# How Much Crazier Can This Get?
**Date:** 2026-05-07  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Kfn3AiRWrY)

## Main Thesis
The market is experiencing an unprecedented AI-driven rally, particularly in semiconductors and hardware stocks, leading to extreme valuations and liquidity concerns reminiscent of past bubbles. While the trend is strong, there are signs of potential overheating and a reliance on debt-fueled growth.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPY/M2SL (3M)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** double top
**Historical Comparison:** 2000 dot-com bubble peak

The chart shows the S&P 500 divided by M2 money supply, indicating market capitalization relative to liquidity. Atkinson highlights two peaks: one around 2000 (dot-com bubble) and the current period (2023-2026). He notes that both periods show the market hitting liquidity problems, suggesting a potential bubble driven by debt rather than available cash.

### 2. SPX (1M)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong uptrend
**Key Levels:** 7365.11 current price

This chart displays the S&P 500 index on a monthly timeframe, showing a strong upward trend. Atkinson mentions a 900% increase in Anthropic's market capitalization over the last seven months, leading to 'bonkers rallies' in the markets, including new advance-decline line peaks and significant gains in hardware and semiconductor stocks.

### 3. GOLD (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation
**Key Levels:** 4702.96 current price, 4632.80 support

The chart shows Gold (XAUUSD) on a weekly timeframe, currently consolidating around the 4700 level. Atkinson questions why attention should be paid to hedges like gold and oil, especially with potential peace talks, suggesting a cautious approach despite the broader market rally.

### 4. MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, NVDA, GOOGL, META, JPM, BRK-B, LLY, ABBV, JNJ, XOM, COST, WMT, NFLX, GE, VZ, T, TJX, K (daily)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** mixed performance, strong in tech

A heat map of S&P 500 stocks categorized by sector and industry. Most tech stocks (MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, GOOGL, META) are green, indicating positive performance, with NVDA showing a significant +5.77%. Atkinson emphasizes the strong session for semiconductors and the decoupling of markets from 'some points of reality' due to AI spending.

### 5. Anthropic, Google Cloud (N/A)

**Bias:** BEARISH (BUBBLE CONCERN)
**Pattern:** rapid valuation increase

A tweet from FX Evolution highlights Anthropic's +900% valuation since Oct 2025, implying $1.2T in value creation, and Google's $200B commitment to Google Cloud. Goldman Sachs warns the AI semiconductor boom is 'unprecedented and unsustainable.' Atkinson reiterates his long-standing view that semiconductors and hardware stocks are the backbone of this market.

### 6. OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Oracle, Google, Amazon (N/A)

**Bias:** BEARISH (BUBBLE CONCERN)
**Pattern:** significant spending commitments

A bar chart titled 'AI Whales' shows OpenAI and Anthropic's spending commitments to major US cloud providers as a percentage of their revenue backlog. Microsoft, Oracle, Google, and Amazon are shown with substantial commitments. Atkinson points out that if these AI spending commitments were removed, it would take out almost half of the total spend, suggesting an 'AI bubble' where people are getting ahead of themselves.

### 7. QCOM, SNDK, MSTR, LRCX, ASML, CTSH, AMAT, ADI, ADBE, CSGP, REGN, NVDA, AAPL, AMD, WBD, MRVL, INTC, STX, MU, WDC (N/A)

**Bias:** BEARISH (BUBBLE CONCERN)
**Pattern:** extreme performance
**Historical Comparison:** Top 10 NDX Name Performance 1999 vs. Today

A table comparing the Top 10 NDX Name Performance in 1999, 2000, and Today (5/5/25-5/5/26). Atkinson highlights extreme percentage increases, particularly for SNDK (SanDisk) at 3960% today, surpassing Western Digital. He notes that these numbers are 'crazy' and indicate that markets are getting ahead of themselves, similar to the dot-com bubble.

### 8. SPY/M2SL (3M)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** double top
**Historical Comparison:** 2000 dot-com bubble peak

This chart is a repeat of the first, emphasizing the S&P 500 vs. M2SL. Atkinson reiterates that the market is at a historical point where previous bubbles (like the dot-com bubble) hit liquidity problems. He states that the market is currently driven by debt rather than available cash, suggesting 'extremely rare territory' and potential problems.

### 9. Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio (Buffett Indicator) (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** extreme overvaluation
**Key Levels:** 228.38% current ratio
**Historical Comparison:** dot-com bubble peak

The Buffett Indicator (Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio) is shown, indicating the total value of all publicly-traded stocks relative to GDP. The chart shows the ratio hitting extreme new highs, surpassing the dot-com bubble peak. Atkinson acknowledges that this indicator might not work as perfectly in a globalized, tech-driven market, but it still signals high valuations relative to the US economy and likely the world economy, driven by AI.

### 10. AMD (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (OBSERVING LARGE TRADES)
**Pattern:** strong uptrend, large trades
**Key Levels:** 200.00 resistance, 150.00 support

The AMD daily chart shows a strong uptrend with significant price increases. Atkinson highlights 'monster trades' in AMD, including the second-largest trade of all time after earnings. He suggests that these large transactions by 'serious money' could indicate profit-taking or continued bullishness, but emphasizes the need to watch for structural change rather than predicting market turns.

### 11. DRAM - Roundhill Memory ETF (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (OBSERVING LARGE TRADES)
**Pattern:** strong uptrend, large trades
**Key Levels:** 42.47 current price, 38.40 support, 37.20 support, 35.40 support

The DRAM - Roundhill Memory ETF daily chart shows a strong uptrend, with the largest transaction occurring recently. Atkinson notes that hardware stocks have gone up since this point, and while it doesn't guarantee continued bullishness, it's another example of significant activity in the semiconductor/hardware sector.

### 12. Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQ) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH (OVERHEATING CONCERN)
**Pattern:** strong uptrend, high fund flow
**Key Levels:** 400 current price
**Historical Comparison:** past periods of high fund flow

A chart showing the Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQ) with a rolling 21-day sum of daily fund flows. Atkinson points out that the fund flow is 'historically high' and hitting even higher points, indicating that the market is getting closer to a 'FOMO kind of point' where it might go sideways or experience a pullback. He notes that in the past, similar triggers have led to continued rallies before eventual corrections.

### 13. S&P 500 (RSI) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH (OVERBOUGHT CONCERN)
**Pattern:** overbought conditions
**Key Levels:** RSI above 75
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 forward performance since 2000 (n=11)

The S&P 500 chart with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below. The RSI has climbed above 75 for the first time in over 8 months, indicating extremely overbought conditions. A table below shows historical S&P 500 forward performance when the RSI was above 70, suggesting choppy performance in the short term.

### 14. WTI Crude Oil Futures Curve (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** price adjustment
**Historical Comparison:** Friday before the war (February '22)

A chart showing the WTI Crude Oil Futures Curve, comparing the latest settlement to the highest settled price on the curve before the war (February '22). Atkinson notes a 'massive adjustment' in WTI over the last 24 hours, with prices falling. He suggests that while oil prices are still elevated, they have pulled back based on news of potential peace talks, pushing futures barrels down from multi-year highs.

### 15. Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern (DJIA, S&P 500, NDX, Russell 2000) (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH (SEASONAL PATTERN)
**Pattern:** seasonal weakness
**Historical Comparison:** 1949-2009 average

A chart showing the Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern for major US indices (DJIA, S&P 500, NDX, Russell 2000) from 1949-2009. The pattern suggests that markets often run up into May and then drop, with a period of seasonal weakness from May to September. Atkinson notes that no signs of weakness have been seen yet, but the historical pattern suggests a potential pullback.

### 16. S&P 500 Price Returns vs Forward EPS Growth (Year-over-Year Change)

**Bias:** BEARISH (VALUATION CONCERN)
**Pattern:** divergence between price and earnings
**Key Levels:** +27% forward EPS growth

A chart showing S&P 500 Price Returns vs. Forward EPS Growth (Year-over-Year Change). Atkinson highlights that Wall Street analysts have gone 'mad' upgrading earnings, with a projected +27% forward EPS growth. He suggests that this is driven by AI CapEx and 'crazy earnings,' leading to a divergence where price returns are outpacing actual earnings growth, indicating potential overvaluation.

### 17. Bitcoin (Commercials' Net Position) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (OBSERVING ACCUMULATION)
**Pattern:** accumulation, potential basing
**Key Levels:** 79,500 resistance, 72,000 support
**Historical Comparison:** last three times in five years

A chart showing Bitcoin price alongside Commercials' Net Position. Atkinson notes that Bitcoin accumulation (net position selling) has been 'pretty high,' which is often symbolic of potential basing formations, as seen in the last three times over the past five years. He observes that Bitcoin is 'creeping up' but hasn't gone as 'crazy' as he thought it might after breaking through 79,500.

### 18. DXY (US Dollar Index Futures) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation within range
**Key Levels:** 98.960 key resistance, 97.550 key support

The DXY (US Dollar Index Futures) daily chart shows the dollar falling into a support line after news of potential conflict de-escalation. Atkinson notes that the dollar has not broken through this support, remaining trapped within its price range. He emphasizes not to short 'dull markets' and that the dollar's movement is currently neutral.

### 19. SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong uptrend, higher highs and lows
**Key Levels:** 733.83 current price

The SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) daily chart shows a strong upward trend, making higher highs and higher lows. Atkinson notes that the market went 'crazy' and that despite a shooting star or pin bar, the structure hasn't changed. The advance-decline line also continues to make higher highs, reinforcing the bullish bias for now.

### 20. US500 (US 500 Index) (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH (BUT OVEREXTENDED)
**Pattern:** decoupling from moving averages
**Key Levels:** 7431.2 high level, 7299.1 low level

The US500 (S&P 500 Index) 2-hour chart shows the market 'ramping above' its 50 exponential moving average, which has been a key dynamic support. Atkinson notes that the market is 'decoupling' from this moving average, indicating an overextended rally.

### 21. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH (BUT OVEREXTENDED)
**Pattern:** decoupling from moving averages
**Key Levels:** 28602.7 current price, 28223.2 support

The NAS100 (Nasdaq 100) 2-hour chart shows a similar pattern to the US500, with the index decoupling even further from its 50 exponential moving average. Atkinson describes this as a 'semiconductor hardware-driven mad run' and 'witnessing history' due to the unprecedented market capitalization and piling in of investors.

### 22. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (2026-05-06 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive gamma
**Key Levels:** 7070 call resistance, 6890 put support, 7365 spot price

A Net GEX (Gamma Exposure) chart for SPX shows the market is through 7300, entering positive gamma. Atkinson notes that 7400 is the next big gamma wall, indicating continued bullish momentum.

### 23. Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ (2026-05-06 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive gamma
**Key Levels:** 400 call resistance, 390 put support, 398.7 spot price

A Net GEX chart for QQQ shows the index going through 690, indicating positive gamma across the board, similar to the SPX. This suggests continued bullish momentum for the Nasdaq 100.

### 24. Net GEX All Expirations for TSLA (2026-05-06 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** struggling at call wall
**Key Levels:** 400 call resistance, 390 put support, 398.7 spot price

A Net GEX chart for TSLA shows the stock hitting the 400 call wall and struggling around that point. Atkinson notes this as an important level to watch.

### 25. Net GEX All Expirations for NVDA (2026-05-06 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** picking up after underperformance
**Key Levels:** 200 call resistance, 190 put support, 197.8 spot price

A Net GEX chart for NVDA shows the market starting to pick up after being 'so far behind.' Atkinson notes that NVDA has been 'really underperforming' compared to semiconductors, but is now gaining momentum.

### 26. Net GEX All Expirations for BTC (2026-05-06 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive gamma
**Key Levels:** 79,500 resistance

A Net GEX chart for Bitcoin shows it is still in positive gamma, although it's not moving as expected. Atkinson notes that it is still in positive gamma across the board.

### 27. MOVE (KAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** risk coming out of market
**Key Levels:** 74.0129 resistance, 70.6343 support

The MOVE Index (US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index) daily chart shows a drop over the last 24 hours, indicating some risk coming out of the market. Atkinson notes that the bond market is not panicking, with only a slight move up, suggesting a neutral stance on bond indicators.

### 28. US30Y (United States 30 Year Government Bonds Yield) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** failed breakout
**Key Levels:** 5.047% resistance, 5.005% support, 4.937% current yield

The US30Y (United States 30 Year Government Bonds Yield) daily chart shows yields coming off the 5% level, never closing above it. Atkinson emphasizes the 'fear of the unknown' as the market hates uncertainty. He notes that yields have not broken out, suggesting a neutral outlook for now.

### 29. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** drastic drop, holding support
**Key Levels:** 95.754 current price, 84.751 major support

The USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)) daily chart shows a 'pretty drastic' drop in oil prices, falling to its first support around 95. Atkinson notes that it managed to hold this level, but it's unclear what's next. He suggests that the market is 'stuck at the first support' for oil, indicating a neutral stance.

### 30. XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gap up, gap down, holding support
**Key Levels:** 57.00 current price, 59.81 resistance, 53.41 support

The XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) daily chart shows a gap up followed by a gap down, bringing it right on support. Atkinson notes that a lot of people are drawing Fibonacci retracements, with a 50% retracement bringing it back to where a big transaction occurred previously, suggesting a key level to watch.

### 31. XME (State Street SPDR Metals & Mining ETF) (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout from consolidation
**Key Levels:** 124.13 current price, 119.61 resistance

The XME (State Street SPDR Metals & Mining ETF) 4-hour chart shows metals having a good session, breaking through a consolidation pattern. Atkinson notes that the metals sector has been strong, reinforcing a bullish bias.

### 32. SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH (BUT OVEREXTENDED)
**Pattern:** ripping higher, overbought
**Key Levels:** 11472.75 current price, 9089.73 support

The SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) weekly chart shows the index 'just ripping,' with an RSI almost at 84, indicating extremely overbought conditions. Atkinson notes that it continues to make higher highs and higher lows, maintaining a bullish bias despite the overextension.

### 33. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong uptrend
**Key Levels:** 207.83 current price

The NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) weekly chart shows a strong upward trend. Atkinson highlights the difference between semiconductors and NVIDIA, noting that NVIDIA has been underperforming relative to the broader semiconductor index.

### 34. NVDA/SMH (NVIDIA Corporation / Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH (RELATIVE TO SMH)
**Pattern:** significant underperformance
**Key Levels:** 0.3780 current ratio

This chart shows NVIDIA's performance relative to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SMH). Atkinson points out 'significant underperformance' of NVIDIA since August of last year, with a 40% underperformance compared to semiconductors. This suggests that while the semiconductor sector is strong, NVIDIA itself has been lagging.

### 35. SOXS (Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH (SHORT SQUEEZE)
**Pattern:** high volume against trend
**Key Levels:** 9.81 resistance

The SOXS (Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF) daily chart shows 'volumes through the roof,' with everyone trying to go against the trend. Atkinson notes that Wall Street is 'very happy' squeezing out shorts, as people are going 'massive on shorts' against a strong market. This indicates a short squeeze and a strong underlying bullish trend in semiconductors.

### 36. KOSPI (KOSPI Composite Index) (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** wild moves to upside
**Key Levels:** 7403.71 current price, 6489.37 support

The KOSPI (KOSPI Composite Index) weekly chart shows 'wild moves towards the upside.' Atkinson highlights the strong upward momentum in the Korean market.

### 37. SNDK (SanDisk Corporation) (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH (BUT OVEREXTENDED)
**Pattern:** breakout, parabolic move
**Key Levels:** 1409.98 current price, 800 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** similar to Gold's previous rally

The SNDK (SanDisk Corporation) weekly chart shows a parabolic move, with Atkinson admitting he thought it was topping out earlier. He compares it to Gold's previous rally, where it looked solid but then went 'too quickly,' leading to a 'monster crunch.' This suggests a cautious bullishness due to the rapid ascent.

### 38. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector SPDR ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** straight up to resistance
**Key Levels:** 88.41 resistance, 87.82 support

The IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector SPDR ETF) daily chart shows the ETF going 'straight up' to resistance. Atkinson notes it wasn't a 'great session' but certainly not bad, as it's holding at resistance.

### 39. XJO (S&P/ASX 200 Index) (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** improving with metals
**Key Levels:** 8865.6 current price, 8394.8 support

The XJO (S&P/ASX 200 Index) weekly chart shows the Australian market performing better, especially with metals being up. Atkinson notes that 9000 is the next major level it needs to break and close above.

### 40. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout, dynamic resistance/support
**Key Levels:** 80867.40 current price, 94590.37 resistance, 86519.49 resistance, 79093.58 support

The BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) daily chart shows Bitcoin breaking up and tapping the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is often considered dynamic resistance. Atkinson notes that anything below the 200 SMA is bearish, and anything above is bullish (Paul Tudor Jones quote). Bitcoin has broken to the upside, making higher highs and higher lows, with the daily 20 and an anchored VWAP off the previous low at 79,500 acting as dynamic support. He concludes that Bitcoin looks 'pretty strong' on the charts.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in an unprecedented AI-driven regime, characterized by extreme valuations, high liquidity (fueled by debt), and a focus on semiconductor and hardware stocks. This period is compared to the dot-com bubble due to rapid valuation increases and potential overheating. Intermarket analysis suggests that while some risk is coming out of bonds, and gold/silver are showing improvements (hedging), the overall market is being driven by FOMO and short squeezes, with Wall Street actively upgrading earnings. The market is currently in a positive gamma regime, indicating continued upward momentum, but also potential for sharp pullbacks if triggers occur.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- The market is celebrating AI valuations while ignoring the structure underneath, leading to an 'AI bubble.'
- Goldman Sachs warns the AI semiconductor boom is 'unprecedented and unsustainable.'
- The market is at a point where purchasing power for stocks is dwindling, driven by debt rather than available cash, similar to the 2000 dot-com bubble.
- The Buffett Indicator (Market Cap to GDP) is hitting extreme new highs, signaling overvaluation.
- The Nasdaq 100 fund flow is historically high, suggesting a 'FOMO kind of point' and potential for sideways movement or a pullback.
- The S&P 500 RSI is above 75 for the first time in over 8 months, indicating overbought conditions.
- Wall Street is 'all too happy' to upgrade earnings and squeeze shorts in the semiconductor sector.
- Do not try to short 'dull markets' without structural change.
- The market is using any excuse to go 'all in,' causing positive gamma and driving prices higher.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SPY, M2SL, SPX, GOLD, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, NVDA, GOOGL, META, JPM, BRK-B, LLY, ABBV, JNJ, XOM, COST, WMT, NFLX, GE, VZ, T, TJX, K, Anthropic, Google Cloud, OpenAI, QCOM, SNDK, MSTR, LRCX, ASML, CTSH, AMAT, ADI, ADBE, CSGP, REGN, AMD, WBD, MRVL, INTC, STX, MU, WDC, DRAM, DXY, US30Y, USOIL, XLE, XME, SOX, SOXS, KOSPI, IGV, XJO, BTCUSDT, MOVE

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-05-09 23:03:37*