# What Is Wall Street Up Too?
**Date:** 2026-04-28  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NtELy5taTWk)

## Main Thesis
Wall Street's volume is falling off a cliff, raising questions about who is buying after a V-shaped recovery. The market is showing signs of volatility and potential inflation, with some sectors like semiconductors experiencing extreme bullishness while others are weakening. Earnings season is expected to bring significant movement, and historical patterns suggest a potential double-dip decline.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPY (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** V-shaped recovery
**Key Levels:** 715.17 high, 525.00 low
**Historical Comparison:** Similar to a year ago, which led to a 20% decline.

The SPY chart shows a significant V-shaped recovery with extremely low volume, the lowest in over 12 months. This raises questions about who is buying and if a double-dip decline, similar to previous midterm election years, is possible. The last time volume was this low (February 18th, 2025) it preceded a tariff tantrum and a significant market sell-off.

### 2. SOX (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** bullish trend, potential bubble
**Key Levels:** 10,408.04 high, 97.13 low
**Historical Comparison:** Compared to 2000 and 2020 rallies in semiconductors.

The SOX chart shows a strong bullish trend in semiconductors, with the current rally being compared to previous significant rallies in 2000 and 2020. The question is whether this extreme upward movement is sustainable or indicative of a bubble.

### 3. DBC (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** divergence
**Key Levels:** 122.82 high, 99.57 low
**Historical Comparison:** Commodities tend to be smarter than the Fed's inflation tools.

The DBC chart, representing the Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund, shows commodities spiking up while the Fed's preferred inflation tool (blue line) is going down. Historically, when commodities pick up, inflation is usually around the corner, and the Fed is often late to react. This suggests potential inflationary pressures in 2026, possibly leading to stagflation or further inflationary pressures due to continued stimulus and deregulation.

### 4. IWM (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** dark pools, price action
**Key Levels:** 276.76 high
**Historical Comparison:** null

The IWM chart (Russell 2000 ETF) shows two large dark pool transactions over the last 24 hours. Dark pools are large transactions between two massive entities that are reported at the end of the day. Tracking these clusters and the surrounding price action can provide insights into market movements. The presence of these large transactions after a significant run suggests potential profit-taking by hedge funds.

### 5. AMD (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** dark pools, rally
**Key Levels:** 334.99 high, 211.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The AMD chart shows an historic run, with the 11th largest trade at the base and the 8th and 12th largest trades occurring after the rally. This suggests potential profit-taking by hedge funds, similar to the IWM chart. The question is whether this indicates a topping out or continued upward momentum.

### 6. GLDM (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** dark pools, sideways action
**Key Levels:** 92.63 high, 89.60 support, 86.00 support, 60.00 low
**Historical Comparison:** null

The GLDM chart (SPDR Gold MiniShares) shows the biggest dark pool transaction ever last year, which led to several months of sideways action before an ultimate rally. Currently, there are two large dark pool transactions (number 3 and number 2) coming in, suggesting a potential pause or consolidation in gold prices. The speaker notes that gold is 'flawed' at the moment and has been 'flaky' on smaller timeframes.

### 7. US Info Tech (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** sell-offs
**Key Levels:** -2.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** Previous sell-offs from biggest hedge funds.

The Prime Book chart for US Info Tech, sourced from Goldman Sachs, shows recent sell-offs. Previous instances of large sell-offs from hedge funds have been observed in 2023, 2024, and 2025. This suggests that hedge funds are taking profits, which could explain the dark pools observed in semiconductor stocks.

### 8. S&P 500 (19-day rolling returns)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** aggressive run
**Key Levels:** 13% threshold
**Historical Comparison:** Since 1950 (n=7)

The S&P 500 chart shows 19-day rolling returns exceeding 13% while closing within 10% of all-time highs. Historically, since 1950, such aggressive runs often lead to a 'coin-flippy' market, where future performance is uncertain. This is one of the first bearish stats observed after an epic rally, suggesting a potential slowdown in market momentum.

### 9. S&P 500 (daily)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** relative performance by sector
**Key Levels:** 7165 high, 7800 low
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart compares the relative performance of various sectors against the S&P 500, both cap-weighted and equal-weighted. Technology and Communication Services are leading the rally, while defensive sectors like Utilities and Health Care are dropping off. Small-Caps are also performing well, which is typically a late-cycle indicator. The speaker notes that volatility is entering the market, especially in semiconductors, suggesting bigger things are afoot.

### 10. Semiconductors (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** price vs. forward P/E ratio
**Key Levels:** October 2025 valuation peak
**Historical Comparison:** October 2025 valuation peak

The Semiconductors chart shows price versus the forward P/E ratio. Despite the recent price rally, the forward P/E ratio is still 30% below the October 2025 valuation peak. This suggests that analysts are upgrading earnings expectations faster than the price is moving, indicating extreme bullishness from 'boffins' (analysts). The speaker questions if this is an 'AI hallucination' or a genuine undervaluation.

### 11. Earnings Whispers (weekly (April 27, 2026))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** earnings releases
**Key Levels:** various implied movements
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart highlights the most anticipated earnings releases for the week of April 27, 2026. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are packed with major companies like Spotify, SoFi, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Apple, and Chevron. The options market is implying significant price movements, with Spotify at +/-10% and Microsoft at +/-7%. The speaker emphasizes that this is an 'AI or bust' market driven by spending, and hopes for profit at the end of the earnings season.

### 12. Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern (monthly (1968-2024))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** seasonal pattern
**Key Levels:** various percentage changes
**Historical Comparison:** Average change since 1968

This chart shows the average seasonal pattern for midterm election years across DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. It suggests a Q1 sell-off, a rally into May, and then a potential drop into the end of the year. This aligns with the speaker's previous prediction of a double-dip. Various risks like agricultural stocks, food prices, property markets, and debt markets could contribute to this decline.

### 13. DXY (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL-BULLISH
**Pattern:** small change of trend
**Key Levels:** 98.175 higher high, 97.550 support, 98.960 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The DXY chart shows a small change of trend, with the dollar holding up. It went close to 99, pulled back, and is now hovering around a 'neutral bullish' area. If it breaks past 99, it could be a game-changer for the dollar, making it more bullish. For now, it's short-term bullish but long-term neutral, trapped in a large trade band.

### 14. SPX (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 7173.92 high, 6830.67 most traded level
**Historical Comparison:** null

The SPX chart is still going up, making a series of higher highs and higher lows. The daily volume is very small, leading people to question if this rally can be sustained. The speaker notes that volume often drops off on the way up, but this small volume after such a strong rally raises concerns about consolidation and volatility.

### 15. US500 (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** grinding higher
**Key Levels:** 7239.0 high (options high level), 7108.4 low (options low level), 7010.4 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US500 chart shows the market continuing to grind higher, with the 2-hour 50 exponential moving average holding up. New options high and low levels are being established. Despite dropping volume and large activity, there's no confirmation of a trend change, as the market 'just doesn't care'.

### 16. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Q-CTA position
**Key Levels:** 6500-7000 range
**Historical Comparison:** null

The SPX and Q-CTA Position chart shows the Q-CTA level rebounding significantly off the base, going from extremely overbought to consolidation, then to extremely oversold, and now back to the middle. While some reports show extreme overbought conditions, the speaker believes the market is not at extremely overbought levels based on CTA positioning.

### 17. GOLD (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Q-CTA position
**Key Levels:** 2500-4500 range
**Historical Comparison:** null

The GOLD and Q-CTA Position chart shows gold's Q-CTA position is 'flawed', similar to where it was when it hit the daily 200. Historically, this led to price stabilization and then bullishness. However, a recent day (highlighted) changed the outlook, making it seem like gold wouldn't do anything for 3-6 months. The speaker notes that gold is currently trapped in a range, making it a watch chart despite the low CTA positioning.

### 18. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** GEX profile
**Key Levels:** 7200 call resistance, 6800 put support, 7174 spot price
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Net GEX All Expirations for SPX chart shows 7200 as the most struck call resistance zone and 6800 as the most struck put support zone. If the market breaks through 7200, it could quickly move to the next 100 points, entering a 'positive gamma' hedging session.

### 19. QQQ (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** GEX profile
**Key Levels:** 670 call walls
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Net GEX Multi Expirations for QQQ chart shows strong call walls around 670. If this level is broken, it could lead to a significant upward move, similar to the SPX. The speaker notes that the QQQ has been 'pretty strong'.

### 20. NVDA (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** GEX profile
**Key Levels:** 215 positive gamma
**Historical Comparison:** NVDA outperforming Magnificent 7

The Net GEX Multi Expirations for NVDA chart shows continued piling in of call options, pushing the stock into positive gamma above 215. The speaker notes that NVDA is now outperforming the Magnificent 7 once again, a rare occurrence. This suggests continued bullish momentum for NVDA.

### 21. TSLA (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** GEX profile
**Key Levels:** 380 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Net GEX Multi Expirations for TSLA chart shows Tesla still sitting around the 380 level, which is a key resistance point. The speaker will look at the chart soon to see if it breaks through.

### 22. IBIT (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** GEX profile
**Key Levels:** 44-45 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Net GEX Multi Expirations for IBIT chart (Bitcoin ETF) shows it struggling to break through the 44-45 resistance area on the options. This indicates a key resistance level for Bitcoin.

### 23. URA (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding pattern
**Key Levels:** 57.12 resistance, 55.26 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The URA chart (Global X Uranium ETF) shows uranium in a holding pattern, trying to put pressure on the resistance side. This suggests a potential breakout or continued consolidation in the uranium market.

### 24. LIT (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout after consolidation
**Key Levels:** 77.12 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The LIT chart (Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF) shows lithium breaking out after a period of consolidation. This indicates a bullish trend and new opportunities in the market.

### 25. COPX (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** picked up and dropped off
**Key Levels:** 95.31 high, 72.46 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The COPX chart (Global X Copper Miners ETF) shows copper picking up in recent times and then dropping off again. This suggests a volatile and uncertain market for copper.

### 26. XME (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breaking downward trendline
**Key Levels:** 132.81 high, 104.38 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The XME chart (State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF) shows the general metals market breaking a downward trendline a few weeks ago and starting to push up. This indicates a bullish trend in the metals sector.

### 27. XLE (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** slight change of trend
**Key Levels:** 56.86 resistance, 56.79 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The XLE chart (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) shows some movement in energy, with a slight change of trend. The biggest trade ever recorded on Volume Leaders came through around here, indicating significant activity in the energy market.

### 28. USOIL (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher high
**Key Levels:** 97.479 resistance, 95.205 support, 84.873 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The USOIL chart (Crude Oil Futures) shows both US oil and UK oil taking a new higher high. This signals some form of stabilization in oil prices.

### 29. UKOIL (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher high
**Key Levels:** 103.84 resistance, 101.44 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The UKOIL chart (Brent Crude Oil) shows both US oil and UK oil taking a new higher high. This signals some form of stabilization in oil prices.

### 30. CLZ2026 (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** creeping up, potential accumulation
**Key Levels:** 80.00 resistance, 72.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The CLZ2026 chart (Crude Oil Futures Dec 2026) shows crude oil futures starting to creep up. This looks like a potential accumulation phase, and if it breaks out, it would signal spiking future prices, meaning 'higher for longer' and more inflation possibilities, putting pressure on debt systems.

### 31. SOXS (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** massive volume against semis
**Key Levels:** 21.70 resistance, 109.93 resistance, 14.03 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The SOXS chart (Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF) shows a massive volume against semiconductors in the last couple of sessions. This suggests that many people are trying to short semis. The speaker warns about the dangers of shorting the strongest market segment and advises practicing risk management.

### 32. SMH/SPY (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** going ballistic
**Key Levels:** 0.7079 high, 0.4455 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The SMH/SPY chart (Semiconductors versus S&P 500) has 'absolutely gone ballistic', indicating that the market is 'loving itself'. This is seen in the upgrades, but it's important to keep in mind.

### 33. SMH (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** gapped up, pre-market higher
**Key Levels:** 506.26 high, 481.85 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The SMH chart (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) shows the last couple of sessions gapped up by 5, and the pre-market was even higher. This indicates significant activity in semiconductors, with a lot of bullish sentiment.

### 34. DRAM (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** rally
**Key Levels:** 38.57 high, 35.36 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The DRAM chart (Roundhill Memory ETF) shows the market continuing to rally, representing hardware and the backend of the current rally. This indicates continued strength in the underlying components of the tech sector.

### 35. KOSPI (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** pushing higher
**Key Levels:** 6682.55 high, 6382.94 support
**Historical Comparison:** Reminiscent of previous history.

The KOSPI chart (KOSPI Composite Index) continues to push higher. While it's normal for this to happen, the speaker is surprised by its continued strength and will be watching it closely, as it reminds him of previous historical patterns.

### 36. TSLA (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** sitting on daily 20 moving average
**Key Levels:** 378.67 resistance, 376.66 support, 331.83 low
**Historical Comparison:** null

The TSLA chart shows Tesla sitting on the daily 20 moving average for another day. This level matters to the market, as otherwise, it wouldn't be sitting there. The first timeframe trend change is towards the upside, regardless of fundamentals. The question is whether there will be a bid from the street.

### 37. GOLD (2h)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** descending triangle, lower highs and equal lows
**Key Levels:** 4726.77 resistance, 4666.92 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The GOLD chart shows big transactions but continues to make a series of lower highs and equal lows, forming a descending triangle. If it reverses and pushes higher, it could be 'squeezy'. However, at the moment, it looks weak on the charts, as discussed in the weekend video.

### 38. SILVER (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** small timeframe action
**Key Levels:** 78.2033 resistance, 74.5289 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The SILVER chart shows small timeframe action, which is the type of action taught in the day trading masterclass. It highlights the importance of technical analysis techniques to continuously analyze markets over time. The market is still weakening, and the speaker will see if it snaps back based on big trades.

### 39. HKD (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** floating
**Key Levels:** 26276 resistance, 25646 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The HKD chart (Hang Seng Index Futures) shows Chinese markets not really doing anything, just floating up and down. There hasn't been a strong reaction, and the markets have been a bit muted in the world stage. It's still weakening, and the speaker will watch if it snaps back.

### 40. NAS100 (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** piling higher and higher
**Key Levels:** 27409.9 resistance, 26616.6 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The NAS100 chart (US 100 Cash CFD) is 'absolutely extremely bullish', piling higher and higher. The speaker is still watching the 2-hour 50 exponential moving average as this trend continues.

### 41. BTCUSDT (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** struggling with resistance
**Key Levels:** 79093.58 resistance, 76721.28 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The BTCUSDT chart (Bitcoin) is struggling with the 79,000 resistance level. It's a key level, and the market doesn't seem to want to break through it. The speaker has had an alert there for a while.

### 42. BTCUSDT (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** struggling with resistance
**Key Levels:** 79093.58 resistance, 76721.28 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The BTCUSDT chart (Bitcoin) on a daily timeframe shows it struggling with the 79,000 resistance level. It's a key level, and the market doesn't seem to want to break through it. The speaker has had an alert there for a while.

### 43. BTCUSDT (2h)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower high, lower low
**Key Levels:** 79093.58 resistance, 76721.28 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The BTCUSDT chart (Bitcoin) on a 2-hour timeframe shows a lower high and lower low, with the market coming back and testing the bottom. This looks a bit weaker, and for bulls, strong action is needed in the next couple of sessions. The daily 20 is also a very important level to hold the current Bitcoin rally.

### 44. ETHUSDT (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** struggling with resistance
**Key Levels:** 2395.77 resistance, 2286.36 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The ETHUSDT chart (Ethereum) is struggling with breaking through its resistance area, similar to Bitcoin. This indicates a period of consolidation or potential weakness for Ethereum.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The video discusses a potential shift in market dynamics, with some sectors like technology and semiconductors experiencing extreme bullishness, while defensive sectors are weakening. The speaker highlights the importance of monitoring inflation, especially with rising commodity prices and the upcoming Fed chair. Historical patterns in midterm election years suggest a potential for a double-dip decline. The market is currently driven by stimulus and deregulation, with significant capital expenditure in AI. The speaker also notes the increasing volatility at the top of the market, suggesting a more dangerous environment.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Wall Street's volume is falling off a cliff, raising questions about who is buying after a V-shaped recovery.
- A double-dip decline is possible this year, similar to previous midterm election years.
- Inflationary pressures might be coming due to rising commodity prices, and the Fed might be late to react.
- There's an interesting shift in who is making money and how, especially with AI spending.
- Semiconductor stocks are experiencing extreme bullishness, with earnings expectations outpacing price increases.
- The market is becoming 'coin-flippy' after aggressive runs, with increased volatility at the top.
- Earnings season this week is massive, with hundreds of billions, possibly trillions, of dollars in movement expected.
- Bitcoin is struggling with key resistance levels, and strong action is needed for bulls.
- Volume is dropping off significantly, which could be a sign of market weakness, especially if it continues during earnings season.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SPY, SOX, DBC, IWM, AMD, GLDM, US Info Tech, S&P 500, US500, SPX, QQQ, NVDA, TSLA, IBIT, URA, LIT, COPX, XME, XLE, USOIL, UKOIL, CLZ2026, SOXS, SMH, DRAM, KOSPI, GOLD, SILVER, HKD, NAS100, BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-04-29 23:03:02*