# Markets Don't Often Do THIS...
**Date:** 2026-05-29  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHSlQ5qHUHA)

## Main Thesis
The market is showing signs of extreme speculation, with certain stocks and indices detaching significantly from their mean reversion levels, reminiscent of past bubble-like conditions. While the overall trend remains upward, caution is advised due to elevated risk and potential for volatility, especially as we head into the summer months and upcoming elections.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. KOSPI Composite Index (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH BUT WITH CAUTION
**Pattern:** parabolic rally, detachment from 20-week moving average
**Key Levels:** 6237.28 support, 8451.17 resistance

The KOSPI Composite Index has become the 6th largest in the world, showing a strong parabolic rally. It is currently 70-90% away from its 20-week moving average, indicating extreme overextension and potential for mean reversion. The market has rallied significantly since March, with a 60-70% increase, but is now showing signs of high volatility and potential for a pullback.

### 2. Sandisk Corporation (SNDK) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH BUT WITH EXTREME CAUTION
**Pattern:** parabolic rally, detachment from 20-week moving average
**Key Levels:** 952.82 support, 1693.92 resistance

Sandisk Corporation is showing a parabolic rally, with the price moving 70-90% away from its 20-week moving average. This indicates extreme speculation and a high risk of mean reversion. The market is exhibiting 'wild numbers' in certain stocks, suggesting a speculative bubble.

### 3. S&P 500 Index (SPX) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH BUT WITH UNDERLYING CONCERNS
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows, but with underlying divergence
**Key Levels:** 7499.90 support, 7563.62 resistance, 1804.91 long-term support

The S&P 500 is making higher highs and higher lows, but the advance-decline line is showing divergence, indicating that fewer stocks are participating in the rally. This suggests a narrowing market breadth and potential underlying weakness despite the headline index strength. The market is still in positive gamma, but call walls are appearing at 7600.

### 4. Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** range-bound with recent decline
**Key Levels:** 91.87 support, 114.21 resistance, 100.00 psychological level

UK Oil has been trading in a range between 91.87 and 114.21. Recently, it has seen a decline, with the price moving below the 100.00 psychological level. The trend is currently down, with a series of lower lows and lower highs. A flip in this trend could signal a return to risk-off sentiment.

### 5. Top Sectors (PRN, TAN, XME, XLK, XLV, XLI, XLE, XLU, XLF, XLP, XLY, XLC, XHB, XOP, OIH) (5-day performance)

**Bias:** MIXED, WITH UNEXPECTED LEADERSHIP
**Pattern:** divergence in sector performance

Over the last five days, Clean Energy (PRN), Solar (TAN), and Metals & Mining (XME) have been the top performers, which is unexpected as most people would anticipate Semiconductors (XLK) and Hardware to lead. Semiconductors and Hardware have shown extreme volatility and are underperforming other areas, suggesting a shift in market flows. Software and Healthcare have also picked up.

### 6. Microsoft (MSFT) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** consolidation after a pullback, higher high, sitting on VWAP
**Key Levels:** 410.92 support, 480.00 resistance

Microsoft has been consolidating after a pullback, making a higher high and sitting on a very nice VWAP. Its forward P/E is 25x, below its 10-year average of 28.67x. The narrative is changing, with some believing AI will help good quality software-as-a-service businesses before hurting them. This suggests Wall Street is 'doing what they do, not what they say'.

### 7. U.S. PCE, Personal Spending & Personal Income (MoM) (monthly (Nov-24 to Apr-26))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BEARISH (DUE TO DEBT)
**Pattern:** continued spending despite rising delinquencies

The chart shows U.S. PCE, Personal Spending, and Personal Income month-over-month. U.S. people are still spending, with PCE MoM at 0.4% in April 2026. However, a lot of this spending is on debt, and delinquencies are rising, particularly in credit cards and auto loans from 2022. This indicates a potential underlying economic weakness despite consumer activity.

### 8. Historical Nasdaq 100 Extensions Above the 200-Week Moving Average (weekly (1988-2026))

**Bias:** BEARISH (DUE TO OVEREXTENSION)
**Pattern:** extreme extension from 200-week moving average
**Key Levels:** 200-week moving average
**Historical Comparison:** similar to two other periods in history

The Nasdaq 100 is currently 60% above its 200-week moving average, a level only seen twice before in history. In both previous instances, the market extended further before crashing back to where the rally started. This suggests a high risk of mean reversion and a potential significant pullback. The speaker acknowledges a viewer's observation that previous crashes returned to the starting point of the rally.

### 9. S&P 500: VIX Closes Below 16 for the First Time in 2+ Months (daily (2010-2016))

**Bias:** BULLISH IN SHORT-TERM, BUT WITH SEASONAL CAUTION
**Pattern:** low volatility period
**Key Levels:** VIX below 16
**Historical Comparison:** historical S&P 500 forward performance since 2010 when VIX closed below 16

The VIX closing below 16 for the first time in over two months indicates low volatility in the generalized market. Historically, this has led to positive S&P 500 performance over the next three weeks and month. However, volatility is still present in specific stocks like hardware and semiconductors, and seasonally, VIX tends to be lowest in July before rising in August and October, coinciding with midterm election years which are typically more volatile.

### 10. VIX Seasonality (2004-2024) (monthly (20-year average))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL, ANTICIPATING FUTURE VOLATILITY
**Pattern:** seasonal lull in volatility

The VIX seasonality chart shows that July typically has the lowest average VIX level, with volatility rising from August and peaking in October. This aligns with the current low VIX readings and suggests a 'calm before the storm' scenario, especially in midterm election years which tend to be more volatile in the third quarter.

### 11. Micron Technology Inc. (MU) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH (DUE TO SPECULATION)
**Pattern:** large transaction leading to rally, followed by volatility
**Key Levels:** 890.94 support, 923.52 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** similar to previous rallies where markets get too high expectations

Micron saw its largest ever transaction, leading to a market rally. However, this rally was followed by increased volatility and a decline, similar to previous instances where markets get 'too high expectations'. The speaker notes that upgrades from Wall Street often precede a market fall, suggesting a contrarian view on analyst upgrades.

### 12. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) (intraday)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL, WATCHING FOR CHANGE
**Pattern:** largest transaction ever recorded for IBIT
**Key Levels:** 42.33 current price

The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the main ETF for Bitcoin, recently saw its largest ever recorded transaction. The price action is currently bad and still going to the downside, but this large transaction could signal a potential shift. The speaker is watching this closely for future developments.

### 13. S&P 500 - Yearly EPS Estimates (yearly (Jan 2025 - Jul 2026))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL, BUT WITH CAUTION ON MARKET EXPECTATIONS
**Pattern:** upgrading of EPS estimates
**Key Levels:** $390 (top end estimate), $358 (current concept), $340 (lower estimate), $273 ('25 EPS)
**Historical Comparison:** double-digit year with double-digit year with double-digit year often leads to volatile double-dipping style year

Wall Street is upgrading its S&P 500 EPS estimates, with the top end reaching $390. If a 22x P/E multiple is applied, this would result in an 8500+ S&P 500. However, historically, consecutive years of double-digit EPS growth often lead to a volatile, 'double-dipping' style year. This suggests that while earnings look strong, market expectations might be getting ahead of themselves, leading to potential volatility.

### 14. First-Year Performance of the Most Hyped IPOs Since 2019 (Palantir, Arm, Reddit, Snowflake, Airbnb, Uber, Rivian, Coinbase) (first year post-IPO)

**Bias:** BEARISH ON HYPED IPOS
**Pattern:** initial rally followed by decline for hyped IPOs

The chart tracks the first-year performance of several hyped IPOs since 2019. Some performed well, but the 'super hyped' ones often decline after an initial rally. The speaker notes that typically, there's a lot of volatility in the first 30 days, then a decline, and then a pickup 12-18 months later. The speaker also mentions Michael Burry's recent alarm on IPOs and anticipates the SpaceX IPO to be a very important point.

### 15. Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern (SPX, NDX, Russell 2000) (seasonal pattern (1950-2024))

**Bias:** BEARISH AFTER SUMMER
**Pattern:** humping period in May-June, followed by a sell-off after summer

The midterm election year seasonal pattern shows a 'humping period' in May and June, where the market recovers from an initial sell-off. This is often followed by a sell-off after the summer months. The speaker and others like Tom Lee believe this pattern could repeat, with increased volatility and uncertainty ahead of the elections.

### 16. U.S. Dollar Index Futures (DX1!) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BEARISH (DUE TO RECENT DROP)
**Pattern:** trapped in a range, double bottom
**Key Levels:** 98.960 current, 100.275 resistance, 96.440 support

The U.S. Dollar Index is still trapped in a range, showing a double bottom pattern and moving towards the upper end. A recent drop over the last 24 hours, possibly due to a 'ceasefire' narrative, sent the dollar down. This suggests potential for yields to rise, but the overall trend is still range-bound.

### 17. US 500 Index (US500) (2-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH, BUT WITH OPTIONS RESISTANCE
**Pattern:** driving higher, but with options activity
**Key Levels:** 7566.8 current, 7626.3 (options high level), 7500.7 (options low level)

The US 500 Index has been driving higher, with options high levels at 7626.3 and low levels at 7500.7. The market is still pressing forward to higher highs and higher lows, but the options activity suggests potential resistance at these levels.

### 18. US 100 Cash CFD (NAS100) (2-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH, BUT WATCHING FOR MEAN REVERSION
**Pattern:** sold under 20-hour moving average but held stop-loss zone, then rallied again
**Key Levels:** 30193.6 current, 29718.8 support

The Nasdaq 100 sold below its 20-hour moving average but held the stop-loss zone before rallying again. If it makes another higher high, the 20-hour moving average will come into focus. Key levels to watch for bears are below 29700. The market is currently showing higher highs and higher lows, suggesting a strong upward trend that should not be fought.

### 19. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (2026-05-28 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH (DUE TO POSITIVE GAMMA)
**Pattern:** positive gamma, call walls appearing
**Key Levels:** 7600 (call resistance), 7500 (put support)

Call walls are starting to appear at 7600 for the S&P 500, with a lot of calls at 7500. The market is in positive gamma across all expirations, indicating that market makers are long gamma and will likely dampen volatility. 7600 is the most struck zone for the next 24 hours and the next week.

### 20. Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ (2026-05-28 16:58 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** similar to SPX, with call walls
**Key Levels:** 735 (call resistance), 740 (call resistance)

Similar to the S&P 500, the QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is showing call walls at 735 and 740, which are the next significant zones. The market is in positive gamma, suggesting dampened volatility.

### 21. Net GEX All Expirations for TSLA (2026-05-28 16:58 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** call walls at 450, put support at 440
**Key Levels:** 450 (call resistance), 440 (put support)

Tesla is showing call walls at 450 and put support at 440. The market is in positive gamma, suggesting dampened volatility. 450 remains the biggest area for call resistance.

### 22. Net GEX All Expirations for NVDA (2026-05-28 16:58 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** no massive put wall yet
**Key Levels:** 215 (put support)

Nvidia is currently at 215, but the speaker notes that there isn't a massive put wall at this level yet. This suggests that while the stock has seen a decline despite strong earnings, there isn't significant options-based support to prevent further downside. The market thinks it can't get any better because of the 5 trillion dollar market cap.

### 23. Net GEX All Expirations for IBIT (2026-05-28 16:58 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY BULLISH (IF RELIEF RALLY OCCURS)
**Pattern:** increasing put options
**Key Levels:** 41.50 (put support), 41.00 (put support)

Bitcoin is approaching 41.50 and 41.00, which tend to have more put options. A lot of options puts are starting to appear on Bitcoin. If this gets some form of relief rally, it could be a positive sign of flow returning, and the number one transaction needing to be revisited.

### 24. US 30 Year Government Bonds Yield (US30Y) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** decline in yields
**Key Levels:** 5.005% resistance, 4.966% current

The US 30-year bond yield has declined, meaning bond prices have risen. This doesn't necessarily mean bonds are 'over' in terms of seeing spikes, but it's a notable decline. The yield is currently at 4.966%.

### 25. US 10 Year Government Bonds Yield (US10Y) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** decline in yields, higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 4.500% resistance, 4.439% current

The US 10-year bond yield has also declined, but is still showing a series of higher highs and higher lows. The yield is currently at 4.439%.

### 26. US 2 Year Government Bonds Yield (US02Y) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** decline in yields, higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 4.016% current

The US 2-year bond yield also came down, but is still showing a series of higher highs and higher lows. The yield is currently at 4.016%.

### 27. State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH
**Pattern:** lagging, stuck
**Key Levels:** 51.27 current, 55.47 resistance, 46.67 support
**Historical Comparison:** financials vs. SPY showing a later cycle market

Financials (XLF) are very laggy and stuck, not doing much. The speaker highlights the XLF/SPY ratio, which is showing a later cycle market. This is a chart the speaker always pays attention to, and he doesn't like what he sees, suggesting potential trouble if negative signs emerge. The current price is 51.27.

### 28. State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** new high, island reversal in direction of trend
**Key Levels:** 126.45 current, 117.88 support

Metals & Mining (XME) just made a new high, showing an 'island reversal' in the direction of the trend. This is considered a positive sign, with the current price at 126.45.

### 29. Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward trend, getting closer to gap fill
**Key Levels:** 45.88 current, 42.52 support

Clean Energy (PBW) is in a strong upward trend, getting closer to a gap fill and the daily 200-day moving average zone. It's showing higher highs and higher lows, with the current price at 45.88.

### 30. Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward trend, contending with semiconductors
**Key Levels:** 71.93 current, 64.60 support

Solar (TAN) has been in a strong upward trend, particularly since April, and is starting to contend with semiconductors. The current price is 71.93. While a 24% gain might not sound impressive compared to Micron, it highlights that there are always other opportunities in the market.

### 31. Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI1!) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BEARISH (DUE TO CAPITAL OUTFLOW)
**Pattern:** barely holding on support
**Key Levels:** 24990 current, 24724 support

Chinese markets, represented by the Hang Seng Index Futures, are barely holding on to support at 24990. With capital outflows and other issues, this market is right back on its support level and needs to hold. So far, it has done so.

### 32. Bitcoin / TetherUS (BTCUSDT) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs, failed to recover previous resistance
**Key Levels:** 73335.94 current, 79443.63 (previous resistance), 70782.71 (support)
**Historical Comparison:** alt season of semiconductors

Bitcoin is not looking great for the bulls, showing a series of lower lows and lower highs. Despite a massive transaction, the market has not recovered back past the previous resistance at 79443.63. The speaker suggests Bitcoin might be heading towards 70800. Crypto in general has been disappointing, with many people moving to 'space stocks' and semiconductors, which the speaker calls the 'alt season of semiconductors'.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a late-cycle regime, characterized by extreme speculation in certain sectors (like semiconductors and hardware) and indices (KOSPI, Nasdaq 100) that are significantly detached from their mean reversion levels. This is reminiscent of past bubble-like conditions. While the overall market trend is still upward, market breadth is narrowing, and there's a seasonal lull in volatility during summer months, which is historically followed by increased volatility in midterm election years. Consumer spending is high but increasingly debt-fueled, and bond yields are declining. The 'alt season of semiconductors' is drawing capital away from traditional crypto assets.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Exercise caution due to extreme speculation and detachment from mean reversion in certain indices and stocks.
- Pay attention to market breadth, as a narrowing breadth despite index strength can signal underlying weakness.
- Be aware of the seasonal pattern of VIX, which suggests a potential increase in volatility after the summer months, especially in midterm election years.
- Monitor debt delinquencies, particularly in credit cards and auto loans, as they could become a significant issue.
- Watch for mean reversion in overextended assets; while the trend is up, parabolic moves often end with brutal pullbacks.
- Keep an eye on the Hang Seng Index for signs of support holding, as Chinese markets are barely holding on.
- Risk management is key, especially when markets go parabolic.

## All Instruments Mentioned
KOSPI Composite Index, Sandisk Corporation (SNDK), S&P 500 Index (SPX), Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL), Clean Energy (PRN), Solar (TAN), Metals & Mining (XME), Semiconductors (XLK), Hardware, Software, Healthcare, Microsoft (MSFT), U.S. PCE, Personal Spending, Personal Income, Nasdaq 100, VIX, Micron Technology Inc. (MU), Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Tesla (TSLA), Nvidia (NVDA), US 30 Year Government Bonds Yield (US30Y), US 10 Year Government Bonds Yield (US10Y), US 2 Year Government Bonds Yield (US02Y), State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF), XLF/SPY, Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (PBW), Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI1!), Bitcoin / TetherUS (BTCUSDT), Silver, Copper, SpaceX

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-05-29 20:01:17*