# Warren Buffett Just Said This About Markets…
**Date:** 2026-05-06  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QpEaOlfae_w)

## Main Thesis
The market is currently in a 'gambling mood' driven by AI spending, leading to unprecedented highs in certain sectors and indicators, but underlying economic concerns like sticky inflation and rising bond yields suggest potential instability.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. AMD (1M)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward trend, breakout
**Key Levels:** 355.26 current price, 400.00 potential target

AMD is up 227% and has hit an all-time high, driven by massive AI spending. Earnings were out of control, with a 16% jump in after-hours trading, leading to a market cap surpassing $500 billion. The chart shows a strong monthly uptrend with recent large green candles.

### 2. GB30Y (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** breakout, upward trend
**Key Levels:** 5.667% previous high, 5.742% current high

UK 30-Year Government Bonds Yield is breaking out once again, showing signs of sticky inflation. The chart displays a weekly uptrend, with the yield surpassing previous highs. This indicates rising interest rates and potential economic pressure.

### 3. US30Y (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** upward trend, flirting with resistance
**Key Levels:** 5.00% psychological level

US 30-Year Government Bonds Yield is flirting with the 5% level, a level not seen for a very long time. The chart shows multiple attempts to break above 5.00%, indicating strong upward pressure on yields. This could lead to market questioning what's going on.

### 4. The Buffett Indicator: Market Cap to GDP (All)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** all-time high
**Key Levels:** 227% current ratio
**Historical Comparison:** previous peaks in 2000 and 2007

The Buffett Indicator (Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio) has hit a new all-time high at 227%. Historically, this indicator has been reliable for long-term investment but has been less effective with the rise of tech stocks. Warren Buffett believes markets are entering a 'gambling mood' and are getting shaky.

### 5. Hyperscaler Capex (Yearly projections)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** exponential growth
**Key Levels:** $449bn (2024), $765bn (2026 prior), $805bn (2026 current), $950bn (2027 prior), $1.116tn (2027 current)

Morgan Stanley now sees hyperscaler capex approaching $800bn to $1.1 trillion in 2026/2027, up from previous estimates. This chart shows a significant increase in projected spending by major tech companies (AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, ORCL) on AI infrastructure, potentially adding 2.5-3% to US GDP.

### 6. GB30Y (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** upward trend, breakout
**Key Levels:** 5.742% current high

UK bonds are breaking out once again, with the yield reaching 5.742%. This is part of a broader trend across Western nations, including Australia's RBA raising rates for the third time this year, and the US flirting with 5% yields. This indicates persistent inflation and pressure on markets.

### 7. AMD (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward trend
**Key Levels:** 355.26 current price, 414.00 after-hours high

AMD is up 16.54% in after-hours trading and 4.02% today, with a market cap of $579.19 billion. The P/E ratio is 136.15, indicating high valuation. Data center demand is up 57%, and overall revenue is up 38% year-on-year. Lisa Su, AMD's CEO, stated that demand for AI infrastructure is accelerating meaningfully, driving the stock higher.

### 8. AMD Weekly RSI > 80 (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/CAUTIONARY
**Pattern:** overbought conditions
**Key Levels:** RSI > 80
**Historical Comparison:** previous periods of RSI > 80

This chart shows AMD's weekly RSI (14) exceeding 80, which has historically indicated that the stock is in overbought territory. While not always a precise timing indicator, it suggests that the majority of the upward move might be two-thirds to three-quarters complete, implying caution.

### 9. Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern (Monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH (SHORT-TERM)
**Pattern:** seasonal trend
**Key Levels:** April/May peak, September/October trough
**Historical Comparison:** average change from 1950-2021

This chart illustrates the typical seasonal pattern for markets in a midterm election year. It suggests that markets often top in May or June, followed by a pullback into September or October, before rallying into year-end. This aligns with Tom Lee's call for a potential pullback after hitting 7300.

### 10. DRAM - Roundhill Memory ETF (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend, large trades near highs
**Key Levels:** 42.47 current price, 37.00-39.00 support

The DRAM ETF, which focuses on memory, is showing significant upward movement. Large trades are coming through near the close highs, indicating strong institutional interest. This is a key area to watch as memory is a backbone of the current market rally.

### 11. Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQ) - 21-Day Fund Flow (Daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/CAUTIONARY
**Pattern:** strong inflows during rallies
**Key Levels:** High fund inflows
**Historical Comparison:** previous periods of high inflows

The 21-day sum of daily fund flows into QQQ shows that 'everybody is back in the pool,' with significant inflows during recent rallies. While this can sustain upward momentum, historically, such extreme inflows have often preceded periods where cheaper prices were available in the future, suggesting potential FOMO.

### 12. META 5Yr CDS (Daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/CAUTIONARY
**Pattern:** upward trend, recent pullback and rally
**Key Levels:** 74.80 current level

Meta's 5-year Credit Default Swaps (CDS) show an upward trend, indicating increasing perceived risk. While AI spending is driving enthusiasm, there isn't a clear path to profitability for Meta compared to other tech giants. This chart suggests that not everything is 'rosy and great' in the market.

### 13. S&P 500 Performance Following 2+ New Highs in April and May (Historical paths since 1950)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/MIXED
**Pattern:** mixed historical performance after new highs
**Key Levels:** Average Price Path
**Historical Comparison:** 1959, 1964, 1965, 1972, 1989, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2013, 2014, 2020

This chart analyzes S&P 500 performance after two or more new highs in April and May since 1950. The historical data shows a mixed bag, with some years leading to further gains and others experiencing pullbacks. The average price path suggests a potential for continued upward movement, but with underlying volatility.

### 14. Nasdaq 100: % Deviation From Log-Linear Trend line (Monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/CAUTIONARY
**Pattern:** deviation from trend
**Key Levels:** Log-Linear Trend Line
**Historical Comparison:** dot-com bubble peak

The Nasdaq 100's percentage deviation from its log-linear trend line shows that while the market is expensive, it's not yet at the 'insane' levels seen during the dot-com bubble. This suggests that there might still be room for growth, but the current deviation is notable.

### 15. 3x leveraged semiconductor volumes (SOXL + SOXS) (Daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/CAUTIONARY
**Pattern:** extreme volume divergence
**Key Levels:** High volume in SOXL, Low volume in SPY

This chart from Goldman Sachs shows that 3x leveraged semiconductor ETF volumes (SOXL) are through the roof, while 3x leveraged SPY ETF volumes are quite low. This indicates a high concentration of trading activity and speculation in the semiconductor sector, which is the backbone of the current AI-driven market.

### 16. S&P 500 - Quarterly EPS Estimates (Quarterly projections)

**Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM), CAUTIONARY (LONG-TERM)
**Pattern:** upward revisions
**Key Levels:** 1Q'26 estimates at $78

S&P 500 quarterly EPS estimates are being upgraded significantly, with 1Q'26 estimates reaching $78. This indicates strong earnings expectations, but the market is upgrading these estimates in front of actual results, which is unusual and could lead to overvaluation if growth rates are unsustainable.

### 17. S&P 500 Price Returns vs Forward EPS Growth (Year-over-Year Change)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/CAUTIONARY
**Pattern:** divergence between price returns and EPS growth
**Key Levels:** +27% current growth
**Historical Comparison:** previous periods of divergence

This chart shows S&P 500 price returns versus 12-month forward EPS growth. The path projection for forward EPS is expected to drop off, while price returns have been strong. This divergence suggests that current market prices might be running ahead of fundamental earnings growth, raising questions about sustainability.

### 18. S&P 500 - Forward P/E-Ratio (Monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/CAUTIONARY
**Pattern:** above historical averages
**Key Levels:** 20.7x current P/E, 20.0x 5-year average, 19.0x 10-year average
**Historical Comparison:** 5-year and 10-year averages

The S&P 500 forward P/E ratio is currently at 20.7x, which is above both the 5-year (20.0x) and 10-year (19.0x) averages. While not at extreme bubble levels, it indicates that the market is priced richly, especially considering the expected drop-off in EPS growth. Semiconductor stocks are being repriced based on committed spending.

### 19. Bitcoin Commercials' Net Position (Weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM), CAUTIONARY (LONG-TERM)
**Pattern:** negative commercial positioning
**Key Levels:** Negative net position
**Historical Comparison:** previous periods of negative positioning

Bitcoin commercials' net position is very negative, which has historically led to Bitcoin price increases. However, recent whale charts also show some demand around key zones. This suggests a potential for short-term upside, but the overall market sentiment might be getting overheated with everyone piling in.

### 20. Most Anticipated Earnings Releases May 04, 2026 (Weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/VOLATILE
**Pattern:** earnings-driven volatility
**Key Levels:** AMD +16% implied move, ARM +10% implied move

This chart from Earnings Whispers shows the most anticipated earnings releases for the week of May 04, 2026. AMD and ARM, key semiconductor players, had significant implied moves (AMD +10%, ARM +10%), with AMD actually moving +16%. This highlights the high volatility and earnings-driven nature of the current market, especially in tech.

### 21. Earnings Releases by Implied Movement Week of May 04th (Weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/VOLATILE
**Pattern:** earnings-driven volatility
**Key Levels:** AMD +16% actual move, ARM +10% actual move

This chart from Earnings Watcher shows the actual implied movement for earnings releases. AMD's actual move was +16%, exceeding the implied +10%. Trading these pairs requires awareness of expected moves. The market's reaction to earnings, especially in tech, is highly volatile, with some companies like Uber and McDonald's also showing significant moves.

### 22. DXY (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 98.960 key resistance, 97.550 key support

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently stuck within the range of its high and low, with no significant updates. It is trading between key resistance at 98.960 and key support at 97.550, indicating a period of consolidation.

### 23. SPY (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 723.77 current price, 706.01 previous support

SPY is still making a series of higher highs and higher lows on very low volume. The advance-decline line is not making new lows, which would indicate a structural change. The market is currently relatively broad, with sustained upward momentum.

### 24. US500 (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** dip buying, new highs
**Key Levels:** 7324.9 options high level, 7195.5 options low level, 7054.7 previous support

The US500 is showing continued dip buying and new highs, with the 2-hour 50 exponential moving average holding strong. The options market indicates high levels at 7324.9 and low levels at 7195.5. The market has not yet fallen below these key levels, requiring patience before reacting to potential reversals.

### 25. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (2026-05-05 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/CAUTIONARY
**Pattern:** strong call wall at 7300
**Key Levels:** 7300 call resistance, 6800 put support, 7259 spot price

The Net GEX for SPX shows a massive call wall at 7300. Breaking through this level would lead to more positive gamma. The 7150 level is becoming the most put-struck level. This indicates significant resistance at 7300, making it a crucial level for the market to overcome.

### 26. NVDA (All Expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/CAUTIONARY
**Pattern:** fickle AI industry
**Key Levels:** 196.5 spot price, 195 call resistance, 185 put support

Nvidia's options chain shows that it is no longer the sole leader in the AI industry, with other semiconductor companies gaining traction. This highlights the fickle nature of the AI sector, where leadership can shift quickly. This chart serves as a warning about the rapid repricing of assets in this space.

### 27. TSLA (All Expirations)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/CAUTIONARY
**Pattern:** call wall at 400
**Key Levels:** 400 call resistance, 380 put support

Tesla hit 400 and was immediately 'nailed down' by a call wall, demonstrating the power of these options levels. The stock has found support at the 20-day moving average on the way down. If Tesla breaks past 400, it could trigger positive gamma and further upward movement.

### 28. IBIT (All Expirations)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive gamma
**Key Levels:** 46.28 spot price, 44 call resistance, 35 put support

Crypto (IBIT) is in positive gamma, which is a rare occurrence. It has moved through 45-46 and closed above 46, indicating a significant bullish move. This suggests that the crypto market is gaining momentum and could continue its upward trend.

### 29. MOVE (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/CAUTIONARY
**Pattern:** higher high, early warning sign
**Key Levels:** 76.7767 current level, 74.0129 previous low

The MOVE index (US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index) has made a higher high, which has historically been an early warning sign for market volatility. While it can also indicate lows when combined with other factors, it suggests that a bit of risk is starting to come into the markets.

### 30. US02Y (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** spiking yields
**Key Levels:** 4.013% key resistance, 3.946% current yield

US 2-Year Government Bonds Yields are spiking up across the board, whether it's UK bonds, the RBA in Australia raising rates, or concerns about the Fed's actions. This indicates persistent inflation and could put significant pressure on markets in the future, especially with the upcoming May Fed meeting.

### 31. US10Y (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** approaching key resistance
**Key Levels:** 4.500% key resistance, 4.426% current yield

The US 10-Year Government Bonds Yield is getting close to the 4.5% level, and the 30-year yield is nearing 5%. If these levels are breached, it could lead to increased fear of the unknown in the markets, as rising yields typically put downward pressure on equity valuations.

### 32. XLE (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding better than other sectors
**Key Levels:** 63.05 previous high, 59.45 current price

Energy stocks (XLE) are still holding up better than other sectors, but there has been a bit of a movement down in overall barrel costs. This suggests that while energy companies are relatively resilient, a sustained drop in oil prices could eventually impact them.

### 33. USOIL (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound, not breaking out
**Key Levels:** 113.040 key resistance, 100.373 current price, 84.750 major support

US Crude Oil (WTI) has not broken out to new unknown highs yet, remaining within a range. The barrel cost hasn't moved significantly. The market is closely watching the forward barrel prices for future direction.

### 34. XME (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BULLISH
**Pattern:** consolidation, potential flag pattern
**Key Levels:** 125.58 previous high, 118.89 current price

Metals (XME) are currently in a consolidation phase, potentially forming a flag pattern. This could lead to a breakout, as many believe we are heading into a period of stagflation or inflation, which would typically benefit commodities.

### 35. SOX (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM), CAUTIONARY (LONG-TERM)
**Pattern:** going ballistic, overbought RSI
**Key Levels:** 10980.58 current price, 7200 previous support, 81.43 RSI
**Historical Comparison:** only 4 other times this has happened

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) is going ballistic, well above 82 on the RSI. This has only happened four other times historically, and usually means the biggest part of the move is over, with any further gains being a 'blow-off' top. This indicates extreme bullishness but also potential for a sharp reversal.

### 36. NVDA (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/CAUTIONARY
**Pattern:** engulfing down, divergence from SOX
**Key Levels:** +60.66% vs SOX, +5.93% current week

Nvidia has engulfed down on the weekly chart, despite the overall semiconductor index (SOX) going ballistic. This shows a significant divergence, with Nvidia no longer being the sole leader. This highlights how quickly things can reprice in the market, especially in the AI sector.

### 37. SOXS (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** bearish ETF, high volume
**Key Levels:** 11.51 current price, 20.20 previous resistance

Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF (SOXS) is seeing huge amounts of volume as everyone tries to short semiconductors. However, it's tough to stop a freight train, especially the backbone of the market. This indicates strong bearish sentiment against semiconductors, but the underlying bullish trend is still dominant.

### 38. DRAM (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** all-time high, upward trend
**Key Levels:** 46.29 current price, 52.26 potential target

DRAM (Roundhill Memory ETF) is making new all-time highs, with the KOSPI (South Korean market) also going up significantly. This indicates strong demand for memory, a critical component in AI infrastructure. The market is showing a 'bubble-style' ramp, with prices potentially going even higher.

### 39. KOSPI (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH (SHORT-TERM), CAUTIONARY (LONG-TERM)
**Pattern:** bubble-style ramp
**Key Levels:** 7390.51 current price, 6400 previous resistance, 4800 previous support
**Historical Comparison:** previous bubble markets

The KOSPI (Korea Composite Index) is experiencing a 'bubble-style' ramp, with prices going up significantly. This looks similar to previous bubble markets where prices ramped more than expected. Historically, this type of move can be an early sign of decline, but for now, the market is pushing higher.

### 40. IGV (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/CAUTIONARY
**Pattern:** hitting resistance, massive volume
**Key Levels:** 92.00 resistance, 88.41 previous resistance, 88.27 current price

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) is hitting resistance at 88.41, with massive volume. This indicates strong demand, but also a potential ceiling for prices. The high capex spend in tech is driving demand, but someone will ultimately be left holding the bags if prices become unsustainable.

### 41. TSLA (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/CAUTIONARY
**Pattern:** rejected at call wall
**Key Levels:** 400.62 massive call wall, 389.37 current price, 376.66 area to watch

Tesla hit a massive call wall at 400.62 and was rejected. The stock has found support at the 20-day moving average. If it breaks past 400, it could trigger positive gamma and further upside. However, the rejection at the call wall highlights significant resistance.

### 42. GOLD (XAUUSD) (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** double bottom, rebalance
**Key Levels:** 4813.86 target, 4660.10 interesting resistance, 4501.79 previous support

Gold reached 4500, then experienced a massive rebalance back up, potentially forming a double bottom. If this pattern confirms, the target could be 4813.86. This indicates positive signs for gold, although it has just come into resistance at 4660.10.

### 43. SILVER (XAGUSD) (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BULLISH
**Pattern:** pickup, not as strong as gold
**Key Levels:** 78.1364 resistance, 75.5378 current price, 76.80 breakout level

Silver has seen a bit of a pickup, but it's not as strong as gold. We're looking for a breakout above 76.80 for a more significant move. This suggests that while there's some positive momentum, it's lagging behind gold.

### 44. HSI1! (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** staying within zone
**Key Levels:** 26099 resistance, 26031 current price, 25646 support

The Chinese market (Hang Seng Index Futures) is staying within its zone, with nothing much going on. It's trading between resistance at 26099 and support at 25646, indicating a period of consolidation.

### 45. XJO (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/CAUTIONARY
**Pattern:** struggling at 9000, potential tweezer top
**Key Levels:** 9000 resistance, 8755.9 current price, 8394.8 support

The Australian market (S&P/ASX 200 Index) has been struggling at the 9000 level, with multiple rejections. The current weekly candle could form a tweezer top, which is a strong bearish pattern. This market is heavily influenced by housing and variable interest rates, making it vulnerable to rate hikes.

### 46. NAS100 (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward trend, dip buying
**Key Levels:** 29060 potential target, 28219.4 current price, 27121.5 previous support

The Nasdaq 100 is showing a strong, strong, strong upward trend, with the 2-hour 50 exponential moving average holding perfectly. It has consistently made higher highs and higher lows, with any slight pullbacks being bought up. This indicates extreme bullishness and resilience in the tech sector.

### 47. BTCUSDT (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** piling in, daily 20 support
**Key Levels:** 86519.49 resistance, 81527.84 current price, 79093.58 support

Bitcoin is still seeing strong inflows, with prices piling in. The daily 20-day moving average and anchored VWAP are key levels to watch for potential pullbacks. While the market is bullish, it's important to monitor these levels for any signs of reversal.

### 48. ETHUSDT (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BULLISH
**Pattern:** flag pattern, consolidation
**Key Levels:** 2395.77 resistance, 2375.32 current price, 2200 support

Ethereum is showing a flag pattern and consolidation, but it hasn't yet broken through the 2400 resistance level. Usually, Ethereum would follow Bitcoin's lead, so the lack of a strong breakout is notable. This suggests a potential for a breakout soon, but it's currently lagging.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The video highlights a market driven by AI spending, leading to a 'gambling mood' as described by Warren Buffett. This is contrasted with underlying concerns about sticky inflation, rising bond yields (UK, Australia, US), and potential economic pressure. The market is characterized by concentrated trading in technology and semiconductor sectors, with earnings driving significant price movements. The Buffett Indicator hitting an all-time high and extreme RSI readings suggest potential overvaluation, while fund flows indicate widespread participation. The intermarket analysis points to a divergence between the strong performance of tech/AI and the increasing risk in bond markets.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Markets are in a 'gambling mood' and getting shaky.
- AI spending is driving unprecedented market growth, with hyperscaler capex approaching $1.1 trillion by 2027.
- Sticky inflation and rising bond yields (UK, Australia, US) are putting pressure on markets.
- The Buffett Indicator has hit an all-time high, suggesting potential overvaluation.
- AMD's earnings were 'out of control,' with a 16% jump in after-hours trading.
- Semiconductor ETFs are seeing extreme volumes, indicating high speculation.
- S&P 500 EPS estimates are being upgraded in front of actual results, which is unusual.
- Nasdaq 100's deviation from its log-linear trend is high but not yet 'insane' like the dot-com bubble.
- Tesla hit a massive call wall at 400 and was rejected.
- Gold is showing positive signs with a potential double bottom.
- Bitcoin commercials' net position is very negative, historically leading to price increases.
- Ethereum is consolidating in a flag pattern, lagging behind Bitcoin's recent moves.
- This year is all about 'earnings, earnings, earnings.'

## All Instruments Mentioned
AMD, GB30Y, US30Y, Wilshire 5000, GDP, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, ORCL, RBA, QQQ, DRAM, SPX, NVDA, TSLA, IBIT, MOVE, US02Y, US10Y, XLE, USOIL, XME, SOX, SOXS, KOSPI, IGV, XAUUSD, XAGUSD, HSI1!, XJO, NAS100, BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-05-09 23:05:53*