# Historical Market Runs Tend To End Like This…
**Date:** 2026-04-26  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBVRQnc0Kow)

## Main Thesis
The market is experiencing historic rallies, particularly in semiconductors, reminiscent of the dot-com bubble. While current momentum is strong, there are signs of potential fragility and a need for caution, especially with upcoming earnings and the acceleration of dark pool activity.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) (3M (3-month))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** breakout to 48% above 200-day moving average
**Key Levels:** 10,513.66 current price
**Historical Comparison:** similar to the period before the dot-com bubble

The SOX index is currently 48.28% above its 200-day moving average, a breakout level only seen once before in history, prior to the dot-com bubble. This indicates an extremely rapid and potentially unsustainable rally.

### 2. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (1W (1-week))

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout
**Key Levels:** 200.55 Call Wall, 208.27 current price

NVIDIA has experienced significant breakouts, closing at an all-time weekly high of 208.27. The chart shows strong upward momentum, with previous resistance levels being broken.

### 3. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (2h (2-hour))

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding key support levels
**Key Levels:** 7,053.9 support, 7,167.4 current price

The S&P 500 index is holding key support levels around 7,053.9. The presenter questions if losing this level could lead to weakness, but currently, it shows resilience with higher highs and higher lows on smaller timeframes.

### 4. CAR (Avis Budget Group Inc.) (1D (1-day))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** massive short squeeze followed by a crash
**Key Levels:** 800+ peak, 204.00 current price
**Historical Comparison:** similar to a previous event in 2021

Avis Budget Group experienced a historic rally from under $200 to over $800, followed by a crash back to $200 in just two days. This is attributed to a massive short squeeze and highlights the importance of risk management in volatile markets.

### 5. Semiconductor Index (SOX) (N/A (historical data since 1994))

**Bias:** BEARISH (HISTORICALLY, THIS SIGNAL LEADS TO NEGATIVE RETURNS IN THE SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM)
**Pattern:** breakout
**Key Levels:** 48.28% above 200DMA
**Historical Comparison:** triggered when price surges 48% above 200DMA after >=3 months below (only 4 times since 1994)

The Semiconductor Index (SOX) has broken out to 48% above its 200-day moving average, a rare event that has only occurred four times since 1994. Historically, this signal has led to negative average and median returns over the subsequent 5 days, 2 weeks, 1 month, and 3 months, with a generally poor win rate, suggesting potential weakness ahead.

### 6. S&P 500 (N/A (historical data since 1950))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BEARISH (SHORT-TERM FRAGILITY)
**Pattern:** 4 consecutive positive weeks with 12%+ total gains
**Key Levels:** 12%+ total gains
**Historical Comparison:** occurred 11 times since 1950

The S&P 500 has had 4 consecutive positive weeks with over 12% total gains, a rare occurrence (11 times since 1950). While markets are generally up after such events, there can be short-term fragility, with some instances showing negative returns in the immediate aftermath.

### 7. Technology - Forward P/E Ratio (N/A (Jan 2025 - Apr 2026))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** mean reversion
**Key Levels:** 10y avg. 22.8x, 5y avg. 25.7x, Current 23.3x

The Technology sector's forward P/E ratio has moved from below its 10-year average (22.8x) back towards its 5-year average (25.7x), currently at 23.3x. This suggests a mean reversion, indicating that the rally is bringing valuations back to historical norms rather than pushing them into extreme overvaluation yet.

### 8. Cap vs Equal-Weight: How different is the story? (Year-to-Date)

**Bias:** BULLISH ON HARDWARE/SEMICONDUCTORS, CAUTIOUS ON BROADER TECH
**Pattern:** outperformance of semiconductors and hardware

Semiconductors and Hardware are significantly outperforming in both cap-weighted and average stock returns year-to-date. This highlights the concentrated nature of the current market rally, driven heavily by these sectors. The presenter suggests hardware will be the most important sector to watch for potential turnarounds.

### 9. Semiconductor Index (SOX) (N/A (historical data since 1996))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** extended consecutive days up
**Key Levels:** 17 consecutive days up
**Historical Comparison:** rare event, only a few similar instances in history

The Semiconductor Index (SOX) has been up for 17 consecutive days, a historically rare event. Past instances of such extended rallies have either led to continued momentum for a short period before slowing or a significant correction. The speed of the current rally is reminiscent of previous periods of high volatility.

### 10. What Happened to Semiconductors After a Momentum Thrust? (Since 2011 (SMH))

**Bias:** BULLISH (HISTORICALLY, MOMENTUM THRUSTS LEAD TO POSITIVE RETURNS)
**Pattern:** momentum thrust
**Key Levels:** Average Return After 63 Days: +12.11%, Win Rate: 89%

After a 'Day of Momentum Thrust' (defined as a 2-day rally of 8% in SMH), semiconductors have historically shown an average return of +12.11% after 63 days, with an 89% win rate since 2011. This suggests that strong momentum tends to continue, although the current rally is 'off the scale' in terms of speed.

### 11. S&P 500 Performance After Netscape v/s ChatGPT Launch (Days since launch)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** analog comparison of market performance
**Historical Comparison:** Netscape Launch (1994/12/15) vs. ChatGPT Launch (2022/11/30)

This chart compares the S&P 500 performance after the launch of Netscape (1994) and ChatGPT (2022). The current market rally (red line) is tracking similarly to the Netscape era (blue line), which eventually led to the dot-com bubble. The presenter asks if Open AI/ChatGPT will be the ultimate winner or if another company will emerge, similar to how Netscape was not the long-term winner of the internet boom.

### 12. SMH - VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (1D (1-day))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** massive transactions at highs
**Key Levels:** $480M @ $504, $380M @ $486, $330M @ $420, $310M @ $380

The SMH ETF is showing massive transactions, with the 5th largest transaction ever recorded. These large transactions are clustering at current highs, indicating significant institutional activity. This is a rare occurrence and suggests a need for close attention.

### 13. Technology Price Returns vs Forward EPS Growth (Year-over-Year Change)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** price action outstripping earnings growth
**Key Levels:** +58% Price Return YoY, +58% 12m Forward EPS YoY

Technology price returns are currently at +58% year-over-year, while 12-month forward EPS growth is also at +58%. Historically, price action tends to outstrip earnings growth during periods of euphoria, leading to eventual pullbacks. The current situation suggests that Wall Street is pricing in future growth very aggressively, potentially faster than actual earnings.

### 14. IGV - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (1D (1-day))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** sell-off from highs, resistance at $88
**Key Levels:** $88 resistance, $86 support, $82 support

The IGV ETF has seen a sell-off from its highs, currently facing resistance around $88. Despite the pullback, significant transactions are still occurring, suggesting ongoing institutional interest but also potential for further downside if resistance holds.

### 15. Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern (1950-2000 (average % change from Jan 1))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH (SEASONAL PATTERN SUGGESTS DIPS)
**Pattern:** seasonal dips and rallies

Midterm election years typically show a seasonal pattern of an initial dip, a rally, another dip (sometimes deeper), and then a rally towards the end of the year. This statistical pattern suggests potential headwinds for the market in the coming months.

### 16. S&P 500 Index Returns Past 10 Years (May - October) (Yearly (May-October))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH (HISTORICALLY, MAY IS NOT ALWAYS A SELL-OFF)
**Pattern:** historical performance in May-October
**Key Levels:** Average 6.9% higher, 90% higher

Contrary to the 'Sell in May' adage, the S&P 500 has been higher 90% of the time during the May-October period over the last 10 years, with an average return of 6.9%. The last time there was a 'Sell in May' was in 2022, which was a midterm election year.

### 17. DX1! (U.S. Dollar Index Futures) (1D (1-day))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** bucking the trend, mini support
**Key Levels:** 98.960 resistance, 98.175 higher high, 97.550 support

The U.S. Dollar Index Futures have fallen off slightly but are attempting to rally into the 99 area, making higher highs and higher lows on smaller timeframes. It's currently sitting around mini support, bucking general expectations.

### 18. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (2h (2-hour))

**Bias:** BULLISH (HOLDING DYNAMIC SUPPORT)
**Pattern:** multiple taps on 50 EMA, not closing below 7050
**Key Levels:** 7,231.4 Options High Level Today, 7,200.0, 7,167.4 Current, 7,096.6 Options Low Level Today, 7,054.0 Minor Support, 6,830.67 Most Traded Level

The S&P 500 futures have repeatedly tested and held the 50 exponential moving average on the 2-hour chart, never closing below 7,050. This indicates strong dynamic support and a persistent upward thrust. Options data shows resistance at 7,200 and 7,231.4, with support at 7,096.6.

### 19. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (Timestamp: 2026-04-24 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** BULLISH (MARKET TRYING TO PUSH INTO EXTREME POSITIVE GAMMA)
**Pattern:** positive gamma position
**Key Levels:** Call Resistance: 7200, Put Support: 6800, Spot Price: 7164

Options data for SPX shows significant call resistance at 7,200 and put support at 6,800. The market is currently in a positive gamma position, trying to push into 'extreme positive gamma', which typically leads to less volatility and upward momentum.

### 20. Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ (Timestamp: 2026-04-24 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive gamma position
**Key Levels:** Call Resistance: 670, Put Support: 660, Spot Price: 665

Options data for QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) also shows a very positive gamma position across various expirations, with significant call volumes at higher strike prices (e.g., 670) and put support at lower levels (e.g., 660). This indicates a strong bullish sentiment and potential for continued upward movement.

### 21. Net GEX All Expirations for TSLA (Timestamp: 2026-04-24 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive gamma position
**Key Levels:** Call Resistance: 210, Put Support: 190, Spot Price: 208

Tesla's options data shows a strong positive gamma position, with call resistance at 210 and put support at 190. The stock closed above 200, indicating a significant weekly close and further bullishness, with 210 being the next major call level.

### 22. SMH/SPY (1W (1-week))

**Bias:** BULLISH (EXTREME OUTPERFORMANCE)
**Pattern:** ballistic outperformance of semiconductors
**Key Levels:** 0.4455 support, 0.7094 current ratio

The ratio of SMH (Semiconductors) to SPY (S&P 500) is 'ballistic', showing extreme outperformance of semiconductors. The weekly 20-period moving average has not been broken during this entire rally since 2025, indicating a very strong and accelerating trend. The presenter questions if this acceleration is too fast.

### 23. SOXS (Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF) (1D (1-day))

**Bias:** BEARISH (FOR SOXS, IMPLYING BULLISH FOR SEMICONDUCTORS)
**Pattern:** massive selling volume
**Key Levels:** 13.52 current price
**Historical Comparison:** similar to previous bottom for semiconductors

The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF (SOXS) is experiencing massive selling volumes, reminiscent of when semiconductors bottomed out previously. This indicates that a lot of money is betting against a semiconductor downturn, suggesting continued bullishness for the semiconductor sector.

### 24. NVDA/MAGS (1D (1-day))

**Bias:** BULLISH (NVIDIA OUTPERFORMING MAGNIFICENT SEVEN)
**Pattern:** breakout against Magnificent Seven
**Key Levels:** 3.10 resistance, 3.13 current ratio

NVIDIA has broken out against the Magnificent Seven (MAGS) index for the first time in several years, surpassing a key resistance level at 3.10. This suggests that NVIDIA is leading the broader tech rally and is currently very strong.

### 25. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil WTI) (2h (2-hour))

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** picking up momentum
**Key Levels:** 95.205 resistance, 94.958, 84.873 support

Crude oil (WTI) is starting to pick up upward momentum, with prices moving towards the 95.205 resistance level. The presenter notes that actions speak louder than words, implying that despite media reports, oil is showing signs of strength.

### 26. XLE (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) (1D (1-day))

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** change of trend towards upside
**Key Levels:** 56.87 support, 58.00 resistance

The XLE ETF (Energy sector) has shown a change of trend towards the upside on smaller timeframes. A significant transaction was recorded around the 55 area, indicating strong buying interest. If this trend continues, the market could see a sell-off in other areas.

### 27. DRAM (Roundhill Memory ETF) (1D (1-day))

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward momentum
**Key Levels:** 37.20 current price

The DRAM ETF is showing continued upward momentum, with the presenter noting that they are preparing a newsletter on their thoughts about this instrument.

### 28. TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) (1D (1-day))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH (WATCHING FOR REVERSAL)
**Pattern:** two daily dojis, potential island reversal
**Key Levels:** 376.66 area to watch, 331.83 support

Tesla has formed two daily dojis around the 376.66 level, which is the daily 20-period moving average. If it gaps up from here, it could form an island reversal pattern, suggesting a potential bullish reversal. The presenter is watching this area closely.

### 29. GOLD (XAUUSD) (2h (2-hour))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** weakness after trend change
**Key Levels:** 4,726.77 resistance, 4,710.25 support

Gold continues to look weak after changing trend on smaller timeframes. While the long-term macro view remains unchanged, the short-term charts show lower lows and lower highs, indicating a bearish bias for now.

### 30. SILVER (XAGUSD) (4h (4-hour))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 78.1364 resistance, 75.6550 current price

Silver, similar to gold, is showing lower lows and lower highs on smaller timeframes, indicating continued weakness after losing key trendlines.

### 31. HSI (Hang Seng Index Futures) (1D (1-day))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding support with a bounce
**Key Levels:** 26,204 resistance, 26,041 current price, 25,646 support

Chinese stocks (Hang Seng Index) held support around 25,646 and saw a bounce during the Thursday/Friday sessions. Technicals are holding, suggesting a neutral to slightly bullish outlook for now.

### 32. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (2h (2-hour))

**Bias:** BULLISH (HOLDING STEEP TREND)
**Pattern:** steep upward trend, holding 50 EMA
**Key Levels:** 27,314.6 current price, 25,890.4 support

The Nasdaq 100 is in a 'wild' market, showing a very steep upward trend and repeatedly holding the 50 exponential moving average on the 2-hour chart. This is an extreme rally, and losing the current trendline would be the first sign of potential weakness.

### 33. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (1W (1-week))

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** mean reversion to 20-weekly EMA, potential for further upside
**Key Levels:** 94,590.37 resistance, 86,519.49, 79,093.58, 77,494.95 current price
**Historical Comparison:** Scotty Pippen level (50-weekly EMA)

Bitcoin has come off its most traded area and is currently battling the 79,000 level. It's at mean reversion (20-weekly EMA). If it breaks through, it could target higher key levels like 86,519.49 and 94,590.37. The presenter recalls the 'Scotty Pippen level' (50-weekly EMA), which previously held but was eventually broken, suggesting that current resistance levels are important to watch.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a 'late cycle' phase, characterized by euphoria and rapid price action, particularly in semiconductors and hardware. This is compared to the dot-com boom, where technology stocks experienced massive rallies. The presenter emphasizes the importance of watching debt levels and upcoming earnings as potential catalysts for market shifts. Dark pool activity is accelerating, indicating significant institutional transactions.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch semiconductor and hardware flows for market direction.
- Be aware of potential short-term fragility in the S&P 500 after its recent strong rally.
- Pay close attention to upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies, as they will demand strong results to sustain current valuations.
- Monitor the U.S. Dollar Index for continued bucking of trends.
- Watch for potential island reversal patterns in Tesla around the daily 20-period moving average.
- Be cautious with leveraged ETFs like SOXS due to their high volatility and potential for significant losses.
- Monitor oil and energy sector (XLE) for signs of continued upward momentum, which could impact broader markets.
- Watch Bitcoin's battle with the 79,000 level and its 20-weekly EMA for potential moves towards 86,519.49 and 94,590.37.
- Be prepared for increased volatility towards the end of the year.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SOX, NVDA, US500, CAR, SMH, SPX, IGV, DX1!, QQQ, TSLA, XLE, DRAM, XAUUSD, XAGUSD, HSI, NAS100, BTCUSDT, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, JPM, V, BRK-B, LLY, JNJ, XOM, CVX, WMT, PEP, KO, MCD, HD, COST, UBER, NOW, LRCX, AMAT, IBM, INTC, META, NFLX, TMUS, VZ, RTX, LMT, UNH, NEE, DUK, SOFI, CMG, ROKU, C, CAT, LULU, RIVN, AMD, MU, SOHU, SOHS, USOL, USLB, GLD, SLV, HSY, NAIL, TQQQ, SQQQ, SOXS

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-04-26 23:03:29*