU. He highlights that two dark pools (including the 33rd largest) at the current high, on top of the 8th, suggest caution. If markets drop, key supports are around 400, 392, and 374.

### 8. EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea ETF) (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Mickey Mouse pattern, bubble
**Key Levels:** 138.82 current price, 120.00 resistance, 80.00 support, 60.00 support, 40.00 support

The EWY chart shows a significant rally, with Atkinson calling it a 'Mickey Mouse pattern' due to its shape. He notes the number one largest transaction ever recorded in EWY, which he suggests is a 'bubble' after going up over 150% in 12 months. This indicates potential overvaluation and risk.

### 9. SMH (VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dark pool activity
**Key Levels:** 436.90 resistance, 400.00 support, 392.00 support, 374.70 support

The SMH chart is shown again, with Atkinson reiterating the significance of dark pool activity. He notes that while semiconductors are technically strong, the presence of the 33rd and 8th largest dark pools at current highs warrants attention. He suggests looking for more dark pool activity at key support levels if markets drop.

### 10. Semiconductors (SMH) After a Momentum Thrust (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** momentum thrust
**Historical Comparison:** since 2011

A chart from Duality Research shows the average return of semiconductors after a momentum thrust. It indicates that after a 2-day rally of +5% (Day of Momentum Thrust), semiconductors tend to stabilize the market and return well over 63 days (average return +12.11%, win rate 89%). This suggests that the current bullish action in semiconductors could be a stabilizing factor for the broader market.

### 11. Investor redemption requests from private-credit funds, quarterly (quarterly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** exploding redemption requests
**Historical Comparison:** since 2022

A bar chart from Robert A. Stanger & Co. shows investor redemption requests from private-credit funds. Atkinson highlights that 'unmet' redemption requests have 'exploded' in Q1 2026, indicating a significant outflow of capital from private equity. This is a concerning trend for market stability.

### 12. Redemption Requests at Private Credit BDCs/Interval Funds (quarterly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** increasing redemption requests
**Historical Comparison:** Q3 2025, Q4 2025, Q1 2026

A bar chart showing redemption requests for various private credit funds. Atkinson points out a 'scary' trend of increasing redemption requests across the board, from Blue Owl to K-FIT. He questions if bond markets are showing the same, suggesting this could be a major story for 2026.

### 13. S&P 500 - Yearly EPS Estimates & Quarterly EPS Estimates (yearly/quarterly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** rising EPS estimates
**Historical Comparison:** since 2025

Two line charts from Duality Research show S&P 500 yearly and quarterly EPS estimates. Atkinson notes that both yearly and quarterly EPS estimates are continuing to rise, even amidst geopolitical conflict. He emphasizes the importance of big companies meeting these expectations and providing strong forward guidance during earnings season.

### 14. Most Anticipated Earnings Releases - April 13, 2026 (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

A calendar-style chart from Earnings Whispers showing the most anticipated earnings releases for the week of April 13, 2026. Key companies mentioned include Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, BlackRock, Citi, Wells Fargo, TSM, and Netflix. Atkinson highlights the importance of these releases for market direction, especially for big tech and banks.

### 15. Earnings Releases by Implied Movement - Week of April 13th (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** implied volatility

A chart from Earnings Watcher showing implied movement for earnings releases. Atkinson points out that TSM has an implied movement of +/- 6% and Netflix +/- 7%, based on options market data. Wells Fargo is expected to move +/- 5.5%. He stresses that retail traders often overlook this implied volatility, which can be a key indicator.

### 16. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dark pool clusters, new low
**Key Levels:** 80.00 support, 76.52 support, 74.67 support

The IGV chart shows significant dark pool clusters and a decline to a new low. Atkinson notes that the number one largest transaction went through a few weeks ago. He explains that while Wall Street buys on grids, they don't trade like retail traders. He suggests that if markets reclaim these levels after falling, it could indicate a short squeeze, but for now, software is declining.

### 17. S&P 500 vs. Flows into Money Market & Cash-Like ETFs (3-month rolling)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** recovery from shorts, move to cash
**Historical Comparison:** since 2015

A chart from macrocharts.com showing the S&P 500 against flows into money market and cash-like ETFs. Atkinson attributes the market recovery to an 'overwhelming amount of shorts' and people moving to cash due to fears about 2026. He suggests this could lead to either a real rally or a 'dead cat bounce', emphasizing the need to observe market flows.

### 18. Energy Leads, Food Follows (Gasoline Prices vs. UN Food and Agriculture World Food Price Index) (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** gasoline price spike leading to food price increase
**Historical Comparison:** since 2007

A chart from Tavi Costa and AZURIA CAPITAL showing gasoline prices and the UN Food and Agriculture World Food Price Index. Atkinson highlights that spiking gasoline prices tend to lead to increases in food prices. He notes that costs are already rising in the food industry and restaurants, indicating inflationary pressures.

### 19. S&P 500: Midterm Years with Negative First Quarter (yearly/quarterly)

**Bias:** VOLATILE
**Pattern:** volatile midterm election years
**Historical Comparison:** since 1950

A chart from Blue Kurdtic Market Insights showing S&P 500 performance in midterm election years with a negative first quarter. Atkinson reiterates that midterm election years are typically very volatile, with markets going 'up and down and all around'. He notes that a bad first quarter often leads to a volatile second quarter, with potential rallies and dips leading into elections. This reinforces the expectation of continued market volatility.

### 20. DXY (US Dollar Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** break low, potential trap/Wyckoff base
**Key Levels:** 100.250 resistance, 98.855 support, 98.755 support

The DXY chart shows the US Dollar breaking low, taking out bullish stop losses. Atkinson questions if a subsequent rally would be a 'big trap' (island reversal) or a Wyckoff base structure. He notes that the dollar still looks weak on small timeframes but base-structured on higher timeframes, with many calling it a Wyckoff pattern. He questions if it can break through 100.30 on a weekly close.

### 21. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** island reversal
**Key Levels:** 6,816.90 current price, 6,619.67 support

The SPX 4-hour chart is shown, with Atkinson again discussing the 'island reversal' pattern (gap up, price creation, gap down). He notes the market is only down 0.65%, which is unusual given the perceived risk, suggesting complacency. He points to 6600 as a key technical level for a potential island reversal.

### 22. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** downward trendline break, dark pool activity
**Key Levels:** 6,882.9 options high level, 6,842.7 most traded zone, 6,750.9 options low level, 6,600.0 support

The US500 futures market shows an open down, a rally up, and a break of the downward trendline. Atkinson highlights 6600 as a key level, aligning with anchored VWAP, Fibonacci levels, and previous dark pool activity. He questions if a bid will come in around 6600 or if the market will continue to fall, suggesting this is a major decision point between bulls and bears.

### 23. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (all expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** call wall/put support
**Key Levels:** 6900 call resistance, 6500 put support, 6814 spot price

A Net GEX chart for SPX shows that most people have been opening calls over the last week, anticipating good earnings and market relaxation. However, there's a 'call wall' at 6800 on Monday and 6850 on Tuesday, acting as temporary resistance. Put support is noted around 6500, with call resistance at 6900 and 6800.

### 24. Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ (all expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** call wall/put support
**Key Levels:** 620 call resistance, 582 put support, 611.1 spot price

A Net GEX chart for QQQ shows similar patterns to SPX. Call resistance is noted around 612-615, and put support around 580. This suggests a temporary resistance for markets, reinforcing the idea that all the positive news might be causing a 'resistance shock'.

### 25. MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** reclaimed resistance
**Key Levels:** 440.00 resistance, 420.59 current price

The MU chart shows significant volume recently, with the stock reclaiming previous resistance. Atkinson notes that it's now at a point where it's facing resistance again, suggesting a potential reversal into a 'most traded area'. He highlights that if MU pulls back to fill the gap down, it could equate to 6600 on the S&P.

### 26. SMH (VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** new high, dark pool transactions
**Key Levels:** 436.88 resistance, 405.02 support, 380.00 support, 360.00 support

The SMH chart shows the ETF ripping higher and making a new high, suggesting market resilience. Atkinson reiterates that semiconductors are the 'backbone of the US trade'. He notes two massive dark pool transactions that have marked relative tops and bottoms for recent trades. If SMH pulls back to fill the gap, it could align with 6600 on the S&P.

### 27. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (daily)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** previous breakout, anchored VWAP
**Key Levels:** 24,967.7 current price, 24,000.0 support, 23,200.0 support, 22,400.0 support

The NAS100 chart shows a rally, with Atkinson suggesting a potential pullback to around 24,000, aligning with previous breakouts, anchored VWAP low, and the most traded zone. This indicates a confluence of technical factors at that level.

### 28. US2000 (US 2000 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** resistance
**Key Levels:** 2,603.8 current price, 2,500.0 resistance, 2,438.6 first major target

The US2000 chart shows the index at resistance around 2500. Atkinson notes that all markets are currently facing resistance, regardless of the specific instrument.

### 29. KOSPI (KOSPI Composite Index) (daily)

**Bias:** VOLATILE
**Pattern:** volatile, data trade
**Key Levels:** 6,000.0 resistance, 5,808.62 current price, 5,500.0 support

The KOSPI chart shows extreme volatility, which Atkinson attributes to a 'data trade' related to RAM prices. He notes that RAM prices have started to drop, and the KOSPI has been very volatile, suggesting it's coming off a 'bumper period'.

### 30. SKNDK (Sandisk Corporation) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** three highs, distribution pattern
**Key Levels:** 851.77 current price, 800.00 resistance, 700.00 support

The SKNDK chart shows Sandisk with three monster trades, creating three highs. Atkinson suggests this could indicate a distribution pattern, signaling a potential downturn after significant rallies.

### 31. AVGO (Broadcom Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong rally, pullbacks
**Key Levels:** 371.55 current price, 340.00 support

The AVGO chart shows big trades and a strong rally. Atkinson suggests that if pullbacks occur, people still like the semiconductor trade. He highlights that TSM will be the most important stock this week, as weakness in semiconductors would be detrimental.

### 32. SMH/SPY (VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF / SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 0.6430 current ratio, 0.6000 support, 0.5800 support

The SMH/SPY ratio chart shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating that semiconductors are outperforming the broader market. Atkinson states that if semiconductors are holding, the market is holding, regardless of opinion.

### 33. HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) (2-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** stabilized
**Key Levels:** 80.33 current price, 79.96 support

The HYG chart shows high-yield junk bonds have stabilized. Atkinson notes that this means the bond market hasn't 'totally freaked out yet', suggesting some underlying stability despite other market concerns.

### 34. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** fall through, island reversal
**Key Levels:** 83.84 resistance, 76.52 support, 74.67 support

The IGV chart shows Microsoft and software in general falling through after the Anthropic news. Atkinson notes that Michael Burry also thought Palantir was not good. He highlights a potential 'island reversal' pattern (gap up, gap down) for IGV, suggesting a bearish outlook.

### 35. PLTR (Palantir Technologies Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** topped out, stagnation
**Key Levels:** 128.06 current price, 160.00 resistance

The PLTR chart shows Palantir topping out and stagnating for over six months. Atkinson uses this as an example of 'when it's in the press, it's in the price', suggesting that once a stock becomes widely known and hyped, its price potential diminishes. He notes extreme volatility in these stocks.

### 36. MAGS (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** resistance, big trade
**Key Levels:** 61.14 current price, 62.00 resistance, 58.00 support

The MAGS chart shows the Magnificent Seven ETF coming back up to resistance. Atkinson notes a big trade (the fourth largest) came in, suggesting some buying interest. However, he reiterates that resistance is present across most markets.

### 37. EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Index Fund) (daily)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** rebounded, resistance
**Key Levels:** 60.56 current price, 62.00 resistance, 58.00 support

The EEM chart shows emerging markets rebounding heavily but now facing resistance. Atkinson notes that metals also rebounded heavily but are at resistance, indicating a broad market trend of hitting resistance levels.

### 38. HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** resistance
**Key Levels:** 25,595 current price, 26,000 resistance, 24,882 support

The HSI1! chart shows the Chinese market at resistance. Atkinson notes that it's currently facing resistance, similar to other global markets.

### 39. GER40 (German 40 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** island reversal, sold off
**Key Levels:** 23,556.5 current price, 24,000.0 resistance, 23,000.0 support

The GER40 chart shows the German DAX tapping into resistance and selling off. Atkinson highlights an 'island reversal' pattern (gap up, gap down), which he describes as a classic bearish setup that many bears would look for, with stops above the high.

### 40. GOLD (XAUUSD) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** held moving average, holding well
**Key Levels:** 4,733.30 current price, 5,014.50 resistance, 4,726.77 support, 4,400.00 support

The GOLD chart shows the daily 200-day moving average was hit, and gold rallied up. Atkinson notes that gold is holding 'pretty well', while silver is a 'little bit worse'. He emphasizes that buying markets is generally easier than shorting due to inherent bullish policy.

### 41. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding moving average, breaking up
**Key Levels:** 103.393 current price, 110.000 resistance, 95.000 support, 85.000 support

The USOIL chart shows crude oil continuing to hold the daily 20-day moving average. Atkinson notes that it may close above two rejection wicks, suggesting a possible breakout. He states that energy stocks have also done something similar, coming back down to key supports and being extremely volatile. He warns that oil could move big, with a key horror show breakout level at 120 in the future.

### 42. US2000 (US 2000 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** retail steal
**Key Levels:** 2,605.5 current price, 2,761.4 resistance, 2,438.6 first major target

The US2000 chart is shown again. Atkinson briefly mentions it in the context of crypto, suggesting that crypto has been holding relatively well despite broader market movements.

### 43. ETHUSDT (Ethereum / TetherUS) (daily)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** broken above resistance, pressure on high
**Key Levels:** 2,194.66 current price, 2,200.00 resistance, 1,896.35 support

The ETHUSDT chart shows Ethereum breaking above the previous 2200 zone and putting pressure on the high of 2400. Atkinson notes that this is 'decent' performance within what has been an accumulation range.

### 44. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (4-hour)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** holding well, accumulation range
**Key Levels:** 71,369.22 current price, 71,000.00 support, 72,000.00 resistance

The BTCUSDT 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin holding relatively well at 71,000, closing above 72,000. Atkinson notes that there's a decent amount of accumulation and large transactions occurring, creating a base structure. He suggests that disagreements about price often create base structures.

### 45. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (weekly)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** accumulation range, previous demand
**Key Levels:** 71,369.22 current price, 70,928.79 support, 63,996.20 support

The BTCUSDT weekly chart shows Bitcoin holding relatively well, with Atkinson noting that it's stronger than some other markets. He highlights the previous demand zone and the current accumulation range. He suggests that the ultimate factor for market direction will be earnings, and potentially the semiconductor trade.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is characterized by extreme volatility, with a potential 'island reversal' pattern emerging in major indices. Private equity is experiencing exploding redemption requests, signaling underlying stress. While semiconductor strength is currently a stabilizing factor, the overall market is at key resistance levels. Inflationary pressures from rising energy prices are expected to impact food costs. Midterm election years are historically volatile, and the current market is exhibiting similar 'up and down' movements. Wall Street's tendency to give itself a 'second chance' after breakouts is noted, but the ultimate direction hinges on earnings season and the resilience of the semiconductor trade.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch for an 'island reversal' pattern in the S&P 500 and other indices.
- Pay attention to dark pool transactions in semiconductors as they often mark turning points.
- Monitor earnings season, especially for big tech and banks, and their forward guidance.
- Be aware of increasing redemption requests in private equity as a potential systemic risk.
- Recognize that midterm election years are inherently volatile, with potential dips and rallies.
- Exercise patience and react to market signals rather than predicting outcomes.
- Be aware of extreme volatility in oil and other commodities, as well as crypto, and manage risk accordingly.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SMH, US500, USOIL, Anthropic, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, AVGO, NVDA, MU, AMD, GOOGL, NFLX, JPM, BRK-B, COST, US 30, US Tech 100, Small Cap 2000, S&P 500 VIX, EWY, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, BlackRock, Citi, Wells Fargo, TSM, Netflix, IGV, DXY, HYG, PLTR, MAGS, EEM, HSI1!, GER40, GOLD, SKNDK, ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-04-13 23:03:27*