# This Has Only Happened 4 Times….
**Date:** 2026-05-03  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfUkHAOqUb8)

## Main Thesis
The market is exhibiting signs of extreme frothiness, particularly in the semiconductor and AI sectors, with historical comparisons suggesting potential volatility ahead. While earnings have been strong, increasing credit default swaps and high leverage indicate underlying risks, urging caution and strong risk management.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. META (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 608.75 current price, 650.00 resistance, 550.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) is showing signs of credit default swaps (CDS) blowing out, indicating increased risk. The price has recently dropped from around 690 to 608.75. The speaker highlights that this is happening in some of the biggest stocks and not enough people are talking about it. The AI trade and debt are linked to 2026, suggesting future concerns.

### 2. SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** strong uptrend
**Key Levels:** 10,595.34 current price, 81.97 RSI level
**Historical Comparison:** RSI levels similar to 2017

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has been going 'absolutely ballistic' over the last month, reaching an RSI level of 81.97. This level has not been seen since 2017, which the speaker implies could be a precursor to a market correction. The overall trend is a strong uptrend, but the extreme RSI suggests it's overbought.

### 3. BRK.B (Berkshire Hathaway Inc. New) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 473.01 current price, 480.00 resistance, 440.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** Berkshire's cash holdings before the Global Financial Crisis (2005-2007)

Berkshire Hathaway is entering a new all-time high in cash holdings, currently at $397 billion. The speaker notes that Warren Buffett cashed up significantly around 2005, years before the Global Financial Crisis. This current cash pile suggests a 'difference of opinion' among big players in the market, especially in a volatile mid-term election year.

### 4. META 5Yr CDS (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** strong uptrend
**Key Levels:** 74.88 current level, 60.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** Oracle (ORCL) stock movement

Meta's 5-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are rising significantly, indicating that markets are seeking insurance against potential defaults. This trend is compared to Oracle (ORCL) earlier in the year, where rising CDS preceded a substantial stock decline. The market is concerned about Meta's large AI spending without a clear path to profitability.

### 5. 3x leveraged semiconductor ETP volume (SOXL + SOXS) vs. 3x leveraged SPY volume (SPXL + SPXS) (daily (since 2025))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** semiconductor volume spike
**Key Levels:** 320M+ semiconductor ETP volume, 180M+ SPY ETP volume
**Historical Comparison:** null

Volume in 3x leveraged semiconductor ETFs (SOXL + SOXS) is going 'absolutely ballistic' from both retail and institutional sides, far exceeding 3x leveraged SPY volume. This indicates extreme speculation and leverage in the semiconductor sector, which the speaker warns is a 'frothy trade' and what goes up can come down quickly. Risk management is crucial.

### 6. AAII Sentiment Survey (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** shifting sentiment
**Key Levels:** 38.1% bullish, 22.2% neutral, 39.7% bearish
**Historical Comparison:** sentiment broken since November 2024

AAII sentiment reports are mixed, with a shift from bearish to more bullish sentiment over the last month. The speaker notes that these sentiment reports have been 'broken' since November 2024, implying they are no longer reliable indicators due to strong opinions in the market. The importance lies in observing neutrality or fewer bears.

### 7. S&P 500: % Deviation From Log-Linear Trend line (monthly (since 1950))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** deviation from trendline
**Key Levels:** ~60% deviation from trend
**Historical Comparison:** dot-com boom

The S&P 500 is showing a significant deviation from its log-linear trend line, currently around 60%. While not as extreme as the dot-com boom, the market is 'a little bit too far away' from its general trend. This suggests an overextended market, similar to historical periods before corrections.

### 8. Nasdaq 100: % Deviation From Log-Linear Trend line (monthly (since 1985))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** deviation from trendline
**Key Levels:** ~147.7% deviation from trend
**Historical Comparison:** dot-com boom

The Nasdaq 100 is also showing a large deviation from its log-linear trend line, reaching levels seen before the 2022 sell-off and approaching dot-com boom levels. This indicates a 'very feisty' market driven by upgrades, and while not completely detached from reality like the dot-com boom, it's getting very aggressive.

### 9. SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend
**Key Levels:** 720.65 current price, 705.00 support, 730.00 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The SPY ETF is in a strong uptrend, with the advance-decline line also moving higher, indicating broad market strength. Despite a 'shooting star' candle on Friday suggesting some selling into weekend risk, the market has not made a lower low or broken key support levels like 705. The speaker emphasizes looking 'underneath the hood' at market breadth.

### 10. Sector Rotation (XLE, XLK, etc.) (intraday (5-6 days))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** divergent rotation
**Key Levels:** XLE (Energy) up, SMH (Semiconductors) up
**Historical Comparison:** null

Over the last 5-6 days, the market has shown a 'very different market' with both energy (XLE) and semiconductors (SMH) increasing simultaneously. This divergent rotation suggests that 'eventually someone's probably going to be right and someone's going to be wrong,' as these two sectors don't typically move up together, especially with current geopolitical events.

### 11. S&P 500: May Seasonality Following April Gains Above 5% (monthly (since 1950))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** seasonal pattern
**Key Levels:** average price path up
**Historical Comparison:** May performance in years with April gains >5%

Historically, May seasonality following April gains above 5% shows a mixed picture, with some weakness at the beginning of May but generally a 'pretty strong average price path' across the board. The speaker notes that while this is no guarantee, the market structure coming into May is not as bad as some might think.

### 12. Semiconductor Index SOX: Monthly % Change Since 1994 (monthly (since 1994))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rapid rally
**Key Levels:** peak monthly % change
**Historical Comparison:** dot-com boom

The Semiconductor Index (SOX) has experienced one of the fastest rallies ever recorded, with monthly percentage changes reaching levels similar to the dot-com boom. The speaker warns that such fierce and quick gains tend to lead to 'a little bit weaker gains' afterward, as the market gets ahead of itself, suggesting potential repricing or pricing above its overall risks.

### 13. XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) vs. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** divergent trends
**Key Levels:** XLE 59.03, SMH 499.58
**Historical Comparison:** null

Energy (XLE) and semiconductors (SMH) are showing divergent trends. XLE has seen a significant drop, while SMH is rallying. The speaker highlights that news about food and energy prices, and geopolitical issues, are not as prominent in the news, suggesting a shift in focus. Jerome Powell's mention of tariff costs hitting the US is also a concern.

### 14. S&P 500 – Quarterly EPS Estimates (quarterly (since 2025))

**Bias:** BEARISH (FOR META)
**Pattern:** upgraded earnings estimates
**Key Levels:** 1Q'26 EPS estimates at $78+
**Historical Comparison:** Oracle (ORCL) and Meta (META) earnings

S&P 500 quarterly EPS estimates are 'absolutely ballistic,' with semiconductor and tech earnings being upgraded. The only 'blip on the horizon' is Meta, which is showing signs of market punishment due to unclear profitability for its AI spending, similar to Oracle's situation. The speaker questions if this could be a turning point for Meta to the downside.

### 15. SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** cluster trades
**Key Levels:** 720.65 current price, 700.00 support, 730.00 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** IWM (Russell) cluster trades

The SPY ETF has seen significant 'cluster trades' on major ETFs, particularly in the Russell (IWM) and now the first two on SPY. These massive transactions, especially during the March period, led to a huge rally. The speaker suggests keeping an eye on these, as if markets choose to change trend downwards, these could signal sells.

### 16. AMD (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** dark pool trades
**Key Levels:** 334.99 current price, 250.00 support, 350.00 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

AMD is showing significant dark pool trades, with the 11th largest trade occurring recently. This suggests that some investors might be 'trimming their profits' after a strong run. The speaker notes that while we don't know for sure, it makes sense given the charts.

### 17. US30Y (US Government Bonds 30 Year Yield) (3-monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** uptrend
**Key Levels:** 4.961% current yield, 5.047% resistance
**Historical Comparison:** over a decade of yield data

The US 30-year government bond yield is coming under pressure, with the market not having seen a 5%+ yield hold up in over a decade. This is a critical level to watch, especially with the new Fed Chair. The speaker notes that the Fed controls the short end, while the long end is market-driven, making the spread between them telling.

### 18. US02Y (US Government Bonds 2 Year Yield) (3-monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 3.880% current yield, 4.721% resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US 2-year government bond yield is showing a slight downtrend after hitting resistance. Jerome Powell's decision to stay on as Fed Chair is a big story, and the speaker is interested to see how this plays out, especially in relation to the long-end yields.

### 19. META (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** null
**Key Levels:** 608.75 current price, 564.35 support, 700.00 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** Oracle (ORCL) stock movement

Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) is down 11% after earnings, driven by concerns about its massive AI spending without a clear path to profitability. The market is questioning if Meta has a 'natural engine' for future profitability. The speaker compares this to Oracle's situation, where a lack of clear profitability led to a 60% sell-off, highlighting the risk in Meta if it doesn't demonstrate a clear path to returns on its AI investments.

### 20. CLZ2026 (Crude Oil Futures Dec 2026) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend
**Key Levels:** 79.53 current price, 80.53 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Crude Oil Futures (Dec 2026) are showing an uptrend, with prices closing slightly higher for the week, despite what might be expected if semiconductors were flying high. The speaker notes that most retail traders don't look at December futures, but it's important to consider the long-term view. The oil market is moving higher, which is contrary to the semiconductor rally.

### 21. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil WTI) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend
**Key Levels:** 102.339 current price, 84.751 major support, 110.560 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

US Oil (WTI) is in an uptrend, with prices holding above key support levels. The speaker notes that both US Oil and UK Oil (Brent) are important to watch. Despite a slight drop, US Oil is still holding its high, which is again seen as contrary to the semiconductor rally, suggesting a disconnect in market movements.

### 22. UKOIL (CFDs on Brent Crude Oil) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** uptrend
**Key Levels:** 109.21 current price, 111.65 resistance, 85.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

UK Oil (Brent) is holding its high, closing exactly where resistance would be expected. The speaker notes that energy stocks in general are showing a doji through the Friday session, indicating indecision. While the overall trend is up, the price action suggests a pause at resistance.

### 23. XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** doji
**Key Levels:** 58.85 current price, 56.89 support, 60.00 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

XLE (Energy) saw a nice recovery after being the number one sized trade. It closed with a doji on Friday, indicating indecision. The speaker notes a 'slight different change of trend' but the market is still disconnected from semiconductors.

### 24. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (4-hourly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend, mini island reversal
**Key Levels:** 509.80 current price, 480.00 support, 520.00 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Semiconductors (SMH) continue to drive higher, bouncing off a trend line after what could have been a 'mini island reversal' last week. This is a 'very aggressive market' with a lot of activity. The speaker reiterates that this is the 'backbone of this bubble run' and that bubbles can go on for a long time.

### 25. SOXS (Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 12.98 current price, -3.80 support, 20.00 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** unprecedented volume

The Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF (SOXS) is showing 'huge money' going in on both the bull and bear sides, with unprecedented volume. This indicates a clear disconnect between traders and investors, and the speaker emphasizes that Wall Street will likely pick the direction that makes them the most money. This is a story to keep watching for dark pools and unusual activity.

### 26. SMH/SPY (Semiconductor ETF / S&P 500 ETF ratio) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong uptrend
**Key Levels:** 0.7074 current ratio, 0.4455 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The SMH/SPY ratio is in a strong uptrend, indicating that semiconductors are significantly outperforming the broader market. The speaker states that this is the 'backbone of this bubble run' and that bubbles can go on for a long time. This is seen as the 'best technology that's going to come out' and the 'biggest thing since the rail'.

### 27. KOSPI (KOSPI Composite Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** uptrend, potential topping pattern
**Key Levels:** 6,598.87 current price, 6,127.65 support, 6,800.00 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The KOSPI Composite Index (South Korea's hardware-style index) continues its strong uptrend, but the speaker suggests it's showing signs of topping. While it could go higher, the speaker believes it's a 'sign generally of topping markets' and advises extreme risk management. The market has gone up almost 200% in just over a year.

### 28. TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gap up, struggling at resistance
**Key Levels:** 390.82 current price, 376.66 area to watch, 400.00 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Tesla (TSLA) had a slight gap up after holding the daily 20-moving average. It's now struggling at the 400.00 resistance level. If it breaks above 400.00, it could enter positive gamma. The speaker notes that Tesla is doing what would be expected right now, despite some negative sentiment from commenters.

### 29. GOLD (XAUUSD) (4-hourly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** small time frame change of trend
**Key Levels:** 4,614.28 current price, 4,700.00 pressure, 4,500.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Gold (XAUUSD) saw a rally, completing an inverse head and shoulders pattern and moving past the most traded zone on the way down. It's now hitting resistance at 4700.00. While the small-timeframe trend is up, the overall higher timeframe trend is still down, and the monthly trend is up, creating a mixed picture.

### 30. SILVER (CFDs on Silver) (4-hourly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** inverse head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 75.3090 current price, 78.1364 resistance, 72.0000 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Silver (CFDs on Silver) completed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, moving past the most traded zone on the way down and hitting resistance. Similar to gold, it's finding a bit of a hold but is still technically in lower lows and lower highs on higher timeframes.

### 31. HSI (Hang Seng Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** coiling, potential head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 25,992 current price, 26,099 resistance, 25,646 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Chinese markets (Hang Seng Index Futures) are holding their own and 'coiling through.' The speaker notes a potential head and shoulders pattern towards the downside, but it needs to break below support for that to confirm. It hasn't done that yet, indicating continued indecision.

### 32. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (2-hourly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 27,679.9 current price, 27,750.0 resistance, 26,875.0 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Nasdaq 100 (NAS100) 'just keeps climbing,' making a series of higher highs and higher lows. The speaker warns against fighting this trend, as algorithms are 'ripping the shorts.' While there was some weakness on the 2-hour 50-moving average, it has since continued to make higher highs and hold, indicating continued strength.

### 33. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** uptrend, interacting with trendline
**Key Levels:** 78,181.09 current price, 79,093.58 resistance, 72,134.42 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) is interacting with a key trendline and the 79,093.58 resistance level. It managed to rebound a bit but hasn't broken that important level yet. The speaker notes the interesting interaction of options markets with crypto and highlights the 'flows from whales' as a significant factor. It's a very interesting time for crypto, even if most people aren't talking about it.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a 'bubble run' driven by the semiconductor and AI sectors, with extreme leverage and frothy trades. Historical comparisons to the dot-com boom and 2017 suggest potential volatility and corrections. Divergent movements between energy and tech, along with rising credit default swaps, indicate underlying risks. The speaker emphasizes that while bubbles can last, extreme risk management is crucial.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Practice extreme risk management in the current market.
- Watch for clear paths to profitability in AI companies like Meta.
- Be cautious of highly leveraged trades in sectors like semiconductors.
- Monitor the US 30-year bond yield for sustained breaks above 5%.
- Look for dark pool trades and unusual activity as potential indicators of market shifts.

## All Instruments Mentioned
META, SOX, BRK.B, ORCL, SOXL, SOXS, SPXL, SPXS, SPY, IWM, AMD, XLE, SMH, US30Y, US02Y, CLZ2026, USOIL, UKOIL, XLE, SMH, SOXS, SMH/SPY, KOSPI, TSLA, GOLD, SILVER, HSI, NAS100, BTCUSDT

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-05-03 23:01:23*