# Wall Street Is Dumping Stocks?
**Date:** 2026-05-20  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P7urunGQfC0)

## Main Thesis
The AI trade is unraveling, leading to significant market volatility, particularly in South Korean and US tech stocks. Wall Street is diversifying into defensive sectors, bond yields are at multi-decade highs, and retail options activity in semiconductors is skyrocketing, signaling potential market traps and increased volatility ahead.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. KOSPI Composite Index (KOSPI) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend after a rally
**Key Levels:** 7200 support, 7600 resistance

The KOSPI index has seen a significant drop of -12% recently, indicating something is happening in the South Korean market. The price has fallen below the red moving average (likely 20-period EMA) and is heading towards the blue moving average (likely 50-period EMA). This unraveling of the AI trade is impacting global markets.

### 2. United States 30 Year Government Bond Yield (US30Y) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (FOR YIELDS)
**Pattern:** breakout to new highs
**Key Levels:** 5.005% resistance, 5.184% new high

The US 30-year bond yields have broken out to 5.184%, a multi-decade high. This is a significant move, as bond markets waking up often precede extreme volatility in other asset classes. The weekly close above 5.005% is a strong signal.

### 3. US 100 Cash CFD (NAS100) (2-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** weakening after retests of moving average
**Key Levels:** 28800-28600 support zone, 29200 resistance

The Nasdaq is continuing to weaken, with price retesting and failing to hold above the red moving average (likely 20-period EMA). It's currently testing a support zone between 28800 and 28600. A break below this could lead to further declines.

### 4. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH (SHORT-TERM)
**Pattern:** pullback after rally
**Key Levels:** 200 support, 230 resistance

NVIDIA, a major AI stock, is about to report earnings. The stock has seen a significant rally but is currently pulling back. The speaker highlights the potential for hundreds of billions of dollars of flow based on the earnings report, which could lead to high volatility.

### 5. S&P 500 Heatmap (1-day performance)

**Bias:** BEARISH (TECH), BULLISH (DEFENSIVES)
**Pattern:** tech sell-off, defensive rotation

The heatmap shows a broad sell-off in major tech stocks (NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, TSLA) while defensive sectors like healthcare (MRK, LLY) and energy (XOM, CVX) are seeing gains. This indicates Wall Street is diversifying into defensive sectors, suggesting caution about the broader market.

### 6. Samsung (SAMSUNG) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH (WARNING SIGN)
**Pattern:** 450% increase over 12-18 months, potential bubble

Samsung stock has seen a 450% increase over the last 12-18 months. South Korean newspapers report people tapping retirement savings and life insurance to pile into leveraged Korean semiconductor ETFs. This 'fomo' behavior is a worrying sign, potentially leading to extreme volatility.

### 7. United States 30 Year Government Bond Yield (US30Y) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (FOR YIELDS)
**Pattern:** breakout to new highs
**Key Levels:** 5.19% new high

The US 30-year bond yields have reached a new high of 5.19%. The weekly close (WC) being a multi-decade high indicates that the bond market is becoming concerned, and this could lead to extreme volatility in other markets.

### 8. iShares U.S. Consumer Goods ETF (IYK) (monthly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (DEFENSIVE SECTOR)
**Pattern:** uptrend, large trade since 2016
**Key Levels:** 30-40 support zone, 70 resistance

The Consumer Goods ETF (staples) just saw its largest trade since 2016 (7th largest ever). This, along with healthcare and energy moving up, suggests Wall Street is moving into defensive sectors, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment.

### 9. S&P Top 100 Stocks with Inverted Call Skew (3M) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH (WARNING SIGN)
**Pattern:** approaching 2021 'retail' stock highs
**Key Levels:** 25% extreme
**Historical Comparison:** similar to January 2021 (Cathie Wood / meme stock era)

This chart shows bullish positioning in S&P Top 100 stocks with inverted call skew. It's currently approaching the 2021 'retail' stock highs, reminiscent of January 2021 when Cathie Wood's funds saw massive inflows and extreme volatility. This suggests a potential 'big trap' by Wall Street to take retail liquidity.

### 10. Retail Options - Semiconductors Activity Skyrocketing (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH (WARNING SIGN)
**Pattern:** skyrocketing volume
**Key Levels:** 2.8x average daily volume
**Historical Comparison:** highest number ever seen

Retail options traders have traded roughly 2.8x their average daily semiconductor volume this month, nearly 25% above the prior record set in June 2024. This 'retail all-in' behavior, especially with NVDA's stock split and run to surpass MSFT, suggests a potential Wall Street trap and increased volatility.

### 11. S&P 500 three-month drawdown following Fed Chair changes (historical)

**Bias:** BEARISH (INCREASED VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** historical drawdowns
**Key Levels:** -12% average drawdown
**Historical Comparison:** various Fed Chairs

Equities historically post sharp drawdowns in the first three months of a new Fed Chair. The average drawdown is -12%. While recent Fed Chairs haven't seen this level of volatility, the current market conditions (bond market waking up, retail 'all-in') suggest that a new Fed Chair could trigger significant market turbulence.

### 12. iShares MSCI South Korea ETF (EWY) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH (VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** large trades, volatility
**Key Levels:** 180-185 support/resistance zones
**Historical Comparison:** largest trade ever recorded

The South Korean ETF (EWY) has seen quite a lot of large trades recently, including the largest one ever recorded on this fund. This indicates significant institutional activity and potential for increased volatility, especially given the context of Samsung's rally and retail speculation.

### 13. VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH (VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** clusters of trades before volatility
**Key Levels:** 550-570 resistance zone

The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) saw huge amounts of clusters of trades just before the market started to get volatile. This suggests institutional positioning ahead of expected price movements, and given the current market sentiment, it could lead to further volatility.

### 14. Years When Nasdaq and 10Y Treasury Yields Both Rose (+2026 YTD) (annual)

**Bias:** BEARISH (WARNING SIGN)
**Pattern:** scatter plot, current position
**Historical Comparison:** various years

This scatter plot shows years when both Nasdaq and 10Y Treasury yields rose. The current 2026 YTD position (orange star) is happening into an established bull market, arguably an 'older' bull market. Historically, rallies in this context, especially with rising yields, can be precarious, unlike rallies from market dips.

### 15. Most Anticipated Earnings Releases (May 18, 2026) (weekly calendar)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH (VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** top-heavy in AI stocks

The earnings calendar shows a significant number of anticipated releases, with a particular concentration in AI stocks. NVIDIA's earnings (Wednesday after close) are highlighted as a potential catalyst, with implied movement of 7-8% according to options markets, representing hundreds of billions of dollars in flow.

### 16. NVDA, S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Dow Jones Industrial Average (BlueKurtic Market Insights) (daily (post-earnings performance))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (NVDA AS MARKET DRIVER)
**Pattern:** NVDA's impact on indices

This table shows the historical performance of major indices following NVDA's earnings reports. It clearly demonstrates that when NVDA is down, the Nasdaq tends to follow suit (e.g., NVDA down 3.15%, Nasdaq down 2.38%). This highlights NVDA's significant influence as a market driver, especially with its upcoming earnings.

### 17. SPY & QQQ Both Closed Outside Weekly Bollingers (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH (POTENTIAL DRAWDOWN)
**Pattern:** outside Bollinger Bands, historical drawdowns
**Historical Comparison:** previous instances of both closing outside Bollinger Bands

Both SPY and QQQ recently closed outside their weekly Bollinger Bands. Historically, when this happens, the average maximum drawdown in the following periods (1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months) has been significant, ranging from -0.2% to -8.8%. This is a warning sign for potential market corrections.

### 18. Margin balances at several retail brokers have surged (annual)

**Bias:** BEARISH (WARNING SIGN)
**Pattern:** surging margin balances
**Key Levels:** 250 billion USD, 2.0% of customer assets

Margin balances at several retail brokers (IBKR, HOOD, SCHW) have surged to record levels, both in absolute billions and as a percentage of customer assets. This indicates high retail leverage, which Wall Street often exploits, potentially leading to increased volatility and market traps.

### 19. US Dollar Index Futures (DX1!) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** trapped between ranges
**Key Levels:** 100.250 resistance, 96.695 support

The Dollar Index is still trapped between two key ranges. While not directly indicating a strong directional bias, its movement can influence other markets, and a breakout from these ranges could signal broader market shifts.

### 20. ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index (MOVE) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH (FOR VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** breakout to higher highs
**Key Levels:** 78.8142 previous resistance, 85.3218 current level
**Historical Comparison:** used to demonstrate March bottom

The MOVE index (bond market volatility) has jumped to new higher highs over the last two sessions. When bond volatility is up, it generally means the market bottom is not yet in. This index was previously used to demonstrate the March bottom, and its current rise suggests increased market uncertainty.

### 21. S&P 500 Index (SPX) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** decline to first support level
**Key Levels:** 7200 support, 7353.62 current level

The S&P 500 has declined to its first mini-level of support. The advance-decline line is still holding up for now, which is an important point to watch. The market is showing signs of weakness, but a sustained sell-off is not yet confirmed.

### 22. S&P 500 Stocks Above 50-Day Average (SPXA50R) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** hovering
**Key Levels:** 46.71% current level, 72.81% previous high

The percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 50-day moving average is still hovering. This metric can indicate the breadth of market strength or weakness, and its current state suggests a lack of clear conviction.

### 23. US 500 Index (US500) (2-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dynamic resistance at 2-hour 50 EMA, lower highs and lows
**Key Levels:** 7422.2 options high level, 7287.2 options low level, 7349.9 current level

The US500 is seeing dynamic resistance at its 2-hour 50 exponential moving average, with a series of lower lows and lower highs. For bulls, a break past 7450-7430 would be excellent. However, the current price action suggests continued downward pressure.

### 24. NET GEX All Expirations for SPX (daily (options data))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH (VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** call wall at 7500, put wall at 7350
**Key Levels:** 7500 call resistance, 7350 spot price, 7300 put support

The options market for SPX shows a call wall at 7500 and a put wall at 7350. The market stopped at the call wall, and the 7350 put strike has solidified during NVIDIA's earnings day. Everything for the next sessions is going to turn negative gamma, meaning the market could be pushing down upon itself if NVIDIA is a negative catalyst.

### 25. NET GEX Multi Expirations for QQQ (daily (options data))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH (VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** most struck put level at 700
**Key Levels:** 700-700 key level, 690 put support

For QQQ, the 700-700 level is a big key level, becoming the most struck put level. This suggests that bulls will like this zone, but a big bid is needed to push prices higher. The options market indicates potential for volatility around these levels.

### 26. NET GEX Multi Expirations for IBIT (daily (options data))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** more calls than puts
**Key Levels:** 42.5 resistance, 40.0 support

For crypto markets (represented by IBIT), the options data shows more calls than puts. The 50 exponential moving average is holding, but there isn't much significant activity in the options world for this instrument.

### 27. NET GEX Multi Expirations for NVDA (daily (options data))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH (SHORT-TERM, BUT WITH VOLATILITY RISK)
**Pattern:** more calls than puts
**Key Levels:** 220-230 current range, 250 potential high
**Historical Comparison:** history of beating earnings expectations

All eyes are on NVIDIA's earnings. There seem to be more calls than puts, likely due to its history of beating earnings expectations. However, if it underperforms, losing levels like 220-230 could lead to a drop to 200 or even 166. The implied move is 7-8%, which translates to hundreds of billions of dollars of flow.

### 28. NET GEX Multi Expirations for TSLA (daily (options data))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** sitting on psychological level
**Key Levels:** 400 psychological level

Tesla is currently sitting on the 400 psychological level. The options data shows a mix of calls and puts, with no clear strong directional bias. This level will be important to watch for potential price action.

### 29. United States 30 Year Government Bonds Yield (US30Y) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH (FOR YIELDS)
**Pattern:** breakout to new highs
**Key Levels:** 5.183% current high, 5.075% previous resistance
**Historical Comparison:** multi-decade high, back to 2007

The US 30-year bond yields are up, hitting 5.183%, a new multi-decade high not seen since 2007. This significant rise in long-term yields suggests that the bond market has 'woken up' and is signaling concerns about inflation or economic stability, which could lead to increased volatility in other markets.

### 30. US Government Bonds 2 YR Yield (US02Y) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (FOR YIELDS)
**Pattern:** breaking out of downtrend
**Key Levels:** 4.106% current level, 4.50% resistance

The US 2-year bond yield is breaking out of a long-term downtrend, currently at 4.106%. This suggests that there are no cuts on the horizon and that we might be entering an inflation-based, stagflation-based economy. Even though GDP numbers were good, the bond market is signaling caution.

### 31. RSP/SPY (S&P 500 Equal Weight vs. S&P 500 Market Cap Weight) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH (CONSUMER WEAKNESS)
**Pattern:** downward trap on discretionary vs. staples
**Key Levels:** +12.91% current level

The ratio of RSP (equal-weight S&P 500) to SPY (market-cap-weighted S&P 500) shows a downward trap on discretionary stocks versus staples. This indicates that the American consumer seems to be weakening, as money flows out of discretionary spending and into essential goods, further supporting a defensive shift.

### 32. State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH (DEFENSIVE SECTOR)
**Pattern:** double bottom style base, rally
**Key Levels:** 86.09 current level, 83.52 support

The Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) has formed a double-bottom style base and is now rallying. This, along with XLP outperforming SPY, confirms that Wall Street is moving into defensive sectors, seeking safety amidst broader market uncertainty.

### 33. State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH (DEFENSIVE SECTOR)
**Pattern:** picking up off real risks
**Key Levels:** 61.29 current level, 59.55 support

Energy stocks (XLE) have started to pick up off real risks, as expected. This further supports the theme of diversification into defensive sectors, as investors seek refuge in commodities and energy during times of uncertainty.

### 34. CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI) (USOIL) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** not moving barrels much
**Key Levels:** 108.595 resistance, 110.000 psychological level

US Oil is not moving barrels too much, but the 110.000 barrel level will be important to watch. While energy stocks are picking up, crude oil itself is showing less dramatic movement, suggesting a more nuanced picture for the energy sector.

### 35. Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH (VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** fast move up, 20% drop, volatile consolidation
**Key Levels:** 1383.29 current level, 1600 previous high, 1200 support
**Historical Comparison:** similar to Gold and Oil rallies

Sandisk (SNDK) rallied to 1600, then dropped 20%, and is now in a volatile, consolidated move. This fast move followed by a sharp drop and then tight-range volatility is reminiscent of Gold and Oil rallies. The speaker has set alerts at lower levels, expecting potential drops to be met by forceful bullish action, but acknowledges it's a guess.

### 36. NAS100 Cash CFD (NAS100) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** weekly close below previous week's low
**Key Levels:** 28836.6 current level, 28521.3 support

The Nasdaq's weekly close below the previous week's low is a bearish signal. The pressure seems to be around 28500, which will be a really important point to watch for further market direction.

### 37. KOSPI Composite Index (KOSPI) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** 12% down, becoming more volatile
**Key Levels:** 7112.22 current level, 7250 support

The KOSPI is down 12%, indicating that the hardware trade is becoming more volatile. This significant drop, especially in a major Asian market, is a key indicator of broader market instability.

### 38. Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH (WARNING SIGN)
**Pattern:** spike ups and downs, high volatility
**Key Levels:** 49.77 current level, 36.00 support

DRAM, a popular ETF for hardware stocks, has seen spike-ups and spike-downs, indicating high volatility. The speaker expresses concern about the amount of people piling into these leveraged positions, suggesting 'fomo' and a potential market trap.

### 39. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH (VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** rally, drop ahead of earnings
**Key Levels:** 220.61 current level, 202.49 weekly close Wall Street flows, 166.86 retail steal level

NVIDIA has rallied but has dropped a little ahead of its earnings. The weekly close around 202.49 is a key level for Wall Street flows, and 166.86 is identified as a 'retail steal level'. The implied move for earnings is 7-8%, suggesting significant volatility ahead.

### 40. VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH (VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** first touch to 20-day MA found bounce
**Key Levels:** 543.96 current level, 529.71 support

The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) found a bounce on its first touch to the 20-day moving average. However, the overall pattern of lower highs and lower lows suggests that a more sustained sell-off could be underway if these levels are broken. Very tough area here, requiring more observation.

### 41. CFDs on Silver (USD / OZ) (SILVER) (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** at most traded level, struggle
**Key Levels:** 73.6080 most traded area, 79.1931 future resistance

Silver is currently at its most traded level, indicating a lot of struggle. Future bids around 79.20 will be important to watch. Metals tend to weaken as long-term yields go up, and this is putting pressure on silver.

### 42. Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dropping through key supports
**Key Levels:** 4466.54 current level, 4501.79 support

Gold is dropping through key support levels and is weakening across the board as long-term yields rise. This confirms the negative correlation between metals and rising bond yields, suggesting further downside for gold.

### 43. S&P/ASX 200 Index (XJO) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dropping, breaking key levels
**Key Levels:** 8507.2 current level, 8460.7 next support

The Australian market (XJO) is dropping, having broken below 8600 and now heading towards 8460.7. This downward pressure on international markets is a consequence of the broader global economic shifts and rising bond yields.

### 44. Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** sitting on support, barely holding on
**Key Levels:** 25585 current level, 25503 support

The Chinese market (HSI) is barely holding on, sitting right on a key support zone. This precarious position suggests that further downward pressure could lead to a significant break, impacting global markets.

### 45. German 40 Index (GER40) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** bounced, but risk of dropping below 23500
**Key Levels:** 24262.3 current level, 23500 support

The DAX bounced, but the risk remains that it could drop below 23500. These are all very important levels, and a break below them could signal a 'flick the switch' moment for Wall Street, indicating a broader risk-off sentiment.

### 46. Bitcoin / TetherUS (BTCUSDT) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** 50 EMA holding, trapped between ranges
**Key Levels:** 76799.92 current level, 79443.63 previous resistance, 75500-76800 support zone

Bitcoin's 50 exponential moving average on the daily timeframe seems to be holding it for now. It's currently trapped between 75500 and 76800. The speaker is looking for price action to confirm whether Wall Street will try to bid it up, but it hasn't happened yet.

### 47. iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** found some legs
**Key Levels:** 91.95 current level, 89.32 support

Even software companies (IGV) have found some legs recently, showing strength and technical resilience. This highlights that even in a potentially gloomy market, there are always opportunities in different sectors, reinforcing the 'abundance mindset'.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The video discusses a potential shift from an AI-driven bull market to a more volatile, risk-off environment. Key indicators include the unraveling of the AI trade in South Korea, Wall Street diversifying into defensive sectors (healthcare, energy, staples), and rising bond yields (US30Y at multi-decade highs, US02Y breaking out of a downtrend). The speaker warns of potential 'Wall Street traps' due to high retail options activity in semiconductors and surging margin balances, reminiscent of past periods of extreme volatility (e.g., January 2021 meme stock era). The overall macro regime is characterized by increasing volatility and a potential move towards stagflation, where good GDP numbers are driven by specific sectors (AI) rather than broad economic health, while bond markets signal caution.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- The unraveling of the AI trade is a significant global market event.
- Bond yields breaking to multi-decade highs (US30Y at 5.19%) is a major warning sign for increased volatility.
- Wall Street is diversifying into defensive sectors (healthcare, energy, staples), indicating caution.
- High retail options activity in semiconductors and surging margin balances suggest a potential 'Wall Street trap' or liquidity grab.
- NVIDIA's upcoming earnings report is a critical catalyst, with an implied 7-8% move, potentially causing hundreds of billions in flow and impacting the Nasdaq.
- Volatility is back in the markets, and traders need to be prepared for sharp movements.
- The market may be entering an inflation-based, stagflation-based economy.
- Live show on Monday next week (9:30 PM Australian time) will cover market open and further analysis.

## All Instruments Mentioned
KOSPI, US30Y, NAS100, NVDA, AVGO, MU, INTC, TXN, AMD, ORCL, PLTR, MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN, TSLA, MRK, LLY, XOM, CVX, WMT, PG, AAPL, SAMSUNG, IYK, SPX, DX1!, MOVE, SPXA50R, US500, QQQ, IBIT, SNDK, DRAM, SILVER, XAUUSD, XJO, HSI, GER40, BTCUSDT, IGV, XLP, XLE, USOIL, US02Y

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-05-21 20:03:07*