# The Worlds Biggest Bear Is BACK...
**Date:** 2026-05-28  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vd60nheAJgc)

## Main Thesis
Michael Burry believes the market is at an inflection point due to the massive IPO market, reminiscent of the dot-com boom. While some sectors show bullish trends, others, like semiconductors, are showing signs of weakness and potential correction, with a focus on market flows and historical patterns.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend from recent highs
**Key Levels:** 210.00 support, 230.00 resistance

NVIDIA has dropped 11% over the last 8 sessions, wiping off $640 billion. Despite upgrades from Wall Street, the stock hasn't reacted positively, suggesting a potential correction. The speaker highlights the discrepancy between analyst upgrades and market reaction.

### 2. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rally followed by sell-off
**Key Levels:** 572.68 support, 621.82 resistance

The SMH ETF rallied significantly but then started to sell off. The speaker questions if this indicates a new trend in the markets.

### 3. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (2-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows, with recent pullback to 20-period moving average
**Key Levels:** 29,750 support, 30,250 resistance

The NASDAQ 100 has been making higher highs and higher lows, consistently bouncing off the 20-period moving average. The speaker notes a recent struggle around this zone, with some risk-off in futures markets, but the overall trend remains up.

### 4. RSPD/RSPS (S&P 500 Equal Weight vs. S&P 500) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** K-shaped economy
**Key Levels:** 2.63% support, 7.64% resistance

The chart illustrates a K-shaped economy, where the top 10% of earners are thriving (upper path) while others are falling behind (lower path). This indicates a disconnect between the stock market and the broader economy, which is a concern for long-term investors.

### 5. SNDK (Sandisk Corp) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rally followed by sell-off
**Key Levels:** 1,500 support, 1,700 resistance

Sandisk was upgraded by Barclays and rallied 8% in one day, but then sold off by the end of the session. This suggests that some investors are transacting near the tops, and the stock is entering correction territory.

### 6. USD/JPY (monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/WATCHFUL
**Pattern:** upward trend towards intervention point
**Key Levels:** 160.344 (previous intervention point)

The USD/JPY is creeping up towards the previous intervention point of 160.344. The speaker notes that the Bank of Japan has intervened at this level before, and its approach will be crucial for the markets and treasuries.

### 7. Companies With $1 Trillion+ Market Cap (N/A)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** concentration of market cap in a few tech stocks
**Historical Comparison:** similarities to the dot-com boom

This bar chart shows the market capitalization of trillion-dollar companies, highlighting the dominance of US tech stocks. The speaker points out that 41% of the S&P 500 is made up of tech stocks, and this concentration, along with new IPOs, is reminiscent of the dot-com boom, raising concerns about overvaluation and potential bankruptcies if future earnings don't materialize.

### 8. MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** parabolic rally followed by pullback
**Key Levels:** 540.00 support, 800.00 resistance, 950.00 resistance

Micron Technology saw a monster transaction, gapping up 8% above the previous price, but then declined. This suggests that some institutional investors might be selling into strength, which is a different behavior than typical retail traders. The speaker emphasizes watching these large transactions as potential inflection points.

### 9. IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) (intraday)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** large transaction at lows followed by price decline
**Key Levels:** 43.25 support, 43.50 resistance

IBIT saw the number one transaction at its lows, but the price has since declined over 2%. The speaker highlights that these large transactions often mark inflection points, and despite the initial buy, the subsequent price action suggests weakness. This is a pair to watch for potential reversals.

### 10. US 10-Year Treasury Yields (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/WATCHFUL
**Pattern:** yield jump, inflation expectations stable
**Key Levels:** 2.41% support, 3.00% resistance

The chart breaks down US 10-year Treasury yields into real yields and inflation expectations. The speaker notes that the recent yield jump was primarily due to real rates, not inflation expectations, which have remained in a tight 40-basis point range. This is an interesting dynamic that warrants further exploration.

### 11. S&P 500 Gains Over 8% in First 100 Trading Days of the Year (yearly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (BASED ON HISTORICAL STATS)
**Pattern:** historical price paths after strong early-year gains
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 performance since 1950

This chart shows historical S&P 500 price paths when the index gained over 8% in the first 100 trading days. The data suggests that a strong start to the year often leads to bullish full-year returns. The speaker acknowledges the current midterm election year context but notes that historical stats favor a bullish outcome by year-end.

### 12. S&P 500 Average Price Path (yearly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (BASED ON AVERAGE PATH)
**Pattern:** average price path for the first 100 days vs. rest of the year

This chart illustrates the average S&P 500 price path, showing that the first 100 trading days account for 13.7% of the full-year return, with the rest of the year contributing 10.2%. The speaker suggests that the current structure favors 'buy the dip' rather than 'sell the rip', indicating a low volatility year for a midterm election, which he finds difficult to believe.

### 13. S&P 500 Yearly EPS Estimates (monthly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (ANALYST EXPECTATIONS)
**Pattern:** upward revision of EPS estimates
**Key Levels:** 390 (2027 EPS), 358 (2026 EPS), 340 (2025 EPS), 273 (2025 EPS)

The chart shows yearly EPS estimates for the S&P 500, with analysts upgrading targets across the board. This is leading to market hype and new targets, but the speaker warns about the huge amount of leverage in the market, especially with record participation in semiconductors.

### 14. First-Year Performance of the Most Hyped IPOs Since 2019 (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** underperformance of highly hyped IPOs
**Key Levels:** 0% (IPO price)

This chart tracks the first-year performance of hyped IPOs since 2019. The speaker notes that the more hyped an IPO is, the worse it tends to perform, based on historical data. He highlights the current 'greed' in space stocks ahead of the SpaceX IPO as a potential warning sign.

### 15. VIX Seasonality (2004-2024) (monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/WATCHFUL
**Pattern:** seasonal lull in volatility during summer months
**Historical Comparison:** 20-year average

The VIX seasonality chart shows that volatility tends to be lowest in July and August, followed by a peak in October. The speaker notes that we are currently in this 'lull' period, which is often the calm before the storm, suggesting that increased volatility could be ahead.

### 16. Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern (monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/WATCHFUL
**Pattern:** seasonal headwinds in summer, rally into year-end
**Historical Comparison:** average % change (1949-2024)

This chart displays the average seasonal pattern for midterm election years across various indices (DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000). It shows a period of 'seasonal headwinds' around May-July, followed by a rally into year-end. The speaker emphasizes watching this pattern closely for potential inflection points.

### 17. DXY (U.S. Dollar Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** double bottom, upward trend
**Key Levels:** 96.440 (last bulls), 100.000 (parity), 100.275 (resistance), 101.595 (resistance)

The US Dollar Index continues to move up as yields rise. It has formed a double bottom in the middle of its range, and if it completes this pattern (A=B), it could return to the 100-120 parity area. The speaker notes the importance of patience and reacting to market movements rather than predicting them.

### 18. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** volatility, rally after sell-off
**Key Levels:** 7,499.90 (resistance), 7,520.37 (resistance), 1,804.91 (support)

The S&P 500 experienced volatility, selling off and then rallying back up. The advance-decline line continues to move up, indicating a bullish market until a lower low is seen. The speaker reiterates the importance of patience.

### 19. US500 (US 500 Index) (2-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/WATCHFUL
**Pattern:** consolidated movement
**Key Levels:** 7,585.81 (options high level), 7,451.1 (options low level)

The US500 shows very consolidated movement. The speaker mentions gamma walls and options levels, indicating a tight trading range. He notes that the updated levels are likely similar to what's shown.

### 20. US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average Index) (2-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/WATCHFUL
**Pattern:** similar to NASDAQ, struggling around 20-period moving average
**Key Levels:** 50,902.9 (resistance)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average looks similar to the NASDAQ, struggling around the 20-period moving average on the 2-hour chart. It's showing some risk-off in futures markets, but the trend is still up.

### 21. US2000 (US 2000 Index) (2-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward trend, holding 20-period moving average
**Key Levels:** 2,945.9 (resistance), 2,907.4 (support)

The US2000 has been quite strong, similar to the NASDAQ, holding above its 2-hour 20-period moving average. This indicates a risk-on environment for certain growth stocks.

### 22. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/WATCHFUL
**Pattern:** large call walls
**Key Levels:** 7500 (put support), 7600 (call resistance), 7521 (spot price)

This chart shows Net GEX for all SPX expirations. The speaker highlights massive call walls around 7500 and 7600, indicating significant resistance. He suggests that a very interesting phenomenon could occur if the market tries to break through these levels, which will be explored in a future video.

### 23. Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/WATCHFUL
**Pattern:** call-heavy options chain
**Key Levels:** 430 (call resistance), 420 (put support)

For the QQQ, the most call-written levels are 730 and 735. The speaker notes that all expirations are starting to stack up, indicating significant call interest.

### 24. Net GEX All Expirations for IBIT (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/WATCHFUL
**Pattern:** put-heavy options chain
**Key Levels:** 42.50 (put support), 43.00 (put support)

IBIT is starting to stack up with puts around the 42.50-43.00 zone. The speaker notes that when looking at all expirations, they are starting to get up there, indicating potential downside protection or bearish sentiment.

### 25. Net GEX All Expirations for TSLA (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/WATCHFUL
**Pattern:** climbing ahead of IPO, large call wall
**Key Levels:** 450 (call resistance)

Tesla is climbing ahead of the SpaceX IPO, with a significant call wall at 450. The speaker suggests that a break above 450 could be a very big move, driven by market expectations.

### 26. Net GEX All Expirations for SMH (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/WATCHFUL
**Pattern:** struggling around call wall
**Key Levels:** 550 (put support), 600 (call resistance)

For semiconductors (SMH), there are significant put positions around 550 and a call wall at 600. The speaker notes that SMH is struggling around the 600 level, which is not surprising given the large number of calls at that strike price.

### 27. IXG (iShares Global Financials ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** approaching new highs
**Key Levels:** 116.45 (support), 124.00 (resistance)

Global financials are performing well, almost reaching new highs, in contrast to US financials. The speaker is interested to see if this trend continues.

### 28. XLF (State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** struggling to break higher
**Key Levels:** 46.67 (support), 51.92 (resistance)

US financials (XLF) are not performing as well as global financials, struggling to break above previous highs. This indicates a divergence between US and global financial markets.

### 29. TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/WATCHFUL
**Pattern:** bouncing off multi-decade low
**Key Levels:** 82.92 (bull zone), 84.80 (resistance)

Treasuries (TLT) have come down to a multi-decade low and bounced off that zone. All eyes are on the 30-year and 10-year yields, as well as Japanese yields, for further direction.

### 30. US30Y (United States 30 Year Government Bonds Yield) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend
**Key Levels:** 5.005% (support), 5.200% (resistance)

The US 30-year yield is showing an upward trend, with all eyes on its movement, as well as the 10-year and Japanese yields.

### 31. MOVE (BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH (FOR VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** crushed volatility
**Key Levels:** 70.8964 (support), 77.4875 (resistance), 94.1973 (resistance)

The MOVE index, which measures bond market volatility, is getting 'crushed'. This is symbolic of the market rallying to all-time highs, with little risk coming into the bond market.

### 32. HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/WATCHFUL
**Pattern:** struggling to break above previous highs
**Key Levels:** 80.13 (support), 80.98 (resistance)

High-yield junk bonds (HYG) are not showing significant upward movement, struggling to break above previous highs. This suggests a lack of strong risk appetite in this segment of the bond market.

### 33. SMH/SPY (Semiconductors vs. S&P 500) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH (RELATIVE)
**Pattern:** weakening relative strength
**Key Levels:** 0.7935 (resistance)

Semiconductors (SMH) have been the number one market sector, consistently beating the S&P 500 (SPY). However, over the last 24 hours, SMH weakened against SPY for the first time since the recent volatility began, indicating a potential shift in leadership.

### 34. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** gap up, then sell-off
**Key Levels:** 587.79 (support), 612.30 (resistance)

SMH had a big session, gapping up but ending down 1% (4.44% on the session). This indicates a strong sell-off after the initial rally, suggesting profit-taking or underlying weakness.

### 35. SNDK (Sandisk Corp) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** 8% move after upgrade, then pullback
**Key Levels:** 1,589.94 (support), 1,690.52 (resistance)

Sandisk moved 8% after a huge upgrade, but then pulled back. This highlights the tendency for markets to sell off after significant upgrades, especially when they are already at elevated levels.

### 36. MU (Micron Technology, Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** largest transaction ever, rally then fall
**Key Levels:** 888.45 (support), 954.66 (resistance)

Micron Technology saw the largest transaction ever recorded, rallying significantly but then falling off. This suggests that despite the bullish sentiment and large buys, volatility is in the air, and the market is struggling to sustain these gains.

### 37. XAUUSD (Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** falling in an orderly fashion
**Key Levels:** 4,593.18 (resistance), 4,333.48 (support), 4,199.58 (support)

Gold is falling in a relatively orderly fashion, making a series of lower lows and lower highs. It was unable to break through 4600 and is now heading towards the 4333 and 4199 support zones.

### 38. XAUUSD (Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 4,595.14 (resistance), 4,333.48 (support), 4,199.58 (support)

On the 4-hour chart, Gold continues to show lower lows and lower highs, unable to break above 4600. The market is likely heading towards the 4333 and 4199 support levels.

### 39. SILVER (CFDs on Silver (US$ / OZ)) (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** putting pressure on most traded area
**Key Levels:** 77.7614 (resistance), 73.2120 (support), 67.5000 (support)

Silver is putting pressure on its most traded area from the past. The speaker typically looks at Gold in these situations, and Gold has not been favorable recently.

### 40. XLE (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** falling after rally
**Key Levels:** 56.99 (support), 62.63 (resistance)

Energy stocks (XLE) fell after a rally. The speaker notes that UK oil is still holding support, awaiting further news.

### 41. UKOIL (CFDs on Brent Crude Oil) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/WATCHFUL
**Pattern:** holding support, awaiting news
**Key Levels:** 93.26 (support), 94.10 (support), 109.64 (resistance)

UK oil is holding its support area around 93.26-94.10, but the market is waiting for certainty amidst daily news. The speaker notes that oil is just waiting for some sort of certainty.

### 42. TAN (Invesco Solar ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** rocketing up
**Key Levels:** 65.59 (support), 72.50 (resistance)

Solar (TAN) is still rocketing up, along with clean energy. The speaker highlights this as an example of an 'abundance mindset' and sector rotation.

### 43. PBW (Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend
**Key Levels:** 42.52 (support), 43.73 (support), 46.00 (resistance)

Clean energy (PBW) is showing an upward trend. The speaker reminds viewers that last year, metals and oil services were performing well, but there's always another opportunity in different sectors.

### 44. XME (State Street S&P Metals & Mining ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** good session despite market pressure
**Key Levels:** 116.00 (support), 125.93 (resistance)

Metals and mining (XME) had a good session, even though the broader market is falling off due to pressure on precious metals. This indicates a potential divergence.

### 45. CSI300 (CSI 300 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** not strong, falling off
**Key Levels:** 4,584.6943 (support), 4,808.3744 (support), 5,000.0000 (resistance)

Chinese stocks, specifically the CSI 300, are not showing strength and are falling off. The speaker notes that the Hang Seng is particularly weak.

### 46. HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** head and shoulders, very weak
**Key Levels:** 24,711 (support), 26,049 (resistance), 27,577 (resistance)

The Hang Seng Index Futures are very weak, falling again over the last 24 hours. The speaker points out a potential head and shoulders pattern, questioning if this spells something worse for the market.

### 47. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** floating higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 89.32 (support), 96.30 (resistance)

Software (IGV) is down 1% but still floating with a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating a continued upward trend despite minor pullbacks.

### 48. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 74,270.03 (support), 73,434.00 (support), 79,443.63 (previous resistance)

Bitcoin has seen the largest transaction ever recorded on IBIT around 76,000, but the market is still falling off, making a series of lower lows and lower highs. The bears are in control of the short timeframes, and the speaker emphasizes patience and reacting to price action.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The video discusses a 'K-shaped economy' where higher-income groups thrive while others struggle, leading to a disconnect between the stock market and economic well-being. It also touches on the historical seasonality of the VIX and midterm election years, suggesting potential volatility ahead. The speaker highlights the concentration of market cap in tech stocks, drawing parallels to the dot-com boom, and notes the current 'greed' in certain sectors.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch for potential market inflection points due to massive IPOs, especially in tech.
- Pay attention to the USD/JPY approaching the Bank of Japan's previous intervention point (160.344).
- Monitor the divergence between analyst upgrades and actual stock performance, particularly in semiconductors.
- Be cautious of the high concentration of market cap in a few tech stocks, reminiscent of the dot-com boom.
- Observe large transactions in instruments like Micron and IBIT as potential indicators of market shifts.
- Expect increased volatility in markets, especially as the summer lull ends and we approach October in a midterm election year.
- Focus on price action and money flow rather than predictions, especially in volatile markets.
- Track unemployment numbers, Core PCE, and bond yields as key economic indicators.

## All Instruments Mentioned
NVDA, SMH, NAS100, RSPD, RSPS, SNDK, USD/JPY, MU, IBIT, SPX, US500, US30, US2000, QQQ, TSLA, IXG, XLF, TLT, US30Y, MOVE, HYG, SPY, XAUUSD, SILVER, XLE, UKOIL, TAN, PBW, XME, CSI300, HSI1!, IGV, BTCUSDT, GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, AVGO, SMSN, BRK, LLY, INTC, AMD, ADI, TXN, ORCL, PLTR, NFLX, BAC, JPM, MA, BRK-B, UNH, JNJ, HD, CAT, RTX, XOM, CVX, WMT, PG, KO, PM, MDLZ, SPACEX, OPENAI, ANTHROPIC, UBER, COINBASE, ROBINHOOD, ARM, REDDIT, PALANTIR

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-05-28 20:02:29*