# We DON’T Usually See This AT THE TOP…
**Date:** 2026-05-13  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_0V_a5XubBk)

## Main Thesis
The market is showing signs of extreme overbought conditions, particularly in semiconductors and tech, with high volatility and unusual price action suggesting a potential late-stage market cycle or consolidation, while inflation remains a key concern pushing bond yields and commodities higher.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** volatile session, 6% down and up
**Key Levels:** 561.25 current price, 578.58 high, 542.70 low

SMH experienced a 6% down and up swing in a single session, leading to massive volumes in both bullish and bearish positions. This volatility is unusual after a strong rally, suggesting Wall Street might be getting involved in the opposite direction.

### 2. NAS100 (Nasdaq 100 Cash CFD) (2h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** price repeatedly touching 50 EMA after a strong uptrend
**Key Levels:** 29,143.1 current price, 50 exponential moving average

The Nasdaq is seeing its 50 exponential moving average reached once again, following a slightly shocking CPI result. This indicates inflation is back, pushing bond yields up, and suggests increased market activity for both traders and investors across stocks, commodities, and crypto.

### 3. US30Y (United States 30 Year Government Bonds Yield) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout above previous highs
**Key Levels:** 5.033% high, 5.025% current yield, 4.900% previous resistance

The 30-year bond yield has broken above 5.033%, reaching a new high. This is linked to rising inflation and suggests that some market participants were not anticipating the uptick in copper, energy, and other markets that had already been signaling inflation.

### 4. KOSPI (South Korean Index) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** epic rally over 12-18 months, 7% daily swing
**Key Levels:** 7,784.46 high, 7,421.36 low

The KOSPI has experienced an 'epic rally' over the last 12-18 months, reaching historic all-time highs. A recent 7% drop and subsequent recovery within a single day suggests a strong 'buy the dip' reflex, but also indicates high volatility in the semiconductor and hardware sectors.

### 5. SOXS (Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** massive volume on a down day
**Key Levels:** 8.95 current price
**Historical Comparison:** highest volume in a while, close to top 10 average

SOXS, a degrading ETF, saw massive volume on a down day, indicating significant short interest. While not an all-time record, it's close to the top 10 average, suggesting extreme volatility and potential for a pullback or consolidation after a strong bullish run in semiconductors.

### 6. Semiconductor Volatility (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** 6% move on the session, bought back up
**Key Levels:** 561.22 high, 543.30 low, 500.00 support

Semiconductor volatility is back, with a 6% move on the session that was bought back up by day's end. This suggests that the 'easiest money' has been made and markets are becoming overbought, similar to what Bollinger Bands on SPX and Nasdaq are indicating.

### 7. Nasdaq 100 (NDX) vs. 50-day average (daily (since 1995))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** stretched above 50-day average
**Key Levels:** 14.6% above 50-day average (today), 10% deviation line
**Historical Comparison:** similar to dot-com peak (+23.7%) and 2009 rebound (+16.8%)

The Nasdaq 100 is currently 14.6% above its 50-day moving average, a stretch only seen during the dot-com peak and the 2009 rebound. This suggests the market is extremely overbought and may be due for a correction or consolidation.

### 8. S&P (S&P 500) vs. Gamma Exposure (daily (since 2019))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** gamma exposure moving from oversold to overbought
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 2021 meme bubble top and market top

Gamma exposure, according to Goldman Sachs, has moved from super oversold in March to super overbought. This pattern has historically been seen during the 2021 meme bubble top and market tops, indicating that retail traders are a huge component of the market and Wall Street is pushing psychological limits with FOMO and fear.

### 9. Copper (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** new weekly breakout, continued rally
**Key Levels:** 6.35546 current price, new weekly close high May 2026, October 2020 breakout, May 2024 breakout

Copper has broken out to a new weekly high, continuing its rally. This suggests strong liquidity and growth in the markets, with countries stockpiling precious metals, particularly those vital for innovation like copper. This move was already underway before the latest inflation numbers were released.

### 10. Silver (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout above 1st resistance, sell-off bought back up
**Key Levels:** 83.3216 current price, 80.7652 1st resistance, 76.4942 breakout level, 93.7648 2nd resistance

Silver has broken out above its first resistance level and continues to be strong, even with a recent sell-off being bought back up. This indicates that different sectors are moving at different times, with metals picking up alongside energy.

### 11. SPX (S&P 500) & NDX (Nasdaq 100) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** both broke out of Bollinger Bands
**Key Levels:** 7,398.92 SPX, 29,234.99 NDX

Both the S&P and Nasdaq broke out of their Bollinger Bands over the last week. While the Nasdaq does this occasionally, both doing it simultaneously is unusual and suggests extreme overbought conditions, with markets moving too quickly and too far from their moving averages.

### 12. SPY / QQQ (Both Closed Outside Weekly Bollingers) (weekly (since 1999))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** both SPY and QQQ closing outside weekly Bollinger Bands
**Historical Comparison:** rare occurrences, often followed by drawdowns

When both SPY and QQQ close outside their weekly Bollinger Bands, it's a rare event. While not always leading to a crash, historical data shows average maximum drawdowns of -0.2% (1 week), -0.6% (1 month), -2.0% (3 months), and -4.4% (6 months), suggesting a slowdown is likely.

### 13. Nasdaq 100 QQQ: Above Upper Bollinger Band With RSI Over 80 (since 1999 (n=12))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** QQQ above upper Bollinger Band with RSI over 80
**Historical Comparison:** 12 previous occurrences since 1999

When the Nasdaq 100 QQQ is above its upper Bollinger Band with an RSI over 80, it's a very important point. Historically, this has led to a slowdown, with only 18% of the time being bullish over a 40-day change, and an average loss of 0.4%.

### 14. S&P 500 Adjusted Forward P/E Ratio & Forward Profit Margins (since 2000)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rising profit margins
**Key Levels:** 15.80% forward profit margins

The market is up due to strong earnings and rising forward profit margins. If earnings top out, it would be a very bad sign for a late-stage market cycle. This trend has been observed since the Fed's rate cuts last September, indicating a structural shift.

### 15. Nasdaq 100 Trust (QQQ) 21-day Fund Flow (daily (since May 2022))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rolling 21-day sum of daily fund flows reaching peaks
**Historical Comparison:** similar to previous market peaks

The rolling 21-day sum of daily fund flows in QQQ is reaching potential peaks, similar to previous instances where the market saw significant corrections. This, combined with other indicators, suggests the Nasdaq could be nearing a top.

### 16. Bitcoin ETF Flow (US$m) (daily (since April 2026))

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive flow into IBIT ETF

Bitcoin has seen positive flows into its ETF (IBIT), with about $3.11 billion in positive flow over the last 21 days. This is the first sign of actual flows coming into the market rather than going out, which is a positive sign for Bitcoin.

### 17. DX1! (Dollar Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 98.960 key resistance, 97.550 key support, 98.185 current price

The US Dollar Index Futures are currently in the middle of their range, with no significant movement to report. It's one of the biggest hedges in the world, but currently shows no clear directional bias.

### 18. SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** market rebound off important levels
**Key Levels:** 738.18 current price, 716.86 previous close

The S&P 500 saw its advance-decline line slightly down, but the market rebounded off important levels. The key is whether it continues to hold around the 2-hour 50 exponential moving average and make higher highs and higher lows.

### 19. US500 (US 500 Index) (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 7,409.6 current price, 7,466.0 options high level today, 7,335.1 options low level today

The US500 is continuing to make a series of higher highs and higher lows, holding around the 2-hour 50 exponential moving average. Options high and low levels are noted, and the market closed around 7400, which is a major call wall.

### 20. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (2026-05-12 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive GEX profile, call wall at 7500
**Key Levels:** 7400 spot price, 7500 call resistance, 6500 put support

The SPX is currently at a major call wall around 7400. If it breaks above this, 7500 becomes the next gamma wall, suggesting potential for further upward movement due to positive gamma exposure.

### 21. Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ (2026-05-12 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** mixed GEX profile, put wall at 700
**Key Levels:** 700 put wall, 720 spot price

For QQQ, the GEX profile is more mixed. A put wall is noted at 700. If this level is broken, it could signal negative gamma once again, which would be the first bearish sign from the options side in a while.

### 22. Net GEX All Expirations for NVDA (2026-05-12 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive gamma, moving towards 225 call wall
**Key Levels:** 220 spot price, 225 call resistance

NVIDIA is showing strong positive gamma, moving towards the 225 call wall. It appears to be moving in anticipation of earnings, with new news announcements coming out. This stock has been a rotation play, totally behind other semiconductors but now catching up.

### 23. Net GEX All Expirations for TSLA (2026-05-12 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation around 450 call wall
**Key Levels:** 450 call wall, 425 spot price

Tesla is consolidating around the 450 call wall. It's taking a breather after hitting this important zone. The market will watch how it develops from here.

### 24. MOVE (ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** volatility index
**Key Levels:** 71.6779 current price, 77.8462 resistance

The MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility, is currently not showing significant movement, suggesting corporate debt is not yet a major concern.

### 25. US30Y (United States 30 Year Government Bonds Yield) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** testing previous highs
**Key Levels:** 5.026% current yield, 5.047% previous high
**Historical Comparison:** highest in 20 years

The 30-year US Government Bond Yield is testing previous highs around 5.047%. A close above 5.1% would be the highest in over 20 years, indicating significant upward pressure on yields due to inflation concerns. This is a critical level to watch.

### 26. US02Y (US Government Bonds 2 Year Yield) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** testing 4% resistance
**Key Levels:** 3.990% current yield, 4.013% resistance

The 2-year US Government Bond Yield is potentially breaking through 4%. While this is an improvement in charts, the market is not yet in a 'fear of the unknown' state, which is what typically causes significant freaked-out reactions.

### 27. XLE (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** island reversal off 61.8% Fibonacci
**Key Levels:** 57.57 current price, 56.44 support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement

Energy stocks (XLE) performed an island reversal off the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which is an encouraging sign. This suggests that oil might be finding a base.

### 28. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** found a base and improved
**Key Levels:** 100.892 current price, 97.864 support, 113.040 resistance

USOIL found a base and showed improvement, indicating a potential bottom. This aligns with the broader theme of commodities picking up due to inflation and global stockpiling.

### 29. COPPER (CFDs on Copper) (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** bull flag breakout
**Key Levels:** 6.6103 current price, 6.0892 support

Copper has seen an 'absolutely flew' rally, with a bull flag pattern already completed by some metrics. This rapid repricing is a beautiful technical move, and while nothing is certain, the price action suggests continued higher highs and higher lows.

### 30. GOLD (Gold (XAUUSD)) (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound after double bottom
**Key Levels:** 4,693.23 current price, 4,501.79 double bottom support, 4,750.00 resistance, 4,813.86 next resistance

Gold is fairly range-bound after completing a double bottom pattern. The market is watching 4750 closely; a break above this could stretch Gold higher, especially if it picks up flows. Gold is currently lagging behind Silver.

### 31. SILVER (CFDs on Silver (US$ / OZ)) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** smashed into 86 after dropping
**Key Levels:** 86.3260 current price, 80.7652 1st resistance, 76.4942 breakout level, 93.7648 2nd resistance

Silver smashed straight into 86 after dropping, showing strong resilience. On the 2-hour chart, it dropped but came back to the 2-hour 20 EMA, making higher highs. The 2-hour 20 EMA will be a key level to watch for continued trend holding.

### 32. XME (SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong recovery after dropping
**Key Levels:** 123.60 current price

XME (Metals & Mining ETF) has shown a strong recovery after dropping, with Gold Miner Juniors and other related assets picking up. The charts are proving resilient for metals and energy at this stage.

### 33. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding above previous highs
**Key Levels:** 89.44 current price, 88.41 support, 93.96 resistance

IGV (Software ETF) is still holding above its previous highs, which is a good sign. This suggests continued strength in the software sector.

### 34. SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** first sign of volatility after strong rally
**Key Levels:** 11,717.28 current price, 81.43 RSI

The SOX index is showing the first sign of volatility after a strong rally, with a wild RSI and Bollinger Bands. A small island reversal was observed, and now a couple more signs of volatility are emerging, suggesting a potential shift.

### 35. KOSPI (KOSPI Composite Index) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** showing volatility after rally
**Key Levels:** 7,736.36 current price, 7,932.66 high

The KOSPI, representing the hardware side of the market, is showing volatility after its recent rally, reinforcing the idea of increased market uncertainty in the semiconductor sector.

### 36. DRAM (Roundhill Memory ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** 13-14% drop from top, volatile
**Key Levels:** 51.30 current price, 56.22 high

DRAM, a new hardware-focused ETF, dropped 13-14% from its top very quickly, indicating high volatility. This rapid repricing suggests that Wall Street is actively involved and creating significant swings.

### 37. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** super behind other semiconductors, moving in anticipation of earnings
**Key Levels:** 220.78 current price, 223.80 resistance

NVIDIA is currently super behind other semiconductors but is moving in anticipation of a big earnings season. It's showing resilience and is certainly a stock to watch for potential rotation.

### 38. XLF (State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF) / SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** financials dropping drastically versus SPY
**Key Levels:** 0.0715 support, 0.0699 low

Financials (XLF) have been dropping drastically versus the S&P (SPY), falling through previous lows. This suggests underlying weakness in the debt markets and indicates a late-stage market cycle, a trend observed for about a year and a half.

### 39. XJO (S&P/ASX 200 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Pattern:** dropped after budget announcement, testing support
**Key Levels:** 8,644.7 current price, 8,394.8 support, 8,800.0 resistance

The Australian market (XJO) dropped after the budget announcement, reaching 8600 support. While metals have done okay, other areas are not performing well. A higher high has not yet been formed, indicating continued weakness.

### 40. HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** no breakout past 26504
**Key Levels:** 26,166 current price, 25,646 support, 26,504 resistance

The Chinese market (Hang Seng Index Futures) has not broken out past the 26504 resistance level, remaining range-bound.

### 41. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Bollinger still above, 2h 50 EMA still holding
**Key Levels:** 29,143.6 current price

The Nasdaq's Bollinger Band is still above, and the 2-hour 50 exponential moving average is still holding, indicating the upward trend is intact. However, the market is getting more dangerous, requiring careful risk management.

### 42. ETHUSDT (Ethereum / TetherUS) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding retail steal zone
**Key Levels:** 2,293.77 current price, 2,395.77 retail steal zone

Ethereum is holding the 'retail steal' zone and has not broken 2450. It's currently consolidating within this range.

### 43. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** held anchored VWAP, testing daily 200 MA
**Key Levels:** 81,012.94 current price, 79,093.58 support, 82,734.34 resistance, 89,139.01 next resistance

Bitcoin held the anchored VWAP level and is now testing the daily 200 moving average. A break above the daily 200 would be a significant bullish signal, as 'nothing good happens underneath' it, according to Paul Tudor Jones.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a late-stage market cycle, characterized by high volatility, rising inflation, and rotation from tech/semiconductors into defensive sectors and commodities. Earnings are a key driver, and if they top out, it could signal a significant market top. The increasing involvement of retail traders (20-30% of market volume) is also noted as a factor Wall Street exploits psychologically.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch for a lower high and lower low on the Nasdaq to confirm a bearish shift.
- Monitor 30-year US bond yields for a close above 5.1%, which would be a 20-year high.
- Observe 4750 on Gold; a break above could signal further upward movement.
- Watch 700 on QQQ for a break below, which could signal negative gamma and a bearish shift.
- Pay attention to earnings; if they top out, it could signal a significant market top.
- Risk management is crucial due to increased volatility and overbought conditions.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SMH, NAS100, US30Y, KOSPI, SOXS, SPX, NDX, Copper, Silver, SPY, QQQ, XLE, USOIL, Gold, XME, IGV, SOX, DRAM, NVDA, XLF, XJO, HSI1!, ETHUSDT, BTCUSDT, MOVE, US02Y, TSLA

---
*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-05-21 20:15:17*