# Wall Street Won't Stop...
**Date:** 2026-05-22  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a6135ro83Ls)

## Main Thesis
The market is currently experiencing extreme bullishness and complacency, particularly in tech and semiconductors, driven by strong earnings and IPO hype. While the overall trend remains bullish, increased volatility and potential for a significant pullback are present, especially given the historical patterns of mid-term election years and overbought conditions.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. NVDA (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend
**Key Levels:** $500 price target

The video opens with a daily chart of NVDA, highlighting a recent upward trend. The speaker mentions a $500 price target from one analyst, suggesting a potential doubling of the stock. This is presented as an example of Wall Street's 'bonkers' upgrades.

### 2. US500 (2-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** double bottom, upward trend
**Key Levels:** 7436.0 support, 7469.7 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** similar structural repetition

This chart shows the US500 index with a clear upward trend after finding support around 7360. The speaker points out a potential double bottom pattern and notes that the market is starting to see structure repeating a similar course, indicating a rally after volatility.

### 3. QQQ (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gap fill, volatility
**Key Levels:** 719.52 gap fill, 714.51 current price, 695.62 support
**Historical Comparison:** market behavior after +20% gain

The QQQ chart illustrates a gap fill scenario, with the market moving closer to the 719.52 gap fill level after finding support at 695.62. The speaker explains that volatility has returned after a +20% gain from the lows, a pattern that has historically led to volatile, and sometimes declining, markets.

### 4. NVDA Analyst Ratings (N/A)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upgrades
**Key Levels:** $330, $280, $335, $282, $500, $270, $280, $288, $310, $280

A table displaying various analyst ratings and price target changes for NVDA. Notably, Robert W. Baird upgraded NVDA from $300 to $500, suggesting a doubling plus of the stock. The speaker advises taking the average of these targets as part of a broader analysis.

### 5. Popular U.S. IPOs and Their Post Listing Performance (N/A)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** post-IPO decline
**Key Levels:** average 12-month return -8.5%, median 3-month max drawdown 18.5%
**Historical Comparison:** recent IPOs (2020-2021) vs. older IPOs

This chart analyzes the performance of popular U.S. IPOs. The speaker highlights that recent IPOs (2020-2021) have generally performed poorly, with an average 12-month return of -8.5% and a median 3-month maximum drawdown of 18.5%. This contrasts with earlier IPOs and suggests that the 'easy money' in IPOs is over. Upcoming IPOs like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI are mentioned as potential market movers.

### 6. SOXQ (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** cluster trades
**Key Levels:** clusters of transactions

The SOXQ (Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF) chart shows clusters of large dark pool transactions. Previous clusters have led to bullish action, but recent clusters are appearing near the top of the current rally, suggesting potential profit-taking or distribution.

### 7. MU (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** cluster trades
**Key Levels:** clusters of transactions

Micron Technology (MU) also displays significant cluster trades, particularly around recent highs. The speaker notes that the largest trade ever for MU occurred recently, followed by a market dip, suggesting that large players are taking profits, leading to volatility.

### 8. INTC (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** cluster trades
**Key Levels:** clusters of transactions

Intel Corporation (INTC) shows a similar pattern to MU, with large cluster trades leading to significant moves. The speaker suggests that these clusters indicate big positional changes and potential volatility ahead.

### 9. KWEB (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation
**Key Levels:** large transactions

The KWEB (KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF) chart highlights large transactions after a period of consolidation. The speaker notes that when everyone is doing something (like buying into a popular sector), it often becomes the most dangerous time, implying potential for a reversal.

### 10. NASDAQ Futures (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** overbought conditions
**Key Levels:** RSI > 80
**Historical Comparison:** forward returns since 2000

This chart from PolycarpFX Research shows NASDAQ Futures when the Daily RSI is above 80. Historically, while markets might rally a bit more after hitting this overbought level, they tend to become highly volatile and eventually stabilize or go lower. This aligns with the current market structure of a +20% rally followed by increased volatility.

### 11. Avg SPX Single Stock Put / Call Skew (3m) (N/A)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** complacency
**Key Levels:** lowest levels in history
**Historical Comparison:** similar to early 2023 (tariff crash)

The chart illustrates the average S&P 500 single stock put/call skew over 3 months, showing it at historically low levels. This indicates extreme complacency in the market, with very little interest in put options. The last time it was this low was in early 2023, just before a significant market crash, suggesting a potential for a similar event.

### 12. Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern (N/A)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** seasonal pattern
**Key Levels:** Q1 dip, rally, stabilization, decline
**Historical Comparison:** midterm election years (1960-2020)

This chart displays the typical seasonal pattern for midterm election years. It shows a dip in Q1, followed by a rally, then stabilization, and potentially a decline later in the year. The speaker notes that markets hate uncertainty, and midterm election years tend to bring volatility, aligning with the current market behavior.

### 13. Top 10 Stocks as % of S&P 500 Market Capitalization (1980-2026) (N/A)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** market concentration
**Key Levels:** 41-42% concentration
**Historical Comparison:** Dot-Com peak

The chart shows the concentration of the top 10 S&P 500 stocks as a percentage of total market capitalization, currently at 41-42%. This level is near historical highs, comparable to the Dot-Com peak. While strong earnings from these large stocks are positive, high concentration can be a risk factor for broader market stability.

### 14. S&P 500 - Yearly EPS Estimates (N/A)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upgrades
**Key Levels:** $386 (2027), $355 (2026), $338 (2025), $273 (NTM)

This chart presents yearly EPS estimates for the S&P 500, showing significant upgrades across the board. The speaker notes that earnings have been exceptional, particularly from the biggest stocks, which is a primary driver for the current market rally and analyst upgrades.

### 15. % of S&P Top 100 Stocks with Inverted Call Skew (3M) (N/A)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** extreme bullish positioning
**Key Levels:** high levels
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 2021 'meme stock' craze

This chart indicates the percentage of S&P Top 100 stocks with inverted call skew, which is currently at very high levels. This suggests extreme bullish positioning and higher implied volatilities for out-of-the-money (OTM) calls, reminiscent of the 2021 'meme stock' craze. This is seen as a warning sign of potential over-exuberance.

### 16. Retail Options - Semiconductors Activity Skyrocketing (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** skyrocketing activity
**Key Levels:** 2.8x average daily volume
**Historical Comparison:** indexed to average since 2020

The chart shows retail options traders have traded semiconductor volume at 2.8x their average daily volume this month, 25% above the prior record set in June 2024. This indicates a massive surge in retail interest and activity in semiconductors, which the speaker views as a 'cocktail' for volatile market action, suggesting potential for a significant correction.

### 17. DXY (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** bullish trend
**Key Levels:** 99.210 current, 100.275 resistance, 96.440 support

The US Dollar Index Futures (DXY) chart shows a bullish trend in recent days. The speaker attributes this to rising yields across the world, noting that the DXY is one of the biggest hedges globally. The 100.275 level is marked as resistance, and 96.440 as support.

### 18. US30Y (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend
**Key Levels:** 5.005% support, 5.197% high

The United States 30 Year Government Bonds Yield (US30Y) chart shows a strong upward trend, reaching almost 5.2%. The speaker notes that weekly closures are important for yields and that this rise in yields is putting pressure on other markets.

### 19. JP10Y (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** accelerating upward trend
**Key Levels:** 2.783% current, 2.091% previous resistance

The Japan Government Bonds 10 Year Yield (JP10Y) chart shows an accelerating upward trend, reaching 2.783%. The speaker highlights that this is a significant move that many people are not discussing, and it could put pressure on the USD/JPY pair, potentially leading to central bank intervention if it breaks 160.

### 20. USDJPY (monthly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend, potential intervention
**Key Levels:** 160.255 resistance, 159.038 current, 153.453 support

The USD/JPY monthly chart shows the pair approaching the 160.255 resistance level. The speaker suggests that if this level is breached, it could trigger intervention from central banks, given the significant rise in Japanese yields.

### 21. JP20Y (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** accelerating upward trend
**Key Levels:** 3.690% current, 0.416% previous low

The Japan 20 Year LSEG Government Bonds Yield (JP20Y) chart shows a dramatic acceleration in yields, reaching 3.690% from very low levels a few years ago. The speaker questions if this is a 'ticking time bomb' for the global economy, indicating significant debt concerns.

### 22. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend, resilience
**Key Levels:** 7499.90 gap fill, 7445.73 current, 7378.7 support

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) daily chart shows the market's resilience, with an upward trend. The speaker notes that the advance-decline line has not turned down, indicating continued strength. The market found support at the first level and has rallied, moving towards the 7499.90 gap fill and the 7500 psychological/call option level.

### 23. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** options positioning
**Key Levels:** 7500 call resistance, 7365 put support

This chart shows the Net GEX (Gamma Exposure) for all SPX expirations. The speaker highlights a massive concentration of call options at 7500, indicating strong resistance at that level. This suggests that market makers will likely try to keep the price below 7500 until expiration.

### 24. NET GEX Multi Expirations for QQQ (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** options positioning
**Key Levels:** 720 call resistance, 700 put wall

Similar to SPX, the QQQ Net GEX chart shows a significant call wall at 720 and a put wall at 700. The market rallied off the 700 put wall, and the 720 call resistance is expected to be a tough level to break, aligning with the 7500 level on SPX.

### 25. NET GEX Multi Expirations for NVDA (N/A)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** options positioning
**Key Levels:** 220-230 support, 250-260 resistance

The NVDA Net GEX chart shows strong support around the 220-230 range and resistance around 250-260. Despite strong earnings and analyst upgrades, the market sold off, but the options positioning still indicates a bullish trend, with calls outweighing puts.

### 26. NET GEX Multi Expirations for TSLA (N/A)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** options positioning
**Key Levels:** 400-420 resistance

The TSLA Net GEX chart shows significant call interest, particularly around the 400-420 strike prices. The speaker mentions the hype around SpaceX IPOs as a potential driver for this bullish sentiment in Tesla options.

### 27. NET GEX Multi Expirations for IBIT (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** options positioning
**Key Levels:** 45-46 resistance

The IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) Net GEX chart shows some call interest entering back into positive gamma, indicating a slight bullish lean in options. However, there isn't much to go off, and the daily 200-day moving average is highlighted as a key level to watch for a sustained trend.

### 28. MOVE (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** higher high
**Key Levels:** 79.7179 resistance

The MOVE index (ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index) shows that bonds are not 'freaking out' yet, but they did take a higher high. If this accelerates while the stock market is also rising, it would be a negative sign for the markets, indicating increased volatility and potential instability.

### 29. IGV (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** slow and steady improvement
**Key Levels:** 95.71 resistance, 89.32 support

The IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) chart shows a slow and steady improvement in the software sector in recent weeks. The speaker notes that this sector continues to play through the 'abundance' theme in the markets.

### 30. XLV (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** picking up
**Key Levels:** 154.69 resistance, 144.39 support

The XLV (State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF) chart shows that healthcare has started to pick up for the first time in ages. This indicates a rotation of flows into different sectors beyond just tech.

### 31. XME (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** bounce off fib
**Key Levels:** 128.96 resistance, 111.50 support

The XME (State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF) chart shows metals bouncing off a Fibonacci support level and starting to pick up. This is another example of diversification in market flows.

### 32. RSPD/RSPS (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** risk on
**Key Levels:** +3.51% (risk on)

This chart compares discretionary versus staples sectors, showing that risk is 'back on' in the last two sessions. The speaker notes that while the trend has been bad for the American consumer, the recent pickup suggests a return to risk-taking. If this ratio breaks below key support, it would be a worrying sign for the economy.

### 33. XLP/SPY (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** no break
**Key Levels:** 0.1178 resistance

The XLP/SPY ratio (Consumer Staples vs. S&P 500) shows no break of the 0.11 or 0.18 levels. This indicates that consumer staples are not outperforming the broader market, suggesting a lack of defensive positioning.

### 34. XLE (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** volatile, unable to break high
**Key Levels:** 108.595 resistance, 94.648 support

The XLE (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) chart shows energy has been volatile and unable to break above 110. The speaker notes that barrels dropped from their highs, and energy is still an interesting sector, but close watch is needed around the 94.648 support level and the daily 50 exponential moving average.

### 35. USOIL (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** volatile, unable to break high
**Key Levels:** 108.595 resistance, 94.648 support, 79.716 take profit zone

The USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)) chart shows volatility and an inability to break above 110. The speaker highlights that higher highs were not achieved, and while there is decent support, all eyes are on energy to see if it starts to improve. The 94.648 level and the daily 50 exponential moving average are key support areas.

### 36. NAS100 (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gap fill
**Key Levels:** 28521.3 support

The NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) chart shows the market approaching a potential gap fill. The speaker suggests that this is likely what most people are watching, with the market getting close to 720 (on QQQ, which is related to NAS100).

### 37. QQQ (2-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** volatility after rally
**Key Levels:** 720.00 call wall, 705.39 demand level
**Historical Comparison:** structure after huge rallies

The QQQ 2-hour chart shows the market getting close to the 720 call wall. The speaker notes that the market held the first level of demand and did not take a lower low, but it has entered a volatile structure after a huge rally. This is a point where many people lose confidence, as the market often takes a breather.

### 38. KOSPI (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** volatility
**Key Levels:** 8000 resistance, 7636.55 support

The KOSPI Composite Index daily chart shows significant volatility. While it sold off, it didn't sell enough to indicate an absolute top. The speaker emphasizes that increased volatility means there's action, and some participants are taking profits.

### 39. SNDK (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** V-shape recovery, buy the dip
**Key Levels:** 1600 resistance, 1289.75 support

The Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) daily chart shows a 'crazy stock' that went down 20% and recovered 20%, forming a V-shape recovery. This exemplifies the 'buy the dip' mentality in the market. The speaker considers this a very dangerous position and emphasizes risk management, noting that the stock continues to be volatile.

### 40. DRAM (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend
**Key Levels:** 56.00 resistance, 52.42 support

The DRAM (Roundhill Memory ETF) daily chart shows the ETF moving back up. The speaker notes that everyone is focusing on tech, semiconductors, and hardware stocks, and DRAM is benefiting from this trend.

### 41. SMH (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation, potential gap fill
**Key Levels:** 574.07 resistance, 547.71 support

The SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) daily chart shows consolidation after a rally. The most transacted zone was at the high, around 574.07, which could align with potential gap fills. The speaker notes that there are many interesting things happening around 7500 on SPX, 720 on QQQ, and this semi zone.

### 42. SILVER (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation
**Key Levels:** 73.4079 most traded area

The Silver (CFDs on Silver (USD / OZ)) 4-hour chart shows consolidation, with nothing much going on in the market. The 73.4079 level is marked as the most traded area.

### 43. GOLD (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** potential inverse head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 4593.18 resistance, 4527.27 current

The Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) 4-hour chart shows a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern forming, but the speaker emphasizes that this is a guess and requires confirmation. Currently, there is no technical pattern towards bullish action.

### 44. XJO (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation, bounce
**Key Levels:** 9000 resistance, 8431.2 support

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (XJO) weekly chart shows the Australian market has been consolidating for some time. It bounced back up after looking 'flaky' and hitting around 8400. The speaker notes that until it gets past 9000 again, it's not looking too good, remaining neutral to slightly bullish.

### 45. BTCUSDT (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** slow, struggling
**Key Levels:** 79443.63 previous resistance, 82000 resistance, 76000 support

The BTCUSDT daily chart shows Bitcoin has been slow and struggling. It failed to hold the 20-day moving average and is currently below the 200-day moving average. The speaker questions if it can break through 82000 and move towards 89000-90000, or if it will continue to languish. Other altcoins are also struggling.

### 46. BTCUSDT (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** small timeframe downtrend
**Key Levels:** 79443.63 previous resistance, 78600 resistance, 77771.91 current

The BTCUSDT 4-hour chart shows that the smaller timeframe is currently in a downtrend. The speaker notes that the bigger timeframes haven't shown any technical patterns towards bullish actions yet, indicating a cautious outlook for Bitcoin in the short term.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The video discusses the current market as a 'mid-term election year' which historically brings volatility and uncertainty. It highlights extreme bullish positioning in options, particularly in tech and semiconductors, and draws comparisons to the Dot-Com peak and the 2021 'meme stock' craze. The speaker also notes rising global yields (US and Japan) as a potential pressure point for markets and central bank intervention. The overall sentiment is that while earnings are strong and the market is resilient, underlying complacency and historical patterns suggest a period of increased volatility and potential for a significant pullback.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Wall Street upgrades for NVDA to $500 are 'bonkers'.
- Volatility has returned to the market after a +20% rally, which historically leads to more volatile or declining markets.
- Extreme complacency is observed in the S&P 500 put/call skew, similar to levels seen before a crash in early 2023.
- Mid-term election years typically bring increased market volatility.
- High market concentration in the top 10 S&P 500 stocks (41-42%) is a historical warning sign.
- Recent IPOs have shown poor post-listing performance, with upcoming large IPOs (SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI) potentially adding to market instability.
- Massive dark pool cluster trades in semiconductors (SOXQ, MU, INTC) suggest significant positional changes and potential volatility.
- Skyrocketing retail options activity in semiconductors is a 'cocktail' for market action, often preceding significant moves.
- Rising US and Japanese government bond yields are putting pressure on global markets and could lead to central bank intervention (e.g., USD/JPY at 160).
- Energy sector (XLE, USOIL) is volatile and has been unable to break key resistance, with all eyes on its performance.
- The market is currently in a 'risk-on' phase, but if discretionary sectors break key support, it would be a worrying sign for the economy.
- Bitcoin is struggling to maintain its upward trend, with smaller timeframes showing a downtrend and key resistance levels to overcome.

## All Instruments Mentioned
NVDA, US500, QQQ, SOXQ, MU, INTC, KWEB, DXY, US30Y, JP10Y, USDJPY, JP20Y, SPX, MOVE, IGV, XLV, XME, RSPD, RSPS, XLP, SPY, XLE, USOIL, NAS100, KOSPI, SNDK, DRAM, SMH, SILVER, XAUUSD, XJO, BTCUSDT, SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-05-22 20:02:40*