# Wall Street Doesn't Do This Often...
**Date:** 2026-05-26  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKkidNgguIM)

## Main Thesis
The market is currently in a late-cycle, news-driven environment with rising tensions and potential volatility, especially in mid-term election years. While some indicators suggest a potential slowdown or consolidation, the overall trend remains bullish, driven by AI and tech, with significant capital inflows and upgrades from Wall Street analysts.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPX (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** extended rally, overbought conditions
**Key Levels:** 42.63 (comparison lookback)
**Historical Comparison:** similar to Dot-Com boom (Mar 2000) and post-COVID rally (Nov 2021) where the market moved far from its 200-week moving average and tipped into the 40 zone on the comparison lookback indicator, followed by significant declines.

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a weekly timeframe shows an extended rally, with the market moving significantly away from its 200-week moving average. The comparison lookback indicator has tipped into the 40 zone (specifically 39.56), which has only happened three times in the past 30 years: during the Dot-Com boom (Mar 2000) and just before the end of the 2021 post-COVID boom. Both previous instances were followed by significant market declines, suggesting caution.

### 2. US 500 Index (Futures) (2-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** double bottom, higher highs and higher lows, gap fill
**Key Levels:** 7526.7 resistance, 7436.0 support, 7500.0 (gamma zone)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US 500 Index (futures) on a 2-hour timeframe shows a rally after forming a double bottom around 7340.0. The market has made a series of higher highs and higher lows, holding the demand level. A gap fill occurred around 7499.90, followed by a slight sell-off. The market is currently near 7526.7, which is identified as an options high level today, and 7500.0 is a significant gamma zone. The market has made a higher high in futures, but not yet in the real market during normal hours.

### 3. VIX (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (FOR VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** volatility returning
**Key Levels:** 16.71, 16.63
**Historical Comparison:** mid-term election years seasonality

The VIX (Volatility S&P 500 Index) on a weekly timeframe shows volatility potentially returning to the markets. This is attributed to mid-term election years, which often see increased volatility. The current VIX level is around 16.71/16.63, suggesting a period of complacency that might be ending.

### 4. KOSPI Composite Index (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** potential Wyckoff distribution (BC, UT)
**Key Levels:** 8100.13 (new high), 7750.00 (support)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The KOSPI Composite Index on a daily timeframe shows a new high around 8100.13. The market has experienced significant volatility, with large up and down candles. There's a potential for a Wyckoff distribution pattern (BC, UT) if the market closes underneath key support levels, but for now, the trend is still intact. Volatility is expected to continue in this market.

### 5. S&P 500 Price Returns vs Forward EPS Growth (year-over-year change)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** potential peak in forward EPS growth
**Key Levels:** +30% (peak earnings)
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart displays S&P 500 Price Returns (YoY) and 12-month Forward EPS (Earnings Per Share) YoY growth. The path projection suggests that forward EPS growth may be peaking, with the price return having already hit a metric where many analysts have upgraded as much as they're going to. A poll showed a 50/50 split on whether peak earnings have been seen.

### 6. S&P 500 - Yearly EPS Estimates (yearly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward revision of EPS estimates
**Key Levels:** $390 (2027 EPS), $358 (2026 EPS), $340 (2025 EPS), $273 (NTM EPS)
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows yearly EPS estimates for the S&P 500. Wall Street analysts are upgrading EPS targets across the board. If a 22x multiple is applied to the 2027 EPS estimate of $390, it suggests an S&P 500 target past 8500. This indicates an exceptional earnings period, particularly driven by AI and hardware sectors.

### 7. Volatility S&P 500 Index Seasonality (monthly (20-year range))

**Bias:** BULLISH (FOR VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** seasonal volatility spikes
**Key Levels:** June (low volatility), July-September (high volatility)
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart from EquityClock.com shows the historical seasonality of S&P 500 volatility. It indicates that volatility tends to spike around mid-year, particularly from late July into August and September. This aligns with the current market environment and suggests that increased volatility could be on the horizon, especially given the recent complacency.

### 8. SpaceX Valuation History, $ Billions (December 2002 - May 2026)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** exponential growth
**Key Levels:** $1,500 Billion (current)
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart illustrates the exponential growth in SpaceX's valuation, reaching potentially $1.5 trillion, with some estimates even higher (1.75 to 2 trillion). This highlights a significant shift in market valuations, particularly for companies with future potential, which is a key theme for upcoming IPOs.

### 9. First-Year Performance of the Most Hyped IPOs Since 2019 (daily (250 trading days))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** high volatility in initial trading
**Key Levels:** 0% (IPO price), +100% (peak rally), -50% (trough)
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart from Astra Insights tracks the first-year performance of highly anticipated IPOs since 2019. It shows that hyped IPOs often experience huge volatility, with some rallying as much as 100% in the first 90 days before reality sets in. The first 30 days are particularly volatile, with significant upward and downward swings. This suggests that upcoming blockbuster IPOs like Anthropic or OpenAI will likely see similar price action.

### 10. S&P 500 Performance Following Popular U.S. IPOs (various (post-IPO))

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** positive market impact post-IPO
**Key Levels:** 77% positive (2-month average)
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart from Bluetick Market Insights shows the S&P 500's forward performance after major US IPOs. It indicates that big, popular IPOs tend to bring energy and interest to the markets, often resulting in a positive impact on the broader stock market. On average, the S&P 500 has seen a 77% positive change two months after massive IPOs.

### 11. US Consumer Sentiment Falls to a New Record Low (May 2022 - May 2026)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** divergence between sentiment and market performance
**Key Levels:** Record Low (Consumer Sentiment Index), Highest since October (Inflation Expectations)
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart from the University of Michigan shows US consumer sentiment falling to a new record low, with inflation expectations at their highest since October. Despite these negative sentiment reports, the markets have been going up. This highlights a disconnect where sentiment reports don't seem to be as influential as they once were, especially since the US election.

### 12. XLK / S&P ratio & 3-Month Net Flows (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** market dullness after record inflows
**Key Levels:** Record (3-month net inflows)
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart from MacroCharts.com shows the XLK (Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund) versus S&P 500 ratio and 3-month net flows. It highlights another record in net inflows. Historically, markets tend to become 'dull' or consolidate after such record inflows, rather than immediately topping out. This suggests that while people are stacking, the market might not be as explosive as it has been recently.

### 13. S&P 500 Performance Following an 8-Week Winning Streak at All Time Highs (various (since 1950))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** sideways to dull performance after winning streak
**Key Levels:** 3-month later: ~3% gain, 6-month later: ~5% gain
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart from Astra Insights analyzes S&P 500 performance following an 8-week winning streak at all-time highs. While some might expect a negative outcome, the data shows a coin-flip chance for the next couple of weeks. More interestingly, the gains three months later average around 3%, and six months later around 5%. This suggests a sideways to dull market after such a strong initial run, rather than a significant decline.

### 14. Nasdaq 100: 6-Week Streak of Closes Above Upper Bollinger Band (daily (since 1986))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** slowdown or dull market after streak
**Key Levels:** 3% (2-month median return)
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart from Bluetick Market Insights examines the Nasdaq 100's performance after a 6-week streak of closes above the upper Bollinger Band. The returns are slightly better than the S&P 500, with a 2-month median return of about 3%. However, it also indicates a tendency for a slowdown or dull market at these points, rather than continued aggressive upward movement.

### 15. US Money Supply Growth (%) (6-month rolling change (4/2022 - 1/2026))

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** rapid money supply growth
**Key Levels:** 4% (fastest growth in 4 years)
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart from Azuria Capital (analysis by Tavi Costa) shows US money supply growth. It indicates the fastest growth in money supply in four years, reaching 4% on a 6-month rolling change basis. This suggests that central banks around the world are injecting liquidity into the markets, contributing to the overall bullish sentiment, despite other economic indicators.

### 16. NVIDIA Analyst Ratings and Price Target Changes (N/A)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** widespread analyst upgrades
**Key Levels:** $500 (highest price target)
**Historical Comparison:** null

This table shows analyst rating and price target changes for NVIDIA. Following NVIDIA's earnings result, there have been widespread upgrades from Wall Street analysts, with some targets as high as $500. This indicates strong institutional confidence in the company's future, although the speaker notes that a $500 target would imply a massive market capitalization and questions its likelihood.

### 17. MU - Micron Technology, Inc. (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** large activity at highs
**Key Levels:** $400 (support), $700 (resistance), $800 (resistance)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Micron Technology (MU) chart shows large activity, particularly near the highs. Volume Leaders indicates significant cluster trades, suggesting that while the stock is moving up, there's also substantial selling pressure or profit-taking at elevated levels. The speaker highlights that large market capitalization sizes of these businesses could become problematic, especially with new IPOs coming in.

### 18. INTC - Intel Corporation (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** large activity at highs
**Key Levels:** $40 (support), $100 (resistance), $120 (resistance)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Intel Corporation (INTC) chart also shows large activity, including the second-largest transaction ever recorded near the highs. This is similar to MU, indicating significant trading volume and potential profit-taking or distribution at higher price levels, despite the overall upward trend.

### 19. PSQ - ProShares Short QQQ (intraday (4-hour))

**Bias:** BEARISH (FOR NASDAQ)
**Pattern:** higher high on inverse QQQ
**Key Levels:** $25.00 (support), $26.00 (resistance)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The ProShares Short QQQ (PSQ) chart on an intraday (4-hour) timeframe shows interesting cluster trades near the Friday close on an inverse QQQ. This, combined with a higher high on the Nasdaq over the long weekend, suggests rising tensions and a potential pullback in the Nasdaq. The speaker notes that the Nasdaq is currently coming off a bit since tensions have started to rise again.

### 20. Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern (monthly (1949-2024 average))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** seasonal decline in mid-year
**Key Levels:** May (decline), June (decline), July (decline), August (decline), September (decline)
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart from PolycarpFX Research shows the seasonal pattern for midterm election years. It indicates that markets often decline from the back end of May through September. This reinforces the expectation of increased volatility and potential downward pressure during the summer months, aligning with the current market positioning.

### 21. JP20Y - Japan 20 Year LSEG Government Bonds Yield (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward trend
**Key Levels:** 3.589% (current)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Japan 20 Year Government Bonds Yield (JP20Y) on a weekly timeframe shows a strong upward trend, with yields going 'ballistic.' This is a significant development, as many in the comments section have been asking about it. It indicates a shift in the Japanese bond market, which could have broader implications.

### 22. JP10Y - Japan Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward trend
**Key Levels:** 2.695% (current)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Japan Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (JP10Y) on a weekly timeframe also shows a super strong upward trend, similar to the 20-year yield. This further emphasizes the significant movements in Japanese bond yields.

### 23. USDJPY (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** approaching previous intervention level
**Key Levels:** 160.668 (previous intervention speak)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The USD/JPY currency pair on a weekly timeframe is approaching the 160.668 level, which was the previous point of intervention by Japanese authorities. This is a critical level to watch, as a break above it could trigger further intervention or significant market reactions.

### 24. DX1! - U.S. Dollar Index Futures (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound with potential double bottom
**Key Levels:** 101.595 (resistance), 100.275 (resistance), 98.985 (current), 96.440 (support)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US Dollar Index Futures (DX1!) on a daily timeframe is currently range-bound. It has formed a small potential double bottom in the middle of the range. The market is not yet showing a clear breakout from this range, and the speaker notes that sentiment reports don't seem to be driving its performance as much as they used to.

### 25. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gap fill, sell-off, new high in futures
**Key Levels:** 7499.90 (gap fill), 7473.48 (current), 1804.91 (advance-decline line)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a daily timeframe shows a gap fill around 7499.90, followed by a slight sell-off. Weekend action pushed futures to a new high, although they are now starting to come off. Key levels to watch include the advance-decline line and the bullish percent index. The speaker also highlights 7350 in futures as an important demand area.

### 26. BRK.A / SPY (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** outperformance followed by underperformance
**Key Levels:** 46.91% (support)
**Historical Comparison:** similar to pre-GFC

This chart shows the ratio of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) to the S&P 500 (SPY) on a monthly timeframe. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway significantly outperformed the S&P 500 for a period, but has recently started to underperform, returning to levels seen before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). This is seen as an interesting ratio to track, as Buffett has historically been early but correct in his market calls, and his current cash holdings are at an all-time high.

### 27. MOVE 1D - ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** bond market volatility
**Key Levels:** 78.8142 (current), 78.4304 (previous high)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The MOVE Index (ICE BofA US Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index) on a daily timeframe shows that the bond market has moved down, but not conclusively. It is still above its previous high, indicating some 'freak out' in the bonds. The speaker suggests that while there's some volatility, it's not yet a massive change of trend.

### 28. BAMLH0A0HYM2 - ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** complacent market
**Key Levels:** 2.78 (current)
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows the ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread. It indicates that the market is currently very complacent, with not much volatility appearing. This contrasts with historical periods where volatility was more pronounced, suggesting that markets don't seem to be caring much about current events.

### 29. US02Y - US Government Bonds 2Y Yield (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend
**Key Levels:** 4.059% (current)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US Government Bonds 2Y Yield (US02Y) on a weekly timeframe shows an upward trend, with the market suggesting that no rate cuts are coming. This is a key indicator to watch, as it reflects expectations for future interest rates.

### 30. US10Y - United States 10 Year Government Bonds Yield (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** above key level
**Key Levels:** 4.504% (current), 4.500% (key level)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The United States 10 Year Government Bonds Yield (US10Y) on a weekly timeframe is still above 4.5%, indicating continued upward pressure on long-term yields. This is another important bond market indicator to monitor.

### 31. US30Y - United States 30 Year Government Bonds Yield (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** above key level, potential change in trend
**Key Levels:** 5.029% (current), 5.000% (key level)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The United States 30 Year Government Bonds Yield (US30Y) on a weekly timeframe is currently around 5.029%, having dropped slightly on the futures open. The speaker suggests that this could be a sustained change, leading to higher long-term yields and a potentially more volatile but bullish market, indicative of a late-cycle environment.

### 32. IGV - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** huge volumes, changing tune
**Key Levels:** 89.32 (support), 94.01 (resistance)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) on a daily timeframe has seen huge volumes, indicating strong interest. Initially, there was negative sentiment about software as a service, but the market seems to be changing its tune, with more positive news emerging. The ETF is making a series of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting continued upward momentum.

### 33. XME - State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** broken downward trendline, rally, consolidation
**Key Levels:** 117.07 (current), 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (support)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) on a daily timeframe recently broke its downward trendline, rallied, dropped a bit, and then held the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. It's an interesting sector that has picked up in recent days, and while it might open flat or down, it's an area to watch for growth.

### 34. TAN - Invesco Solar ETF (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 60.00 (support), 65.95 (current)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) on a daily timeframe is making a series of higher highs and higher lows. This indicates a strong upward trend in the solar sector, despite broader market discussions.

### 35. SMH - VanEck Semiconductor ETF (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound at all-time highs, volatility
**Key Levels:** 576.32 (current), 589.81 (all-time high)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on a daily timeframe hit its all-time high again, but is now showing increased volatility. The market is moving fast and swiftly, and the speaker reminds viewers that volatility is back in these markets, especially in the semiconductor sector.

### 36. XAUUSD - Gold Spot US Dollar (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dropped off resistance
**Key Levels:** 4600 (resistance), 4540.00 (current)
**Historical Comparison:** null

Gold (XAUUSD) on a 4-hour timeframe got close to its 4600 resistance level but has since dropped off following news of rising tensions. This suggests a bearish reaction to geopolitical events.

### 37. SILVER - CFDs on Silver (OZL) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dropped off
**Key Levels:** 73.4079 (most traded area), 76.9634 (current)
**Historical Comparison:** null

Silver (CFDs on Silver) on a 4-hour timeframe also dropped off a little bit, similar to gold. This indicates a correlated bearish reaction in precious metals to the news.

### 38. COPPER - CFDs on Copper (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** broken resistance, higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 6.3581 (support), 6.4289 (current)
**Historical Comparison:** null

Copper (CFDs on Copper) on a daily timeframe broke through resistance earlier and has since made a series of higher highs and higher lows on smaller timeframes. It has been stronger than gold and silver recently, despite a huge rejection wick on the weekly chart. It's currently holding fairly resiliently and is an important indicator for overall growth.

### 39. RSPD/RSPS - S&P 500 Discretionary vs Staples Ratio (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** risk-on/risk-off
**Key Levels:** -4.50% (support)
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows the ratio of S&P 500 Discretionary (RSPD) to Staples (RSPS), indicating risk-on/risk-off sentiment. While there have been a couple of days of 'risk-on' recently, the speaker emphasizes watching this ratio closely, as it reflects the American consumer's sentiment and the potential disconnect between the AI-driven market and the broader economy.

### 40. USOIL - CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** large ranges, whipsaw action
**Key Levels:** 108.595 (resistance), 96.648 (resistance), 91.953 (current), 85.069 (second support)
**Historical Comparison:** null

US Crude Oil (WTI) on a daily timeframe has seen a big drop, with a lot of weekend action where futures opened down significantly. This has happened a few times this year. The market is currently trapped within huge ranges, experiencing whipsaw action. The speaker notes that oil is moving up and down rapidly on news, making it 'scary' if not risk-managed correctly.

### 41. XLE - State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR F (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows, consolidation
**Key Levels:** 59.49 (current)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) on a daily timeframe has been less volatile, hovering and consolidating. It continues to make a series of higher highs and higher lows, following a 'one step back, two steps forward' pattern. The speaker emphasizes watching the Tuesday open and close for this sector.

### 42. US 100 Cash CFD (2-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** rallied, moved gap, new all-time highs
**Key Levels:** 29736.6 (current), 28521.3 (hidden demand)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US 100 Cash CFD (Nasdaq) on a 2-hour timeframe rallied up, moved the gap, and hit new all-time highs due to weekend news. The hidden demand around 28521.3 was a key area. The speaker notes the importance of put walls and the overall upward trend, but also expects volatility in the next 24 hours.

### 43. KOSPI Composite Index (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** volatility, potential Wyckoff
**Key Levels:** 8077.68 (current), 7750.00 (support)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The KOSPI Composite Index on a daily timeframe shows significant volatility, with large up and down movements. While there's a potential for a Wyckoff distribution pattern (BC, UT), the market trend is still intact for now. The speaker expects continued volatility in the next 24 hours.

### 44. SNDK - SanDisk Corporation (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** wild percentage movements
**Key Levels:** 1478.69 (current), 1600.00 (resistance), 1284.64 (support)
**Historical Comparison:** null

SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) on a daily timeframe has been extremely volatile, with 'wild percentage movements' like 20% down quickly and 18% back up. This is seen as a 'canary' in the coal mine, indicating rapid and swift market movements. The speaker highlights the importance of risk management in such an environment.

### 45. SMH - VanEck Semiconductor ETF (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound at all-time highs, volatility
**Key Levels:** 576.32 (current), 589.81 (all-time high)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) on a daily timeframe hit its all-time high again, but is now showing increased volatility. The market is moving fast and swiftly, and the speaker reminds viewers that volatility is back in these markets, especially in the semiconductor sector.

### 46. XJO 1! - S&P/ASX 200 Index Futures (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** hovering around key levels
**Key Levels:** 8647.1 (current), 8431.2 (support)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The S&P/ASX 200 Index Futures (XJO 1!) on a weekly timeframe are hovering around key support levels. The Australian markets, which have been open, are showing similar behavior to other global indices, consolidating around these areas.

### 47. HSI 1! - Hang Seng Index Futures (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** hovering around key supports
**Key Levels:** 25626 (current), 25574 (support)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI 1!) on a weekly timeframe are also hovering around key support levels, similar to other Asian markets. This indicates a period of consolidation.

### 48. GER40 1! - German 40 Index Futures (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** at resistance
**Key Levels:** 25301.1 (current), 25587.4 (resistance)
**Historical Comparison:** null

The German 40 Index Futures (GER40 1!) on a weekly timeframe are right on resistance. This suggests a critical juncture for the European market, with a lot of global markets sitting around all-time highs or key support/resistance levels.

### 49. BTCUSDT - Bitcoin / TetherUS (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** struggling, downward trend
**Key Levels:** 79443.63 (previous resistance), 76700.00 (current)
**Historical Comparison:** null

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) on a 4-hour timeframe is struggling, trying to hold around the 50-daily moving average and the 74500 zone. It hasn't shown a change in its current downward trend, and the speaker is looking for a higher high to confirm a shift. Bitcoin is seen as struggling, with risk-on/risk-off sentiment being important.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is characterized as being in a late-cycle phase, with central banks globally injecting liquidity (money supply growth). There's a notable disconnect between negative consumer sentiment and rising market prices, suggesting that traditional sentiment indicators are less reliable. The focus is on news-driven events, particularly around mid-term election years, which historically bring increased volatility. IPOs are expected to be blockbuster events, but also highly volatile in their initial trading periods. Analyst upgrades, especially in the AI and hardware sectors, are driving bullish sentiment, but the speaker cautions against complacency and emphasizes following price action and flows.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Pay attention to Wall Street's most important indicators, especially with rising tensions and volatility returning.
- Volatility season is back, particularly in mid-term election years, and markets could open up with significant moves.
- Follow the flows and price action, as markets can move differently than expected, even with upgrades.
- Watch IPOs and earnings closely this year, as they are expected to be major market drivers.
- Be aware of potential peak earnings, as suggested by some data, which could lead to a slowdown.
- Monitor the 160 level on USD/JPY for potential intervention speak.
- Watch for breakouts or rejections from current ranges in the US Dollar Index.
- Track advance-decline lines and bullish percent index for broader market health.
- Observe the 7350 level in S&P 500 futures as an important demand zone.
- Be cautious of market dullness after record inflows, as seen historically.
- Recognize that timing the market is difficult, and even experienced investors like Warren Buffett can be early.
- Pay attention to bond yields (US 2Y, 10Y, 30Y) as they suggest higher long-term yields and a late-cycle environment.
- Be aware of the significant volumes in software ETFs (IGV) and wild percentage movements in stocks like SanDisk (SNDK) as potential 'canaries' for market shifts.
- Watch metals (Gold, Silver, Copper) for reactions to news and growth indicators.
- Monitor the S&P 500 Discretionary vs Staples ratio (RSPD/RSPS) for risk-on/risk-off sentiment.
- Be mindful of whipsaw action in oil markets and the need for proper risk management.
- For Nasdaq, watch for higher highs to confirm continued upward trend, but expect volatility.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SPX, US 500 Index, VIX, KOSPI Composite Index, S&P 500, SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI, XLK, USDJPY, DX1!, JP20Y, JP10Y, MU, INTC, PSQ, US02Y, US10Y, US30Y, IGV, XME, TAN, SMH, XAUUSD, SILVER, COPPER, RSPD, RSPS, USOIL, XLE, US 100 Cash CFD, SNDK, XJO 1!, HSI 1!, GER40 1!, BTCUSDT, BRK.A, SPY

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-05-28 20:06:35*