# Are Markets Starting To Freak Out?
**Date:** 2026-05-17  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkqA8LrXCgw)

## Main Thesis
The market is showing signs of extreme overextension, reminiscent of the dot-com bubble, with yields rising alongside growth stocks, and internal weakness appearing in market breadth and debt metrics, suggesting a potential 'fear of the unknown' phase.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. US30Y (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** breakout above 20-year highs
**Key Levels:** 5.026% (previous resistance), 5.122% (current price)
**Historical Comparison:** not seen in 20 years

The US 30-year bond yield has broken out above 5.1%, a level not seen in 20 years. This significant move is highlighted as a serious development in the market.

### 2. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** upward trend, signs of cracking
**Key Levels:** 7408.49 (current price), 6400 (support)
**Historical Comparison:** clusters of internal weakness seen before

The S&P 500 has moved to all-time highs but is starting to show signs of cracking, with internal weakness appearing. The chart shows a strong upward trend with recent red candles indicating a potential pullback. Clusters of weakness have been observed before.

### 3. NVDA (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** strong upward trend, potential 'sell the fact' after earnings
**Key Levels:** 225.32 (current price), 148.80 (support)

Nvidia is in focus for earnings, having seen a 'buy the rumor' rally. The chart shows a significant upward move, with a large green candle indicating strong buying. The question is whether it will be a 'sell the fact' event after earnings.

### 4. Market Map (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** semiconductors falling

The market map shows a broad sell-off on Friday, with semiconductors (NVDA, MU, INTC, TXN, AMD, ADI, AVGO) falling the most across the board. This indicates internal weakness despite overall market highs.

### 5. NDX (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** closed outside Bollinger Band for 5 consecutive weeks
**Key Levels:** 29,125.20 (current price)
**Historical Comparison:** last seen in 1999 before dot-com bust

The Nasdaq 100 has closed outside its Bollinger Band for 5 consecutive weeks, a rare event last seen in 1999 just before the dot-com bust. This is highlighted as a significant overbought signal.

### 6. Nasdaq Annual Return vs. 10Y UST Yield Change (annual)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** yields and Nasdaq both rising
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 1999, 2004-2006, 1996

This scatter plot shows years when both Nasdaq and 10Y Treasury yields rose. 2026 YTD is currently in a rare quadrant where both yields and growth stocks are moving up. This pattern has been observed in periods like 1999 (dot-com boom/bust) and 2004-2006 (big boom then bust), raising concerns about market cycle stage (early, mid, or late cycle).

### 7. Nasdaq 100: 5-Week Streak Above Upper Bollinger Band (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** 5-week streak above upper Bollinger Band
**Historical Comparison:** rare event, forward performance since 1986 (n=7)

A chart showing the Nasdaq 100's 5-week streak above the upper Bollinger Band. Historically, this doesn't always lead to an immediate market downturn for Nasdaq alone, but when combined with the S&P 500 also being extended, it signals systematic over-leverage.

### 8. SPY/QQQ Both Closed Outside Weekly Bollingers (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** both SPY and QQQ closed outside weekly Bollingers

When both the S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) close outside their weekly Bollinger Bands, it indicates a systematic, usually upper-leverage type of situation. This is a more concerning signal than just one index being extended.

### 9. % of US Federal Debt Maturing in 1 Year (annual)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rising debt maturity
**Historical Comparison:** similar to GFC and COVID recession periods

The percentage of US federal debt maturing in 1 year is rising, a 'debt cliff' that started in October 2025. This puts extreme pressure on US debt, with a trillion dollars added to the deficit every 100 days. This is seen as a serious problem, similar to periods around the GFC and COVID recession.

### 10. Margin balances at several retail brokers (annual)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** skyrocketing margin balances

Margin balances at retail brokers are skyrocketing through 2026, indicating that retail traders are taking on a lot of leverage, including 'hidden leverage' in 3x leveraged ETFs. This is a significant number that could lead to a systematic error in the markets.

### 11. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** clusters of Hindenburg Omens
**Historical Comparison:** clusters seen before topping points

The S&P 500 is showing clusters of potential Hindenburg Omens. While there's debate on whether it fully qualifies, similar clusters in the past have been close to market topping points. This, combined with declining advance/decline lines and losing certain moving averages, is a concern.

### 12. Semi Euphoria (SPX weekly RSI > 82) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** semi euphoria (RSI > 82)
**Historical Comparison:** only happened a handful of times, led to slowdowns or crashes

The market is experiencing 'semi euphoria' with the S&P 500's weekly RSI above 82. This has only happened a handful of times historically (e.g., 2015-2016, dot-com boom) and has generally led to generalized slowdowns or crashes.

### 13. S&P 500 Adjusted Forward P/E Ratio & Forward Profit Margins (annual)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rising profit margins, 'hamster wheel' economy

Forward profit margins for the S&P 500 are rising, suggesting strong earnings. However, the speaker questions if this is a 'hamster wheel' economy where businesses are investing in each other and recycling money, especially with the AI boom. Wall Street analysts are upgrading, leading to semiconductor rallies.

### 14. Temporary Help, ASA Staffing Index, Overtime Hours (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** early cycle signs vs. late cycle struggles
**Historical Comparison:** recession periods marked

This chart shows temporary help, staffing index, and overtime hours. Overtime hours are accelerating, and staffing is improving, which are classic early cycle signs. However, the speaker questions if this is genuine growth or if people are struggling and taking on more hours/jobs, suggesting a late cycle scenario.

### 15. Most Anticipated Earnings Releases May 18, 2026 (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Nvidia earnings

A calendar of most anticipated earnings releases for the week of May 18, 2026. Nvidia's earnings after the close on Wednesday are highlighted as a major event, being the world's biggest stock.

### 16. NVDA (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** playing catchup, 'buy the rumor'
**Key Levels:** 202.36 (previous resistance)

Nvidia has been 'playing catchup' with a big bull close a few weeks ago, leading to a 'buy the rumor' rally. Wall Street's expectations are high, and Nvidia has historically lived up to them. The question remains if it will be a 'sell the fact' event.

### 17. NVDA Forward PE (10 years)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** relatively cheap forward PE
**Key Levels:** 27.22 (current Forward PE)

Nvidia's forward P/E ratio is currently 27.22, which is considered relatively cheap given the company's growth and astronomical numbers. This suggests that despite the recent rally, the stock might still have room to grow based on future earnings expectations.

### 18. Global Money Supply (annual)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** accelerating money supply
**Key Levels:** 121.90T (current)

Global money supply has increased by $17.17 trillion over the last couple of years, reaching 121.90T. This acceleration in money supply is identified as a driver of economic growth, but also raises questions about sustainability when a company becomes the biggest in the world.

### 19. AMD (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** clusters of large trades near highs
**Key Levels:** 424.01 (current price)

AMD is showing clusters of the third, second, seventh, and eighth largest trades ever recorded, all happening near its highs. This is seen as an interesting observation, suggesting Wall Street is considering the level more closely.

### 20. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** software moving up, semiconductors shaky
**Key Levels:** 91.91 (current price)

Software stocks, including Microsoft, started to move up last week, with IGV showing an upward trend. This contrasts with semiconductors looking shakier, posing the question of which sector will break first.

### 21. EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** monster clusters, volatility
**Key Levels:** 188.01 (current price)

South Korea's ETF (EWY) is showing 'monster clusters' of trades, with the largest, second largest, and third largest trades all occurring over the last couple of sessions. This indicates significant volatility, raising the question of whether institutions are getting out of positions or taking profit.

### 22. DXY (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** stuck in corrective period
**Key Levels:** 100.250 (resistance), 96.695 (support)

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is still stuck within its overall major corrective period. While yields went up, which usually pushes the dollar up, the market hasn't broken out of its ranges. This highlights the importance of higher timeframes for analysis.

### 23. S&P 500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** declining percentage of stocks above 50-day MA
**Key Levels:** 43.93% (current)

The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average is declining, not broadening. This indicates a lack of market breadth and suggests that the rally is not as healthy as it appears, as a healthy market typically sees broadening participation.

### 24. US500 (2-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** broke below 50 exponential moving average
**Key Levels:** 7477.0 (options high level), 7343.4 (options low level), 7400.8 (current price)

The S&P 500 (US500) broke below its 50 exponential moving average, a significant event. While it has rebounded quickly in the past, Monday's price action will be crucial to see if the historical upward trend (series of higher highs and higher lows around the 50 EMA) is maintained. From a price action structure standpoint, the trend hasn't changed yet as the lower low hasn't been taken out.

### 25. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** psychological round numbers
**Key Levels:** 7500 (call resistance), 6500 (put support)

The Net GEX chart for S&P 500 options shows significant call resistance at 7500, a psychological round number. People tend to set options at these round numbers, leading to resistance or support. This is a recurring pattern in the market.

### 26. Net GEX Expirations for QQQ (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** structural highs, put jumps
**Key Levels:** 450 (call resistance), 420 (put support)

The Net GEX chart for QQQ options shows structural highs and people starting to jump puts around 430. While the S&P 500 showed more weakness, these levels are important for the Nasdaq.

### 27. Net GEX Expirations for NVDA (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** lots of calls
**Key Levels:** 230 (call wall)

Nvidia's Net GEX shows lots of calls coming in, with a major call wall around 230. This is expected to change closer to earnings, and will be monitored for further information.

### 28. Net GEX Expirations for TSLA (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** hit resistance, declined
**Key Levels:** 450 (resistance), 400 (support), 420 (support)

Tesla hit the 450 resistance zone and then declined, which is expected behavior. The 400 and 420 levels are identified as important support levels in the options market.

### 29. Net GEX Expirations for IBIT (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** bounced off support, hit resistance, declined
**Key Levels:** 20 (support), 200 (resistance)

IBIT (Bitcoin ETF) bounced off the 20 support level, almost got through the 200 resistance, and then declined back to the lows. This shows a struggle with the 200 resistance level.

### 30. US10Y (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakup through 4.5%
**Key Levels:** 4.597% (current price), 4.852% (previous high)

The US 10-year bond yield has broken up through the 4.5% level. While it hasn't broken through the 4.8% key level yet, this upward movement is significant.

### 31. US02Y (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakup through trendline
**Key Levels:** 4.079% (current price), 3.915% (previous resistance)

The US 2-year bond yield has broken up through its trendline, suggesting that interest rate cuts are unlikely anytime soon. This is not a new development, having been signaled since March.

### 32. US30Y (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** highest close since July 2007, series of higher lows
**Key Levels:** 5.122% (current price), 5.075% (previous high)
**Historical Comparison:** highest close since July 2007

The US 30-year bond yield has achieved its highest weekly close since July 2007, following a series of higher lows. This is a 'big business' event due to the 'fear of the unknown' it introduces into the market.

### 33. TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** falling to new lows
**Key Levels:** 83.66 (resistance), 82.77 (bull zone)
**Historical Comparison:** not seen since mid-2000s

The TLT (20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) is falling towards new lows, levels not seen since the mid-2000s. This is a significant development, as rising yields across the board (30-year, 10-year, 20-year, 2-year) are putting pressure on Treasuries.

### 34. HYG (iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower high after March sell-off
**Key Levels:** 80.98 (resistance), 79.46 (current price)

High-yield junk bonds (HYG) did not achieve a higher high after the March sell-off; instead, they formed a lower high. This signals that the bond market is not as happy with the current rally, as it tends to care more about the economy than the stock market.

### 35. US30Y (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breaking up
**Key Levels:** 5.005% (support), 5.122% (current price)

The US 30-year bond yield is breaking up, continuing its upward trend.

### 36. RSPD/RSPS (Discretionary vs. Staples) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** weakness in middle and lower class
**Key Levels:** 14.86% (current)

The ratio of discretionary to staples stocks (RSPD/RSPS) indicates a 'K-wave economy' where some people are spending out of control (e.g., San Francisco property), while others (middle and lower class) are struggling significantly. This is observed as a weakness in the broader economy.

### 37. COST (Costco Wholesale Corporation) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breaking out to new highs
**Key Levels:** 1048.95 (current price)

Costco, a staple stock, is breaking out to new highs, contrasting with the struggles of discretionary companies. This reinforces the 'K-wave economy' observation.

### 38. XLE (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** energy stocks spiking
**Key Levels:** 59.44 (current price)

Energy stocks (XLE) spiked, which is not surprising given the largest trade observed earlier. This sector is on the move again, and the question is whether it will break to the unknown, which would involve looking at oil prices.

### 39. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** mixed futures, potential breakout
**Key Levels:** 115 (resistance), 120 (resistance), 105.438 (current price)

Crude oil (USOIL) is showing mixed futures. If it breaks through 115 or 120 a barrel, it would be a significant deal, indicating a potential breakout in energy prices.

### 40. NAS100 (2-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** closed below 2-hour 50 EMA, potential trend change
**Key Levels:** 29,096.2 (current price), 28,500 (support)

The Nasdaq 100 has closed below its 2-hour 50 exponential moving average, which is the worst sign of weakness seen in this entire trend. This is a significant development, as breaking below this level and the subsequent lower low (where stop losses might be) could signal a change in trend.

### 41. NAS100 (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** biggest bear moves after historic run
**Key Levels:** 29,096.2 (current price)

The Nasdaq 100 daily chart shows the biggest bear moves occurring after a historic upward run. This highlights the volatility entering the market and the potential for a significant correction.

### 42. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** slight higher high, then move down
**Key Levels:** 556.34 (current price)

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) made a slight higher high this week but then moved down. This follows the observation of volatility entering the market last week.

### 43. KOSPI (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** heavy movement, two monster sessions
**Key Levels:** 7493.18 (current price), 7000 (support)

The KOSPI (Korean Composite Index) is moving heavily, with two 'monster sessions' showing significant volatility and recovery. This is an important market to watch.

### 44. DRAM (Roundhill Memory ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** tons of activity
**Key Levels:** 51.10 (current price)

The DRAM (Roundhill Memory ETF), representing hardware in the semiconductor trade, is showing tons of activity, indicating continued interest and movement in this sector.

### 45. XAUUSD (Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gold got hit, back at support
**Key Levels:** 4540.30 (resistance), 4501.79 (support)

Gold got hit hard, which is expected as it doesn't like massive yield breakouts. It is currently back at the 4500 support level. This is not the best number for gold, but it's holding support.

### 46. SILVER (CFDs on Silver (USD)) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** fell off a cliff, hit resistance
**Key Levels:** 75.8940 (current price), 72.0000 (support), 80.0000 (resistance)

Silver got hit really badly, falling off a cliff after hitting its first and second resistance levels. While it hasn't made a lower low, it's currently at 75.8940 and will be watched closely.

### 47. COPPER (CFDs on Copper) (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** completing pseudo flag
**Key Levels:** 6.2786 (current price), 6.5539 (resistance)

Copper is completing a pseudo flag pattern. There's some correlation between silver and copper, and the speaker expects metals to 'cop it a little bit' as yields go through, leading to a flight to safety.

### 48. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** great session, big volume
**Key Levels:** 91.78 (current price), 89.32 (support)

Software (IGV) had a great session, with big volume at the bottom, which is a favorable sign according to Wyckoff's laws. So far, software is up while semiconductors are down, which makes sense in many systems.

### 49. HSI (Hang Seng Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** breaking up, then declining
**Key Levels:** 25,733 (current price), 26,521 (resistance), 25,600 (support)

Chinese stocks (HSI) broke up but have now declined a little bit. The 25,600-25,500 level is important support for the Monday session, and it will be seen if it can hold.

### 50. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** bounced, hit 200 MA, sold off
**Key Levels:** 79,443.63 (previous resistance), 78,353.13 (current price), 82,000 (resistance)

Bitcoin bounced, hit the 200 moving average, and then sold straight off. It is struggling with the 200 MA and is currently stuck between previous resistance zones. It has fallen below the 20 moving average, which is considered a negative sign.

### 51. ETHUSDT (Ethereum) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dropped to second support
**Key Levels:** 2189.98 (current price), 2200 (support)

Ethereum dropped to its second support level around 2200. This is an important point for Ethereum.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a 'fear of the unknown' (FOTU) regime, characterized by extreme overextension in indices like Nasdaq and S&P 500, rising bond yields, increasing retail leverage, and internal market weakness. This is compared to historical periods like the dot-com bubble and the 2004-2006 boom/bust. The economy is described as a 'K-wave economy' where high-income earners are spending, but the middle and lower classes are struggling, as evidenced by discretionary vs. staples performance. Money supply growth is also a factor.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Pay attention to 5.1% on the US 30-year bonds, as it's a 20-year high.
- Watch Nvidia's earnings closely for a potential 'sell the fact' event.
- Monitor market breadth and internal weakness, as indices are overextended.
- Observe Monday's price action on the S&P 500 for trend confirmation after breaking the 50 EMA.
- Keep an eye on Treasury yields, as they are breaking up and putting pressure on bonds.
- Be aware of increasing retail margin balances, indicating high leverage.
- Watch for further volatility in the KOSPI and semiconductor markets.
- Monitor Bitcoin's struggle with the 200 moving average and Ethereum's support levels.
- Consider the 'K-wave economy' and its implications for discretionary vs. staple stocks.

## All Instruments Mentioned
US30Y, SPX, NVDA, AVGO, MU, INTC, TXN, AMD, ADI, NDX, SPY, QQQ, IBKR, HOOD, SCHW, US10Y, US02Y, TLT, HYG, RSPD/RSPS, COST, XLE, USOIL, SMH, KOSPI, DRAM, XAUUSD, SILVER, COPPER, IGV, HSI, BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT, DXY

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-05-21 20:09:08*