# Stock Market Expectations Are Getting Insane…
**Date:** 2026-04-21  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i12WCJUE4zM)

## Main Thesis
The market is showing signs of exhaustion and overextension, particularly in tech and semiconductors, despite strong earnings and bullish sentiment from some analysts. While a pullback is likely, the overall long-term trend remains bullish, especially for commodities like silver due to central bank buying.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH FOR SHORT-TERM PULLBACK
**Pattern:** strong upward rally
**Key Levels:** 7109.13 current price, 6811.80 potential support

The SPX has seen a massive rally, with Michael Burry being bearish and Tom Lee predicting one of the best periods in our life for the next 1.5-2 years, driven by retail investors. Atkinson notes the speed of the rally is a concern, and a pullback to 6811.80 (most traded level) is possible if something goes wrong with negotiations or the new Fed chair. Volume has been low during recent rallies, indicating potential weakness.

### 2. SILVER (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend
**Key Levels:** 79.0367 current price, 89.2023 previous high

China is buying extreme amounts of silver, with imports in March 2026 being the highest ever. This, combined with central banks continuing to buy, suggests a good future for silver, especially on the demand side.

### 3. AAPL (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward trend
**Key Levels:** 273.05 current price

Tim Cook stepping down as Apple CEO after overseeing massive growth from $350 billion to $4 trillion market cap and $108 billion to $400 billion+ in revenue. Atkinson misses Steve Jobs' keynotes.

### 4. S&P 1500 Moving Average Breadth Dashboard (daily)

**Bias:** MIXED

Shows strong breadth in Consumer Cyclicals and Real Estate, with Technology also doing well. Defensive sectors and Energy are not performing as well, with Energy in decline for the last couple of weeks. This indicates a market with opportunities but also concerns.

### 5. Earnings Releases by Implied Movement (Week of April 20th) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

Tuesday has big earnings announcements. Wednesday is key with Tesla and IBM. Moody's is also reporting. Expected moves for Tesla are less volatile than previous quarters, suggesting the market is feeling resilient and cool with the current price.

### 6. S&P 500 Yearly EPS Estimates (yearly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend

Wall Street estimates for S&P 500 EPS are moving upwards, and they have been correct so far. Businesses are going wild with purchasing data centers and starting infrastructure, even sourcing second-hand parts, indicating strong demand.

### 7. S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Estimates (quarterly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend

Quarterly EPS estimates for the S&P 500 are also showing a strong upward trend, reinforcing the bullish sentiment based on earnings.

### 8. S&P 500 Price vs. Forward P/E Ratio (daily)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** price rally, P/E ratio decline
**Key Levels:** 100 price peak, 90.39 forward P/E ratio

The S&P 500 price has rallied significantly, but the forward P/E ratio is still cheaper than previous highs due to upward earnings revisions. The speed of the rally is a concern, as rapid gains often precede pullbacks.

### 9. S&P 500 Performance After Netscape v/s ChatGPT Launch (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** similar market behavior post-tech launches
**Historical Comparison:** Netscape Launch (1994/12/15) vs. ChatGPT Launch (2022/11/30)

This chart overlays the S&P 500 performance after the Netscape launch and the ChatGPT launch, showing eerily similar patterns. If the pattern continues, a market rally followed by a dump (15-20%) and then a historic rally could be in store, aligning with Tom Lee's predictions and the typical mid-term election year pattern.

### 10. Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH FOR MID-YEAR, BULLISH FOR YEAR-END
**Pattern:** seasonal pattern
**Historical Comparison:** 1949-1994 average

Historically, midterm election years tend to see a hump into May, followed by a significant drop-off (a very bad period for markets) leading into the elections, and then a rally after the elections. This suggests a potential mid-year pullback.

### 11. Sector Performance (5 days) (intraday)

**Bias:** MIXED

Software has been the best performer over the last 5 days, while defensive sectors have been flat or down. This is counter to the semiconductor trade, raising questions about which trend will prevail. A lot of gamma/risk-on sectors are up, while old defensive sectors are down.

### 12. Shares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation after drop
**Key Levels:** 85.00 resistance, 80.00 support

IGV has seen tons of transactions coming into software, with big dark pool trades. The market is seeing a lot of exhaustion and big trades near these highs.

### 13. Semiconductors After a Momentum Thrust (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** momentum thrust followed by sideways/downward movement
**Historical Comparison:** average return after 63 days since 2011

After a momentum thrust, semiconductors tend to move sideways or sometimes down. This suggests that the current strong rally might be followed by a period of consolidation or correction, with a lot of exhaustion and big trades coming in near highs.

### 14. US Dollar Index Futures (DX1!) (2-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** higher high, then dip
**Key Levels:** 98.175 higher high, 97.550 support

The Dollar Index formed a small higher high on the 2-hour chart and then dipped back. It's consolidating around 97.895. Not a strong chart, but it did hit the expected area after dropping underneath.

### 15. US Dollar Index Futures (DX1!) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BULLISH ON SMALL TIMEFRAMES
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs on higher timeframes
**Key Levels:** 98.960 resistance, 98.175 higher high, 97.550 support

On daily timeframe, the Dollar Index shows a series of lower lows and lower highs, but the small timeframes are slightly more bullish than a few sessions ago.

### 16. S&P 500 Index (SPX) (4-hour)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH FOR PULLBACK
**Pattern:** very big rally, destroyed resistance
**Key Levels:** 7109.13 current price, 6830.67 most traded level

The S&P 500 has seen a very big rally, destroying resistance levels without stopping. The speed of this rally is a concern, as Wall Street tends to seek better prices. A pullback to 6830.67 (most traded level) is possible.

### 17. US 500 Index (US500) (weekly)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** huge rally thrust
**Key Levels:** 7176.4 options high level, 7131.9 options high level today, 7045.2 options low level today

The US500 has seen a huge rally thrust. The volume on these last rallies has been quite low, even for normal rally standards, which could indicate potential weakness. Areas to watch are 6800-6850.

### 18. US 500 Index (US500) (daily)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** huge rally thrust
**Key Levels:** 7176.4 options high level, 7132.1 options high level today, 7045.2 options low level today

The US500 has seen a huge rally thrust. The volume on these last rallies has been quite low, even for normal rally standards, which could indicate potential weakness. Areas to watch are 6800-6850.

### 19. US 500 Index (US500) (2-hour)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** aggressive rally, bouncing off 50-period moving average
**Key Levels:** 7176.4 options high level, 7131.9 options high level today, 7045.2 options low level today, 7050 (50-period moving average)

The US500 has been very aggressive, bouncing off the 50-period moving average on the 2-hour chart (around 7050). A lot of people do not like such a fierce rally, as it makes buying the dip risky. A deeper pullback is possible.

### 20. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive gamma, call wall
**Key Levels:** 7200 call resistance, 6800 put support

There is only one put zone around 6800. Options show positive gamma, meaning there are calls everywhere. The market went from bearish to super bullish, with a 7150-7200 call wall across most expirations. To get through these areas, a piece of news is usually needed.

### 21. Net GEX All Expirations for TSLA (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** massive call wall
**Key Levels:** 400 call resistance, 350 put support

Tesla has a massive call wall at 400 across all expirations. It could enter into positive gamma if it has really good earnings, leading to a squeeze.

### 22. Net GEX All Expirations for NVDA (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** call wall
**Key Levels:** 200 call wall, 180 put support

Nvidia is sitting at the 200 call wall (or 202 call wall). It has seen a very strong recovery, and 200 is a big psychological level. It has never managed to close above 202 on a weekly basis, making it an interesting point of resistance.

### 23. US High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** no real reads
**Key Levels:** 80.98 resistance

The bond market has not freaked out, with no real reads of concern. It's still in a series of higher highs and higher lows.

### 24. US Government Bonds 2 Yr Yield (US02Y) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH ON YIELDS
**Pattern:** declining yields
**Key Levels:** 3.720% current yield

Yields are declining with a series of lower lows and lower highs, suggesting a potential rate cut might be coming, which would be surprising given inflation.

### 25. CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI) (USOIL) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 85.747 support, 84.873 support

US Oil is making a series of lower lows and lower highs, hitting support levels. While there have been massive transactions on oil stocks, oil itself is not showing higher highs. The question is whether it can reclaim levels like 98 a barrel.

### 26. SPDR Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 55.07 current price

XLE Energy is showing no higher highs, still a series of lower lows and lower highs. A big transaction went through at 55.07, and it's now at the bottom of the demand range, making the next 24-48 hours interesting.

### 27. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward trend
**Key Levels:** 463.96 current price

SMH, the backbone of the US market, has been very strong, with semiconductors and most related stocks being up. Until this changes, the market is generally bullish. However, it looks exhausted.

### 28. Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** exhausted rally
**Key Levels:** 448.42 current price

MU is getting huge revisions and is back at resistance. It looks exhausted, showing up in many different places on these markets.

### 29. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** rally, potential pullback
**Key Levels:** 376.66 area to watch, 331.83 potential support

Ahead of earnings, areas to watch for Tesla include the 20-period moving average on the way down. A pullback from the top could be an area of interest, likely post-earnings or in the next 24 hours.

### 30. Gold (XAUUSD) (2-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** lackluster upward trend, putting pressure on downside
**Key Levels:** 4794.64 current price, 4726.77 support

Despite central banks buying tons of gold, it has been a bit lackluster, slowly going up but putting pressure on the downside. It's hitting the 50-period moving average on the 4-hour chart.

### 31. Silver (XAGUSD) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** consolidation, then upward movement
**Key Levels:** 79.2380 current price, 78.1364 support (50-period moving average)

Silver has come down and hit the 50-period moving average on the 4-hour chart a few times, sitting around 78.20. It has seen strong central bank buying, which could indicate long-term investors are feeling better about it.

### 32. Hang Seng Index (HSI1!) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 26642 current price, 26204 support

Chinese markets are showing a series of higher highs and higher lows, with bullish intention. It could move to 27000 or even 28000 as markets pick up.

### 33. US 100 Cash CFD (NAS100) (2-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH, BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR FIERCE VOLATILITY
**Pattern:** very bullish, no pullbacks
**Key Levels:** 26699.9 current price, 25709.4 support (50-period moving average)

Nasdaq is extremely bullish, with no pullbacks. It's getting faster and faster. When volatility eventually hits, it's going to be fierce, possibly because a lot of people are offside on these charts.

### 34. Ethereum/TetherUS (ETHUSDT) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** attempted breakout
**Key Levels:** 2395.77 retail steal

Ethereum tried to break up but is still generally in a pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

### 35. Bitcoin/TetherUS (BTCUSDT) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** struggling under minor resistance
**Key Levels:** 78911.71 minor resistance, 90123.05 potential target

Bitcoin is still struggling just under the 79k mark. If it breaks this zone, there's not much resistance on the left-hand side, suggesting a potential move to 89k or 90k.

### 36. Bitcoin/TetherUS (BTCUSDT) (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding structure, 50-period moving average as theme
**Key Levels:** 78911.71 minor resistance, 90123.05 potential target

Bitcoin is still holding its structure as it moves up, with the 4-hour 50-period moving average being a key theme. If it gets through 79k, there's not much resistance on the left, suggesting a potential move to 89k or 90k.

### 37. Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** exhausted rally
**Key Levels:** 913.02 current price

SNDK, a hardware stock, has been rallying but looks exhausted at this point.

### 38. Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** crazy upward movement
**Key Levels:** 35.07 current price

DRAM, a new ETF, has gone crazy in just a few days, showing real demand for hardware. However, it looks exhausted.

### 39. Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** short squeeze, parabolic move
**Key Levels:** 608.80 current price

CAR has seen an absolutely wild short squeeze, up 23%. This is not what you want to see in an early cycle market. The available float is tiny, and everyone is against it, making it a dangerous short.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is exhibiting signs of exhaustion across several hot sectors, including semiconductors, data centers (RAM), and the S&P 500 itself. This level of exhaustion, especially past key resistance levels, often precedes a pullback. The speed of the current rallies is a significant concern. While some analysts predict a 'best period in our life' driven by retail investors, historical patterns for midterm election years suggest a mid-year drop before a year-end rally. Central banks are actively buying commodities like silver, indicating a long-term bullish outlook for these assets. Bond yields are declining, hinting at potential rate cuts despite inflation. The overall narrative is that while earnings estimates are strong and markets are resilient, the underlying flow and technical exhaustion suggest caution.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- A short-term pullback in the SPX to around 6811.80 is possible due to market exhaustion and rapid gains.
- Silver is a good long-term buying opportunity due to extreme central bank and industrial demand from China.
- Semiconductors and tech stocks are showing signs of exhaustion, and a period of consolidation or correction is likely after their momentum thrust.
- A rate cut might be coming due to declining bond yields, which could be initially positive but potentially problematic for inflation.
- Bitcoin could move to 89k-90k if it breaks above 79k resistance.
- Avoid shorting stocks like CAR that are experiencing extreme short squeezes, as this is a sign of an overextended market, not an early cycle.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SPX, SILVER, AAPL, S&P 1500 Moving Average Breadth Dashboard, Earnings Releases by Implied Movement, S&P 500 Yearly EPS Estimates, S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Estimates, S&P 500 Price vs. Forward P/E Ratio, S&P 500 Performance After Netscape v/s ChatGPT Launch, Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern, Sector Performance, IGV, Semiconductors After a Momentum Thrust, DX1!, US500, TSLA, HYG, US02Y, USOIL, XLE, SMH, MU, NVDA, ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT, SNDK, DRAM, CAR, HSI1!, NAS100, Gold

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-04-24 23:06:10*