# This Is Absolutely Wild…
**Date:** 2026-05-01T03:26:33+00:00  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dM6fuV6HLk8)

## Main Thesis
The market is experiencing an unprecedented surge in tech and energy, driven by massive AI data center investments and government spending, leading to a two-pronged market where both tech and energy are performing well, despite rising national debt and central bank interventions.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. US500 Index (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** ascending channel
**Key Levels:** 7050.9 support

The US500 Index has ramped up significantly, driven by $700 billion being spent by big tech on AI data centers. The market is currently in an ascending channel, with 7050.9 acting as a key support level.

### 2. XLE (Energy Select SPDR ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** ascending trend
**Key Levels:** 59.65 resistance

Energy stocks (XLE) are showing a strong upward trend, with a recent pickup in utilities due to energy demand. The market is testing resistance at 59.65, indicating a two-tone market where both tech and energy are performing well.

### 3. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** ascending trend
**Key Levels:** 506.72 resistance

Semiconductor stocks (SMH) are also showing a strong upward trend, keeping pace with energy. The market is testing resistance at 506.72, indicating continued strength in the tech sector.

### 4. USDJPY (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** volatile, intervention-driven drops
**Key Levels:** 160.000 resistance, 155.972 support, 153.453 support

The USDJPY pair has seen significant volatility, with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervening after the currency hit 160.000, causing a sharp drop to 156.000. The BOJ is likely to continue intervening to defend the 160.000 ceiling, but the market has become complacent to these interventions.

### 5. SNDK (SanDisk Corporation) (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward trend
**Key Levels:** 871.34 support, 1096.51 current price

SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) has shown amazing results, with its stock price climbing significantly. Despite some weakness after hours, the market has priced in extremely hot numbers, with earnings per share (EPS) beating estimates by a large margin. This is due to massive spending by big tech companies on AI data centers.

### 6. National Debt Rising (US publicly held debt as a share of GDP) (yearly (1940-2025))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rising trend
**Key Levels:** 100% of GDP
**Historical Comparison:** above GDP for the first time since World War II

The US national debt is rising above GDP, a situation not seen since World War II. This raises concerns about sovereignty and future debt, especially with the current focus on AI spending.

### 7. S&P 500: May Seasonality Following April Gains Above 5% (monthly (May))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** mixed results, often weak first half of May
**Key Levels:** 5% gain in April
**Historical Comparison:** data since 1950

Historically, May has often been a weak month for the S&P 500, especially after strong April gains (above 5%). While there have been mixed results, the average price path suggests a weaker first half of May, followed by a potential rebound. The last 'sell in May' year was 2022, a midterm year.

### 8. SanDisk Corp (SNDK) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward trend, after-hours dip
**Key Levels:** 1096.51 current price, 1031.00 after-hours low

SanDisk (SNDK) has seen massive dark pool transactions and has been climbing significantly. Despite a 5.97% drop in after-hours trading, the market had priced in extremely hot numbers, with revenue at almost $6 billion (vs. $4.72 billion estimated) and EPS at $23.41 (vs. $14.51 estimated). This indicates strong underlying performance driven by AI spending.

### 9. Semiconductor Index SOX: Monthly % Change (monthly (since 1994))

**Bias:** BULLISH, WITH CAUTION
**Pattern:** hyperbolic rally
**Key Levels:** 37% monthly change in April
**Historical Comparison:** similar to dot-com boom peak (2000)

The Semiconductor Index (SOX) has experienced a monthly change of over 37% in April, a level only seen once before during the dot-com boom peak in 2000. This indicates an unsustainable long-term rally, but it's currently catching upgrades from Wall Street due to massive spending on AI data centers.

### 10. XLE (Energy Select SPDR ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** ascending trend, testing resistance
**Key Levels:** 56.89 support, 61.00 resistance

Energy stocks (XLE) have continued to climb higher after a massive transaction. The market is testing resistance around 61.00, suggesting continued upward momentum. This is part of the two-pronged market rally alongside tech.

### 11. AMD (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward trend, clusters of volume
**Key Levels:** 250.00 support, 334.99 current price

AMD has seen clusters of volume and is in a strong upward trend. Despite a 3.69% drop, it's still sitting in a range that suggests continued strength. Semiconductors, and anything related to hardware, are considered key charts to watch in the coming months.

### 12. DX1! (US Dollar Index Futures) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rejection from resistance
**Key Levels:** 98.960 resistance, 97.550 support

The US Dollar Index (DXY) went up to its zone of resistance at 98.960 and was crushed, almost as if the Bank of Japan was waiting for that moment. This led to a rebalance that crushed the DXY back down, suggesting continued weakness for the dollar.

### 13. USDJPY (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** sharp drop after hitting resistance
**Key Levels:** 160.255 resistance, 155.972 support

The USDJPY pair hit 160.255 and then saw a huge rebalance, dropping sharply. This indicates the Bank of Japan's willingness to defend its currency, and we can expect continued central bank intervention. While the market doesn't seem to care right now, it will remain a key storyline in May.

### 14. SPY (SPDR S&P 500 Trust) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** dull market, grinding higher
**Key Levels:** 718.66 resistance, 705.00 support

The S&P 500 (SPY) is in a dull market, which is dangerous to short. It's grinding higher, with the daily 20-moving average now moving up to the 705.00 level, a major support. This suggests continued upward momentum despite the lack of clear direction.

### 15. US500 Index (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** climbing after earnings
**Key Levels:** 7205.3 options high level, 7054.7 options low level

The US500 Index is still climbing after earnings results, making it through 7200, which puts it in positive gamma territory. This indicates strong buying pressure and continued upward momentum.

### 16. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (2026-04-30 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive gamma
**Key Levels:** 7200 call resistance, 7045 HVL, 6930 put support, 7210 spot price

The SPX is in positive gamma territory, with a massive call wall at 7200. This opens up the possibility of reaching 7300, which is Tom Lee's target level. This suggests strong upward potential for the S&P 500.

### 17. Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ (2026-04-30 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive gamma
**Key Levels:** 495.0 call resistance, 484.6 HVL, 470.0 put support, 484.5 spot price

The QQQ is also in positive gamma territory, with strong call resistance at 495.0. This indicates continued bullish sentiment for the Nasdaq 100.

### 18. Net GEX All Expirations for IBIT (2026-04-30 15:59 EST)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong call walls
**Key Levels:** 45 call resistance, 43 HVL, 42 put support, 43.32 spot price

IBIT shows strong call walls at 44-45, indicating significant bullish sentiment. The crypto market is heavily influenced by options, and these call walls suggest continued upward pressure.

### 19. US30Y (United States 30 Year Government Bonds Yield) (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** approaching multi-year high
**Key Levels:** 5.00% resistance
**Historical Comparison:** last seen 20 years ago

The US 30-year government bond yield is approaching 5.00% once again, a level not seen in 20 years. This suggests that interest rate cuts may not happen, or if they do, it could be problematic. This is a significant warning signal for the market.

### 20. CLZ2026 (Crude Oil Futures Dec 2026) (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** steep upward trend, new high
**Key Levels:** 80.53 support, 81.42 current price

Crude oil futures (CLZ2026) are in a steep upward trend, making higher highs and higher lows, and have reached a new high. This suggests 'higher for longer' for oil prices, which will put more pressure on food and agribusiness, and the American consumer.

### 21. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil WTI) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** pulling up after sell-off
**Key Levels:** 84.751 major support, 112.000 resistance

USOIL is still pulling up after a sell-off (due to a roll contract). The weekly close will be important, with 112.000 being a key barrier to break through. This indicates continued upward momentum for oil prices.

### 22. XLE (Energy Select SPDR ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** good session after falling
**Key Levels:** 56.89 support, 59.65 current price

Energy stocks (XLE) had a good session, up 1% after falling a bit. This is consistent with the two-pronged market where both tech and energy are performing well, driven by AI data centers and defense spending.

### 23. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** stopping shorts, grinding higher
**Key Levels:** 484.59 support, 506.73 current price

Semiconductor stocks (SMH) haven't taken a new high yet, but they have managed to stop each short so far. Even with Nvidia going down, SMH is still managing to eke out gains, indicating continued strength in the sector.

### 24. SOXS (Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** high volume, bearish ETF
**Key Levels:** 13.30 current price

The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF (SOXS) has seen out-of-control volumes, indicating that many people are trying to go short on semiconductors. This suggests a clear division in the market, with some betting on a downturn in the tech sector.

### 25. SMH/SPY (Semiconductors vs. S&P 500) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** outperforming SPY
**Key Levels:** 0.4455 support, 0.7051 current ratio

Semiconductors (SMH) are still completely outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY), indicating significant gains in the tech sector. This highlights the continued strength of AI data centers and related spending.

### 26. KOSPI (KOSPI Composite Index) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** first sell-off after Samsung earnings
**Key Levels:** 6598.87 current price

The KOSPI Composite Index suffered its first little sell-off in a while after Samsung earnings, which were absolutely ballistic. This will be a key index to watch, as data and hardware-related sectors are crucial.

### 27. TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding daily 20-moving average, potential island reversal
**Key Levels:** 376.66 area to watch, 381.63 current price

Tesla (TSLA) is holding onto its daily 20-moving average. A gap up could suggest a well-formed island reversal on the daily chart, which is something to watch. The daily 20-moving average has been a very important point recently.

### 28. GOLD (Gold (XAUUSD)) (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rebound, but not at critical level
**Key Levels:** 4726.77 resistance, 4619.99 current price

Gold has managed a little bit of a rebound on small timeframes, but it's not really doing it at a critical level. There isn't much holding up gold, and while 4500 could be super critical, it hasn't been hit yet. More structure is needed for a clear direction.

### 29. SILVER (CFDs on Silver (US$/OZ)) (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** improvement, breaking 4-hour 20-moving average
**Key Levels:** 78.1364 resistance, 74.0881 current price

Silver has shown a little bit of improvement, managing to get through the 4-hour 20-moving average, which has stopped it each time before. This suggests a potential upward trend for silver.

### 30. EEM (iShares MSCI Emerging Index Fund) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** continuing higher
**Key Levels:** 63.99 current price

Emerging markets (EEM) are continuing to go a little bit higher, indicating broader market strength beyond just the US.

### 31. HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** picking back up after flailing
**Key Levels:** 26,099 resistance, 25,646 support

Chinese markets (HSI1!) are picking back up after flailing around the same point. It's possible this could be a small head and shoulders pattern towards the negative side, but it's currently holding as best it can.

### 32. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** grinding higher, holding 2-hour 50-EMA
**Key Levels:** 27,750 resistance, 27,000 support

The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) is just crazy, still holding barely onto the 2-hour 50-exponential moving average. It has made higher highs again, suggesting continued upward momentum, grinding higher off a blockbuster earnings week and historical spending.

### 33. ETHUSDT (Ethereum / TetherUS) (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** sitting around, not doing much
**Key Levels:** 2395.77 resistance, 2348.81 retail steal

Ethereum (ETHUSDT) is not really doing much, just sitting around. It's not breaking any key levels, indicating a period of consolidation.

### 34. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** stuck in a zone
**Key Levels:** 79,093.58 resistance, 74,000 support

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) is also just sitting around, stuck in a zone between 74,000 support and 79,000 resistance. There's a lot of negative and bullish sentiment at this area, and it hasn't broken up or down yet, suggesting it may need a catalyst.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a unique regime characterized by massive government and big tech spending on AI data centers, leading to a two-pronged rally in both tech and energy sectors. This is occurring alongside rising national debt and central bank interventions, creating a 'follow the money' dynamic where traditional market signals are being overridden by the sheer volume of capital deployment. The acceleration of semiconductor growth is compared to the dot-com boom, raising questions about sustainability and future profit generation from these investments.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch for potential changes to IPO rules by S&P and Nasdaq to allow faster inclusion of new public companies into indexes, which could pull passive demand forward for large IPOs like SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and Databricks.
- Monitor the energy demand bottleneck as over $700 billion is projected to be spent on data centers, energy demand, semiconductors, and networking by 2026. Identify where the structural bottlenecks will form.
- Be aware of the Bank of Japan's continued intervention in USDJPY, as they are willing to defend the 160.000 ceiling, which could lead to further volatility in currency markets.
- Exercise caution in shorting dull markets like the S&P 500, as they can be dangerous. Look for a clear breakdown before taking bearish positions.
- Pay close attention to the sustainability of current earnings, especially in the tech sector, as the market will eventually question where the profits will come from for these massive AI investments, particularly for companies deep in debt.
- Monitor the US 30-year government bond yield as it approaches 5.00%, which could signal that interest rate cuts are unlikely or problematic, impacting the broader market.

## All Instruments Mentioned
US500 Index, XLE, SMH, USDJPY, SNDK, SPX, AMD, DX1!, SPY, QQQ, IBIT, US30Y, CLZ2026, USOIL, SOXS, KOSPI, TSLA, GOLD, SILVER, EEM, HSI1!, NAS100, ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-05-02 23:02:12*