# The Similarities Are Uncanny... **Date:** 2026-04-19 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxUWZWg305U) ## Main Thesis The market is currently in a late-stage cycle, showing uncanny similarities to the dot-com bubble, with strong rallies driven by tech and government spending, but also signs of potential volatility and a looming correction. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. SPX (weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH (LONG-TERM) **Pattern:** rally with potential for extreme volatility **Key Levels:** 7300 resistance, 6800 support, 6619.67 support, 6356.47 support **Historical Comparison:** 1999-2000 dot-com boom The chart compares the current SPX rally (2025-2026) to the dot-com boom (1999-2000). Both periods show strong upward trends, driven by new technologies (internet vs. AI/data centers). The current rally is described as looking very similar to the period before extreme volatility near the end of the dot-com rally. The speaker expects continued volatility for the rest of the year, with potential for two dips due to midterm elections. A target of 7300 is mentioned before a potential 15-20% fall. ### 2. MAGS (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM) **Pattern:** strong upward trend with recent dip and recovery **Key Levels:** 66.76 resistance, 62.50 support, 60.00 support The MAGS chart shows a strong upward trend, with a recent dip followed by a sharp recovery. The market was up significantly on Friday, with software and semiconductors performing well, while defensives were down. This suggests a continuation of the tech-driven rally. ### 3. TSLA (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** bullish breakout **Key Levels:** 400.62 resistance, 383.05 bullish breakout, 331.83 support Tesla's chart shows a bullish breakout above 383.05, with the price now at 400.62. The speaker notes that electric vehicles are becoming extremely popular due to rising fuel prices, which is likely to help Tesla's sales. The daily 20 moving average was also broken through this week. ### 4. S&P 500 - Yearly EPS Estimates (yearly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** upward trend in EPS estimates **Key Levels:** 375 EPS (2026) This chart from Duality Research shows a consistent upward trend in yearly EPS estimates for the S&P 500, with analysts feeling extremely bullish for each quarter of 2026. This is seen as contrary to the bearish sentiment often found in the press. ### 5. S&P 500 - Quarterly EPS Estimates (quarterly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** upward trend in quarterly EPS estimates **Key Levels:** 88.2 EPS (Q4 2026) Similar to the yearly estimates, quarterly EPS estimates for the S&P 500 are also showing a strong upward trajectory, reinforcing the bullish sentiment among Wall Street analysts for 2026. This is seen as a key factor for market rallies. ### 6. S&P 500 (Price vs. Forward P/E Ratio) (monthly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH **Pattern:** price making new highs while P/E ratio is lower than previous peaks **Key Levels:** Valuation Peak (Oct 2028), Price Peak (Jan 2029) The S&P 500 price has made new all-time highs, but the forward P/E ratio is still around 10% away from its peak valuation in October 2028. This suggests that while the market is high, it's not as overvalued as it has been in the past, implying there might still be room to run or that current valuations are considered 'cheap' by some metrics. ### 7. NASDAQ 100 (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM) **Pattern:** face ripper rally **Key Levels:** 12 consecutive days up The NASDAQ 100 has seen 12 consecutive days up, a 'face ripper rally' that historically tends to be followed by further rallies. This strong performance is attributed to government stimulus, defense spending, deregulation, AI CapEx, and fear of missing out (FOMO) driving IPOs. However, the speaker warns that big IPOs can sometimes mark a peaking of a sector. ### 8. S&P 500: 12%+ Gain Over a 13-Day Stretch (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO VOLATILE **Pattern:** momentum thrust **Historical Comparison:** since 1950 This chart shows that a 12%+ gain over a 13-day stretch in the S&P 500 has historically led to mixed results in the short term (less than a coin flip for positive returns in the next 5 days), but generally positive returns over 12 months. The speaker notes that due to the current 'late stage cycle' of the market, this thrust could lead to increased volatility. ### 9. S&P 500: 3+ All-Time High in April Could Mean the Peak Is Still Faaaaaaaar Away (yearly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH **Pattern:** multiple all-time highs in April **Historical Comparison:** since 1950 This chart suggests that years with 3+ all-time highs in April tend to see more positive movements later in the year. While some historical instances show weakness, the overall trend is positive. The speaker acknowledges both bullish and bearish interpretations, emphasizing the importance of considering both sides. ### 10. Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern (monthly) **Bias:** BEARISH (MID-YEAR) **Pattern:** seasonal pattern around midterm elections **Key Levels:** -15% to -20% dip **Historical Comparison:** 1918-2024 Historically, midterm election years tend to see a rally into April/May, followed by a fall into the middle of the year, potentially leading to 15-20% dips. The market often bottoms before the election itself. The speaker hints at an 'incredibly interesting' stat around the election that will be revealed later in the year. ### 11. Global CTA Positioning (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM) **Pattern:** massive rally in global equities **Historical Comparison:** Sept 2019, Nov 2023, Aug 2024 This chart shows a massive rally in global CTA positioning, with 70 billion dollars of equities bought over the last 5 sessions. This indicates a significant influx of capital into the market, driving prices up. The speaker notes that the market was 'super under-invested' before this rally. ### 12. KAV - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** dark pool cluster, low steal **Key Levels:** 82.25 The software sector (IGV) has seen significant improvement over the last week, picking up after a 'huge dark pool cluster' and 'low steal' event. This suggests institutional buying at lower levels, leading to a rally. Software is now performing as one of the best sectors over the last 5 days, contrasting with semiconductors. ### 13. SNDK - Sandisk Corporation (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM), POTENTIALLY PEAKING **Pattern:** ballistic rally with large trades **Key Levels:** 921.00 resistance, 755.70 support, 709.70 support Sandisk has experienced a 'ballistic' rally, with the number one largest trade going through recently. The speaker notes that clusters of large trades have historically been followed by periods of weakness, raising the question of whether this marks the end of a semiconductor run. ### 14. CAR - Avis Budget Group, Inc. (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM), POTENTIALLY PEAKING **Pattern:** squeeze similar to 2021 **Key Levels:** 445.15 resistance, 100.00 support **Historical Comparison:** 2021 Avis is showing squeezes and rallies similar to 2021, with significant activity in IPO and private equity markets. This suggests a lot of speculative activity and potential for a blow-off top, similar to previous periods of market exuberance. ### 15. XLE - Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH **Pattern:** largest dark pool sweep, gap down and rally **Key Levels:** 56.54 resistance, 40.00 support Energy (XLE) saw the largest dark pool sweep, suggesting institutional buying. After the announcement of the strait being opened, it gapped down but then rallied back up to the same trade area. The question is whether this is a 'low steal' trap that will rally out, or if Wall Street will use this rally to dump energy stocks. ### 16. EWY - iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH **Pattern:** Mickey Mouse pattern **Key Levels:** 138.82 resistance, 126.00 support, 83.20 support The Kospi (South Korean market) is showing a 'Mickey Mouse pattern' and has seen a doubling of its value since June of last year. The speaker expresses personal concern about this market, suggesting it might be close to topping, despite potentially making a new high. ### 17. What Happened to Semiconductors After a Momentum Thrust? (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** momentum thrust followed by sideways to up markets **Historical Comparison:** since 2011 This chart shows that after a 2-day rally of 8%+ (a momentum thrust) in semiconductors, the average return after 63 days is +12.11% with an 88% win rate. This suggests that when semis find thrusts, it tends to lead to more bullish cases and sideways to upward markets. This explains the current market's strong performance. ### 18. DXY - US Dollar Index Futures (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** tapped into support area **Key Levels:** 98.995 resistance, 97.900 support, 97.520 support The Dollar Index tapped into a support area where it was expected to find buying pressure. The speaker notes that while it won't create instantaneous momentum flows, it did hit the support. The focus is on setting up future levels to observe how the market reacts. ### 19. US500 - S&P 500 Index (2-hour) **Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM), POTENTIAL FOR PULLBACK **Pattern:** aggressive rally **Key Levels:** 7187.6 (options high level), 7063.1 (options low level), 6842.7 (most traded zone) The S&P 500 has seen a 13% rally from its recent low, an 'extremely fast rally'. There's a 20 and 50 cross, and many indicators align with 6800. The market is currently in a series of higher highs and higher lows, but the speaker questions whether there are too many call options at the top, which could lead to a pullback to the 6800-6842.7 zone. ### 20. US2000 - US 2000 Index (2-hour) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** incredibly strong rally **Key Levels:** 2777.4 resistance, 2438.6 first major target The Russell 2000 is also incredibly strong, showing a series of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting that pullbacks will be met by bull demand, regardless of macro opinions. This indicates broad market strength beyond just large-cap tech. ### 21. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM) **Pattern:** positive gamma **Key Levels:** 7200 call resistance, 6800 put support, 7125 spot price The SPX is in positive gamma, strengthening the upward and hedging case. 7200 is now the most struck call resistance, with 7090-7100 being the call wall. The market is betting on continued stimulus, Fed support, deregulation, government spending, and re-industrialization, which provides liquidity and drives prices up. The speaker questions the sustainability of such aggressive stimulus into inflation. ### 22. Net GEX All Expirations for TSLA (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM) **Pattern:** big breakout level **Key Levels:** 400 call resistance, 390 put support, 400.6 spot price Tesla's GEX chart shows 400 as a significant call resistance, which the spot price ended up just on. This week's earnings result is crucial. The speaker notes that people are likely buying EVs globally, which is positive for Tesla. The market is starting to realize that people are buying EVs, leading to decent forward guidance. Tesla is also releasing its Model Y 6-seater globally, which is expected to come to America soon. Tesla has been in the doldrums recently, but 400 is a big breakout level in the gamma side. ### 23. Net GEX All Expirations for NVDA (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM) **Pattern:** massive call walls **Key Levels:** 200 call resistance, 190 put support Nvidia's GEX chart shows massive call walls at 200, indicating strong resistance at that level. This suggests that while there's bullish sentiment, there's also significant hedging or profit-taking interest at higher price points. ### 24. Net GEX All Expirations for IBIT (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH **Pattern:** dropped back down after breaking resistance **Key Levels:** 42-43 resistance, 44.00 price IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) broke through the important 42-43 resistance and went to 44, but then sold off a little bit. It's still above the previous resistance, but the speaker notes that Bitcoin open has dropped back down. This suggests some weakness after the initial breakout. ### 25. IGV - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** break above previous low, change in small timeframe trend **Key Levels:** 88.58 resistance, 85.08 support Software (IGV) has shown significant improvements over the last week, managing to get back above its previous low (a 'super deal'). There's massive volume and a change in the small timeframe trend. The market may now battle with the 88-90 zone, which is an important level. ### 26. IGV/SPY (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** improving relative strength **Key Levels:** 0.1572 resistance, 0.1198 support Software (IGV) has been improving versus the S&P 500 (SPY), indicating relative strength. While it hasn't seen a significant change, the trend is positive, suggesting that software is outperforming the broader market. ### 27. SNDK - Sandisk Corporation (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM), POTENTIALLY TOPPING **Pattern:** crazy rally **Key Levels:** 920.99 price, 42.41 (August last year) Sandisk has experienced a 'crazy rally', going from 42.41 in August last year to 920.99. The speaker highlights the extreme nature of this rally, suggesting it might be unsustainable in the long term. ### 28. KOSPI - KOSPI Composite Index (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH (PERSONAL OPINION) **Pattern:** over-doubling of value, potential topping **Key Levels:** 6191.92 resistance, 5273.26 support, 4857.50 support The South Korean market (KOSPI) has seen an 'over-doubling' of its value since June. The speaker's personal opinion is that it's probably close to topping, despite potentially making a new high. This market 'scares me more than any other market out there'. ### 29. URA - Global X Uranium ETF (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** breakout of downward trendline **Key Levels:** 55.86 resistance, 52.38 support Uranium (URA) has seen a breakout over the last week, breaking through its downward trendline and above the 52 area. This indicates a bullish shift in momentum for the commodity. ### 30. XLE - Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH **Pattern:** demand zone hit, weekly mean reversion **Key Levels:** 57.71 resistance, 55.02 demand zone Energy (XLE) came down to an important demand zone (55.02) and hit the weekly 20 (weekly mean reversion), which it hasn't done in a while. It then came up and filled the gap between the low and this area. The question is whether Wall Street will use this rally to dump energy stocks or if it's a 'low steal' trap that will rally out. The number one trade was around 55. ### 31. XME - State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** break up of overall downward trendline **Key Levels:** 117.60 price Metals and Mining (XME) has seen a break up of its overall downward trendline, indicating a bullish shift. This suggests strength in the commodities sector. ### 32. EEM - iShares MSCI Emerging Index Fund (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** upward trend **Key Levels:** 63.64 price Emerging markets (EEM) are doing very well, showing a strong upward trend. This suggests global economic recovery or increased investor confidence in these markets. ### 33. HSII - Hang Seng Index Futures (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** slow breakout, close above previous highs **Key Levels:** 26502 price, 26209 support, 27000 resistance, 28000 resistance The Chinese markets (Hang Seng) are showing a 'slow breakout' with a close above previous highs, suggesting a potential move towards 27,000 and 28,000. The weekly closures are not looking negative, indicating continued bullish momentum. ### 34. NASDAQ 100 Cash CFD (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM), POTENTIAL FOR HIGH VOLATILITY **Pattern:** ballistic move, huge amount of days up in a row **Key Levels:** 26696.2 price, 21871.4 resistance 1 **Historical Comparison:** 2000-style overlay The NASDAQ has been 'ballistic', with a huge amount of days up in a row. While all good things eventually come down, the question is when. The speaker warns that it could get very volatile if a 2000-style overlay is truly playing out, which he personally believes is similar. ### 35. ETH/USDT - Ethereum/TetherUS (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** break high, series of higher highs and higher lows **Key Levels:** 2368.97 resistance, 2346.07 price, 2171.72 retail steal, 1896.35 support Ethereum has made a break high with a solid closure, and is still seeing a series of higher highs and higher lows, even with the news of the strait being closed. The speaker notes that while every time is slightly different, the current trend is positive. He also mentions that when everyone starts talking about it, it usually provides a different chart. ### 36. BTC/USDT - Bitcoin/TetherUS (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** rejected at weekly 20, series of higher highs and higher lows **Key Levels:** 75608.09 price, 78826.39 resistance, 74824.59 resistance, 71369.22 support, 91653.37 second buy zone Bitcoin managed to get back to the weekly 20, where it was probably no surprise it rejected. It was right around the 78k level. If it gets through there, there's not much on the left-hand side, which could take it back into 89k. This is encouraging for Bitcoin traders, with a series of higher highs and higher lows, large accumulation, and good data stats from the COT report. It looks more promising than it has in quite some time. ### 37. NZD - CPI q/q (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL New Zealand's CPI quarter-over-quarter data is due on Monday, April 20th. ### 38. GBP - Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index 3m/y, Unemployment Rate (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL UK employment data, including Claimant Count Change, Average Earnings Index, and Unemployment Rate, is due on Tuesday, April 21st. ### 39. CNY - Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Tentative data for China's Foreign Direct Investment year-to-date/year is expected on Tuesday, April 21st. ### 40. EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, ZEW Economic Sentiment (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL German economic data, including a speech by the German Buba President Nagel and ZEW Economic Sentiment, is due on Tuesday, April 21st. ### 41. USD - ADP Weekly Employment Change, Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, Fed Chair-Designate Warsh Testifies, Pending Home Sales m/m, Business Inventories m/m (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL US economic data, including ADP Weekly Employment Change, Core Retail Sales, Retail Sales, a testimony by Fed Chair-Designate Warsh, Pending Home Sales, and Business Inventories, is due on Tuesday, April 21st. The Fed Chair's testimony is highlighted as a significant event. ### 42. NZD - GDT Price Index (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Tentative data for New Zealand's GDT Price Index is expected on Tuesday, April 21st. ### 43. CHF - Gov Board Member Tschudin Speaks (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL A speech by a Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board Member Tschudin is due on Tuesday, April 21st. ### 44. USD - FOMC Member Waller Speaks, API Weekly Statistical Bulletin (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL A speech by FOMC Member Waller and the API Weekly Statistical Bulletin are due on Tuesday, April 21st. ### 45. JPY - Trade Balance (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Japan's Trade Balance data is due on Wednesday, April 22nd. ### 46. AUD - MI Leading Index m/m (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Australia's MI Leading Index month-over-month data is due on Wednesday, April 22nd. ### 47. GBP - CPI y/y, Core CPI y/y, PPI Input m/m, PPI Output m/m, RPI y/y (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL UK inflation data, including CPI, Core CPI, PPI Input/Output, and RPI, is due on Wednesday, April 22nd. ### 48. GBP - MPC Member Breeden Speaks (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL A speech by an MPC Member Breeden is due on Wednesday, April 22nd. ### 49. CAD - HPI m/m, NHPI m/m, Consumer Confidence (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Canadian housing and consumer confidence data, including HPI, NHPI, and Consumer Confidence, is due on Wednesday, April 22nd. ### 50. USD - Crude Oil Inventories (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL US Crude Oil Inventories data is due on Wednesday, April 22nd. ### 51. EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks, ECB President Lagarde Speaks (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Speeches by German Buba President Nagel and ECB President Lagarde are due on Wednesday, April 22nd. ### 52. AUD - Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Australian Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI data is due on Wednesday, April 22nd. ### 53. JPY - Flash Manufacturing PMI (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Japan's Flash Manufacturing PMI data is due on Wednesday, April 22nd. ### 54. NZD - Credit Card Spending y/y (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL New Zealand's Credit Card Spending year-over-year data is due on Wednesday, April 22nd. ### 55. GBP - Public Sector Net Borrowing (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL UK Public Sector Net Borrowing data is due on Thursday, April 23rd. ### 56. EUR - French Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL European Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI data for France and Germany, as well as broader Eurozone Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI, is due on Thursday, April 23rd. ### 57. GBP - CBI Industrial Order Expectations (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations data is due on Thursday, April 23rd. ### 58. CAD - IPPI m/m, RMPI m/m (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Canadian IPPI and RMPI month-over-month data is due on Thursday, April 23rd. ### 59. USD - Unemployment Claims, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Flash Services PMI, Natural Gas Storage (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL US Unemployment Claims, Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI, and Natural Gas Storage data is due on Thursday, April 23rd. ### 60. EUR - German Buba President Nagel Speaks, GfK Consumer Confidence (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL A speech by German Buba President Nagel and GfK Consumer Confidence data are due on Thursday, April 23rd. ### 61. JPY - National Core CPI y/y, SPPI y/y (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Japanese National Core CPI and SPPI year-over-year data is due on Friday, April 24th. ### 62. GBP - Retail Sales m/m (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL UK Retail Sales month-over-month data is due on Friday, April 24th. ### 63. CHF - SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks, German Ifo Business Climate (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL A speech by SNB Chairman Schlegel and German Ifo Business Climate data are due on Friday, April 24th. ### 64. CAD - Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Canadian Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales month-over-month data is due on Friday, April 24th. ### 65. EUR - Belgian NBB Business Climate (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL Belgian NBB Business Climate data is due on Friday, April 24th. ### 66. USD - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment data is due on Friday, April 24th. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is in a late-stage cycle, characterized by strong tech-driven rallies, high investor optimism (despite bearish press), and significant government spending/stimulus. There are comparisons to the dot-com boom, suggesting potential for extreme volatility. The speaker emphasizes the importance of earnings and flows, noting that institutional investors are driving much of the current buying. The overall sentiment is that while short-term bullishness may continue, the long-term outlook is uncertain due to potential inflation and market integrity concerns. ## Key Calls & Predictions - SPX could reach 7300 before a 15-20% fall. - Expect extreme volatility in the markets for the rest of the year. - Software and semiconductors are currently strong, but a rotation into other sectors might be due. - Tesla's sales are expected to be boosted by the popularity of EVs. - Watch for big IPOs as they can sometimes mark a peaking of a sector. - The market is currently 'ultra optimistic' due to government stimulus, defense spending, deregulation, AI CapEx, and FOMO. - The Dollar Index hit a key support level, suggesting potential buying pressure. - The S&P 500's aggressive rally could lead to a pullback to the 6800-6842.7 zone. - Bitcoin looks more promising than it has in quite some time, with potential to reach 89k if it breaks through 78k resistance. - The Kospi (South Korean market) is likely close to topping, despite its recent doubling in value. ## All Instruments Mentioned SPX, MAGS, TSLA, SNDK, CAR, XLE, EWY, DXY, US500, US2000, NVDA, IBIT, IGV, SPY, URA, XME, EEM, HSII, NASDAQ 100, ETH/USDT, BTC/USDT, NZD, GBP, CNY, EUR, USD, CHF, JPY, AUD, CAD --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-04-24 23:09:26*