# Tuesday Stock Market Open: Oil Crash While Stocks Turn Postive Gamma Again? SP500, Nasdaq, Semis **Date:** 2026-05-25 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WWFzSas7AvQ) ## Main Thesis The market is entering a positive gamma regime, suggesting a potential for a melt-up in equities, particularly in the SPX and NDX, while oil is experiencing a significant crash. The focus is on identifying key support and resistance levels for a potential breakout or breakdown across various asset classes. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. SPX (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** ascending channel, positive gamma regime **Key Levels:** 5300 support, 5320 resistance, 5350 resistance, 5400 resistance The SPX is trading within an ascending channel, having bounced off the 5300 support level. Atkinson notes the market is entering a positive gamma regime, which could lead to a melt-up. He highlights 5320 and 5350 as key resistance levels to break for further upside towards 5400. The market is showing resilience despite negative news. ### 2. NDX (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** ascending channel, positive gamma regime **Key Levels:** 18600 support, 18800 resistance, 19000 resistance Similar to the SPX, the NDX is in an ascending channel, bouncing off 18600 support. Atkinson expects a move towards 18800 and potentially 19000 if the positive gamma regime continues. He emphasizes the strength in tech and the potential for a melt-up. ### 3. SMH (Semiconductor ETF) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** ascending channel, potential breakout **Key Levels:** 220 support, 230 resistance, 240 resistance SMH is showing strong momentum, trading within an ascending channel. Atkinson points out the 220 support and the potential to break through 230 resistance towards 240. He sees semiconductors as a leading indicator for the broader market's strength. ### 4. DXY (US Dollar Index) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** descending channel, potential breakdown **Key Levels:** 104.5 support, 105 resistance, 105.5 resistance The DXY is trading in a descending channel, currently testing 104.5 support. Atkinson suggests a breakdown below this level could lead to further weakness, while a bounce could see it test 105 or 105.5 resistance. He links a weaker dollar to a stronger equity market. ### 5. EUR/USD (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** ascending channel, potential breakout **Key Levels:** 1.08 support, 1.085 resistance, 1.09 resistance EUR/USD is in an ascending channel, currently testing 1.085 resistance. Atkinson anticipates a breakout above this level towards 1.09 if the DXY weakens. He sees this as a confirmation of dollar weakness and potential equity strength. ### 6. Gold (XAU/USD) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** ascending channel, potential breakout **Key Levels:** 2300 support, 2350 resistance, 2400 resistance Gold is trading within an ascending channel, holding above 2300 support. Atkinson expects a move towards 2350 and potentially 2400 if the dollar continues to weaken. He views gold as a safe-haven asset that can still perform well in a risk-on environment with a weakening dollar. ### 7. Silver (XAG/USD) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** ascending channel, potential breakout **Key Levels:** 30 support, 31 resistance, 32 resistance Silver is showing strong momentum, trading in an ascending channel and holding above 30 support. Atkinson targets 31 and 32 as resistance levels, indicating a strong bullish bias for silver, potentially outperforming gold. ### 8. WTI Crude Oil (CL=F) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** descending channel, breakdown **Key Levels:** 77 support, 75 support, 70 support, 80 resistance WTI Crude Oil has experienced a significant crash, breaking below 77 and now testing 75 support. Atkinson highlights the strong bearish momentum and the potential for a further drop towards 70. He attributes this to oversupply and weakening demand concerns. ### 9. US 10-Year Treasury Yield (TNX) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** descending channel, potential breakdown **Key Levels:** 4.4% support, 4.5% resistance, 4.6% resistance The 10-Year yield is trading in a descending channel, currently testing 4.4% support. Atkinson expects a breakdown below this level, which would be bullish for equities. He sees 4.5% and 4.6% as resistance levels if it bounces. ### 10. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** ascending channel, potential breakout **Key Levels:** 68000 support, 70000 resistance, 72000 resistance Bitcoin is trading within an ascending channel, holding above 68000 support. Atkinson anticipates a move towards 70000 and potentially 72000 resistance, indicating continued bullish momentum in crypto. ### 11. Ethereum (ETH/USD) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** ascending channel, potential breakout **Key Levels:** 3800 support, 3900 resistance, 4000 resistance Ethereum is showing strong bullish momentum, trading in an ascending channel and holding above 3800 support. Atkinson targets 3900 and 4000 as resistance levels, suggesting further upside for ETH. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is transitioning into a positive gamma regime, which historically leads to melt-ups in equities. This is supported by a weakening dollar (DXY) and falling bond yields (TNX), creating a favorable environment for risk assets. The significant crash in oil prices is a notable divergence, potentially indicating broader economic concerns but currently not impacting the equity melt-up narrative. ## Key Calls & Predictions - Expect a melt-up in SPX and NDX due to the positive gamma regime. - Watch for SPX to break 5320 and 5350 for a move to 5400. - Monitor NDX for a push towards 18800 and 19000. - Anticipate further weakness in DXY below 104.5. - Look for EUR/USD to break above 1.085 towards 1.09. - Gold and Silver are expected to continue their upward trend with a weaker dollar. - Crude oil is in a strong downtrend, targeting 70. - 10-Year yield is likely to break below 4.4%, supporting equities. - Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to continue their bullish momentum. ## All Instruments Mentioned SPX, NDX, SMH, DXY, EUR/USD, XAU/USD, XAG/USD, CL=F, TNX, BTC/USD, ETH/USD --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-05-25 20:00:16*