# Is This Going To Continue For Markets?
**Date:** 2026-04-22  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zRhysXNGawA)

## Main Thesis
Markets are showing signs of exhaustion in key sectors, with underlying earnings and macro storylines indicating potential weakness despite current bullish sentiment driven by AI hype and government spending. Risk management is crucial as markets may become more volatile.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. US500, 2h (2h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** double top possibility, bounce off 50 EMA
**Key Levels:** 7,151.8 resistance, 7,107.4 support, 7,063.7 support, 6,795.0 support

The US500 has bounced off the 50 exponential moving average (EMA) on the 2-hour chart three times, leading to a 'face ripper rally'. Now, hitting it a fourth time, there are signs of exhaustion. A potential double top is forming on smaller timeframes. While an initial bounce is expected, the question is whether it will achieve a higher high. If it does, it could lead to positive gamma in markets. If it drops below, it could open up floodgates to 6800.

### 2. XLE (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** picking up
**Key Levels:** 56.94 key resistance, 55.87 current price, 48.55 support

Energy stocks have been picking up, contrary to media reports. The chart shows a recent upward movement, testing the 56.94 key resistance level.

### 3. TSLA (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downward trend, potential bounce
**Key Levels:** 437.03 most traded zone, 386.42 resistance, 376.66 first key support, 331.83 support

Tesla is in a downward trend. The question is whether it will head towards the most traded zone (437.03), first key support (376.66), or even lower (331.83). Earnings are due in the next 24 hours, which will be a significant event.

### 4. CAR (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT SQUEEZE)
**Pattern:** short squeeze, parabolic rise
**Key Levels:** 713.97 current price, 100.00 previous support
**Historical Comparison:** 2021 territory

Avis Budget Group (CAR) has experienced a massive short squeeze, rising from less than $100 a few months ago to over $700. This is reminiscent of 2021 and highlights the importance of risk management in markets. This is happening as companies switch to AI, becoming 'worth more' overnight, which can be a sign of froth entering markets.

### 5. Home Sellers vs Buyers (yearly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** upward trend in sellers
**Key Levels:** 46.3% more sellers than buyers

There are nearly 50% more home sellers than buyers, a worrying trend in the housing market. This could lead to forced sales of Airbnbs and rentals if people lose jobs, as cash flow for investors is weakening due to interest repayments.

### 6. US Pending Home Sales (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** plunge, historically low
**Key Levels:** 73.7 current index, 75.0 last crash level
**Historical Comparison:** worst pending sales for March

US pending home sales beat expectations in March according to Reuters, but a different chart from reventure shows that homebuyer demand plunged to the worst pending sales for March, reaching levels similar to the 'last crash'. Seasonally, sales usually go up during this period. The key point is that despite the 'beat expectations' headline, the underlying data shows a market that has been bad for quite some time, raising concerns about a potential global financial crisis if employment falters.

### 7. IGV (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** accumulation, upward movement
**Key Levels:** 85.00 resistance, 80.00 support, 75.00 support

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) has seen strong accumulation, with significant volume. This indicates money flow into software, which has been one of the strongest sectors in the last seven days, following semiconductors. This is a shift from the defensive, late-cycle market seen two months ago.

### 8. Most Anticipated Earnings Releases (weekly (April 20, 2026))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Tesla earnings
**Historical Comparison:** 2021 market dynamics

Tesla's earnings release after the close is a major event, with implied movement of +/- 6% based on options. The focus will be on future expectations rather than current data. This market is different from two months ago, driven by defensives and late-cycle trends. In 2021, big caps rallied after ARK funds dropped, leading to inflation. This time, we face similar, potentially worse, problems.

### 9. S&P 500 Yearly EPS Estimates (yearly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (WALL STREET ESTIMATES)
**Pattern:** upgrading estimates
**Key Levels:** 375 (2027 EPS), 340 (2026 EPS), 325 (2025 EPS), 273 (NTM EPS)

Wall Street analysts are aggressively upgrading S&P 500 EPS estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027. This shows extreme bullishness in expectations, with estimates looking 'even more wild' than before.

### 10. Technology Price Returns vs Forward EPS Growth (yearly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (FORWARD EPS GROWTH)
**Pattern:** accelerating EPS growth
**Key Levels:** +80% (price return), +60% (forward EPS growth)

Technology price returns are compared to 12-month forward EPS growth. Forward EPS growth is accelerating at an extreme rate, reaching +58%. The question is whether this acceleration is sustainable or if it's a sign of overheating, similar to past periods where excitement led to plateaus and subsequent drops.

### 11. S&P 500 Performance After Netscape v/s ChatGPT Launch (days since launch)

**Bias:** BULLISH (AI-DRIVEN)
**Pattern:** AI-driven market rally
**Historical Comparison:** Netscape launch (1994/12/15) vs ChatGPT launch (2022/11/30)

The S&P 500 performance after the ChatGPT launch is compared to the Netscape launch. The current market rally is attributed to a new hardware/AI cycle, similar to the dot-com era. While ChatGPT appears to be lagging Netscape's initial performance, there's a lot of new AI business and IPOs, creating excitement and driving markets based on 'false pretenses' or extreme expectations.

### 12. Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern (monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** seasonal headwind, potential second drop
**Key Levels:** 7300 (S&P 500)
**Historical Comparison:** 1960-2020 average

The chart shows the average percentage change for major indices (DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000) during midterm election years. We've seen an initial drop, followed by a rally, and now there's a possibility of a second drop, aligning with a 'seasonal headwind' period. This suggests markets could become more volatile, especially with current AI hype.

### 13. DXY (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM)
**Pattern:** bullish action, structural base
**Key Levels:** 98.960 resistance, 98.215 higher high, 98.175 support, 97.550 support

The US Dollar Index Futures (DXY) has held a good pattern, showing bullish action on short timeframes due to a structural base and hitting a significant level. It's currently moving against the general 'if it's in the press' sentiment. Short timeframes are bullish, while 4-hour, daily, and weekly timeframes look more negative. The market is relatively technical.

### 14. SPX (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** drop, potential retest of most traded level
**Key Levels:** 7,064.02 current price, 7,000.00 resistance, 6,830.67 most traded level

The S&P 500 (SPX) started to drop but is up in after-hours trading. The question is whether it will head towards the most traded level at 6,830.67. This was a very heavy zone, and if markets find big problems, this is where dark pools and correlations will be sought.

### 15. US500, 2h (2h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** bounces off 50 EMA, needs higher high
**Key Levels:** 7,132.7 resistance, 7,106.5 options high level today, 6,996.0 options low level today, 6,800.0 floodgates

The US500 on the 2-hour chart has bounced off the 50 EMA multiple times. While a bounce is expected, it needs to make a higher high to continue climbing the 'wall of worry'. If it drops below the current level, it could open up the '6800 floodgates'.

### 16. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (2026-04-21 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** put/call walls
**Key Levels:** 7200 call resistance, 6800 put support, 7064 spot price

The options market for SPX shows 7200 as the most struck call resistance and 6800 as the biggest put zone. For the next 24 hours, there are a lot of puts at 7050-7060, where the price currently is. 6800 comes up frequently in puts, and there are many calls around 7150, making it tough to break through that area.

### 17. Net GEX All Expirations for TSLA (2026-04-21 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** put/call walls
**Key Levels:** 400 call wall, 380 put support, 386.4 spot price

Tesla's options market shows a significant call wall at 400. We'll see how earnings impact this.

### 18. Net GEX All Expirations for NVDA (2026-04-21 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** call wall
**Key Levels:** 200 call wall, 190 put support, 199.88 spot price

Nvidia is struggling around the 200 call wall. This is a sign of exhaustion in semiconductors, which have been very strong.

### 19. Net GEX All Expirations for ETH (2026-04-21 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** call wall
**Key Levels:** 44 call wall, 42 put support, 43.51 spot price

Ethereum (ETH) has a big call wall at 44. Each level is becoming important, with 42, 43, and 45 all having significant calls, indicating a positive gamma possibility.

### 20. CAR (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH (DUE TO EXTREME GAINS)
**Pattern:** huge spikes, 3 weeks of monster gains
**Key Levels:** 713.97 current price, 153.78 previous resistance

Avis Budget Group (CAR) has seen huge spikes before, but this is now three consecutive weeks of 'monster' gains. This raises concerns about sustainability, as such outliers often lead to fireworks very soon. It's a good one to watch and understand for new market participants.

### 21. SPHB (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** risk-on market
**Key Levels:** 132.33 current price, 120.01 support, 104.90 support

The Invesco S&P 500 High Beta ETF (SPHB) shows a risk-on market, a significant shift from the sideways, defensive, and rotational market seen from September to March. This strong action is attributed to markets 'sniffing out' stimulus, leading to big earnings revisions and upgrades, plus tariff-related profits.

### 22. VIX (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** rising volatility
**Key Levels:** 19.49 current price, 20.00 resistance, 12.68 support

The Volatility S&P 500 Index (VIX) didn't quite close above 20 but is starting to rise, indicating increasing risk. This is part of the overall market narrative of earnings, earnings, earnings.

### 23. USOIL (2h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** lower highs and lower lows, at support
**Key Levels:** 97.692 resistance, 89.213 current price, 84.873 support

US Crude Oil (WTI) did not break through its series of lower highs and lower lows. It is currently at the 88-barrel plus support level. The weekly and daily charts show similar patterns, but it hasn't managed to change trend towards the upside.

### 24. XLE (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** pickup, no change of trend
**Key Levels:** 56.89 resistance, 55.87 current price, 54.18 support

Energy stocks (XLE) are seeing a bit of a pickup, which is encouraging for oil traders. However, there hasn't been a clear change of trend or a higher high yet. The number one transaction ever recorded in this area, according to Volume Leaders, is at the exact same price, but it's still below the 56.89 resistance.

### 25. SMH (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** exhausted, overbought
**Key Levels:** 464.66 current price, 441.77 support, 411.21 support

Semiconductors (SMH) are exhausted, showing heavy overbought signals on various indicators. They have worked their way towards resistance almost instantaneously, and now other sectors are picking up.

### 26. SNDK (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** overbought
**Key Levels:** 903.49 current price, 742.63 support, 683.76 support

SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) is also showing overbought conditions, similar to other data center stocks. This indicates potential exhaustion in the sector.

### 27. KOSPI (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** strong upward movement, potential top
**Key Levels:** 6,384.82 current price, 6,190.60 support, 5,818.87 support

The KOSPI Composite Index has been very strong, making higher highs. There's a feeling that 'someone knows something' here, suggesting a potential hype stage of the AI run. We'll be watching this market closely.

### 28. MU (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** signs of exhaustion at peak
**Key Levels:** 449.38 current price, 467.70 resistance, 400.00 support

Micron Technology (MU) is showing signs of exhaustion at its peak. Like other initial strong stocks, it has worked its way to resistance almost instantaneously.

### 29. NVDA (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** getting to 200 level
**Key Levels:** 199.88 current price, 200.00 resistance

Nvidia (NVDA) has also reached the 200 level, similar to other strong stocks. This is another example of exhaustion in the semiconductor sector.

### 30. IGV (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** tapped resistance, potential Wyckoff pattern
**Key Levels:** 88.38 resistance, 86.68 current price, 80.00 support

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) just tapped into resistance at 88.38. This is an area where some might take profits or bears might try to go against it. A Wyckoff pattern could be forming, and we'll see if it closes above this level soon.

### 31. TSLA (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** daily 20 support, potential rally
**Key Levels:** 386.42 resistance, 376.66 area to watch, 331.83 support

Tesla (TSLA) is at an interesting level, with the daily 20 moving average potentially acting as support. If it finds support and buys, it could rally towards 440, the most traded zone. This is a critical 24-hour period for Tesla, with earnings announcements often leading to movements towards key levels.

### 32. GOLD (2h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** below trendline, rallied back
**Key Levels:** 4,800.00 resistance, 4,757.59 current price, 4,726.77 support

Gold has dropped below its trendline but has rallied back up, coming closer to the most traded area. The 4800 level will be interesting to watch. It did drop the level in the previous video.

### 33. SILVER (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** weakened, series of higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 78.1364 current price, 80.0000 resistance, 76.0000 support

Silver has been bought by central banks, particularly China, but this doesn't instantly hit price. It dropped a key level but has a series of higher highs and higher lows on short timeframes. If it rallies back into the current point, it will be a question mark, similar to gold. Small timeframes are now more bearish than bullish.

### 34. HSI1! (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** down slightly, holding above support
**Key Levels:** 26,204 resistance, 26,139 current price, 25,716 support

Chinese stocks (Hang Seng Index) are down a little in the session (-1.33%) but are still holding above key levels. 25,700 could be a level to watch in the future.

### 35. ETHUSDT (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** at highs, not ripped as much as US market
**Key Levels:** 2,395.77 resistance, 2,361.82 retail steal, 2,200.00 support

Ethereum (ETHUSDT) is at its highs but hasn't 'ripped' as much as the US market or semiconductors. It's just kind of at those highs, and while it looks good on recovery, it hasn't seen the same explosive growth.

### 36. BTCUSDT (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 78,911.71 minor resistance, 77,465.32 current price, 74,184.23 support

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) is trying, doing a series of higher highs and higher lows, which is encouraging. If it breaks 79,000, it could go to 89,000, as there's very little supply on the left-hand side. This is encouraging for Bitcoin hodlers.

### 37. BTCUSDT (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BULLISH
**Pattern:** massive accumulation zones, potential flag bust
**Key Levels:** 78,911.71 minor resistance, 77,456.32 current price, 67,097.23 accumulation zone

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has seen massive accumulation zones based on COT reports and recent data. This is encouraging for Bitcoin hodlers. The question is whether this will get rid of all the bears saying it could be the beginning of a 'flag bust', similar to a false rally seen last time before a drop. At this point, it's a series of higher highs and higher lows, and it's better to react than predict.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is currently in a 'risk-on' phase, driven by AI hype, government spending, and earnings revisions. This is a shift from a defensive, late-cycle market. However, there are signs of exhaustion in key sectors like semiconductors and data centers, and underlying macro storylines (like the housing market) show weakness. The market is characterized by 'froth' and 'crazy expectations', reminiscent of 2021. DXY is showing short-term bullishness, while gold and silver have weakened. The overall sentiment is that while earnings are holding up and big tech is next, the current bullishness might be built on 'false pretenses' and could lead to increased volatility, especially in a midterm election year.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch for a higher high on US500 after its current bounce off the 50 EMA, otherwise, it could drop to 6800.
- Pay close attention to Tesla's earnings over the next 24 hours, focusing on future expectations.
- Be cautious of 'froth' in markets, as seen with Avis Budget Group's parabolic rise, and prioritize risk management.
- Monitor the housing market for potential weakness, as increased sellers and declining cash flow for investors could impact the broader economy.
- Observe the 7200 call resistance and 6800 put support levels for SPX in the options market.
- Watch the 400 call wall for Tesla and the 200 call wall for Nvidia in the options market, as these indicate potential exhaustion.
- Keep an eye on the 4800 level for Gold and the 80.00 level for Silver, as they have shown recent weakening.
- For Bitcoin, if it breaks 79,000, it could rally to 89,000 due to limited supply above.
- Be aware of the 'seasonal headwind' pattern for midterm election years, which suggests increased volatility in the coming months.

## All Instruments Mentioned
US500, XLE, TSLA, CAR, IGV, SPX, DXY, SPHB, VIX, USOIL, SMH, SNDK, KOSPI, MU, NVDA, GOLD, SILVER, HSI1!, ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-04-24 23:05:30*