# We Have Never Seen This Before…
**Date:** 2026-04-24  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfCD3UF74ew)

## Main Thesis
The market is showing signs of exhaustion and potential volatility, especially in semiconductors, despite strong earnings and continued bullish sentiment from Wall Street. Inflationary pressures from commodities, particularly oil and food, could complicate the Fed's rate decisions.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** 17 consecutive days up, long leg doji
**Key Levels:** 404.54 support
**Historical Comparison:** Longest rally ever seen on semiconductors

SMH has been up for 17 consecutive days, an unprecedented streak. Over the last two sessions, massive transactions from Wall Street have appeared on semiconductor ETFs. The chart shows a long leg doji, indicating potential exhaustion after hitting daily trend lines. This suggests a need for more detailed chart analysis.

### 2. UKOIL (Brent Crude Oil) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout
**Key Levels:** 103.38 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Oil breaking out could signal increased volatility. The chart shows UKOIL approaching and potentially breaking above the 103.38 resistance level. This upward movement in oil prices is a significant factor for inflation.

### 3. INTC (Intel Corporation) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** gap up after earnings
**Key Levels:** 79.63 after-hours resistance, 66.78 previous close
**Historical Comparison:** null

Intel was a 'blockbuster' after its earnings report, up 20% in after-hours trading, reaching 79.63 USD. This strong performance is highlighted as part of the ongoing earnings season kick-off in tech.

### 4. SPX (S&P 500 Index) categorized by sectors and industries (daily)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** mixed performance, with semiconductors showing strength
**Historical Comparison:** null

A heatmap of the S&P 500 shows mixed performance across sectors, with some technology and semiconductor stocks in red, while others like consumer defensive and utilities are green. The speaker notes reaching 242,000 subscribers and mentions upcoming tech earnings, including Ford guidance.

### 5. SMH (VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS BULLISH
**Pattern:** longest rally, large cluster transactions
**Key Levels:** 480.00 resistance, 450.00 support, 420.00 support, 390.00 support, 370.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

SMH is shown with a 17-day consecutive rally, the longest ever. Large cluster transactions, including the number one largest transaction for SOXL (3x leveraged semiconductor ETF) and significant activity in MU, are noted. The chart shows the price pushing against daily trend lines, creating a long leg doji, suggesting potential exhaustion.

### 6. Semiconductor Index (SOX) (daily)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS BULLISH
**Pattern:** 17 consecutive days up
**Historical Comparison:** Unprecedented streak since the beginning of the semiconductor market.

The Semiconductor Index (SOX) is up 17 consecutive days, a record. While a previous large thrust in 2020 led to a 'pullback in time' (PIT) and sideways movement, the current situation is in uncharted territory, implying potential for unexpected volatility. Historically, 2/3 of the move is usually done by this point.

### 7. AI Winners & Losers (SPX Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH ON AI MEMORY AND DATA CENTERS
**Pattern:** strong upward trend in AI-related sectors
**Key Levels:** AI memory resistance, data centers resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart illustrates the performance of various AI-related sectors against the S&P 500. While AI semis are doing well, AI memory and data centers have gone 'more ballistic'. The speaker emphasizes focusing on AI memory stocks due to their exceptional performance, particularly in the South Korean market, which could drive the overall rally.

### 8. Semiconductors After a Momentum Thrust (SMH) (63 days before/after momentum thrust)

**Bias:** BULLISH (HISTORICALLY)
**Pattern:** momentum thrust leading to epic rally
**Historical Comparison:** Since 2011, SMH has an average return of +12.11% after 63 days following a momentum thrust, with an 89% win rate.

The chart shows that a momentum thrust in semiconductors (SMH) historically leads to an 'epic rally' with an average return of +12.11% over 63 days and an 89% win rate. The speaker notes that the current rally has 'overshot most people's expectations' and attributes it to strong earnings and 'huge spend' (CAPEX) in these markets.

### 9. Call/Put Ratio Activity (SPX) (daily (April 2024 - March 2026))

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS (DUE TO HIGH EUPHORIA)
**Pattern:** high call/put ratio, indicating euphoria
**Key Levels:** 6147 support, 6522 support, 6817 support, 7002 resistance, 7148 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The call/put ratio is at 1.50, indicating that people are getting 'ultra bullish' and buying calls. While not a timing tool, this high ratio suggests euphoria in the market. The speaker warns that Wall Street's 'rosy' future predictions and the 'earnings, earnings, earnings' narrative could lead to a 'dead cat bounce' or distribution patterns, similar to past situations like Enron.

### 10. Trimmed-Mean CPI YoY vs. Commodities (yearly (2000-2029))

**Bias:** BEARISH (INFLATIONARY PRESSURE)
**Pattern:** divergence between trimmed-mean CPI and commodities
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland's 16% Trimmed-Mean CPI year-over-year change (blue line) against the S&P GSCI Equal Weight Commodity Sector (yellow line). While the trimmed-mean CPI has been going down, commodities have been 'going wild', indicating potential inflationary pressure that the Fed might be 'behind'. This could lead to extreme deflation or 'sticky' inflation (stagflation).

### 11. Technology Price Returns vs Forward EPS Growth (S&P 500 Technology - SSINFT) (yearly (2006-2027))

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS (DUE TO ANALYST OVER-EXCITEMENT)
**Pattern:** price preceding earnings upgrades, current disconnect
**Key Levels:** +60% price return, +50% EPS growth
**Historical Comparison:** null

The chart shows technology price returns (purple) and 12-month forward EPS growth (green). Wall Street analysts are 'hecticly bullish' and upgrading earnings forecasts, with EPS growth projected at +58% and price returns at +50%. The speaker notes that price usually precedes upgrades, but this time there's a disconnect, with analysts pushing upgrades 'out of control', raising the question of whether they are 'getting too excited'.

### 12. DX1! (U.S. Dollar Index Futures) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend, approaching resistance
**Key Levels:** 98.175 higher high, 97.550 support, 98.960 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been rising almost every session, despite talks of interest rate cuts. This is a 'trade out of our day trading masterclass'. The 4-hour chart shows a 20/50 cross to the upside, indicating bullish momentum. The price is approaching the 98.960 resistance level.

### 13. DX1! (U.S. Dollar Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend, but not a confirmed trend change on higher timeframe
**Key Levels:** 98.175 higher high, 97.550 support, 98.960 resistance, 100.250 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

On the daily timeframe, the DXY shows a slight improvement but hasn't confirmed a trend change to the upside. A 'nice reaction' is seen, looking for a break to a higher high. The speaker suggests the dollar might go against popular opinion, but its long-term plan is difficult to ascertain as it's stuck in a large range.

### 14. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** hibernation/PIT (pullback in time)
**Key Levels:** 7050 support, 6830.67 most traded level
**Historical Comparison:** null

The S&P 500 has been moving 'up, down, up, down', currently in a 'PIT' (pullback in time) or hibernation phase. If the market drops through 7050, it could expose the 6800-6850 zone, which is the 'most traded level'. This is a key area for traders and investors to watch.

### 15. US500 (S&P 500 Index Futures) (2-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** trapped within a zone, holding 2-hour 50 moving average
**Key Levels:** 7176.7 options high level, 7040.8 options low level, 7050 support, 6800 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US500 futures market is trapped between options high and low levels. It continues to hold the 2-hour 50 moving average. It hasn't made a higher high yet. If it drops through the 7050 zone, it could head towards the 'anchored VWAP off the lows' at the 6800 zone.

### 16. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (2026-04-23 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (MARKET TRAPPED)
**Pattern:** call/put walls
**Key Levels:** 7200 call resistance, 6800 put support
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows Net GEX (Gamma Exposure) for all SPX expirations. 6800 is identified as the major all-expiration put wall, and call walls are around 7200. This explains why the market is currently 'trapped' within this price range.

### 17. Net GEX Expirations for QQQ (various expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (MARKET TRAPPED)
**Pattern:** call/put walls
**Key Levels:** 660 call resistance, 600 put support, 640-650 call zone
**Historical Comparison:** null

Similar to SPX, QQQ shows call/put walls. 600 is the major put wall, and 640-650 is where most calls are. If the market falls through this area, it could enter negative gamma, which hasn't been seen for several weeks.

### 18. Net GEX Expirations for NVDA (various expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (MARKET TRAPPED)
**Pattern:** call/put walls
**Key Levels:** 200 call zone, 375-376 put zone
**Historical Comparison:** null

NVIDIA is struggling, with 200 being a significant call zone. The speaker notes it's not the time for NVIDIA compared to other semiconductors. The chart shows 375-376 as a key put zone. The question is whether a Bitcoin squeeze will occur, which hasn't happened in a while.

### 19. Net GEX Expirations for IBIT (various expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (MARKET TRAPPED)
**Pattern:** call/put walls
**Key Levels:** 44-45 call zone, 370 put zone
**Historical Comparison:** null

For IBIT, 44 and 45 remain a very big call zone. The chart shows 370 as a key put zone. The speaker questions if a Bitcoin squeeze will occur, as it's been a while since that happened.

### 20. MOVE (ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index) (daily)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS (POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED RISK)
**Pattern:** potential spike in volatility
**Key Levels:** 97.7454 resistance, 67.6962 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The MOVE index, a measure of bond market volatility, is being watched. If it spikes back up, it could signal increased risk in the markets. The chart shows the index currently around 67.6962, with a resistance at 97.7454. A previous spike helped define a possible low in a recent market crash.

### 21. VIX (Volatility S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS (POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** repeated rejection of 20 level
**Key Levels:** 20 resistance, 12.68 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The VIX keeps going above 20 and then getting 'knocked back down'. If it breaks above 20, it could signal that markets are starting to enter a more corrective phase. The chart shows the VIX currently at 19.30, with a resistance at 21.46.

### 22. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)) (4-hour)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS (POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED RISK)
**Pattern:** change of first timeframe trend
**Key Levels:** 96.769 resistance, 95.205 support, 84.873 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

USOIL is signaling a 'change of first timeframe trend', meaning the market might be pricing in a 'little bit of risk'. The chart shows the price around 96.769, with support at 95.205 and 84.873. The speaker notes that the stock market doesn't seem to care about this yet.

### 23. UKOIL (CFDs on Brent Crude Oil) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward spike
**Key Levels:** 103.51 resistance, 99.98 support, 78.90 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Brent crude oil was spiking up, similar to WTI. The chart shows the price around 99.98, with resistance at 103.51 and support at 78.90.

### 24. XLE (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher high after previous trade
**Key Levels:** 56.98 resistance, 56.89 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Energy stocks (XLE) took a 'little higher high' after the 'number one trade' a few days ago. The chart shows the price around 56.98, with a previous low at 54.00. This suggests continued demand in the energy sector.

### 25. US02Y (US Government Bonds 2 Year Yield) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout
**Key Levels:** 3.890% resistance, 3.840% current yield, 3.700% support, 3.600% support
**Historical Comparison:** null

US 2-year yields have broken up, currently at 3.840%. This is 'against what you're hearing in the press and the price'.

### 26. US10Y (US Government Bonds 10 Year Yield) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout
**Key Levels:** 4.500% resistance, 4.333% current yield, 4.200% support, 4.100% support
**Historical Comparison:** null

US 10-year yields are also up, currently at 4.333%, again 'against what you're hearing in the press and the price'.

### 27. KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) (daily)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** doji after strong rally
**Key Levels:** 6449.97 resistance, 6231.01 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The KOSPI had its first 'little doji' after a 'pretty wild' 4% rally in the last session. It ended down in the current session. This is being watched as an indicator for 'hardware' (semiconductors) and data centers.

### 28. SNDK (SanDisk Corporation) (daily)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** wild moves, potential distribution
**Key Levels:** 932.43 resistance, 870 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

SNDK, a 'poster child' for 'pretty wild moves' in semiconductors and hardware, is showing a potential 'Wyckoff distribution' pattern. The price is around 932.43, with support at 870. The speaker notes that it's been a while since weakness was seen in these areas.

### 29. DRAM (Roundhill Memory ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** one bad session after strong rally
**Key Levels:** 36.95 resistance, 35.36 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

DRAM, a new ETF, had one bad session after a strong rally. The price is around 36.95, with support at 35.36. This is another indicator for hardware.

### 30. MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** potential Wyckoff distribution
**Key Levels:** 481.72 resistance, 441.42 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

MU had a big transaction in the last 24 hours. The speaker questions if this could be a 'Wyckoff distribution' pattern, despite a current series of higher highs and higher lows. The price is around 481.72, with support at 441.42. Technical signs are starting to appear, with the price extended through trend lines.

### 31. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** extended through trendline, doji
**Key Levels:** 494.50 resistance (trendline), 317.99 support, 261.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

SMH is shown to be 'just slightly extended through the trend line', similar to the last 24 hours. It then goes to a doji, which is an important signal. The price is around 481.85, with a trendline resistance at 494.50. This historical context makes the current situation 'so interesting'.

### 32. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** sitting in a tight range
**Key Levels:** 213.85 resistance, 199.64 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

NVIDIA is still 'struggling' and 'sitting' at the 200 call zone. The weekly chart shows the price around 199.64, with resistance at 213.85. It's not the time for NVIDIA compared to other semiconductors.

### 33. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** sitting in a very tight range
**Key Levels:** 205.45 resistance, 197.57 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

NVIDIA has been sitting in a 'very tight range' for the last 6-7 sessions, looking 'a little bit weaker'. The price is around 199.64, with resistance at 205.45 and support at 197.57.

### 34. TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** doji after testing daily 20 moving average
**Key Levels:** 376.66 resistance, 373.72 area to watch, 331.83 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Tesla came down to the daily 20 moving average, which it found as resistance on the way down. It then found it as support after breaking it for the first time, creating a doji. The 'area to watch' is 373.72, with resistance at 376.66. The speaker questions if it will change to a higher high or break 390, exposing a positive gamma situation.

### 35. TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) (2-hour)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** no structure yet, looking for higher high
**Key Levels:** 376.66 resistance, 373.62 area to watch, 380.93 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

On the 2-hour timeframe, Tesla doesn't have clear structure yet. Traders and investors are looking for a change to a higher high, or a break of 390, which could expose a positive gamma situation. The 'area to watch' is 373.62, with resistance at 376.66.

### 36. GOLD (Gold XAUUSD) (2-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH (SHORT-TERM)
**Pattern:** falling off, breaking trendlines
**Key Levels:** 4726.77 support, 4683.61 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Gold is 'still falling off' as expected. The chart shows weakness, dropping to a lower low and breaking trendlines. The price is around 4683.61, with support at 4726.77. It's looking 'kind of weak' in the short term.

### 37. SILVER (CFDs on Silver USD/OZ) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH (SHORT-TERM)
**Pattern:** breaking through trendlines
**Key Levels:** 78.1364 resistance, 75.1050 support, 69.3154 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Silver is also breaking through trendlines, similar to gold. The price is around 75.1050, with resistance at 78.1364 and support at 69.3154. This again highlights the importance of good technical analysis.

### 38. HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (WAITING FOR SUPPORT TO HOLD)
**Pattern:** on support
**Key Levels:** 26204 resistance, 25646 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

China's Hang Seng Index is on support, with the price around 25717. The speaker questions if this level will hold, with resistance at 26204 and support at 25646.

### 39. ETHUSDT (Ethereum / TetherUS) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding higher high/higher low trend
**Key Levels:** 2395.77 retail steal, 2324.72 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Ethereum hasn't done much in the last couple of sessions but is still holding a 'slightly higher high, higher low trend'. The price is around 2324.72, with a 'retail steal' level at 2395.77.

### 40. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH (IF RESISTANCE BREAKS)
**Pattern:** bullish hammer into resistance
**Key Levels:** 78911.71 minor resistance, 78257.47 resistance, 90123.05 potential target
**Historical Comparison:** Reminds of S&P pattern

Bitcoin is showing a 'little bullish hammer' into the resistance zone of 78911.71. There's not much stopping it on the left-hand side if it breaks through. The speaker questions if it will be bullish or bearish, noting it's an 'important area'. It needs to close above 79000 for a bullish continuation.

### 41. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** high highs, high lows
**Key Levels:** 26953.8 resistance, 26320.5 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Nasdaq 100 has been a 'strong market', consistently making higher highs and higher lows. The price is around 26953.8, with support at 26320.5.

### 42. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** high highs, high lows
**Key Levels:** 26954.1 resistance, 26603.5 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

On the 4-hour timeframe, the Nasdaq 100 continues its strong upward trend, with the price around 26954.1, and support at 26603.5.

### 43. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (2-hour)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS BULLISH
**Pattern:** multiple bounces off 2-hour 50 moving average, slowing gains
**Key Levels:** 26408.1 support, 26953.8 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** Exact same as S&P

The Nasdaq 100 has seen multiple bounces off the 2-hour 50 moving average, similar to the S&P 500. The speaker notes that the market is starting to 'slow in its gains' each time it comes back to this level. If it breaks down from a lower high, a lot of people will be watching the 26400 level, which would likely mean the S&P has already weakened.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The video discusses the potential for a shift in the market regime due to unprecedented semiconductor rallies and rising commodity prices. It highlights the divergence between the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metrics and actual commodity inflation, suggesting the Fed might be behind the curve. The analysis also touches on the 'modern Dow theory' where semiconductor performance is a key indicator for the broader market. Euphoria in the options market and analyst upgrades in tech are noted as potential signs of exhaustion, reminiscent of past 'good earnings until it was bad' situations.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch for increased volatility in the market, especially if the MOVE index spikes up.
- Monitor oil prices (UKOIL, USOIL) as their breakout could signal broader inflationary pressures.
- Pay close attention to upcoming tech earnings, particularly for signs of 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' behavior.
- Be cautious of potential market exhaustion in semiconductors (SMH, SOXL, MU) after their unprecedented rally.
- Observe the S&P 500 (SPX, US500) for a break below 7050, which could expose the 6800-6850 zone.
- Watch for a break above 20 on the VIX as a signal for a more corrective market phase.
- Monitor Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) for a close above 79000, which could indicate a bullish continuation.
- Keep an eye on US yields (US02Y, US10Y) as their upward movement contradicts current narratives.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SMH, UKOIL, INTC, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, AVGO, NVDA, MU, AMD, TXN, CSCO, QCOM, NFLX, GOOGL, META, JPM, BRK-B, LLY, ABBV, JNJ, XOM, CVX, WMT, COST, HD, PFE, MRK, UNH, PG, KO, SOXL, SOX, IWM, XOV, DX1!, US500, SPX, QQQ, IBIT, MOVE, VIX, USOIL, XLE, US02Y, US10Y, KOSPI, SNDK, DRAM, GOLD, SILVER, HSI1!, ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT, NAS100

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-04-24 23:02:52*