# Has Wall Street Shown Their Hand?
**Date:** 2026-05-14  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p1l7H-1FxII)

## Main Thesis
The market is showing signs of underlying weakness and overextension, particularly in breadth and certain economic indicators, despite major tech and semiconductors holding up the S&P 500. This suggests a potential for increased volatility and a mean reversion, especially given historical patterns around new Fed chairs and current high gamma exposure.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPX (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rally with declining breadth
**Key Levels:** 7444.26 current price, 1807.16 support
**Historical Comparison:** rally since March

The S&P 500 is rallying, but the number of advancing stocks has dropped steeply since March. Even with a new all-time high, 331 stocks were declining in the S&P 500 on the last session. This indicates underlying weakness despite the headline index performance.

### 2. RSPD/RSPS (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** potential breakdown
**Key Levels:** 1.75 support

This chart, representing equal-weighted discretionary versus staples, shows a potential breakdown below a very important level (1.75). This, coupled with heavy inflation and a hot PPI number, suggests weakness in the American consumer.

### 3. SPX (2HR)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** dip buying
**Key Levels:** 7466.4 current price

The S&P 500 2-hour 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has been a strong indicator throughout the rally. Every time the market has made higher highs and retested the 50 EMA, it has been bought up. This level is currently intact, but its breach would signal real weakness.

### 4. SPX (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** divergence with declining breadth
**Key Levels:** 7444.26 current price, 1807.16 support

The S&P 500 is showing signs of an extended market. While semiconductors have driven the rally, participation is now declining. The Advance/Decline line may make a lower low, which would be a significant warning sign if it happens in the next 24 hours.

### 5. S&P 500 / NYSE New Highs - New Lows (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** divergence
**Key Levels:** 7400-7500 S&P 500, 0.23 New Highs - New Lows

The S&P 500 is making new highs, but the NYSE New Highs - New Lows indicator is showing a red session, meaning more lows than highs. While one session isn't a concern, a couple in a row indicates a meaningful decrease in underlying strength, suggesting Wall Street isn't showing the normal retail investor the full picture.

### 6. PPI % Change MoM (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** inflationary spike
**Key Levels:** 1.4% increase in April
**Historical Comparison:** biggest jump since 2022

The Producer Price Index (PPI) came in super hot, with a 1.4% month-on-month increase, the biggest jump since 2022 during the last inflation crisis. This, coupled with the CPI read, shows ingrained inflation and a K-shaped economy where some (AI-related) are doing well, while others struggle.

### 7. Global Money Supply (yearly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** sharp increase
**Key Levels:** 121.9T current, +17.1T increase

Global money supply is now at $121.9 trillion, an increase of $17.1 trillion in about a year and a half. This explains why markets are running and metals are increasing, despite underlying economic concerns. As long as this doesn't decline, liquidity is not an issue.

### 8. S&P 500 Performance Following a New Fed Chair (trading days (1-200))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** cyclical weakness after new Fed chair
**Key Levels:** 33rd Trading Day (average peak), 76th Trading Day (average bottom)
**Historical Comparison:** 12 past instances since 1930

Historically, after a new Fed Chair is appointed, the S&P 500 often sees weakness in the first few months, with an average peak around the 33rd trading day and a bottom around the 76th trading day. Given the recent Fed Chair vote, this historical pattern suggests potential weakness on the horizon, aligning with mid-term election year tendencies.

### 9. SPX / NDX (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** overbought, outside Bollinger Bands
**Key Levels:** 7398.92 SPX, 29234.99 NDX

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are trading outside their weekly Bollinger Bands, a rare and historically overbought condition. This suggests a potential mean reversion back to the 20-moving average, which would imply a significant drop from current levels. This market is historic, with an unprecedented run in semiconductors.

### 10. SPY / QQQ (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** overbought, outside Bollinger Bands
**Key Levels:** 1.03 standard deviations outside Bollinger Bands
**Historical Comparison:** past instances over almost a decade

When both SPY and QQQ close outside their weekly Bollinger Bands by 1.03 standard deviations, historical data shows a tendency for declines over the next month or so. This aligns with the Fed Chair cycle and suggests a need for careful risk management due to high retail involvement and FOMO.

### 11. S&P / Gamma Exposure ($Bn) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Meme Bubble Top / Market Top similarities
**Historical Comparison:** 2021 Meme Bubble Top

Gamma exposure is spiking, showing similarities to the 2021 Meme Bubble Top. This indicates high retail involvement and FOMO in the market. While markets can push higher even after these reads, it often leads to a pause or a significant top, emphasizing the need for risk management.

### 12. COPPER (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** new weekly breakout
**Key Levels:** 6.35546 current price, May 2024 breakout, October 2020 breakout

Copper is on the move again with a new weekly breakout, showing significant growth. This, along with other metals, indicates that inflation and growth seem to be back, which is a cautionary tale for the broader market.

### 13. $BTC DAILY (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** retesting 20-moving average
**Key Levels:** 79647.77 current price, 79500 resistance, 200-moving average

Bitcoin broke above 79,500 (a key resistance) and reached the daily 200-moving average. It has since moved back to retest the 20-moving average. We've seen two bounces off this level, and a third would be important. Despite market woes, some inflows into Bitcoin ETFs suggest buying interest.

### 14. Bitcoin ETF Flow ($M) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** inflows

Some inflows into IBIT and other Bitcoin ETFs have been observed over the last 21 days. This suggests some encouragement for Bitcoin despite broader market conditions, raising the question of whether a significant bid is forming.

### 15. SILJ - ETFMNG Prime Junior Silver Miners ETF (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** large trades near lows
**Key Levels:** 35.80 resistance, 30.00 support

Large trades have been observed in Silver Miners ETFs (SILJ), particularly the second and third largest trades occurring closer to the lows. This 'follow the flow' approach suggests that despite narratives, price action and flow are improving in silver, indicating potential rallies.

### 16. US Dollar Index Futures (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** trapped in range
**Key Levels:** 100.250 resistance, 96.695 support, 98.395 current price

The US Dollar Index has been trapped between 100.250 and 96.695 for almost a year, doing nothing. It hasn't broken high or low, indicating a lack of clear direction.

### 17. SPX (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** weakness in advance/decline line
**Key Levels:** 7444.26 current price, 6786.03 previous weakness level
**Historical Comparison:** March 2026 weakness

The Advance/Decline line for the S&P 500 is showing weakness, similar to what was seen in March. This is a key indicator to monitor, as previous weakness led to multiple technical triggers and risk contemplation in the market. Currently, only one such day of weakness has been observed.

### 18. US500 (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 7459.1 current price, 7500 resistance, 7353.9 options low level

The US500 continues to make a series of higher highs and higher lows, closing in on 7500. The 50 EMA on the 2-hour chart continues to hold up, pushing a positive gamma storyline. This indicates strong upward momentum.

### 19. NASDAQ (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** increased CTA positioning

CTA positioning in the Nasdaq has seen a pretty big increase. While high, it's not at extreme levels seen in the past. One read by itself isn't enough to call an absolute extreme, but it's a factor to watch.

### 20. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** positive gamma
**Key Levels:** 7500 call resistance, 7445 spot price, 6500 put support

The S&P 500 gamma story shows 7500 as the next call wall, acting as a magnet. The market is currently in positive gamma, meaning hedgers may need to hedge, which can dampen volatility. No real sign of weakness yet, other than the decreasing breadth.

### 21. GOLD / Q-CTA position (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** divergence
**Historical Comparison:** before major breakouts

Gold has horrible CTA participation, with CTA positioning in the dirt. While gold price has stabilized, CTAs are not buying it. Historically, low CTA positioning has often preceded major breakouts when price action starts to improve and breaks key levels, leading CTAs to purchase in.

### 22. MOVE - ICE BofAML US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** doing nothing
**Key Levels:** 77.8787 resistance, 70.2360 support

The MOVE index (bond market volatility) is doing nothing, trapped between 77.8787 and 70.2360. This suggests a lack of significant concern or movement in the bond market.

### 23. HYG - iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** no higher high
**Key Levels:** 80.98 resistance

High Yield Junk bonds (HYG) are doing nothing and have not made a higher high. This indicates a divergence between the bond market and stock market exuberance, suggesting underlying weakness.

### 24. RSPD/RSPS (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** discretionary vs staples divergence
**Key Levels:** 1.75 support

The American consumer (equal-weighted discretionary vs. staples) is getting pummeled, pushing down to demand lines. This indicator looks weak across all versions, showing that while the stock market improves, the economy is not. This highlights that AI is driving the market, creating a 'hamster wheel' effect of big spend and IPOs.

### 25. XLE - State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** continued improvement
**Key Levels:** 57.63 current price, 58.18 resistance, 56.00 support

Energy stocks (XLE) continue to improve, showing that inflation and yields are starting to tick up. This is a factor to watch closely.

### 26. US10Y - US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptick in yields
**Key Levels:** 4.463% current price, 4.500% resistance

US 10-year government bond yields are ticking up, currently at 4.463%. This is a key indicator to watch, especially in conjunction with the 30-year yield.

### 27. US30Y - United States 30 Year Government Bonds Yield (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptick in yields
**Key Levels:** 5.028% current price, 5.005% support

US 30-year government bond yields are trading at 5.028%. If yields continue to rise into the 'fear of the unknown,' it can scare markets and trigger a 'risk-off' sentiment. Watching yields is crucial.

### 28. UKOIL - Brent Crude (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 106.11 current price, 97.96 support

UK Oil (Brent Crude) continues to hold with a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating sustained upward momentum.

### 29. NDX (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** flying
**Key Levels:** 29366.94 current price

The Nasdaq 100 is flying, making a series of higher highs and higher lows, showing incredible strength.

### 30. NDX (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** steep upward trend
**Key Levels:** 29366.64 current price, 28442.44 support

The Nasdaq 100 2-hour 20-moving average is holding up a steep upward trend, making new higher highs. This is an incredible run.

### 31. SOXS - Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X ETF (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** declining
**Key Levels:** 8.35 current price

SOXS, the inverse semiconductor ETF, is declining, reflecting the strong performance of semiconductors.

### 32. SMH - VanEck Semiconductor ETF (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** high volatility
**Key Levels:** 572.46 current price, 540.78 previous volatility point

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) continues to see pretty big volume and volatility. When volatility enters the chart, it means someone has made a decision. We need to pay more attention, as this could signal a shift.

### 33. SMH (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding trend
**Key Levels:** 574.75 current price, 551.24 support

The 2-hour 50 EMA for SMH is still holding up in trend. We've seen the first signs of volatility, but the trend remains intact.

### 34. DRAM - Roundhill Memory ETF (2h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** crazy market
**Key Levels:** 54.54 support

DRAM (Roundhill Memory ETF) is a crazy market, with two times leveraged ETFs now available. Someone is likely to get hurt here, as it's part of the hardware sector experiencing an extreme build-up.

### 35. KOSPI - KOSPI Composite Index (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** very strong
**Key Levels:** 7869.77 current price, 7110.72 support

The KOSPI Composite Index continues to be very strong, showing significant upward movement.

### 36. KOSPI (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** extreme build-up
**Key Levels:** 7871.72 current price, 7200 support

The KOSPI is part of the hardware stage and is experiencing an extreme build-up. Someone is likely to be left with expensive RAM that they'll have to offset on their taxes due to losses.

### 37. GOLD (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding within two ranges
**Key Levels:** 4678.36 current price, 4501.79 support, 4820.01 resistance

Gold is a little weaker, currently holding within two ranges. We're watching yields very closely for gold, as it hates short-term yield increases. Hoping to see it break past 4750-4760 in the future.

### 38. GOLD (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding within two ranges
**Key Levels:** 4677.77 current price, 4501.79 support, 4759.25 resistance

Gold is holding within two ranges, with a potential low-steal rally. It has stabilized recently, and 4500 is a key support. We like the idea of a double bottom, but it's struggling at the POC level. Gold is a little weaker, and we're watching yields closely, as short-term yield increases are not good for precious metals.

### 39. SILVER (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** epic breakout
**Key Levels:** 86.4690 current price, 88.5907 minor resistance, 93.9001 major resistance

Silver has had an epic breakout this week, hitting minor resistance around 88.5907. It's not quite at 94 yet, but silver is performing well as a metal that is used in industry.

### 40. COPPER (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** flag formation / extension
**Key Levels:** 6.5659 current price, 6.3910 support

Copper just completed what some consider a flag formation, or an extension. This suggests a breather is being taken after a big week. Other metals are also breaking up, leading to certain sectors like XME holding up.

### 41. XME - State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** every sell bought up
**Key Levels:** 123.34 current price, 127.17 resistance

The Metals & Mining sector (XME) is holding up, with every sell seemingly being bought up by AI or other entities. This is shown by the nice wicks coming through each time it drops, indicating underlying buying pressure.

### 42. HSIN - Hang Seng Index Futures (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** attempted breakout, then decline
**Key Levels:** 26435 current price, 26521 resistance

Chinese markets (HSIN) are increasing, with the Hang Seng Index trying to break out past 26521. However, it declined, failing to hold a major daily candle close above this level. A little encouraging for Chinese markets, but no confirmed breakout yet.

### 43. NAS100 (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 29471.0 current price, 28565.8 support

The Nasdaq 100 continues to make a series of higher highs and higher lows, showing strong upward momentum.

### 44. BTCUSDT (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** trapped between moving averages
**Key Levels:** 79181.87 current price, 77840.38 support, 84000 resistance (200MA)

Bitcoin is trapped between the daily 20-moving average (dynamic pressure) and the daily 200-moving average (resistance). Nothing good happens below the 200-moving average, but a break above could signal more serious business. We'd like to see it find a bid.

### 45. ETHUSDT (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** pullback in time (PIT) / coil
**Key Levels:** 2247.27 current price, 2191.57 support, 2450 resistance

Ethereum is doing absolutely nothing, putting pressure on the low level of 2200. We're watching to see if it can break 2450. If it does, it could signal that this 'pullback in time' or 'coil' is preparing for a relatively big breakout. However, we haven't seen that in altcoins yet, only Bitcoin has been at the forefront.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The video highlights a 'K-shaped economy' where AI and big tech are thriving, while other sectors and the American consumer are struggling due to ingrained inflation. There's a comparison to the 2021 Meme Bubble Top, indicating high retail involvement and FOMO. The bond market (MOVE index, HYG) shows divergence from stock market exuberance, suggesting underlying weakness. Yields are ticking up, which could scare markets into a 'risk-off' environment. Overall, the market is in a historically overbought state, with signs of volatility emerging, but the strong upward trend in semiconductors and tech continues.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch for a lower low in the Advance/Decline line as a significant warning sign for the S&P 500.
- Be cautious with risk management due to high gamma exposure and retail involvement, similar to the 2021 Meme Bubble Top.
- Monitor US 30-year government bond yields closely, as a continued rise could trigger a 'risk-off' sentiment.
- Follow the flow and price action in metals like silver and copper, as they show signs of inflation and growth.
- For Bitcoin, watch for a sustained bid above the daily 200-moving average as a signal for more serious business.
- For Ethereum, look for a breakout above 2450 as a sign that its 'pullback in time' is leading to a big breakout.
- Do not preemptively go against strong trends until volatility clearly signals a shift.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SPX, RSPD/RSPS, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, TSLA, HD, WMT, KO, NVDA, AVGO, MU, AMD, INTC, LRCX, GOOGL, META, JPM, V, BRK-B, WFC, LLY, JNJ, PFE, UNH, XOM, CVX, SPY, QQQ, COPPER, BTCUSDT, SILJ, US Dollar Index Futures, US500, NASDAQ, GOLD, MOVE, HYG, XLE, US10Y, US30Y, UKOIL, NDX, SOXS, SMH, DRAM, KOSPI, ETHUSDT, HSIN

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-05-21 20:13:20*