# Are We Heading For A Repeat Of 2021?
**Date:** 2026-06-02  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IyY82e9Jc3I)

## Main Thesis
The market is showing signs reminiscent of 2021 with hyper-growth stocks rallying and significant institutional activity, particularly in the hardware and software sectors. While some markets are parabolic, others are consolidating, and there's a potential for increased volatility towards the end of the year, especially with upcoming mid-term seasonality.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. NVDA (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rally with recent pullback
**Key Levels:** 220 support, 240 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** peaks of 2021

NVDA is shown rallying, with a recent pullback. The presenter notes that markets are starting to trade more like the peaks of 2021, and Cathy Wood funds have just purchased back into NVDA. The chart shows NVDA's price action from early 2026 to June 2026, with moving averages indicating an upward trend followed by a dip and recovery.

### 2. SNDK (1M)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** parabolic rally
**Key Levels:** 99 RSI (monthly)

SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) has reached a new metric of 99 on the monthly RSI, which is unusual for stocks or indices. The presenter questions if the market will continue forever or if it's entering a 'twilight zone'. The chart shows a significant upward trend in SNDK's price from 2026 to 2027, with the RSI indicator at 98.44.

### 3. UKOIL (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** head and shoulders (potential)
**Key Levels:** 91.58 support, 113.83 resistance

Crude oil futures (UKOIL) are shown with a potential head and shoulders pattern forming. The price is currently at 94.17, with a key support level at 91.58 and resistance at 113.83. The presenter highlights the price action around 98.00 and 104.00 as potential shoulders, with a drop towards 91.58.

### 4. Market Heatmap (daily)

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** mixed performance

A market heatmap shows mixed performance across sectors. Technology stocks like NVDA (+6.26%), AVGO (+2.96%), MU (+5.64%), ORCL (+9.91%), and MSFT (+2.28%) are up, while communication services (GOOGL -1.04%, AMZN -3.47%, TSLA -4.57%) and healthcare are mostly down. Financials are also mixed. The presenter notes big moves in Meta, Tesla, and Amazon, and the rise of software companies.

### 5. SNDK (1M)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** parabolic rally
**Key Levels:** 99 RSI (monthly)

Reiterates the SanDisk (SNDK) chart, emphasizing the 99 monthly RSI. The presenter questions if this market will continue forever or if it's entering the 'twilight zone', suggesting it's an unusually high RSI reading.

### 6. ARKK, ARKQ, ARKW, ARKF, ARKX (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH (CATHY WOOD)
**Pattern:** purchases into NVDA

Cathy Wood's ARK funds (ARKK, ARKQ, ARKW, ARKF, ARKX) have placed large transactions, purchasing over $60 million in NVDA shares across her funds. This brings NVDA back into what was once considered her favorite stock. The table shows various ARK ETFs buying NVDA and selling AMD and Teradyne.

### 7. Google (N/A)

**Bias:** BULLISH (AI INVESTMENT)
**Pattern:** capital raise for AI

Google has announced an $80 billion capital raise to fund its AI infrastructure build-out, with Berkshire Hathaway committing $10 billion through private placement. This will give Google more capital to scale compute capacity into unprecedented customer demands.

### 8. DRAM (Roundhill Memory ETF) (intraday (15-min))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** volume leaders, potential exit liquidity
**Key Levels:** 68.80 resistance, 67.00 support, 66.00 support, 64.00 support

The DRAM Roundhill Memory ETF shows significant institutional activity ('Wall Street prints') over the last 24 hours. The presenter notes the number 1, 4, and 6 prints near the close, suggesting that if price action goes down, these could be used as exit liquidity. Key levels are marked at 68.80, 67.00, 66.00, and 64.00, with volume leaders indicating areas of high transaction volume.

### 9. DRAM (Roundhill Memory ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** volume leaders, previous pit and volatility
**Key Levels:** 68.80 resistance, 58.00 support, 50.00 support, 40.00 support

A daily chart of the DRAM ETF, showing previous 'pit' and volatility periods (marked as 2 and 3) and recent volume leader prints (1, 4, 5, 6) near the current highs. The presenter questions if tokenization is too expensive or if the AI revolution will hit a bottleneck, especially given the power usage of these machines.

### 10. DRAM (Roundhill Memory ETF) (intraday (15-min))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** volume leaders, potential exit liquidity
**Key Levels:** 68.00 resistance, 67.00 support, 66.00 support

A zoomed-in intraday chart of DRAM, again highlighting the volume leader prints (1, 4, 5, 6) and the potential for these to be exit liquidity if the price drops. The presenter emphasizes paying attention when Wall Street is active.

### 11. NVDA/SMH (1W)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** loss of leadership, potential trouble
**Key Levels:** 0.352 support, 0.2873 support

NVDA has declined versus semiconductors (SMH) and lost leadership. The presenter suggests that losing leadership could indicate future trouble. The chart shows NVDA/SMH ratio peaking around 0.6000 in early 2025 and then declining significantly, with a current ratio of 0.352 and a potential target of 0.2873. The presenter questions if something changed around May 12th-13th, leading to increased volatility.

### 12. S&P 500 Forward P/E Valuation Bands (monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rally, drop, rally
**Key Levels:** 8021 (22x earnings), 7656 (21x earnings)
**Historical Comparison:** 2021 valuation levels

The S&P 500 has rallied, dropped, and rallied again, currently sitting around 21x earnings (7656). The presenter notes that last year it was valued at 23x earnings, which would put the market at 8385. The chart shows valuation bands from 18x to 23x earnings, with the current level at 22x (8021) projected for the end of June. The presenter questions if the rally is over yet.

### 13. MSFT (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH (TECHNICAL REBOUND)
**Pattern:** pit, higher high after lower lows
**Key Levels:** 480 resistance, 450 resistance, 410.92 support

Microsoft (MSFT) saw a huge transaction on Friday, rallying the market. The chart shows a 'pit' (consolidation) followed by a higher high after a series of lower lows, indicating a technical rebound. The presenter emphasizes the 'abundance mindset' in trading, suggesting there's always another opportunity. Key levels are 480, 450, and 410.92.

### 14. MSFT (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH (TECHNICAL REBOUND)
**Pattern:** higher high, pit
**Key Levels:** 410.92 support, 480 resistance

Microsoft (MSFT) again, showing a nice technical higher high after a series of lower lows, and a 'nice pit' where the market burned time. The presenter notes that burning time in options markets often leads to aggressive breakouts.

### 15. IGV (Software Sector ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** back above 200-DMA
**Key Levels:** 200-Day Moving Average
**Historical Comparison:** forward performance since 2001

The Software Sector ETF (IGV) is back above its 200-day moving average after 97+ days. Historically, this tends to lead to further gains, with 6 months later showing positive performance in most instances. The chart shows IGV's price action and a table of its forward performance after similar streaks below the 200-DMA.

### 16. QCOM (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** multiple transactions, rally
**Key Levels:** 175.00 resistance, 150.00 support, 125.00 support

Qualcomm (QCOM) has seen more transactions coming through, with the presenter noting 'heaps of big transactions' over the last 24 hours and on Friday. This is attributed to rebalancing and 'monster transactions'. The chart shows QCOM rallying from around 125.00 to 250.00, with volume leaders indicating significant activity.

### 17. IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) (intraday (15-min))

**Bias:** BEARISH (SHORT-TERM)
**Pattern:** decline after major transaction
**Key Levels:** 41.70 support, 40.50 support

The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw a number one transaction, after which the market moved down. The presenter notes that while it doesn't mean it wasn't a buy, the short-term evidence is still bearish. The chart shows IBIT declining from around 44.00 to 40.00 after a large transaction, with a potential rally later on.

### 18. S&P 500 Performance Following Popular U.S. IPOs (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** mixed IPO performance
**Historical Comparison:** IPO performance since the 70s

A chart showing S&P 500 performance following popular US IPOs. The presenter notes that while the market might love IPOs, the IPOs themselves sometimes decline due to valuation concerns. Historically, post-IPO performance tends to be more positive after two months, but more recently, volatility has increased, especially since 2014. The chart shows various IPOs and their performance over different timeframes.

### 19. S&P 500 June Mid-Term Year Seasonality (1950-2025) (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH (VOLATILITY EXPECTED)
**Pattern:** mid-term year seasonality
**Historical Comparison:** historical seasonality (1950-2025)

The S&P 500 June Mid-Term Year Seasonality chart shows that June is often the 'calm before the storm'. Mid-term seasonality often brings volatility after this period, or around the summer months. The chart shows average price paths and a heatmap of monthly performance, indicating a historical tendency for negative returns in June during mid-term years.

### 20. VIX Seasonality (2004-2024) (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH (VOLATILITY EXPECTED)
**Pattern:** VIX spike after summer lows
**Historical Comparison:** VIX historical data (2004-2024)

VIX seasonality shows that the VIX tends to be lower around this period (June-July) and then spikes later on (August-October). The presenter questions if we will see that spike again this year, noting that historically, the data suggests it. The chart shows average monthly VIX levels and ranges, with volatility typically rising from August and peaking in October.

### 21. DXY (US Dollar Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** trapped in a range
**Key Levels:** 100.275 resistance, 96.440 support

The US Dollar Index Futures (DXY) is trapped between two prices, a high and a low. The chart shows DXY trading between 100.275 and 96.440, with the presenter indicating potential movement towards either level. The dollar is still trapped within a tight range.

### 22. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 7499.90 support, 7599.95 resistance

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is still making a series of higher highs and higher lows on the way up. The advance-decline line is also looking good. The chart shows SPX rallying, with a current price of 7599.95 and a key support level at 7499.90.

### 23. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** rallying off 50 EMA
**Key Levels:** 7536.4 support (50 EMA), 7650 resistance (options high)

The S&P 500 Index (US500) is currently sitting around the 50 exponential moving average (EMA) on the small timeframes. The market has been rallying off this EMA for some time. The chart shows US500 price action with the 50 EMA acting as support, and updated options high and low levels for the next 24 hours.

### 24. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** resilient against 50 EMA
**Key Levels:** 29718.8 support (50 EMA), 30365.9 resistance

The NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) is not quite down to the 50 EMA yet, but it has come off it twice. The presenter questions if it will be a third time, suggesting the next 24 hours could be a big test for these markets as they've been resilient against the 50 EMA. The chart shows NAS100 price action with the 50 EMA acting as dynamic support.

### 25. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** dynamic resistance/support
**Key Levels:** 29131.9 support (50 EMA), 29472.1 resistance

A historical view of NAS100 showing it found the 50 EMA as dynamic resistance, broke it, found it as dynamic support, and continues to move up. This reinforces the resilience of the market against this moving average.

### 26. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** positive gamma
**Key Levels:** 7600 call resistance, 7380 put support

Net GEX All Expirations for SPX shows that around 7600 is now the new call wall. Every 100 points matters on the S&P. The market closed right on the spot price, with 7550 being where the puts are. The market has mostly been in positive gamma for the last couple of sessions.

### 27. QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** slightly above call wall
**Key Levels:** 740 call wall, 720 put support

Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ shows 740 seems to be the call wall. The market is slightly above that, although futures might be pulling it down. The chart shows various strike prices and GEX levels for QQQ.

### 28. NVDA (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** no significant options activity
**Key Levels:** 225-220 support

Net GEX All Expirations for NVDA shows the price around 225-220. There isn't much going on in NVDA options, despite Cathy Wood and others getting into it. The main thing is it came off a key moving average, which will be looked at later. The technicals and narratives are driving the market.

### 29. TSLA (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** speculation of fall due to SpaceX IPO
**Key Levels:** 450 call resistance, 400 put support

Net GEX All Expirations for TSLA shows that many people are speculating this stock will fall due to the upcoming SpaceX IPO, with liquidity potentially moving from Tesla to SpaceX. The presenter is unsure about this, emphasizing that the main thing to look at is if the market has gotten through 450. If it has, that's a new higher high technically, which could bring in positive gamma.

### 30. IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** falling to critical put levels
**Key Levels:** 40-41 put zone

Net GEX Multi Expirations for IBIT shows Bitcoin falling to some critical put levels. If you go out to further expirations, you often get 40. So 40-41, where the market is now, is a pretty important put zone.

### 31. RSPD/RSPS (Consumer Discretionary/Staples Ratio) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (RISK-ON)
**Pattern:** risk-on sentiment
**Key Levels:** 1.73 support, 1.88 resistance

The Consumer Discretionary/Staples Ratio (RSPD/RSPS) indicates that the market is still in a 'risk-on' environment, especially over the last couple of sessions. This shows that the market is still feeling it in terms of moving up. The chart shows the ratio bouncing off 1.73 support and moving towards 1.88 resistance.

### 32. CLF2027 (Crude Oil Futures Jan 2027) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH (HIGHER FOR LONGER)
**Pattern:** resilient, stabilizing
**Key Levels:** 78.20 support (50 EMA), 80.31 resistance

Crude Oil Futures (CLF2027) have seen some movement but remained resilient, stabilizing around $78 a barrel. This suggests oil will most likely stay higher for longer. The chart shows CLF2027 holding the 50 EMA as support, with price action around 78.20.

### 33. UKOIL (Brent Crude Oil) (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** no respect for resistance, structure forming
**Key Levels:** 91.58 support, 98.00 resistance

The spot price for Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) hit resistance at 98.00, but the market didn't seem to care and continued to move down. However, some structure is forming around 91.58, which is being slightly respected. The chart shows UKOIL moving down from 102.00, hitting 98.00 resistance, and then forming a potential W-pattern around 91.58.

### 34. UKOIL (Brent Crude Oil) (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** critical point
**Key Levels:** 91.58 support (20 EMA)

A weekly chart of Brent Crude Oil (UKOIL) shows the market at a critical point around the 20-week moving average (91.58). Many things are happening around this zone.

### 35. XLE (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 57.30 support, 62.00 resistance

The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) has held higher, driven by the longer-term barrel cost. The idea of getting $3 a gallon anytime soon is unlikely. The chart shows XLE making a series of higher highs and higher lows, with a current price of 57.30.

### 36. DRAM (Roundhill Memory ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 68.00 resistance, 56.16 support

The DRAM Roundhill Memory ETF is a popular ETF following the hardware cycle, making a series of higher highs and higher lows. The market is strong towards this stock. The chart shows DRAM rallying from around 40.00 to 68.00.

### 37. KOSPI (KOSPI Composite Index) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** selling off highs, volatile
**Key Levels:** 8900 resistance, 7943.40 support

The KOSPI Composite Index has seen some selling off the 8900 level, about 3.8%. It's been quite volatile since around May 12th. The chart shows KOSPI rallying to 8900 and then pulling back, with support around 7943.40.

### 38. KOSPI (KOSPI Composite Index) (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** aggressive, almost parabolic
**Key Levels:** 8602.43 current, 7213.37 support

A weekly chart of KOSPI shows the market has been quite aggressive, almost parabolic. Considering what software and other sectors have done, it's not as much as one might think. The chart shows KOSPI rallying significantly from early 2026.

### 39. SMH/SPY (Semiconductors/S&P 500 Ratio) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** gap up, consolidation, potential island reversal
**Key Levels:** 0.8013 current, 0.7500 support

The Semiconductors/S&P 500 Ratio (SMH/SPY) shows that semis have not been beating the S&P, which has been holding its own for five sessions. There's a gap up, and the presenter questions if a gap down could lead to an 'island reversal'. To stop a freight train (strong trend), you need a lot more than that. The 20-daily moving average will be an important level. The chart shows SMH/SPY consolidating around 0.8013 after a gap up.

### 40. VTV (Vanguard Value ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** flows into value funds
**Key Levels:** 211.42 current, 207.03 support

Value funds like VTV (Vanguard Value ETF) and emerging markets have seen flows over the last couple of weeks. Again, around May 12th-13th, there were some changes, with flows into software and solar. The chart shows VTV making higher highs and higher lows, with a current price of 211.42.

### 41. TAN (Invesco Solar ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** parabolic, hit supply
**Key Levels:** 60.77 support, 71.13 resistance

The Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) started to move off the May 12th-13th period, making a new higher high and recently hitting its previous supply level. Technically, it's pretty parabolic, running into that level. It was one of the best-performing sectors. The chart shows TAN rallying significantly from around 55.00 to 71.13, hitting a previous supply zone.

### 42. MSFT (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** first area of resistance
**Key Levels:** 465.53 resistance, 376.06 support

Microsoft (MSFT) hit its first little area of resistance around 480. This is a very interesting zone for the future of this stock, coming off the back of software's strong performance. The chart shows MSFT rallying from around 376.06 to 460.52, hitting a resistance zone.

### 43. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** first area of resistance
**Key Levels:** 107.70 resistance, 89.55 support

The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) is doing exceptionally well, coming into its first area of resistance around the 107-110 level. The chart shows IGV rallying significantly from around 80.00 to 107.70.

### 44. IGV (iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** dull market philosophy, huge moves
**Key Levels:** 107.70 resistance, 90.03 support

A daily chart of IGV, illustrating the 'dull market' philosophy. The presenter states that 'never short a dull market', and that dull markets often end up with huge moves, which are often squeezes against people positioned the wrong way. The chart shows IGV consolidating before a sharp upward move, hitting 107.70 resistance.

### 45. HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** no higher high, consolidation
**Key Levels:** 80.98 resistance, 79.84 support

The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) has not made a higher high. Looking through the main bonds, there's not much 'freak out' in the air. The chart shows HYG consolidating around 79.84, failing to break above 80.98.

### 46. VIX (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** low volatility
**Key Levels:** 16.06 current, 21.46 resistance

The VIX is currently at 16.06, up 5% but still well below the 20 level. There's not much 'freak out' in the air. The chart shows VIX remaining relatively low, despite some spikes, and well below the 20-level resistance.

### 47. US10Y (US Government Bonds 10 Year Yield) (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rallied and dropped
**Key Levels:** 4.500% resistance, 4.439% current

US Government Bonds 10 Year Yield (US10Y) rallied and dropped during the session. Bond markets don't seem to care yet. The chart shows US10Y trading around 4.439%, with resistance at 4.500%.

### 48. COPPER (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strength in usable metals, new all-time high potential
**Key Levels:** 6.5618 current, 6.4172 support

Copper is showing strength in usable metals, moving up and almost about to potentially make a new all-time high. This is coming off a weekly massive closure that was first looked at on May 4th. The chart shows Copper rallying from around 6.2000 to 6.5618, with a potential to break previous highs.

### 49. COPPER (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows, spend and infrastructure
**Key Levels:** 6.5618 current, 6.1069 support

A weekly chart of Copper, showing higher highs and higher lows. This usually goes into spend, infrastructure, and build-outs, which explains its current movement. The chart shows Copper rallying from around 5.8000 to 6.5618, breaking above 6.1069 support.

### 50. XAUUSD (Gold Spot / US Dollar) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** pondering, holding its own
**Key Levels:** 4593.18 resistance, 4333.48 support (200-daily)

Gold (XAUUSD) is still just pondering what it wants to do next. It's not above 4600, nor is it below the lows of 4400. The 200-daily moving average is around 4333.48, and Gold is holding its own above this important indicator. The chart shows Gold trading between 4593.18 resistance and 4333.48 support.

### 51. SILVER (Silver Spot / US Dollar) (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation
**Key Levels:** 75.6760 current, 80.0000 resistance

Silver is consolidating. The presenter suggests watching Gold more importantly, as Gold tends to lead, along with Copper and other metals. The chart shows Silver consolidating around 75.6760, failing to break above 80.0000 resistance.

### 52. TSLA (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** trapped in a range
**Key Levels:** 450.88 resistance, 417.40 support, 400.00 support

Tesla (TSLA) came up to 450, sold off, and had a couple of bad sessions. Until it's above 450, there's no positive gamma. There's a lot of neutrality in the options market, and it's not below 400. It's trapped in a range ahead of big news. The chart shows TSLA trading between 450.88 resistance and 400.00 support, with a lot of sideways movement.

### 53. HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** almost higher highs, big sell-off
**Key Levels:** 26062 resistance, 25298 support

The Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI1!) made almost higher highs after a pretty big sell-off. The market is resilient, but hasn't done anything yet. The chart shows HSI1! trading around 25649, with resistance at 26062 and support at 25298.

### 54. HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rallied up, no significant movement
**Key Levels:** 26076 resistance, 24809 support

A weekly chart of HSI1! shows the market rallying up but not doing anything significant yet. Chinese markets are a little bit resilient. The chart shows HSI1! trading around 25649, with resistance at 26076 and support at 24809.

### 55. CSI300 (CSI 300 Index) (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidating near highs
**Key Levels:** 4882.0158 current, 4835.5441 support

The CSI 300 Index is consolidating near its highs. The trend is currently consolidating. The chart shows CSI300 trading around 4882.0158, with support at 4835.5441.

### 56. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (4h)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs, huge disconnection from software
**Key Levels:** 71018.01 current, 70782.71 support, 74473.11 previous resistance

Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has made a series of lower lows and lower highs. It went to the next level of support (71018.01), but it's unclear if it has acted as support yet. The presenter notes a huge disconnection from software (IGV) around May 12th-13th, questioning if the correlation is broken. The chart shows BTCUSDT declining from around 80000 to 71018.01, with a trendline indicating lower lows and lower highs.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The video discusses mid-term year seasonality for the S&P 500, suggesting June is often calm before a storm of volatility in August-October. VIX seasonality also supports this, with VIX typically lower in summer and spiking later in the year. The presenter also highlights the 'abundance mindset' in trading and the importance of not shorting a 'dull market', as these can lead to aggressive squeezes.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Cathy Wood funds purchased back into NVDA, suggesting a bullish outlook from her.
- SanDisk (SNDK) hitting 99 on monthly RSI is an unusual and potentially unsustainable parabolic move.
- Google's $80 billion capital raise for AI infrastructure, with Berkshire Hathaway's $10 billion commitment, signals massive investment in AI.
- NVDA has declined versus semiconductors (SMH), losing leadership, which could indicate future trouble.
- The S&P 500 is currently at 21x earnings, with a potential to reach 23x (8385) based on historical valuations.
- Microsoft (MSFT) showed a strong technical rebound after a 'pit' (consolidation).
- Software Sector ETF (IGV) is back above its 200-day moving average, historically leading to further gains.
- Oil prices are likely to stay 'higher for longer' due to resilience in futures contracts and geopolitical factors.
- Copper is showing strength and is almost at a new all-time high, driven by spending and infrastructure.
- Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) has shown a 'huge disconnection' from software (IGV) since mid-May, with a series of lower lows and lower highs, raising questions about its correlation and future direction.
- The market is currently in a 'risk-on' environment, as indicated by the Consumer Discretionary/Staples ratio.
- Mid-term year seasonality and VIX seasonality suggest increased market volatility is likely towards the end of the year.

## All Instruments Mentioned
NVDA, SNDK, UKOIL, AVGO, MU, GOOGL, AMZN, TSLA, ORCL, MSFT, AAPL, AMD, INTC, CSCO, JPM, BAC, V, MA, BRK-B, GM, HD, DIS, NFLX, XOM, CVX, UNH, LLY, MRK, PFE, JNJ, ARKK, ARKQ, ARKW, ARKF, ARKX, CIBRAS, TER, DRAM, IBIT, SPX, DXY, US500, NAS100, QQQ, RSPD/RSPS, CLF2027, XLE, KOSPI, SMH/SPY, VTV, TAN, IGV, HYG, VIX, US02Y, US10Y, COPPER, XAUUSD, SILVER, HSI1!, CSI300, BTCUSDT

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-06-02 20:02:37*