# The Market Is Betting ON THIS…
**Date:** 2026-04-16  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9b74RqtDvHU)

## Main Thesis
The market is currently experiencing a historic bull run, driven by optimism around AI and potential stimulus, leading to overextension and a 'face-ripper rally' that may eventually lead to a brutal sell-off, reminiscent of 2021.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. US500 (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout to new all-time high
**Key Levels:** 7000 (all-time high), 6991.9 (options high level), 6833.9 (most traded zone)

The US500 has broken through 7000 to a new all-time high, which was considered impossible just weeks ago. The market is currently in a 'face-ripper rally' and has squeezed past extreme levels. This rapid ascent suggests potential overextension, and while it's bullish now, it could lead to a brutal sell-off at some point.

### 2. XLE (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** pullback to support
**Key Levels:** 59.11 (important close level), 55.76 (support zone)

XLE, the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF, has pulled back to an important support zone around 55.76. The chart shows a previous rally to above 61, followed by a decline. The speaker notes that Wall Street is active in this sector during earnings season.

### 3. DRAM (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong rally after new ETF launch
**Key Levels:** 34.42 (current price), 33.50 (support)

The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) has seen a significant rally, with the speaker highlighting its connection to AI and hardware. The launch of this new ETF is seen as a potential indicator of the current market rally's underlying drivers. The speaker suggests that the existence of such an ETF could signal the 'beginning of the end of the party' due to the time it takes for ETFs to launch, implying that the market may already be two-thirds through its move.

### 4. S&P 500 (historical)

**Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM), CAUTIOUS (LONG-TERM)
**Pattern:** new all-time high after 50+ days
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 forward performance since 2000 (n=14)

The S&P 500 has made its first new all-time high in over 50 days. Historically, when this occurs, markets tend to show further strength. The speaker notes that the economy and stock market are currently detached, with stimulus likely required later in the year. This pattern is often seen in midterm election years, with an up, then down, then up again, potentially followed by a big down coming into the end of the year.

### 5. NASDAQ 100 (historical)

**Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM), CAUTIOUS (LONG-TERM)
**Pattern:** 11 consecutive days up
**Historical Comparison:** NASDAQ 100 when up 11 consecutive days (since 1985)

The NASDAQ 100 has been up for 11 consecutive days. Historical data suggests that when this happens, further strength is usually around the corner, although markets may pull back over the next quarter. The speaker mentions a 'double-dip style scenario' thought about for 2026.

### 6. S&P 500 (monthly (April))

**Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM), CAUTIOUS (LONG-TERM)
**Pattern:** strong start to April
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 Strongest Starts to April: Top 10 Since 1950

2026 is the second-strongest start to April since 1950. Historically, strong starts to April often lead to positive full-month and full-year changes, but can also be followed by significant drawdowns. The speaker draws parallels to 2021, noting that similar market behavior (FOMO, algorithmic strength, private equity/IPO markets) led to a big fall-off eventually.

### 7. Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern (seasonal (1950-2024 average))

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** seasonal headwinds/tailwinds
**Historical Comparison:** Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern (1950-2024)

The chart shows a typical midterm election year pattern: a rally into April/May, followed by a sell-off into the middle of the year, leading to further weakness ahead of midterm elections, with markets often bottoming just before the election period. This aligns with the current rally and potential future weakness.

### 8. IGV (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (POTENTIAL REVERSAL)
**Pattern:** potential Wyckoff accumulation pattern
**Key Levels:** 82.98 (current price), 88.58 (resistance)

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has been in a downtrend, hitting three lower lows. It has now reclaimed the 77 level and is approaching the 89 level, which would confirm a Wyckoff-style base. The speaker notes massive dark pool activity and volume, suggesting a potential reversal for the software sector, which has been 'horrible' but is now starting to come back.

### 9. SSO (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM), CAUTIOUS (PROFIT-TAKING)
**Pattern:** breakout to new all-time high
**Key Levels:** 58.96 (current price), 58.00 (all-time high)

The ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO) has seen a big trade just before the main all-time high. The speaker suggests that some investors might be taking profits, as professional traders often trim positions after such rallies, especially with negative news. However, markets can overextend these levels.

### 10. EWY (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Mickey Mouse pattern (accumulation)
**Key Levels:** 138.82 (current price), 125.00 (resistance)

The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) shows a 'Mickey Mouse pattern' (three peaks with a central lower peak, followed by a rally). The speaker notes a new launch to an exchange-traded fund (DRAM) related to memory and hardware, which has been on an 'absolute ripper run'. This suggests that when new ETFs launch, it can signal the end of the party, as the process takes time and the market may already be two-thirds through its move.

### 11. Earnings Releases (April 13, 2026) (weekly)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** earnings season

The earnings season for April 13, 2026, shows banks performing okay and holding price. Key upcoming earnings include TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) and Netflix on Thursday. The speaker emphasizes that TSM is 'definitely the one to watch' due to its expected implied movement of +/- 6%.

### 12. S&P 500 (yearly/quarterly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** rising EPS estimates

Yearly and quarterly EPS estimates for the S&P 500 are both going up, indicating strong expectations from Wall Street. This suggests that the market's current strength is, to some extent, justified by underlying earnings expectations.

### 13. Semiconductors (SMH) (historical)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** momentum thrust
**Historical Comparison:** What Happened to Semiconductors After a Momentum Thrust?

After a 'momentum thrust' (a 2-day rally of +8%), semiconductors (SMH) have historically shown an average return of +12.11% after 63 days with an 88% win rate. This reinforces the bullish outlook for semiconductors, which are seen as the 'backbone' of AI and data centers. The speaker questions if this market is detached from reality.

### 14. Gasoline Prices / Food Price Index (monthly (2007-2026))

**Bias:** BEARISH (FOR MIDDLE CLASS)
**Pattern:** energy leads, food follows

Gasoline prices (energy) have spiked significantly, and historically, food prices tend to follow. This suggests that even if energy prices come down, the damage to food costs will hurt the middle class. The market is looking optimistically forward to stimulus, deregulation, and AI IPOs, leading to a 'bit of euphoria'.

### 15. DXY (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend to demand zone
**Key Levels:** 98.755 (resistance), 97.720 (support), 97.520 (support)

The US Dollar Index Futures (DXY) has been falling, moving towards a longer-term support base. The dollar has been quite weak, which often correlates with strength in other markets.

### 16. SPX (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM), BEARISH (LONG-TERM)
**Pattern:** face-ripper rally
**Key Levels:** 7022.96 (current price), 6619.67 (support)

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has shown continuous strength, squeezing past what is considered an extreme level. This 'face-ripper rally' is expected to be followed by a 'brutalized sell' at some point. The speaker emphasizes the importance of risk management in such volatile conditions.

### 17. US500 (15m)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs, higher lows
**Key Levels:** 7037.6 (current price), 7085.6 (options high level), 6962.4 (options low level), 6842.7 (most traded zone)

The US500 futures are showing a series of higher highs and higher lows on smaller timeframes. The market has moved through a massive positive gamma wall at 7000, leading to repricing towards 7050 and 7100. This indicates strong bullish momentum driven by options hedging.

### 18. IGV (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (POTENTIAL REVERSAL)
**Pattern:** reclaiming previous levels
**Key Levels:** 82.98 (current price), 88.58 (resistance), 77.30 (support)

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has reclaimed the 77 level after a series of lower lows. If it breaks through 89, it would confirm a Wyckoff-style base. High volume and dark pool activity suggest a potential reversal for the software sector.

### 19. S5INFT (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout from downtrend
**Key Levels:** 5814.03 (current price), 6090.82 (previous high)

The S&P 500 Information Technology Index (S5INFT) has broken through a downward trendline after a significant decline (almost a bear market at 19%). This rally, combined with a 20/50 cross, indicates strong bullish momentum for the sector.

### 20. SMH/SPY (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong relative performance
**Key Levels:** 0.6472 (current ratio)

The ratio of VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) to SPY shows semiconductors outperforming the broader market. This indicates that the market has 'got the backbone with it' due to strong performance in the semiconductor sector.

### 21. SMH (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** new all-time high
**Key Levels:** 453.00 (all-time high), 317.99 (support)

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has reached another all-time high. The speaker reiterates that if semis are up, the market has strong underlying support. However, the speaker also notes that the launch of the DRAM ETF could be a sign of caution.

### 22. DRAM (1D)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** new ETF launch, strong rally
**Key Levels:** 34.47 (current price), 33.08 (support)

The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) has seen a rapid ascent since its launch. The speaker views the launch of such a specialized ETF as a potential 'sign of caution', suggesting that it could mark the 'beginning of the end of the party' for the current rally, as it often takes time for such products to come to market, implying the trend is already mature.

### 23. KOSPI (1D)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** Mickey Mouse pattern (potential reversal)
**Key Levels:** 6209.06 (almost new high)

The KOSPI Composite Index (South Korean market) is almost at a new high, but the speaker points out a 'Mickey Mouse pattern' (a higher high followed by a dip and then another rally). This pattern, combined with a lot of transactions, suggests that prices might be a 'little bit expensive' and could be a sign of overextension, making it difficult to trade or invest in due to high hype.

### 24. USOIL (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** pullback to support
**Key Levels:** 91.643 (current price), 79.716 (take profit zone/support)

US Crude Oil (WTI) went down, then came back up, surviving the 50-day daily moving average support base. Oil prices are dropping off due to hopes for a deal, but the speaker notes that this is an 'evolving storyline'.

### 25. UKOIL (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** hovering around support
**Key Levels:** 94.94 (current price), 94.36 (support)

Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) is hovering around a key support level. The speaker mentions a fire at a main refinery in Australia, which could impact fuel prices, suggesting that prices are not coming down anytime soon.

### 26. XLE (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** largest trade ever
**Key Levels:** 55.76 (current price), 55.49 (support)

The State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) saw its largest trade ever at around the current price. The speaker is interested to see if XLE starts to find a bid in the coming sessions, as it's a sector many are watching.

### 27. EEM (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** doing okay
**Key Levels:** 62.20 (current price)

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is 'doing okay', with no strong directional bias expressed.

### 28. EWZ (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong April recovery
**Key Levels:** 41.46 (current price), 38.11 (support)

The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) has been a 'standout' in recent sessions, breaking up through the first of April and having a strong April recovery. This indicates bullish momentum for the Brazilian market.

### 29. TSLA (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM REVERSAL)
**Pattern:** break above daily 20MA
**Key Levels:** 391.95 (current price), 382.73 (resistance/support), 331.83 (support)

Tesla (TSLA) has, for the first time in a very long time, convincingly broken through the daily 20-moving average, stopping a series of lower lows and lower highs. This is seen as a 'first timeframe change of trend' and a strong movement coming into earnings. The speaker notes that it's in positive gamma again, which is a good sign.

### 30. GOLD (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs, higher lows
**Key Levels:** 4825.34 (current price), 4726.77 (support)

Gold (XAU/USD) is showing a series of higher highs and higher lows. The speaker notes that the lower low would be a risk point for many if the market were to go back down.

### 31. XME (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** doing okay
**Key Levels:** 115.68 (current price), 115.12 (resistance)

The State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) is 'doing okay', similar to previous videos. Strong copper movement is noted, as it's becoming clear that copper is going into a potential shortage, driving its price up.

### 32. COPPER (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout from head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 6.1113 (current price), 5.9457 (resistance)

Copper has seen strong movement, breaking out of a head and shoulders pattern. It's now 'blatantly clear' that copper is heading into a potential shortage, which is driving its price up. The speaker notes that once it took out the head and shoulders, it's been 'strong, strong, strong'.

### 33. HSI1! (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** new higher high after dip
**Key Levels:** 26304 (current price), 26209 (resistance), 24882 (support)

The Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI1!) has set off an alert by making a new higher high after a dip. This indicates that many markets around the world are recovering.

### 34. CAR (1W)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** insane face-ripper rally
**Key Levels:** 395.77 (current price), 77.14 (support), 67.76 (support)
**Historical Comparison:** reminiscent of 2021

Avis Budget Group (CAR) is experiencing an 'insane face-ripper rally', reminiscent of 2021. The speaker describes it as 'wild' and a 'diabolical looking thing', suggesting that while it's moving up rapidly, it's likely unsustainable and could end in a similar fashion to previous speculative bubbles.

### 35. QQQ (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** new all-time high
**Key Levels:** 637.40 (current price), 631.98 (previous high)

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) has managed to 'eke out' a new all-time high, indicating continued strength in the Nasdaq.

### 36. NAS100 (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM), CAUTIOUS (LONG-TERM)
**Pattern:** face-ripper rally
**Key Levels:** 26293.3 (current price), 26191.8 (previous high)

The US 100 Cash CFD (NAS100) has continued its rally after hours, reaching a new all-time high. This is an 'absolute face-ripper rally' that could still lead to a 'big pain train' in the future. However, earnings are holding up, and the market likes what it sees, though TSM might be the 'linchpin'.

### 37. US2000 (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong rally
**Key Levels:** 2715.3 (current price)

The US 2000 Index (US2000) is not quite at an all-time high but is still up there, showing a strong rally. The market seems to care only about the AI trade and stimulus into metals.

### 38. ETHUSDT (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** struggling with resistance
**Key Levels:** 2368.97 (current price), 2357.29 (resistance)

Ethereum (ETH/USDT) is still struggling with a key resistance level, indicating a lack of clear breakout momentum.

### 39. BTCUSDT (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** struggling with resistance
**Key Levels:** 74871.04 (current price), 78826.39 (resistance), 76155.88 (resistance)

Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) has not broken above 76, still struggling with resistance. This suggests a lack of strong bullish conviction for now.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a 'face-ripper rally' driven by optimism around AI, hardware, and potential central bank stimulus, despite underlying economic concerns. This is compared to the speculative euphoria of 2021 and historical midterm election year patterns, which often see a rally followed by a significant correction. The speaker highlights a detachment between the economy and the stock market, with a focus on 'abundance mindset' and risk management.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Expect volatility, but trade and invest with risk management.
- The launch of the DRAM ETF could be a 'sign of caution', potentially signaling the end of the current rally.
- TSM's earnings release is 'definitely the one to watch' for its impact on the semiconductor sector and broader market.
- The current 'face-ripper rally' is likely to be followed by a 'brutalized sell' at some point, similar to 2021.
- Energy prices leading to higher food costs will 'really hurt the middle class'.

## All Instruments Mentioned
US500, XLE, DRAM, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, AVGO, NVDA, MU, LRCX, AMAT, CSCO, IBM, JPM, V, BRK-B, LLY, ABBV, JNJ, XOM, CVX, WMT, COST, PM, NFLX, GE, BA, CAT, RTX, VZ, T, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, SSO, EWY, Fastenal, FirstBank, BlackRock, Citi, CarMax, GloO, Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, ASML, Morgan Stanley, Vince, M&T Bank, PNC, Great Southern Bancorp, BNY Mellon, Hooker, PepsiCo, Alcoa, TrustCo Bank, Ally, Ericsson, Autoliv, Abbott, TSM, DXY, SPX, IGV, S5INFT, SMH, SPY, KOSPI, USOIL, UKOIL, EEM, EWZ, TSLA, GOLD, XME, COPPER, HSI1!, CAR, QQQ, NAS100, US2000, ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-04-24 23:13:04*