# This Has Only Happened 3 Times…
**Date:** 2026-05-31  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmUSi8MYEVg)

## Main Thesis
The market is currently in a late-cycle phase, showing signs of rotation from hardware to software, with a potential for increased volatility and a significant IPO event (SpaceX) on the horizon. While the overall market is making higher highs, there are underlying concerns about the real cost of AI and the sustainability of current valuations, reminiscent of past market bubbles.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPACE (VettaFi Space Index) (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** upward parabolic curve
**Key Levels:** 2738.4505 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** Dot-com boom (2000)

The VettaFi Space Index is showing a parabolic upward curve, reaching a multiple of 42 times, a level only seen once before during the dot-com boom in 2000. This suggests an overheated market in the space sector, indicating a potential for a significant downturn.

### 2. NVDA/SMH (NVIDIA vs. VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downward trend
**Key Levels:** 0.3525 support, 0.2873 potential support

NVIDIA is losing ground against the broader semiconductor sector (SMH), indicating a rotation out of hardware stocks. The chart shows a clear downtrend with a potential target of 0.2873. This weakness in a leading hardware stock suggests a re-evaluation of the 'picks and shovels' narrative in the AI space.

### 3. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend
**Key Levels:** 101.66 resistance, 89.32 support

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) is showing an upward trend, indicating strength in software stocks. This contrasts with the weakness in hardware, suggesting a rotation within the tech sector. The chart highlights a potential move towards 101.66.

### 4. Shiller PE Ratio (All)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rising trend
**Key Levels:** 42.66 current level
**Historical Comparison:** 2000 crash, 2007-2008 housing crisis

The Shiller PE Ratio is currently at 42.66, a level comparable to the peaks before the 2000 dot-com crash and the 2007-2008 housing crisis. This indicator, which smooths out earnings over 10 years, suggests the market is significantly overvalued. A trendline analysis indicates a potential for a higher high before a significant downturn.

### 5. MSFT (Microsoft Corporation) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** pit formation, potential head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 410.92 support, 480.00 resistance (gap fill)

Microsoft's daily chart shows a 'pit' formation, with strong volume and price action. While it delivered strong earnings, the stock has sold off, and there's a potential gap fill at 480.00. The chart also shows a potential head and shoulders pattern, with a left head, right shoulder, and a breakout. The market is reassessing the real cost of AI, and Microsoft's forward P/E was lower than its 10-year average, making it attractive.

### 6. Software Sector ETF IGV (Daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout above 200-DMA
**Key Levels:** 200-Day Moving Average
**Historical Comparison:** IGV forward performance since 2001

The Software Sector ETF (IGV) has moved back above its 200-Day Moving Average after 97+ days, which is historically a positive sign for future gains. This suggests that high-moat software businesses might be helped by AI, rather than hurt by it, as people realize the real cost of AI and shift towards more efficient software solutions.

### 7. QCOM (QUALCOMM Incorporated) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rally, sell-off, potential second rally
**Key Levels:** 125.00 support, 175.00 resistance

QUALCOMM has seen significant transactions, including the second largest ever, following a massive rally and subsequent sell-off. The chart shows a rally from 125.00 to 175.00, a sell-off, and now a potential second rally. This indicates significant institutional interest and volatility in hardware stocks.

### 8. IGV vs BTC Correlation Divergence (Daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** divergence

The chart shows a divergence between the Software Sector ETF (IGV) and Bitcoin (BTC). Software is moving up, while Bitcoin has been lagging. This suggests a decoupling of these assets, potentially due to traders shifting from crypto to traditional markets or a re-evaluation of the 'real cost' of AI.

### 9. BIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downtrend, potential reversal
**Key Levels:** 41.50 support, 44.00 resistance

The iShares Bitcoin Trust (BIT) has been suffering, with a lot of Bitcoin and crypto traders moving to general markets. The chart shows a downtrend with a large dark pool sweep a week ago, suggesting a potential reversal. The market is trying to price up Bitcoin, but it's still in a series of lower lows and lower highs.

### 10. First-Year Performance of the Most Hyped IPOs Since 2019 (Daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** various IPO price paths
**Historical Comparison:** various IPOs since 2019 (Palantir, Arm, Reddit, Snowflake, Uber, Airbnb, etc.)

This chart illustrates the first-year performance of several hyped IPOs since 2019. It shows that IPOs often come with a lot of hype and then drop off. The upcoming SpaceX IPO is expected to be huge, and the market will be watching to see if it follows a similar pattern or if it can sustain its initial gains. The first 30-90 days are crucial for these stocks.

### 11. S&P 500 Performance Following Popular U.S. IPOs (Monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** mixed performance
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 forward performance post major IPOs (N=28)

This chart analyzes the S&P 500's performance following major US IPOs. It shows that often markets find energy into massive IPOs, and then the broader market does okay over the next 2-3 months, sometimes with a hiccup in the first month. This suggests that while individual IPOs can be volatile, they don't always lead to immediate broad market downturns.

### 12. S&P 500 & VIX (Daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** VIX decline
**Key Levels:** VIX below 16
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 forward performance since 2010 (N=12)

The VIX (volatility index) has closed below 16 for the first time in over 2 months, which is generally a sign of reduced market fear. Historically, when the VIX is low, the market tends to be less volatile. However, seasonality suggests increased volatility in the coming months.

### 13. S&P 500 June Mid-Term Year Seasonality (Monthly (1950-2025))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** mid-term year seasonality
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 June average price path (mid-term years)

This chart shows the historical seasonality of the S&P 500 during June in mid-term election years (1950-2025). It indicates that mid-term election years tend to bring pain and increased volatility, with an average change of -2.11% and a hit rate of 36.8%. This suggests a potential for a secondary drop later in the year.

### 14. VIX Seasonality (2004-2024) (Monthly (2004-2024))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** VIX spike in July-August
**Historical Comparison:** 20-year average of monthly VIX levels

The VIX seasonality chart (2004-2024) shows that volatility tends to spike into the July-August period. This aligns with the mid-term year seasonality and suggests that while the VIX is currently low, increased volatility is expected in the coming months, which can create opportunities for traders.

### 15. Midterm Election Year Seasonal Pattern (Monthly (1950-2020))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** seasonal downturn
**Historical Comparison:** Average % change for DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000

This chart illustrates the average seasonal pattern for major indices (DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, Russell 2000) during midterm election years (1950-2020). It shows a general downturn in the middle of the year, followed by a rally towards the end. This suggests that the market is currently rotating through a more volatile period.

### 16. DXY (US Dollar Index Futures) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 100.275 resistance, 98.850 support, 96.440 support

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trapped within two ranges, between 100.275 and 96.440. It has been range-bound for almost a year, indicating a lack of clear direction. Currency traders haven't seen much excitement due to this prolonged consolidation.

### 17. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend
**Key Levels:** 7499.90 support, 7580.05 resistance, 7287.75 support, 7441.84 support

The S&P 500 is still showing a generally positive advance-decline line, indicating an upward trend. The market is making higher highs and higher lows. Key levels to watch are 7499.90 as support and 7580.05 as resistance.

### 18. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (2H)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 30339.7 resistance, 29718.8 support

The NASDAQ 100 is continuing to make a series of higher highs and higher lows, despite NVIDIA's weakening. This suggests that while the 'picks and shovels' might be coming undone, the broader tech market is still strong. Key support is at 29718.8, with resistance at 30339.7.

### 19. US500 (US 500 Index) (2H)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 7500.7 support, 7581.1 resistance, 7626.3 resistance

The US 500 Index is showing a series of higher highs and higher lows. The 7500 zone is identified as a very important support level. If it breaks through this, it could signal a change in trend. Currently, the market is bouncing off the 2-hour 50 exponential moving average.

### 20. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (2026-05-29 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** options wall
**Key Levels:** 7600 call resistance, 7100 put support

The Net GEX chart for SPX shows a major call wall at 7600 and put support at 7100. This indicates significant options activity at these levels, which can act as magnets or barriers for price movement.

### 21. Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ (2026-05-29 15:59 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** options wall
**Key Levels:** 750 call resistance, 680 put support

The Net GEX chart for QQQ (NASDAQ) shows a similar options wall pattern, with call resistance at 750 and put support at 680. The 700 strike is notably the most struck put wall, and 740 is the current Monday/Tuesday session's further upside.

### 22. Net GEX All Expirations for TSLA (2026-05-29 15:59 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** options wall
**Key Levels:** 450 call resistance, 430 put support

The Net GEX chart for TSLA (Tesla) shows 450 as the most struck zone, with 430 seeing some puts for the current week's session. This suggests that 430 might hold as support, while 450 acts as resistance.

### 23. Net GEX All Expirations for NVDA (2026-05-29 15:59 EST)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** options wall
**Key Levels:** 225 call resistance, 200 put support

The Net GEX chart for NVDA (NVIDIA) shows it's not doing too well, with puts at 210 and 200 in longer-term strikes. This aligns with the bearish bias for NVIDIA, indicating potential further downside.

### 24. Net GEX All Expirations for IBIT (2026-05-29 15:59 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** options wall
**Key Levels:** 50 call resistance, 40 put support

The Net GEX chart for IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) shows that it has started to come closer to the 40-41 level, which has historically held Bitcoin before. Call resistance is at 50, and put support is at 40. It's currently trading around 41.63 and is underneath the daily 200 moving average.

### 25. US02Y (US Government Bonds 2YR Yield) (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 4.404% resistance, 4.002% support

The US 2-year government bond yield is down, suggesting a potential easing of interest rate concerns. The chart shows a downtrend from 4.404% towards 4.002%.

### 26. US10Y (US Government Bonds 10YR Yield) (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 4.500% resistance, 4.277% support

The US 10-year government bond yield is also down a little, following the trend of the 2-year yield. This further supports the idea of easing interest rate pressures.

### 27. JP10Y (Japan Government Bonds 10YR Yield) (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 2.655% resistance, 2.413% support

Japanese 10-year government bond yields are down a little, but not dropping significantly. This indicates some stability in Japanese bonds despite global movements.

### 28. USDJPY (US Dollar / Japanese Yen) (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend, approaching resistance
**Key Levels:** 160.152 resistance, 159.271 current level

The USD/JPY pair is starting to get close to the 160 level, which has acted as resistance in the past. The market is still watching this pair closely, as a breach of 160 could signal further strength for the dollar against the yen.

### 29. HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 80.98 resistance, 77.66 support

The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is currently rebalancing and rotating, but there doesn't seem to be enough 'freak out' in the air. It's still trapped within a range, indicating a lack of significant fear in the high-yield bond market.

### 30. XLF/SPY (State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF vs. S&P 500) (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 0.0715 resistance, 0.0682 support

Financials (XLF) are not looking good against the S&P 500 (SPY), showing a clear decline. This suggests that the financial sector is underperforming the broader market, which can be a sign of a late-cycle economy.

### 31. XLF (State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF) (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** consolidation, potential lower high
**Key Levels:** 54.91 resistance, 46.67 support, 40.25 support

The financial sector (XLF) has declined again and is still at a 'trap zone' of consolidation. If financials don't make higher highs, it could be a problem for the broader market. This reinforces the idea that we are in a late-cycle environment.

### 32. VTV (Vanguard Value ETF) (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward rally
**Key Levels:** 212.27 resistance, 186.85 support

The Vanguard Value ETF (VTV) has continued to rally up, indicating that other stocks beyond the mega-cap tech names are performing well. This suggests a broadening of the market, which can be a healthy sign, but contrasts with the weakness in financials.

### 33. RSPD/RSPS (Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight vs. S&P 500 Pure Value) (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** risk-on after scare
**Key Levels:** 1.86 resistance, 1.73 support

The American consumer, represented by RSPD/RSPS, still seems to be in a 'risk-on' mood after a big scare. Despite numbers suggesting people are still spending (likely on debt), the market is showing resilience. Debt only becomes a problem when something 'dominoes'.

### 34. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** semiconductor-style day (6% up)
**Key Levels:** 101.66 resistance, 89.32 support

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) had a 'semiconductor-style day' with a 6% increase, which is a beautiful technical move. This shows that patience and reacting to market signals, rather than predicting, can lead to good outcomes. It's continuing its upward trend.

### 35. MSFT (Microsoft Corporation) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout, potential gap fill
**Key Levels:** 480.58 gap fill, 410.61 support

Microsoft has seen a breakout and is now looking to fill a gap at 480.58. While some might draw a head and shoulders pattern, the current price action and flows suggest continued upward momentum. The market has already priced in the good news, and the focus is on future movements.

### 36. TAN (Invesco Solar ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gap up, rally, pullback
**Key Levels:** 73.93 resistance, 69.72 support
**Historical Comparison:** Avis (recent hype stock)

The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) had a good session, gapping up and rallying, but then came back down. This is reminiscent of recent hype stocks like Avis. The speaker warns about risk management in 2026, as hype trains can be dangerous if they don't keep hyping.

### 37. SMH/SPY (VanEck Semiconductor ETF vs. S&P 500) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding strong
**Key Levels:** 0.8000 resistance, 0.7500 support

The semiconductor sector (SMH) is still holding strong against the S&P 500 (SPY). This indicates that the backbone of the market is still intact, and there's no immediate reason to believe semiconductors are 'gone' yet.

### 38. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** volatility at the top
**Key Levels:** 605.67 resistance, 598.93 support

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is showing some volatility at the top, but it's still holding its gains. This suggests a period of consolidation or indecision after a strong rally.

### 39. KOSPI (KOSPI Composite Index) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** plowing higher
**Key Levels:** 8750 resistance, 7922 support, 7000 support

The KOSPI Composite Index is continuing to plow higher, indicating strong performance in the South Korean market. Despite underperforming some other sectors, it's still showing significant upward momentum.

### 40. MU (Micron Technology) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** volatility after upgrade
**Key Levels:** 1000 resistance, 826.16 support

Micron Technology (MU) experienced a lot of volatility after being upgraded last week. This suggests that while there's positive sentiment, the stock is also seeing significant price swings.

### 41. SNDK (SanDisk Corporation) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward rally
**Key Levels:** 1733.75 resistance, 1562.19 support

SanDisk (SNDK) is continuing its upward rally, with no significant changes in trend. This indicates sustained positive momentum in this semiconductor stock.

### 42. XAUUSD (Gold Spot / US Dollar) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rejection at resistance
**Key Levels:** 4593.18 resistance, 4540.34 support, 4333.48 support, 4199.58 support

Gold came back and slammed straight into its resistance at 4593.18. This is a technical supply/resistance area. If it closes above this, it suggests the market might be liking the daily 200 moving average (around 4400). The speaker prefers a series of higher highs and higher lows for gold, which it is not currently doing.

### 43. SILVER (CFDs on Silver (USD)) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** no resistance break
**Key Levels:** 80.4907 resistance, 75.2920 support

Silver is not as strong as gold, which is typical as gold tends to lead first in forming base structures. There is no resistance break at this point, indicating continued consolidation.

### 44. UKOIL (CFDs on Brent Crude Oil) (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** range-bound
**Key Levels:** 112.33 resistance, 91.88 support, 91.47 support

UK Oil is still in a range-bound side, with more reports and news coming out. It's one of the hardest markets due to political pressures. It has a series of lower lows and lower highs on smaller timeframes, but the weekly chart shows it's still holding around the weekly 20 moving average.

### 45. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 79443.63 resistance, 70782.71 support
**Historical Comparison:** 90-day offsets (NASDAQ, Ethereum, BTC combo)

Bitcoin is currently showing a series of lower lows and lower highs, indicating a bearish trend. It doesn't look like it has caught up with software yet, suggesting that the historical correlations might be over. The speaker emphasizes the need to adapt in these markets and slightly nuance strategies.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is showing signs of a late-cycle environment, with financials underperforming and a rotation from hardware (NVIDIA) to software (IGV). There's an expectation of increased volatility in the coming months, aligning with historical mid-term election year seasonality. The Shiller PE ratio suggests significant overvaluation, reminiscent of past bubbles. The decoupling of software from Bitcoin indicates a shift in market dynamics, with a focus on earnings and IPOs (like SpaceX) as key drivers.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Expect increased market volatility in the July-August period.
- Pay attention to the upcoming SpaceX IPO as a potentially monumental event.
- Focus on companies with strong earnings and IPOs in 2026.
- Be cautious with hardware stocks as NVIDIA shows signs of weakening.
- Monitor the financial sector (XLF) for potential problems if it fails to make higher highs.
- Adapt trading strategies to current market conditions, as historical correlations (e.g., BTC vs. software) may be breaking down.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SPACE, NVDA, SMH, IGV, MSFT, QCOM, BIT, TSLA, US02Y, US10Y, JP10Y, USDJPY, HYG, XLF, SPY, VTV, RSPD, RSPS, TAN, KOSPI, MU, SNDK, XAUUSD, SILVER, UKOIL, BTCUSDT, DXY, SPX, NAS100, US500, QQQ, DJIA, NASDAQ, Russell 2000, Ethereum

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-05-31 20:02:14*