# Could This Really Happen?
**Date:** 2026-04-17  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWaei_4JSxU)

## Main Thesis
The market is currently experiencing a 'melt-up' driven by AI and tech, with a potential rally to 7300 on the SPX before a 15-20% drawdown into mid-term elections, followed by a Q4 rally to 7700. This aligns with historical mid-term election year seasonality and current market rotation from semiconductors to software.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH SHORT-TERM, BEARISH MID-TERM, BULLISH LONG-TERM
**Pattern:** upward channel, potential topping pattern
**Key Levels:** 7300 resistance, 6400 support, 6600 support, 6800 support
**Historical Comparison:** mid-term election year seasonal pattern

Tom Lee predicts SPX to reach 7300 in Q2, followed by a 15-20% drawdown to 5840-6205 in Q3, and then a rally to 7700 in Q4. This aligns with the mid-term election year seasonal pattern showing a rally into April/May, a drop into September/October, and then a strong rally into year-end. The current chart shows a strong upward trend, breaking above previous resistance levels, with moving averages (20, 50, 200) all pointing upwards.

### 2. TSM (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** topping pattern
**Key Levels:** 380 resistance, 360 support

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) had a record quarter with 35% revenue growth, 58% profit growth, and margins expanding to 66%, with raised full-year guidance. Despite this strong earnings report, the stock fell 3% on the session, suggesting that the positive news was already 'priced in'. The chart shows a recent peak around 380, followed by a decline to 363.35.

### 3. XLE (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** potential bottoming pattern
**Key Levels:** 56.60 support, 62 resistance

The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is finding bids after being a 'hated sector'. The chart shows a recent decline from highs around 62, finding support around 56.60. It has had the best 5-day performance among the majors, indicating a risk-on sentiment in the market. A large dark pool print was observed, suggesting institutional buying.

### 4. Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern (yearly average)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** seasonal cycle
**Key Levels:** April/May peak, September/October bottom
**Historical Comparison:** average of DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000 from 1950-2022

This chart illustrates the average percentage change of major indices (DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000) during mid-term election years. It shows a typical pattern of recovery in April, topping out around May/June, a substantial drop-off into September/October, and then a rally just before the elections themselves. This pattern aligns with Tom Lee's prediction for 2026.

### 5. NASDAQ 100 (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** extended rally
**Key Levels:** 12 days up straight
**Historical Comparison:** past instances of 12+ consecutive up days since 1985

The NASDAQ 100 has been up for 12 consecutive days, a rare occurrence. Historical data shows that after such a streak, the market's performance over the next 1-6 months is mixed (coin flip), but it tends to be up 100% of the time one year later. This suggests a potential short-term pullback or consolidation before a longer-term rally, aligning with the broader seasonal pattern.

### 6. S&P 500 (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** new ATH
**Key Levels:** new all-time high after 50+ days
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 forward performance since 2000 (n=14)

This chart from Bluekurtic Market Insights shows S&P 500 performance after making a new all-time high following a period of 50+ days without one. Historically, this can lead to flaky performance and significant drawdowns in the short to medium term (3-12 months), with some instances leading to major market corrections (e.g., 2000). The current AI trade and capex trade are driving the market, but the sustainability is questionable.

### 7. IGV (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** bottoming structure, breakout
**Key Levels:** 88.58 resistance, 84.36 resistance, 77.75 support

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) has been a 'hated sector' but is now showing signs of a turnaround. It has formed a basing structure with massive volume, indicating accumulation. A break above 84.36 and potentially 89.74 would confirm a stronger upward move. Dark pool activity suggests institutional interest at lower levels. This sector has been the best performing over the last 5 days, indicating a rotation from defensive to risk-on assets.

### 8. XLE (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** potential bottoming pattern
**Key Levels:** 56.60 support, 62 resistance

The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is finding bids after being a 'hated sector'. The chart shows a recent decline from highs around 62, finding support around 56.60. It has had the best 5-day performance among the majors, indicating a risk-on sentiment in the market. A large dark pool print was observed, suggesting institutional buying.

### 9. CAR (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** short squeeze, parabolic rally
**Key Levels:** 77.14 support, 67.76 support, 450 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 2021 squeeze

Avis Budget Group (CAR) has experienced an insane parabolic rally, with huge dark pool activity and clusters at the top. This is reminiscent of a short squeeze seen in November 2021. While it's not a short call, the extreme volatility and rapid price increase suggest caution. The market is currently trading around 448.98, far above previous support levels.

### 10. SSO (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend, dark pool activity
**Key Levels:** 58 resistance, 55 support, 52 support
**Historical Comparison:** similarities to 2021 market

ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO) shows a strong upward trend with significant dark pool activity, including the second-largest trade ever recorded on this S&P fund. This suggests institutional interest and a bullish bias, despite the market pushing higher. The chart shows a rally from 52 to 58, with resistance around 58.

### 11. EWY (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Mickey Mouse pattern (cluster of dark pools)
**Key Levels:** 125 support, 140 resistance

The iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) is exhibiting a 'Mickey Mouse pattern' with a huge cluster of dark pool activity at higher levels. This is referred to as the 'data center play' or the hardware side of AI. The market has been picking up significantly, with huge transactions, suggesting strong institutional interest. The chart shows a rally from 60 to 138.82, with a cluster of dark pools around 125-140.

### 12. S&P 500 EPS Estimates (yearly and quarterly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward revision
**Key Levels:** yearly EPS 375-390, quarterly EPS 88.3-85.5

This chart from Duality Research shows strong bullish sentiment from Wall Street regarding S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) estimates. Both yearly and quarterly EPS estimates are being revised upwards, indicating confidence in future corporate performance. Yearly EPS is projected to reach 375-390, and quarterly EPS is expected to be around 88.3-85.5.

### 13. DXY (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downward trend
**Key Levels:** 98.995 resistance, 97.520 support

The US Dollar Index Futures (DXY) has been declining, but didn't quite hit the expected stopping point on the sell-side. It got close to 97.520 and then saw a slight pickup. Levels to watch in the future are 99 (parity) as resistance and 97.520 as support. A break below 97.520 could signal a further collapse in the dollar.

### 14. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH, BUT OVERBOUGHT
**Pattern:** strong upward trend, overbought
**Key Levels:** 7041.29 current, 6619.67 support

The S&P 500 continues to push higher, reaching new all-time highs and appearing 'totally overbought'. However, markets can remain irrational longer than one can remain solvent. The chart shows a strong rally, breaking above 6800-6870, which was previously a good technical analysis zone. A 20/50 cross has occurred, and the market is above the daily 200-day moving average, indicating a strong bullish trend. The question remains if it can reach 7300.

### 15. US500 (5-minute)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** high highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 7102.5 options high level, 6977.5 options low level

The US500 (S&P 500 Index) is showing high highs and higher lows. Options high and low levels are updated, indicating uncharted territory. The market is continuously bullish, with no clear moving average to follow, suggesting a 'ballistic' move driven by news. The chart shows a steep upward trend with consistent higher highs and higher lows.

### 16. US500 (2-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** continuous bullish trend
**Key Levels:** 7102.5 options high level, 6977.5 options low level, 6842.7 most traded zone

The US500 (S&P 500 Index) on a 2-hour timeframe shows a continuous bullish trend. The market is not following any specific moving average, indicating a strong, almost 'ballistic' upward movement. The options high level is at 7102.5, and the options low level is at 6977.5. The most traded zone is around 6842.7. The market is likely to be driven by news.

### 17. SPX GEX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive gamma, call walls
**Key Levels:** 7050 call resistance, 6830 HVL, 6500 put support

The Net GEX All Expirations for SPX shows that the market is still in positive gamma, but is facing significant call resistance at 7050 and 7100. The options markets have moved to these levels, making a push towards 7300 (Tom Lee's target) more plausible if these resistances are breached. The chart shows a strong positive GEX profile with call resistance building up.

### 18. SPX GEX (multiple expirations) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong spike ups in options movements
**Key Levels:** 7050 call resistance, 6500 put support

This chart shows Net GEX for SPX across multiple expirations. It highlights strong spike-ups in options movements, particularly around the 7050 call resistance level. If the market breaches and closes above 7050, it could move towards 7100, making Tom Lee's 7300 target more achievable. The overall sentiment in the options market remains positive.

### 19. QQQ GEX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive gamma, call walls
**Key Levels:** 645 call resistance, 618 HVL, 590 put support

The Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ (NASDAQ 100 ETF) indicates that call walls have moved up to around 645. The market is still in positive gamma, suggesting a bullish bias. Strong spike-ups in options movements are observed, similar to SPX, indicating continued upward pressure on the NASDAQ.

### 20. QQQ GEX (multiple expirations) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong spike ups in options movements
**Key Levels:** 640-645 resistance

This chart shows Net GEX for QQQ across multiple expirations. It highlights strong spike-ups in options movements, with key resistance levels around 640-645. The overall options market for QQQ is showing strong positive movements, suggesting continued bullish sentiment for the tech-heavy index.

### 21. NVDA GEX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** at resistance
**Key Levels:** 200 call resistance, 195 spot price

The Net GEX All Expirations for NVDA (NVIDIA) shows that the price is just underneath the 200 call resistance level. This indicates that the market is currently at a significant resistance point. While there's a lot of call resistance, it doesn't necessarily imply a bearish turn, but rather a potential pause or consolidation.

### 22. NVDA GEX (multiple expirations) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** strong spike ups in options movements
**Key Levels:** 200 call resistance, 180 put support

This chart shows Net GEX for NVDA across multiple expirations. It highlights strong spike-ups in options movements, with significant call resistance at 200. The price is currently just below this level, suggesting a potential struggle to break higher. Put support is around 180.

### 23. IGV (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** basing structure, breakout
**Key Levels:** 88.58 resistance, 84.36 resistance, 77.75 support

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) is showing a basing structure with massive volume, indicating accumulation. It has broken above 77.75 and 83.89, with the next key resistance at 88.58. This is a very 'hated sector' that has been brutalized in recent weeks and months, making its recent rally significant as an 'anti-AI trade' or rotation from AI to software.

### 24. KOSPI (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** Mickey Mouse pattern (volatility)
**Key Levels:** 6400 resistance, 6189.50 current

The KOSPI (South Korea Composite Index) is back at resistance around 6400, after showing a 'Mickey Mouse pattern' of high volatility. This market is heavily driven by hardware companies like Samsung. The chart shows a significant drop and then a recovery, with current price at 6189.50. The volatility suggests that someone is aware of underlying movements.

### 25. URA (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** downward trendline break, pit
**Key Levels:** 55.27 resistance, 52.38 support

The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) has broken a downward trendline, showing a 'pit' (pullback in time) followed by a rally. It has hit a small resistance level and is now in a series of higher highs and higher lows, which is encouraging. The chart shows a break above 52.38 and a current price of 55.27.

### 26. XLE (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** potential bottoming pattern
**Key Levels:** 56.60 support, 57.71 resistance

The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) is finding bids after being a 'hated sector'. The chart shows a recent decline from highs around 62, finding support around 56.60. It has had the best 5-day performance among the majors, indicating a risk-on sentiment in the market. A large dark pool print was observed, suggesting institutional buying.

### 27. USOIL (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** downward trend, potential support
**Key Levels:** 88.312 support, 98.680 resistance

CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI) are showing a downward trend, but are approaching a major support level at around 88.312. If oil breaches 88.312 to the downside, it could mean the market is pricing in improvements in global stability. However, 88.312 is a major level on higher timeframes, suggesting potential for a bounce. Current price is 93.272.

### 28. XME (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** downward trendline break, 20/50 cross
**Key Levels:** 115.96 current, 109.92 support

The SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) is showing a similar pattern to Uranium, with a slight breakout above a downward trendline and a 20/50 moving average cross. This is a significant technical analysis term in moving averages, suggesting a potential upward move. Current price is 115.96.

### 29. EEM (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend
**Key Levels:** 62.45 current, 58 support

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Fund (EEM) has been picking up, with an upward trend. This is consistent with a risk-on environment, especially when driven by potential inflation concerns. The chart shows a rally from 58 to 62.45.

### 30. Gold (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** resilient, higher high, higher low
**Key Levels:** 4792.80 current, 5000 resistance, 4726.77 support

Gold is showing resilience, with higher highs and higher lows, but no significant change in its overall trend. It is currently trading around 4792.80, with resistance at 5000. People are watching to see if it can break above 5000 on the charts.

### 31. Copper (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** smashes into resistance
**Key Levels:** 6.0452 current, 6.0799 resistance, 5.8669 support

Copper has been stronger than other metals, smashing into resistance at 6.0799. This strength is likely due to concerns about refining capacity and supply. The chart shows a strong rally, with the current price at 6.0452. Copper has quite a lot of problems, and the longer this goes on, the more it could spike one of the most important metals in the world.

### 32. HSI1! (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher high, pit
**Key Levels:** 26209 resistance, 25770 support

The Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI1!) has made a higher high after a small 'pit' (pullback in time). While it hasn't gone 'absolutely ballistic' to the upside, it did break slightly higher. The chart shows a rally from 25770 to 26209, indicating initial signs of improvement in the Chinese markets.

### 33. CAR (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** short squeeze, parabolic rally
**Key Levels:** 448.98 current, 77.14 support, 67.76 support
**Historical Comparison:** similar to November 2021

Avis Budget Group (CAR) on a weekly timeframe shows an insane parabolic rally, with the current price at 448.98. This is reminiscent of a short squeeze that occurred in November 2021. The extreme upward movement suggests a squeeze, and when these eventually go bad, they can get 'pretty nasty'. The question is whether it will go all the way to 540.

### 34. SNDK (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** short squeeze, parabolic rally
**Key Levels:** 919.47 current, 704.37 support
**Historical Comparison:** reminiscent of 2021

Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) on a weekly timeframe is showing a massive short squeeze, with the price going higher than expected, currently at 919.47. This is reminiscent of the market in 2021, suggesting that things are getting 'a little bit too exuberant'. Big moves are observed, indicating significant volatility.

### 35. NAS100 (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH, BUT POTENTIALLY OVEREXTENDED
**Pattern:** all-time high, massive V-shape
**Key Levels:** 26308.9 current, 25153 support

The NAS100 (NASDAQ 100 Cash CFD) has reached an all-time high with a massive V-shape recovery and huge movement. There are no signs of relenting yet, but it could be 'a news away' from falling back down. Levels to watch in the future include 25000 as support. A full update on the S&P, NASDAQ, and Russell will be provided in the weekend video once the closes are in.

### 36. TSLA (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** important close above moving averages
**Key Levels:** 401.79 call wall, 388.90 resistance, 383.05 important break level, 331.83 support

Tesla (TSLA) has seen an important close above the 20-day daily moving average and also above the low, lower high, lower low pattern. This is a significant 'switch zone' on the markets. The chart shows a rally from 331.83 to 388.90, with a call wall at 401.79. The important break level is at 383.05.

### 37. ETHUSDT (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** coiling at resistance, potential squeeze
**Key Levels:** 2368.97 resistance, 2171.72 retail steal

Ethereum (ETHUSDT) is coiling right at the resistance level of 2368.97. If it breaks out, it could enter a potential squeeze due to almost no support on the left-hand side of the chart. This could be a very interesting chart if Ethereum starts to break. The 'retail steal' level is at 2171.72.

### 38. BTCUSDT (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** at resistance
**Key Levels:** 74723.78 resistance, 71369.22 support, 78826.39 second buy zone

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) is doing the same thing as Ethereum, currently at a resistance level of 74723.78. Interesting levels to watch are 76195.12 (where stop losses might be) and potentially 89000. It has been 'pretty disliked' for quite some time, especially through late 2025. A break above resistance could bring people back into crypto. The 'second buy zone' is at 78826.39.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is experiencing sector rotation, with money moving from defensive sectors to risk-on assets. Software is spiking up while semiconductors, despite good earnings, are showing dark pool activity. This suggests a potential shift in market perception. The overall market is in a 'melt-up' phase driven by AI and tech, but also shows signs of being overbought and exuberant, reminiscent of 2021. Mid-term election year seasonality suggests a potential pullback in Q3 before a Q4 rally. Inflation concerns are driving some commodity markets.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- SPX to 7300 in Q2, then 15-20% drawdown in Q3, then rally to 7700 in Q4.
- Watch for continued sector rotation from semiconductors to software.
- Risk management is key due to wild and potentially irrational market conditions.
- Sign up for the newsletter for free institutional-style insights.
- Check out courses for better understanding of market charts and 2026 outlook.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SPX, TSM, XLE, DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, NASDAQ 100, IGV, CAR, SSO, EWY, DXY, US500, QQQ, NVDA, KOSPI, URA, USOIL, XME, EEM, Gold, Copper, HSI1!, SNDK, NAS100, TSLA, ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-04-24 23:11:08*